SharperDingaan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just keep in mind that these things are not the quickest, or most simple, things in the world to do. Most would argue that with permitting, & a signed power agreement, Alderon will be worth more than its current $2.05. But to the mine developer, that ALS 25% stake is also a control block - so there well be some additional consideration. Financing will remain an unknown until it is announced, but some things are already pretty much known. ALS needs 60M for its share of the power line (25% of Kami +JL), it is highly likely there is a JL off-take agreement in the mix, it is highly likely the 25% Alderon stake is up for grabs, whatever is announced will very likely increase both their share price & the value of their other properties in Labrador West, & they will need more cash fairly soon to cover their burn. We have a management that knows what it is doing, so lets give them the room to act for us :) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mungerville My thoughts on JL. Given that Altius owns the surrounding mineral claims their consortium will be proposing a larger mining operation than other bidders. Larger mine = greater economies of scale. Also, given that it is governement officials choosing the winning bid, something that I think is equally important is: Larger mine = more tax revenues for the government. Finally, even if Altius and co are not selected, whoever develops the government lands would surely be interested in acquiring Altius' surrounding mineral rights. N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 i dont get i how alderon can go down after good News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 i dont get i how alderon can go down after good News. I guess it could be a combination of the good news being priced in the period leading up to the announcement (the SP has more than doubled over the last 7 months) and general concerns about the future direction of iron ore prices, eg: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/chinese-iron-ore-stockpiles-rise-record-end-demand-plummets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Alderon have got the go ahead from the Federal minister of the environment: http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/ADVNR20140219.pdf So what are the major milestones left? Power agreement with Nalcor (likely near finalisation), financing (second offtake likely near), rail (haven't heard much about this for a while...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is great news....we expect a lot of developments now. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 now they can talk about the financial stuff of the mine. which will hopefully annouce soon. i see only positive things. mr market thinks negative, because the stock dont moving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 mr. market is thinking dilution....mr maket could be very wrong...as Alderon could now have a for sale sign! Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 mr. market is thinking dilution....mr maket could be very wrong...as Alderon could now have a for sale sign! Dazel mr market is an idiot, thats it :D. iam confinced that alderon gets a good deal. maybe sold or whatever. the only Thing i now is the stock should be way higher than now. we have the Transmission line and the federal approvement. now we only Need the financing and everything is very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 “Danny Williams leaves Alderon board” http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-02-19/article-3621074/Danny-Williams-leaves-Alderon-board/1 Anyone know what would be behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Was he just there to get the powerline and other provincial matters done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Was he just there to get the powerline and other provincial matters done? I hope that's the case, because it does look a bit strange. And even if that was his primary job, why be in such a hurry to leave, before the ink is even dry on reports? I'd like to know the backstory on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 And even if that was his primary job, why be in such a hurry to leave, before the ink is even dry on reports? In fairness, we don't know that he is in a hurry. It's possible that he decided to leave weeks or months ago, for whatever reason. The company delayed the announcement until now, to coincide with the good news. (just an idle speculation... I have no idea what's going on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sherritt took a $466 million impairment charge today on the coal assets it sold to ALS. Maybe ALS got a good price? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/sherritt-cuts-dividend-as-loss-widens-on-coal-sale-charge/article16965567/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Danny's departure is actually a very good sign. The man is very well versed, he has now removed himself from the boardroom - & it would not occur unless ADV was discussing things where he had a conflict of interest. It might also indicate that someone bigger than ADV is going to end up developing the mine, & that it will be a bigger mine than originally thought. Most would argue that the eventual mine would be most efficient were Kami & JL developed together, & that ADV really doesn't have the expertise or financial muscle needed for a development this big. As it is clear that the market sees Kami as being neutral/negative for ADV, net of expected dilution - the logical conclusion is to deal it to a major. Cash, & additional considerations, is a lot more attractive than the alternative risk of mine development. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Having ex-premier Danny Williams (nicknamed "Danny Millions") on the board was a very good thing given his business and political connections. I'm sure he provided extremely valuable advice to help the company gain access to and deal with the various levels of government, suppliers, first nations, and other stakeholders. However, given the current state of Alderon and Kami, I think he wasn't really needed any more. Also, while the guy was very popular in Newfoundland, he was a controversial figure and had his share of enemies especially outside the province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Also Williams and Prime Minister Harper not big fans of each other - to put it mildly. Perhaps he would have been more of a detriment than an advantage from this point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 So taken from Sheritt´s Q4 report: Coal 9,9 million in royalty for q4. Potash 2,4 million. Total 12,3. For the year 50,1 MUSD. Altius gets half of this. Sheritt belive the closing of the deal will be before the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Brian D must be very busy these days. Not hanging around the house too much I suppose. Trying to close the royalty deal, Kami financials, Julliene proposals....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Actually the coal royalty is keeping the same momentum as 2011 and 2012. More or less 40 MUSD per year. However the potash is going down. 18,9 MUSD in 2011, 13,3MUSD in 2012 and 11,2 MUSD for 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The potash producers may have expanded capacity and idled it to support the cartel pricing. Six revenue‐based potash royalties paid by major North American fertilizer producers Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Agrium Inc. and The Mosaic Company. The potash royalties relate to mining operations in Saskatchewan that collectively account for over 60% of Canada’s potash production. http://www.altiusminerals.com/uploads/PR1311-PMRL-CDP-FINAL-Dec24.pdf All three companies expanded capacity. I don't know if the Sheritt royalties cover low-cost operations that were expanded though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Potash- there are several large scale droughts going on right now...California and Brazil. Coal-no one wants to say it out loud but with the nuclear cut back and oil pricing it's use is expanding Iron ore-pricing for the longterm in China means their domestic supply of iron ore production will drop. Gold-it's rising Uranium-a bull market is setting up Oil- there has been a large oil discovery off the coast of Newfoundland...whether or not it makes the NLRC project back in play remains to be seen...but it certainly helps... Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 http://globalnews.ca/news/864942/statoil-says-oil-discovery-off-canada-could-yield-up-to-600-million-barrels/[/img] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 http://globalnews.ca/news/864942/statoil-says-oil-discovery-off-canada-could-yield-up-to-600-million-barrels/[/img] It's sweet crude but the NLRC was planned to process heavy sour. But it's still a wildcard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Sweet crude is lower cost. Very different economics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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