hohi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yes I know, it is absolutely great news for the state and development there. I'm just saying that ALS project probably can't process any of that oil. But I'm no expert, maybe the refinery can be used for processing sweet crude!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Bought more yesterday for 14,50. Don´t know if it was too early, could have been. But 2 great news and share price - 10 % got my attention. Next up, financing of Kami, closure of royalty purshase and Julienne lake. If ok we will see share price of more than 20 CAD this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Bought more yesterday for 14,50. Don´t know if it was too early, could have been. But 2 great news and share price - 10 % got my attention. Just waiting for some cash at the end of the month (in a few days), and I will buy more! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We were shopping as well, & added a 3rd trading tranche. Keep in mind that ADV probably needs to raise around 300M in equity &/or offtakes to finance the Kami CAPEX; & ALS will need to contribute around 75M (25%) before any off-takes. It is highly likely that yesterdays drop related to the pricing of a forthcoming bought deal, that is now very near. At the typical 4:1 leverage you may also want to consider what ADV might do if it suddenly had 1.2B available to it ;) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Alderon concludes power purchase agreement for Kami Project http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alderon-concludes-power-purchase-agreement-140935325.html Alderon Iron Ore announces that it has satisfied the remaining conditions for the confirmed power supply for the Kami Iron Ore Project, as its affiliate The Kami Mine Limited Partnership has entered into a Power Purchase Agreement and security agreement with NLH, a subsidiary company of Nalcor Energy. Additionally, in order to fund the first security deposit required under the Security Agreement, Kami LP has received a $22.0M loan from Liberty Metals & Mining. "The Power Purchase Agreement was a key infrastructure requirement and is critical in securing the previously announced debt financing and we are very pleased to have finalized it," the company said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Alderon concludes power purchase agreement for Kami Project http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alderon-concludes-power-purchase-agreement-140935325.html Alderon Iron Ore announces that it has satisfied the remaining conditions for the confirmed power supply for the Kami Iron Ore Project, as its affiliate The Kami Mine Limited Partnership has entered into a Power Purchase Agreement and security agreement with NLH, a subsidiary company of Nalcor Energy. Additionally, in order to fund the first security deposit required under the Security Agreement, Kami LP has received a $22.0M loan from Liberty Metals & Mining. "The Power Purchase Agreement was a key infrastructure requirement and is critical in securing the previously announced debt financing and we are very pleased to have finalized it," the company said. great. so now if iam right, the last Thing is the financing deal. then everything is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 "At the typical 4:1 leverage you may also want to consider what ADV might do if it suddenly had 1.2B available to it " - Dazel Hopefully this will come to pass. My own game plan here was to acquire some ADV back a while ago with the idea of converting those shares to ALS once Kami seems to be ready to roll. Since ALS had jumped by about 50%, so far I seem to have backed the wrong horse. Time will tell and the metrics are constantly changing. However, I do hold more ALS than ADV but am getting anxious to add more ALS as the price drops back. PS. One thing that confuses me is the retraction in share price of ALS as the good news has been released on ADV. Any ideas as to why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 "At the typical 4:1 leverage you may also want to consider what ADV might do if it suddenly had 1.2B available to it " - Dazel This was us ;) It is more likely that the next step is preliminary financing related to a successful bid on the Wabush mine next door, & the entry of a major; most likely the folks down the road. Thereafter, a consolidation of Kami, JL, & Wabush along the lines of what occurred in the Hemlo goldfields. Re-use the infrastructure; & you reduce CAPEX significantly. You also get a higher, & longer lived royalty, from additional volume. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 PS. One thing that confuses me is the retraction in share price of ALS as the good news has been released on ADV. Any ideas as to why? Has the price action in ALS ever made sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I was disappointed to learn that Altius does not own the mineral rights for the recent Statoil offshore discovery. Seems a rare oversight on their part--royalties don't create themselves, after all. A 3% royalty on that oil project, plus a 3% royalty from the NLRC refinery theoretically owned and operated by Exxon and macgyvered for Statoil/Husky sweet crude would have been a nice, innovative variation on vertical integration in the royalty space. Such news would have spiked Altius to $17 or $18 for sure. Of course, if Kami is not producing ore by next week or no news on Julienne Lake this week, the stock would have drifted back down to $14-$15 with SD pocketing yet another trading tranche with the buy being credited by the board to Dazel (who's probably been buying all along). Just a bit of levity while we wait. 406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 "Has the price action in ALS ever made sense?" No, but I often say that about companies I own. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ah... but there's no profit until we actually sell these tranches ;) ... & that will be a while yet. We're also seeing all kinds of opportunities around the rock, but they will not stay at current levels for ever. The last thing we want is somebody punching a successful hole in the wrong place while we're waiting. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I love it. If we drop to under $13.5 I'll be buying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't know whether you guys follow Sandstorm Metals & energy(sttyf), they had issues with mining companies. Finally, they had to reduce the royalty(?) payment or delay the payment. Sandstorm price dropped every time those kind news released. Will ALS potentially face similar issue? Sherritt International had a bad quarter, reduced dividend, I think that may be the reason for recent ALS price drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I am very familiar with SND. You really can't compare ALS to SND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Sandstorm metals and energy is a highly promotional company that invested in other speculative, highly promotional junior resource stocks. You can see what forum members have said about Sandstorm in the past: www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/snd-sandstorm-metals-energy/ I think Sandstorm had issues because they don't have mining professionals on staff and don't know how to perform due diligence. Sandstorm invested in a number of distressed companies and all of these distressed companies blew up. 2- Altius has unavoidable exposure to speculative, highly promotional juniors due to its prospect generation business. They aren't going to turn around people who want to "buy" their land on attractive terms ("buy" as in form a joint venture). However, Dalton is really smart. That's why he tries to minimize his exposure to these companies via royalties. Of course, Altius is still exposed to the chance of Kami not being financed and built. That's probably the riskiest part of Altius' portfolio. The nickel, coal, and potash royalties are all on high-margin deposits and/or mines. When Altius buys royalties, they tend to only buy royalties on high-margin deposits. High-margin means lower risk of shutting down due to low commodity prices. The Kami iron ore royalty is on a low-margin deposit. (Possibly uneconomic???) Sandstorm bought royalties on low-margin projects and uneconomic projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otsog Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 SND struck out on coal, natural gas, copper, palladium streams by overpaying for a portion of non-producing assets with contributed capital (OPM). ALS has a track record and funded the PMRL total acquisition of producing assets with a mix of retained earnings and debt. The recent Sherritt news doesn't contain anything we didn't already know. Sherritt announced the 100% sale of all coal assets for $946M on 12/24/13. The latest statements form Sherritt at that time (Q3 2013) had a BV of $1,410.6M for the coal assets. That estimates a loss on the sale of $464.60M. Since the sale isn't final yet at YE the loss isn't realized and so they announced the $466.80M impairment. Disclosure: I lost some $ on SND ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 At this point Kami's success is pretty much going to be all engineering. Mining & finance; & scale matters. ALS also does its project financing outside of its capital structure - they aren't just minimizing prospect generation risk. And obviously they will look different when its over. Everybody grows up. The stars are lining up; so lets let management enjoy the process, & come back to us with a done deal when they are ready. Kind of like when your kid first brings round their significant other to meet the parents ;D SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Sandstorm metals and energy is a highly promotional company that invested in other speculative, highly promotional junior resource stocks. You can see what forum members have said about Sandstorm in the past: www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/snd-sandstorm-metals-energy/ I think Sandstorm had issues because they don't have mining professionals on staff and don't know how to perform due diligence. Sandstorm invested in a number of distressed companies and all of these distressed companies blew up. 2- Altius has unavoidable exposure to speculative, highly promotional juniors due to its prospect generation business. They aren't going to turn around people who want to "buy" their land on attractive terms ("buy" as in form a joint venture). However, Dalton is really smart. That's why he tries to minimize his exposure to these companies via royalties. Of course, Altius is still exposed to the chance of Kami not being financed and built. That's probably the riskiest part of Altius' portfolio. The nickel, coal, and potash royalties are all on high-margin deposits and/or mines. When Altius buys royalties, they tend to only buy royalties on high-margin deposits. High-margin means lower risk of shutting down due to low commodity prices. The Kami iron ore royalty is on a low-margin deposit. (Possibly uneconomic???) Sandstorm bought royalties on low-margin projects and uneconomic projects. Thank you fellows. This is very informational. From recent experiences, Sandstorm was the one, the other one was Wabush (MFC industrial) . If the mining company stops production like Wabush, MFC has to write off those asset/royalty from their book, is there anyway they can get some money back? Say for example, Alderon goes production, then for some reason, they have to stop, then ALS's royalty will be worth almost 0, if that happens, how much ALS can get? same for Sherritt Royalty. To be honest, I am glad to see ALS take more royalty assets, but still a little worry about their cash in hands. With cash in hands, I know where the bottom is. But now, if something happens, I don't know where the bottom will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Relax my friends....I will not get into the comparisons...because quite frankly there are not any other than the old Franco Nevada. When Altius starts to get valued like the other royalty companies it will become a relevant comparison. We bought the best management team in the business and so far we get that for free...and we have the luxury of letting BD and his team do the work. When it comes to negotiating Kami financing, Julienne Lake partnerships or the PMRL deal...we know we have the best. It has Altius finger prints all over it and again shows Liberty's faith in Altius from the latest Alderon move. The Alderon team has been built around the former Rio-Iron ore of company of Canada team...they are mine builders and that is what they have previously done at Carol Lake. They have done this before and when the financing comes into place they will do it again. When the dust clears...we will once again realize why we are a partners with these guys because they are the best at what they do. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Speculation for fun. Altius has assets that have been completely forgotten. Uranium stocks of companies that do not have debt positions are skyrocketing right now....yes speculatively on the pending bull market....Altius has a pipeline here as well...So once the deals are done that we are all wishing for....Altius big coal, uranium and other "energy" assets are there for decades... Oil is above $100 and the rest of the world does not have cheap Nat gas...the alternative are clean-uranium and dirty coal....Altius has both. Countries will buy what they can afford. Now if we were speculating like those that are on TESLA now that it has become an energy stock! They are looking at 2028.....it is trading at $1.3m per car produced...but now it's an energy stock?! Just saying....Kami and Julienne Lake have been in the works for almost 10 years...out of the minds of Altius and very very little cost....PMRL took four years to get a deal done. If we get to look at 2028 and not two days from now....I f we were to speculate and not count every penny as we do here...there results maybe spectacular.... Of wait...they already have been over the last 18 years! Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/uranium-nuclear-etfs-heat-japan-210927439.html Altius made a killing during the last cycle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-25/cameco-welcomes-nuclear-commitment-from-japan-in-draft-policy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 disclosure we have added to Altius and held all of our Alderon position. as you know we are longterm investors.... However, there is a major mining conference in Toronto next week PDAC. Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada it is the time you would like to announce a major deal. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 When the dust clears...we will once again realize why we are a partners with these guys because they are the best at what they do. Dazel. Just waiting for some cash to buy more. Probably next monday. :) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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