Guest Dazel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/16/us-china-urbanisation-idUSBREA2F0O420140316 The plan is....for more steel not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/china-cncc-nuclear-idUSL3N0M90LI20140312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/nickel-heads-for-bull-market-as-russia-clouds-supply-outlook.html This should change the Voisey Bay outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303426304579403994148156378 This is the Headline we got from the Article as the media saw blood in the water when it was reproduced last week! "Overstimulus in the past has produced complications and a reform dilemma," Mr. Li said. "Overcapacity in the steel industry is larger than we imagined" These are the headlines that Altius and Alderon are looking for!....both are from the article above. "To reduce China's dependence on foreign suppliers, Beijing last month urged Chinese steelmakers to "continue shopping for ore assets abroad." "China's dependence on foreign iron ore likely will reach record levels, industry officials said, which could help global prices recover from a slump and intensify Beijing's efforts to diversify its sources of the ingredient in steel." All these headlines come from a February 25th Wall street Journal article...not that much has changed in a couple of weeks...other than what China wants which is tightening their grip on financial transactions...It is their national policy to shop for iron ore assets abroad... "we would be happy to oblige". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 RE Genesee: Doing some back-of-the-envelope work I see $283 million CDP + PMRL (with Genesee) cost to Altius and just over a $150 million price tag for Altius to pay ex Genesee ($251 m ROFR). Cash plus a portion of senior debt would get PMRL w/o Genesee, but I don't see this scenario playing out. My sense is, Capital Power is not going to pay $251 million to make a roughly $13 million royalty payment go away. I don't know anything about Cap. Power, it's balance sheet, or borrowing costs, but the basic economics of that transaction don't strike me as compelling. Shut my mouth and paint me red if I'm wrong, but Altius wins either way. I suspect we'll have to wait and see how Altius funds a $283 million deal rather than a $150 million deal. Not ideal industry conditions to try to find some extra capital, but I doubt very much Altius was surprised they got the full CDP. 406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Australia's Rinehart seals funding for $10 bln iron ore projecthttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/australia-royhill-debt-idUSL3N0MH4KN20140321 55M ton mine gets record financing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 They have to build a Port and 335km of railway...not sure about power costs....Posco' contribution is to secure iron ore supply. It seems to me that the steel producers are not as bearish about iron ore prices as the analysts are. The steel producers have everything at stake with their costs where the analysts have been wrong every year with nothing at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roughlyright Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I attribute most of today's jump in Altius price to a marketing email sent out by Dan Ferris. He is very popular amongst many newsletter followers. For what it is worth, here is the link to the newsletter promotion. http://pro.stansberryresearch.com/1403EVITEASR/EEVIQ303/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Almost no volume... There are just no sellers at these prices. Tells you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It will be tough to get to his 400% return without winning "Julienne Lake"! he must have forgot about it? Can't wait for the new target price after they win it! hehehe. dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Roughly right, Thanks for the post...can't help but notice Monish Pabrai quoted...that he gets Extreme Value every month...anyone else get it? Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Altius aside, just a quick question as to anyone in this thread has any experience with WorleyParsons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Actually I was wondering why Julienne Lake hasn't been announced yet. Won't take much longer though... We have some really exciting triggers coming up this year. Just a few... - Julienne Lake announcement - closure of Sherritt deal - ramp-up of potash assets - Kami financing - (JL drilling) - news from Chile alliance - Geothite Bay 1st resource estimate and so much more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 There has been an interesting turn in the market in the cyclical stocks...Happening for a little while but big today: Caterpillar is almost back $100..Joy also.up big today...rio, vale, bhp...de... All Potash producers as well...there is a buzz of new stimulus in China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's a long thread so just a reminder how big the Julienne Lake bid is: If won on the terms Altius has disclosed the royalty at full 21 mta production would be Almost 1/3 bigger than all of The PMRL and Kami royalties combined. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Roughly right, Thanks for the post... +1 :) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Dazel, Mr. Ferris told us "all he possibly could" about whatever company that was he was describing. I guess he couldn't work in JL for prospective subscribers...assuming he's talking about Altius. I do not get Extreme Value, though I'm so flushed after that teaser, I might if I weren't on this board. I'm very interested to see the terms if/when JL is awarded to Altius consortium. For one company to have Kami where it's at in the process and JL possibly on the not-to-distant horizon is something. Getting flushed again...better stop and get back to work (developing a spreadsheet on prospective Altius royalty income over the next five years). 406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Kind of scary to see +12% on such low volume. Nothing to get exciting about, could go the other way over the next days if no news is being published... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havingheart Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The way that the extreme value link is written reminds me of other penny stock newsletters/very promotional etc. It's a little sickening. I find it really hard to believe that the newsletter could make such a big impact, but if the runup indeed consisted of a mom/pop audience that doesn't really understand altius then we'll probably have an opportunity in the future to take advantage of a larger amplitude of volatility if the macro were to turn south. I would love to pick up more shares in a flurry of indiscriminate selling. But if all the repeatedly mentioned catalysts go through...then maybe these investors would also shoot the price into irrationality. just rambling since I'm feeling annoyed that I didn't pick up more shares, I'm becoming more and more convinced of the idea of buying bigger portions instead of nibbling as share price gets lower and lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Kind of scary to see +12% on such low volume. Nothing to get exciting about, could go the other way over the next days if no news is being published... There have only been a few 100,000 (only $1.5M) share days ever. A low volume start to the day picked up momentum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It was more than the Extreme Value sales letter that sent the stock up today. There is a large mailing list (that is free) called Stock Gumshoe - they decode sales teasers (identifies the stocks that are being teased) and rates newsletter writers - that sent out the Altius "tip" this morning to a very large list. Since this email actually identifies the ticker, it is probably responsible for most of today's volume. http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/extreme-value/a-classic-extreme-value-the-next-great-royalty-company-dan-ferris/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Nice thing about this, is that it points to a communication plan going into the April announcements. They have also just evidenced that it will not be possible to amass a large equity position without materially driving up the price. So if you want convertible debt - you are going to have to either accept a lower rate, or a much lower conversion rate (ie: conversion at a higher share price, & probably around a 30+% premium). It is highly likely that once ALS becomes a royalty shop, they are going to need a larger float to accommodate additional institutional demand (index funds). Assuming no further equity issuances, the only way you are going to get those shares is through conversion. Elegant. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 China Plans to Create Iron-Ore Mining Giant. Goal is to Limit Dependence on Imports. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303802104579450302588753602 but... China will lose battle to lift domestic iron ore supply: Hanking CEO http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/hongkong/china-will-lose-battle-to-lift-domestic-iron-26758339?sf2308410=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roughlyright Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It was more than the Extreme Value sales letter that sent the stock up today. There is a large mailing list (that is free) called Stock Gumshoe - they decode sales teasers (identifies the stocks that are being teased) and rates newsletter writers - that sent out the Altius "tip" this morning to a very large list. Since this email actually identifies the ticker, it is probably responsible for most of today's volume. http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/extreme-value/a-classic-extreme-value-the-next-great-royalty-company-dan-ferris/ I went through the site and what I found interesting is that, the site owner, Travis's, third largest holding. He reviews lot of stocks every day. His first two largest positions are Berkshire and Apple. I thought to myself, this small company, Altius is in the company of such illustrious stocks :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moustachio Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Slightly off topic, but that stock gumshoe site is worth the low price for subscription. I've picked up a couple very interesting stocks from the "irregulars" subscription( Africa Oil, and Brazil fast food are two of them IIRC). A lot of the teases are for garbage junior explorers and other stuff that I don't have much interest in, but some gems get teased as well. Travis has also referred to this discussion board a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now