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ALS.TO - Altius Minerals


Guest Dazel

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Interesting that Ferris, in the post-deal pro-forma balance sheet left out the Virginia Mines stake though he included it in the financing page; whereas the Century and Callinan stakes are included on the pro-forma. Could just be a way to model the funding gap that exists with Genesee included in the PMRL/CDP purchase.

 

The Sprott convertible debt does have a cash payback option within six months of the closing, so there is time for Altius to utilize the convertible debt to close, then do some wheeling and dealing afterward to avoid conversion. As has been mentioned: JL equity, publicly-traded equity sale, CDP deals are all possibilities. Royalty income from the new portfolio can also whittle away a small part of that $50 million payback amount over six months before conversion.

 

Found myself on an airboat in Florida swamp country last week. Spotted a couple of very large gators whose size was only evident if you could visually discern at 30mph that those three slight but linear protrusions from the water were all one sizable apex predator. Not tough to spot if a) you're looking in the right direction and b) a lifelong fear of death by reptile serves to sufficiently motivate. Also saw a small dead gator getting picked apart by SD's smiling vultures. There may be a parallel to Altius in there somewhere but I won't reach for it. Just thought I'd share...

 

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Found myself on an airboat in Florida swamp country last week. Spotted a couple of very large gators whose size was only evident if you could visually discern at 30mph that those three slight but linear protrusions from the water were all one sizable apex predator. Not tough to spot if a) you're looking in the right direction and b) a lifelong fear of death by reptile serves to sufficiently motivate. Also saw a small dead gator getting picked apart by SD's smiling vultures. There may be a parallel to Altius in there somewhere but I won't reach for it. Just thought I'd share...

 

;D

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Long ago, in a distant land, I used to take tourists kids out for a bit of Tiger fishing at night.

 

Shine your light on the water, & those spots you see are the reflective patches on the sides of small Tiger fish as they jump out of the water in response to the light. Cast your line over there; & sure enough we would catch something putting up a fight worthy of its name. Reeling it in to the net, our tourist would suddenly discover that it was a juvenile crocodile with snapping teeth - to which you promptly cut the line, & tipped the boat! After everybody dried off ... you all went looking for another tourist kid.

 

Worked great until some idiot cast where the reflections were wide apart, the boat moved by itself towards the reflections, & papa croc thought he would have a go at trying for any live bait that he could bump out of the boat. Whole new respect for crocodiles!

 

SD

 

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The election in Quebec yesterday could be a good thing for Altius and its partners in the mid to long term since it probably means a better investment climate for miners and putting back the 'Plan Nord' on tracks without extra uncertainty on higher taxes and royalties and such.

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Guest Dazel

 

There are only sharks where I am.....they might be related to Dalton!

 

All the best to those in Toronto meeting up....and Gio there is no women in the World like Canadian Women!

 

Dazel.

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Guest Dazel

http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

 

We are back to $120 USD iron price....on huge volumes in China in March or we would be higher...very good news indeed.

 

Liberty agreed-The Liberals are very pro mining and Quebec dropped the ball  the last couple of years. I would

expect them to try to ratify those mistakes immediately. Labrador is very much effected by this and the Chinese and others

will be much more content with spending large sums in a better political environment.

 

Dazel

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There are only sharks where I am.....they might be related to Dalton!

 

All the best to those in Toronto meeting up....and Gio there is no women in the World like Canadian Women!

 

Dazel.

 

Hi Dazel,

I agree 100%: Canadian Women are wonderful!!

Unfortunately, I invested my short time in Toronto unwisely… I spent it giving some good advices (see picture in attachment), instead of chasing after some beautiful gals… ;D ;D ;D

 

Cheers!

 

Gio

Toronto-20140409-00226.thumb.jpg.66d763e6b5975484432e162d8d99a56b.jpg

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Guest Dazel

Gio,

 

It looks as though you have some more cash to spend....your timing may work out in picking up more Altius shares as we all are...

the fundamental difference in Dalton vs. Brindle is that post PMRL Altiius will trade as a royalty company. If Dalton were to retire (he is young so not likley but unforseen events do happen)...post PMRL and Kami Royalties...it would not be that huge a deal to valuation at Altius. The long life royalties Altius will hold will be valued accordingly without any further work.

 

In other words, a monkey could run the business...however, with Dalton we have a great business and an alchemist. A combination that is so rare I have never had a chance to buy it (always too expensive). Their is a reason that Franco Nevada trades and traded for 40 times earnings...because they returned 40% a year for 20 years...you had to pay up to buy the great royalty business they were running (this was in the 80's and 90's when commodities were truly depressed) however the valuation proved to be a fair price.

 

This is what the future at Altius look like....most will wait for the deals to finish and "pay up" at that point on greater visibility...that is why we are $15 not $25.

 

Dazel

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Gio,

 

It looks as though you have some more cash to spend....your timing may work out in picking up more Altius shares as we all are...

the fundamental difference in Dalton vs. Brindle is that post PMRL Altiius will trade as a royalty company. If Dalton were to retire (he is young so not likley but unforseen events do happen)...post PMRL and Kami Royalties...it would not be that huge a deal to valuation at Altius. The long life royalties Altius will hold will be valued accordingly without any further work.

 

In other words, a monkey could run the business...however, with Dalton we have a great business and an alchemist. A combination that is so rare I have never had a chance to buy it (always too expensive). Their is a reason that Franco Nevada trades and traded for 40 times earnings...because they returned 40% a year for 20 years...you had to pay up to buy the great royalty business they were running (this was in the 80's and 90's when commodities were truly depressed) however the valuation proved to be a fair price.

 

This is what the future at Altius look like....most will wait for the deals to finish and "pay up" at that point on greater visibility...that is why we are $15 not $25.

 

Dazel

 

Dazel,

thank you! :)

 

I already have a substantial position in Altius… I have still room to average down, therefore I will most probably buy some more… Yet, today is a “bad” day. And I prefer not to make buying decisions the same day I have made such a difficult selling decision…

 

Gio

 

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Guest Dazel

 

Gio,

 

Set backs are part of this world...roll with the punch's....they also have a strange way of creating opportunity because great investors and great people have a way of changing their minds. You may make the greatest investment of your life with your next allocation. You would not have had that opportunity if Brindle had held on for another year or two.

Move on my friend...life is short.

 

Dazel.

 

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it seems nobody likes iron ore now.  Australia has huge amount iron ore planned or been on production, will that cause iron ore price to go down this year? The forecast is very bearish. 

 

The good news is

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/11/us-china-investmentgrade-idUSBREA3929920140411

 

Alderon may borrow $999.99M from Chinese banks/firms without too much restrictions.

 

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Wow, great great news and Mr. Market gives me the opportunity to buy up even more ALS.

 

I'm curious, if you guys don't mind disclosing, how big appr is your portfolio weighing in ALS?

 

Too big, but this to me is just a no-brainer. Especially after todays news release.

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Dazel,

 

What new information do you need? The word "exclusive" in the fourth line of the press release is pretty important.

 

So they seem to be the only group selected by the government to enter into final stage negotiations. That looks like what we have been waiting for to me.

 

"Enter Into Exclusive, Final Stage Negotiations"

 

ALS is the only player left in the final stage of the game? So we will see another "alderon" soon.  Who will run the new "alderon"???

 

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