roundball100 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ... Modesty prevents me from pointing to my own 12 year annualized return - 34%. broxburnboy - congrats. I hope you are doing this as a full-time activity. I would be a shame for you to be wasting time working for someone else (and if you are doing this part-time, even more humbling to the rest of us who can only dream of these returns on a consistent basis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Myth,in brokerage account it is just margin(50% is max). The leaps/option is only for market index.The option market has very light volumn (200-300 contract / day).We also have warrant which have about 1-5 year life. Some guy that i know use mortgage/overdraft from bank and put that into margin account .That's what I call over lerevage.If the pos soar,we can ask for more margin also. And mostly here ,we only long for stocks, the short is allowed but limited to few stocks and limited volumn. I sold all my pos in thailand back in 2008 and decide to invest aboard in 2009. It was just allowed by Bank of Thailand to invest oversea. My performance is laggard comparing to my friends who are in thai market.Since 2008,the market has been hot.Some stock up 4-5 times within a few months and never fall back since then. I smell the bubble becauses the market is expensive.PE ratio is 20 and people feel they can get 30-40% return a year easily. US market is now cheaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think this is why Buffett ssid he would get much higher returns (50%) with a smalller pot of money and how personally I have been able to outperform by about 19% per year over the past 10 years. I am surprised by how may "wipe-outs" I have had and still performed well. If could avoid just half of my "wipe-outs" (typically highly levered financial firms), I would have done better. My 5 year average of 26% hopefully is indicative of this. But comparing my funds to others managing money is comparing apples and oranges as I don't think many clients would be willing to deal with the odd small securities (many of my holdings trade less than amount I hold in the account) and LEAPs and I know I don't have liquidity and could not provide immediate redemption with many of these. If these techniques of concentration and neglect cannot be implemented by professionals then the only folks left are individuals that are the "do-it-yourself" types which would attracted to this board. Maybe someday this inefficiency will be arbitraged away when there are enough "do-it-yourselfers" doing this. I do enjoy the experts and academics who make our job easier by discouraging the "do-it-yourselfers". Finally, these techniques are not rocket science and do not require a high IQ (a high IQ may be a handicap) to implement. What suprises is that small investors have no idea of the advantages they are giving up by sending their money to mutual fund managers who are playing Andre Aggasi versus thier option to play the "bumb" next door. Packer My story is almost the same as yours. I have an average annual compounded rate of return of 20% for the last 11 years. So if someone ask me, yes it is possible for the average investor to have some kind of exceptionnal return, my rate of return is not bs, it is real. That being said, you cannot manage other people money the way I did manage my money. Over all those years, I always had between 5 and 15 stocks only. Most of the stocks I bought were small caps, and during those years, at many times, it happened that 2 or 3 stocks were representing 40% to 70% of my portfolio. Right now, I have 3 stocks that represent 67% of my portfolio. (FTP, TVA.B, GBT.A) The other thing is that I have a passion for stocks, I bought my first stock 25 years ago when I was 15... So reading about stocks and searching for the next homerun is not a job for me, its a passion. It is clearly not the case for 99% of the people I know. For most people, investing is one of the most boring things they can do. ECCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=119442 Warren Buffett: How To Make 50% A Year In Micro Cap Stocks- "...I called anything below $100 million a micro cap. Morningstar says there are 6,260 domestic U.S. stocks. 2,871 of those are micro caps. That’s 46% of all U.S. stocks. By ruling out stocks below $100 million, you’re limiting yourself to handicapping just 54% of all races. And you’re playing against probably 90% of professional handicappers. Yikes. Wouldn’t you rather bet just the 46% of races that only maybe 10% of professional investors spend their time on?" Makes sense. For those not familiar with Kuppy- http://adventuresincapitalism.com/post/2010/03/21/Why-Invest-In-Smaller-Companies.aspx has good explanation why it is worth paying attention (+ $$$) for small company. I have read these ideas before but I seem to always stay in mid cap range which explains my returns. I will keep more than an open mind to microcaps in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 North America feels grey and depressed and Europe even worse. I'm about to go back to Sydney for a month (leaving Feb 13th). The past few years I've been going to Sydney for a month, but the past two years especially that I've done this trip I have noticed that it's a vacation from the Depression -- you leave North America, then 14 hrs later you are walking off the plane and it's not only the middle of summer, but it's 2006 again! The mood of everyone around you absolutely makes an impact on how you feel. Economically, I am doing great but living in North America I feel like times are bad -- but that's because everybody else is uneasy and I get dragged down by it. But just hop on a jet and you're in Australia where times are booming and unemployment is low -- it's amazing how your own happiness depends on the success and happiness of everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it's amazing how your own happiness depends on the success and happiness of everyone else. wow, that is a very inspiring statement have fun in Sydney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That being said, you cannot manage other people money the way I did manage my money. Over all those years, I always had between 5 and 15 stocks only. Most of the stocks I bought were small caps, and during those years, at many times, it happened that 2 or 3 stocks were representing 40% to 70% of my portfolio. Right now, I have 3 stocks that represent 67% of my portfolio. (FTP, TVA.B, GBT.A) ECCO This is exactly how I manage other people's money. I have been doing it this way since 1995. Before I ever signed a client, I would tell them that they may end up with a single stock representing the majority of their assets with me, and if they couldn't stand the volatility, I wasn't right for them. I would tell them that I would not sell a stock just because it represented some arbitrary percentage of their portfolio that was "too much." So the years passed with the focus on different stocks at high concentrations--Allied Group(acquired), Verifone(acquired), Reebok(huge dutch tender), Qualcomm, DISH, ViaSat, FFH, CODI, etc. My happiest moment as a manager came at the depths of the market in 2002. By that time, clients had made huge returns, but that year was somewhat brutal, and investors only remember their most recent results. I had been acquiring ViaSat in huge amounts as it fell. Some long time clients freaked out, and left in a huff, including my largest client. On the day VSAT bottomed at 3 or 4, when I was at a low as well, one of my large clients called. He asked me what I thought about the company. I told him that if I sliced it up into the various divisions, each and every division was worth far more than the entire current market cap. He said, "Ok. If you think that, I am sending you $XXXXXXXX, and I want you to buy as much as want." I did. He now has 10 accounts for his grandchildren, fully funded for any possible future education, a vacation home, and a large investment account for charity. You will lose clients when you have concentrated portfolios, but in my case, I ended up with a fantastic set of clients that have been with me forever, and trust my judgement. We have all been rewarded handsomely. In fact, I look forward to calling it quits soon. I'm 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Myth,in brokerage account it is just margin(50% is max). The leaps/option is only for market index.The option market has very light volumn (200-300 contract / day).We also have warrant which have about 1-5 year life. Some guy that i know use mortgage/overdraft from bank and put that into margin account .That's what I call over lerevage.If the pos soar,we can ask for more margin also. And mostly here ,we only long for stocks, the short is allowed but limited to few stocks and limited volumn. I sold all my pos in thailand back in 2008 and decide to invest aboard in 2009. It was just allowed by Bank of Thailand to invest oversea. My performance is laggard comparing to my friends who are in thai market.Since 2008,the market has been hot.Some stock up 4-5 times within a few months and never fall back since then. I smell the bubble becauses the market is expensive.PE ratio is 20 and people feel they can get 30-40% return a year easily. US market is now cheaper King, being that you are a Thai native and invest in its markets, i was curious of your perception of fraud in Thai companies. I find so many Thai companies that trade for incredible valuations, yet i feel that the i can't trust the majority of the numbers coming out of Thailand. In total I've spent about a month in the country, and while i love it, it is immediately noticeable that there are cons everywhere. And i mean everywhere. Even in front of the Grand Palace there were an insane amount of openly played directly in sight of authorities, which accept it. The government seems to not care about cons/fraud even in its most respected locations/circumstances. I was curious if you thought that this accepted behavior extends to corporate circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Myth,in brokerage account it is just margin(50% is max). The leaps/option is only for market index.The option market has very light volumn (200-300 contract / day).We also have warrant which have about 1-5 year life. Some guy that i know use mortgage/overdraft from bank and put that into margin account .That's what I call over lerevage.If the pos soar,we can ask for more margin also. And mostly here ,we only long for stocks, the short is allowed but limited to few stocks and limited volumn. I sold all my pos in thailand back in 2008 and decide to invest aboard in 2009. It was just allowed by Bank of Thailand to invest oversea. My performance is laggard comparing to my friends who are in thai market.Since 2008,the market has been hot.Some stock up 4-5 times within a few months and never fall back since then. I smell the bubble becauses the market is expensive.PE ratio is 20 and people feel they can get 30-40% return a year easily. US market is now cheaper Thanks for the answers. Thats the tough thing about emerging markets. Easy to spot cheap, hard to see overvaluation. I tend to view growth as a call option, so its get tough when PEs get high due to projected growth. I think in the long run you will be proven right. ---- Eric, I totally agree. I look forward to the end of our 7 lean years here, and may move around a bit until it happens. We are 2-3 years in and hopefully in 4-5 years its shining again. ----- Ecco you have some balls. I have just learned how to do this for myself. It would stress me the hell out trying to do it for others. I can deal with 5%-10% portfolio losses in a day. Its a bad day, I shut the pc off and take a walk. May even buy more if I see more upside. But it would stress me the hell off to have people calling me about that. I would have to pull a Buffett and give people no insight into what they are invested in. Ecco are you 2 and 20? Also awesome story. I look forward to some of your stock picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motownsf Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am from Thailand.The emerging market. The market here is very volatile. I knew many people in my value investment forum made a killing in market. One guy made like 2 million baht to north of 100 million baht in 7 year. This guy used a lot of leverage. And one very famous investor icon in Thailand,"Nivate Hemvachiravarakorn"(you can google his name to see how famous he is) .His portfolio up to 1500 million baht from 10 million baht in 13 years (it was Thailand last crisis).His track record is real ,i checked it myself on major shareholder list in thai stock market data. And he wrote an value investment book 10 year ago and still publish an article on newspaper twice a month. He merely uses leverage.Actually he used it once in 2008 because he said there was very cheap stock and he didn't have cash (He is always 100% equity) . He said in his article that it was just about 10% of his portfolio that time. This track record seems to be unbelieavable but it is real.Someone in Thai investment forum also has a track record of his portfolio done by historical data check.And sorry for English I am not native speaker. What is the name of the book that Nivate Hemvachiravarakorn wrote? Cannot find it on Amazon. Always willing to read interesting value books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Valuecfa, what company are you referring to ? I could not find much bargain stock in Thailand right now. You can drop me a PM about the name,I can give you an advice specifically about that comapny. The fraud in listed companies is not outrageous like the decade ago anymore. Most of the listed companies using a big-4 audit firm.The accounting fraud is fewer here comparing to Chinese-listed companies in Nasdaq.I remember there has only just 3-4 big accounting fraud case in previous 4 years.But most problem is in corporate governance area. Most companies in Thailand are family-owned. 50-70% of shares belong to management or chairman. So the transparency is gray not much disclosure like companies in US.It is normal here that the companies has related transaction with other companies that also own by management or major shareholder.And that transaction is not in favor of the minor shareholder.And insider trading is also widely conduct.The share price usually soars before good news comes.But I think all these issue are getting better these day. Motownsf, books written by Nivate are only in Thai. His original book was written 9-10 years ago. Here is the link http://bit.ly/gU6uFR . Other books from him are the aggregated from his columns in newspaper. You can read those column on his blog by using Google translator but quality of translation is not so good. http://bit.ly/fPExoG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Valuecfa, what company are you referring to ? I could not find much bargain stock in Thailand right now. You can drop me a PM about the name,I can give you an advice specifically about that comapny. PM'd the company to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 I wanted to check this guy's website again to read one of his letters and found this: http://www.ticonline.com/ He is now selling his letters for $10 each and yelling how obviously great he is. This is a sad sight! It's like Moore said; I'll never understand why you would host value investor conferences selling at $1000/seat or sell 10-pages long letters for $10 as an investor who gets 15%+ returns on his capital each year. Doesn't make sense at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 I wanted to check this guy's website again to read one of his letters and found this: http://www.ticonline.com/ He is now selling his letters for $10 each and yelling how obviously great he is. This is a sad sight! It's like Moore said; I'll never understand why you would host value investor conferences selling at $1000/seat or sell 10-pages long letters for $10 as an investor who gets 15%+ returns on his capital each year. Doesn't make sense at all! I wanted to check this guy's website again to read one of his letters and found this: http://www.ticonline.com/ He is now selling his letters for $10 each and yelling how obviously great he is. This is a sad sight! It's like Moore said; I'll never understand why you would host value investor conferences selling at $1000/seat or sell 10-pages long letters for $10 as an investor who gets 15%+ returns on his capital each year. Doesn't make sense at all! Tom, it's to create recurring income. If you are living on 1&20 or 2&20, or even only incentive fees, then you may have established too much overhead in the good years, and need that stability during bad years...or it could just be they are screwing with people! ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Buffett and Munger are worth paying for. I've read all of Jim's letters and while they are a good read, I wouldn't pay for them. He's definitely an odd character. Anyone who wants to read his thoughts and strategy on investing in U.S. real estate rentals only need go to the financial webring forum and read the thread there. Plenty of great insights, all free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turar Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Buffett and Munger are worth paying for. I've read all of Jim's letters and while they are a good read, I wouldn't pay for them. He's definitely an odd character. Anyone who wants to read his thoughts and strategy on investing in U.S. real estate rentals only need go to the financial webring forum and read the thread there. Plenty of great insights, all free. Do you have a link to the thread by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Norm, I think you are dead on the money. Investing one's own personal capital is a very different animal than investing other people's money, even if "other people's money" is partly your money. Unless you have a five-year lockup or longer, you cannot do the same things you would do with your own money. In our case, we have NO lock-up! Your partners temperament for volatility is no different than the general makeup of the markets. They may be modestly better if you have investors who have studied a "margin of safety" approach, but nonetheless the makeup will be the same as the general public. The members on this board are no different. There is no way in hell that the average return on this board would be anywhere near 20% annualized...whether you are managing your own money or other peoples money. Just not possible. While you may have a significantly higher concentration of outperformers, not unlike the "Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville", the average would be nowhere near that number. If the markets return 7% long-term, I would expect the average board member to do modestly better at around 8-9% annualized. I hear about all these numbers in personal portfolios, but then where the heck are these people in the money management business? They just don't exist. Only 1% of investment managers beat the market long-term by 3% or more. I don't think that number would be different for the average investor. And I think that percentage would be modestly higher for investors versed in "value investing"...at best 5%. Cheers! Sanjeev, that 1% number is actually 0.5% according to Bogle's research where is where it comes from. Malkiel found 85% of professional managers do not beat the market and Bogle that only 0.5% beats by more than 3%. Anyway, the question I have is what percentage of that 0.5% is made up of value investors? That will be interesting to know and kind of keep things in perspective. Many, including me, seem to think value investment is growing by leaps and bounds. However, if you beat the market by more than 3% and are a value investor then you are a subset of 0.5%. That is not even a minority, it's a fringe group! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 If value investing actually grew in leaps and bounds you would have truly efficient markets. Deals like we are seeing everywhere in finance wouldn't exist. It will never be more than a fringe group. It is more about temperment than numbers. Many large investors were selling JPM yesterday. Did they suddenly realize that trading banks hold complex derivatives on their balance sheet? I hope not. The institutions that sold 15% of JPMs float yesterday are afraid of looking out of step, and losing their jobs. Most people are uncomfortable going left when everyone else is going right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranski Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Regarding reported fund results i read for example that Sprott was rolling over his Growth Fund to another fund so what are the real long term results of a particular fund that evolves? Not saying it is inaccurate reporting, but hard to draw conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Buffett and Munger are worth paying for. I've read all of Jim's letters and while they are a good read, I wouldn't pay for them. He's definitely an odd character. Anyone who wants to read his thoughts and strategy on investing in U.S. real estate rentals only need go to the financial webring forum and read the thread there. Plenty of great insights, all free. Do you have a link to the thread by any chance? You bet, Buying Property In Phoenix, AZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turar Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siddharth18 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Any updates on this guy? Was wondering his 2012 performance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 If 20% annual returns is mediocre for this forum...I'm going to be annoying all of you for tips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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