FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[doughishere]

In Forbes today, my second favorite Epstein (behind Theo when he built the 2004 Sox) with his take on recent events...

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardepstein/2016/04/13/new-deposition-testimony-cuts-the-legs-out-of-the-2012-net-worth-sweep/#5bfb07e13efd

 

I got a story about Theo.

 

So this is right afterthe Cubs sign him, so naturally his contract size and length is the hot topic in Chicago sports circles. anyways,  a buddy and I go out on a Wednesday night and just get trashed. To end the night we go to this hot dog joint famous for its Chicago styles, A place called The Weiner Circle. The Weiner circle is a place where you cuss and be rude and be vulgar to the staff and they are back at you. They have this thing called a chocolate milk shake....from Wikipedia, Customers commonly request a "chocolate shake," which is code for asking one of the female employees to shake her....yadda yadda yadda.

 

Three guys and two girls come in, suits and ties and party dresses....I'm not thinking anything of it. A 4th guy, not with the group hands me his phone and asks me to take a picture of him with One of the suits.

 

I take the phone and as I hand the phone back I ask, a little bit too loud, "Who is that?." Loud enough for Theo can overhear.

 

So Theos buddies are getting food, we just kinda sit in the back and chat. No baseball talk, turns out he had some function with some lawyers from one of chicagos big firms, Kirkland and Ellis I don't know. They were hungry and wanted food.......so we're there and Theo reaches in his pocket and grabs a $20 and asks me "what I think" while flashing the bill. I smile, and say "sounds good".  The wait is so excruciatingly long that he puts it back in his pocket to which I say "I think you can afford it." He looks at me seriously, smiles then just laughs, "your right, pulls the 20$ back out....

 

 

 

Tldr: Theo Epstein ordered milkshakes.

 

[merkhet]

Order Granting Motion to De-Designate Seven Documents. Attached.

 

Judge Sweeney is done messing around. Dropping the boom. Her language here seems to bode well for the Motion to Compel.

 

After careful consideration of the parties’ competing arguments, the court finds that Perry Capital appellants’ request is reasonable and that defendant’s opposition is not well-founded. As a preliminary matter, the court finds that, in light of the oral argument in Perry Capital that is set for April 15, 2016 before the D.C. Circuit, Perry Capital appellants’ request is ripe for decision. Moreover, in its re-examination of the documents attached to Perry Capital appellants’ motion, the court notes that the contents of these documents refer to, among other things, events— including decisions and forecasts—that occurred more than three years ago. For that reason, the court finds that sufficient time has passed to alleviate its initial concerns that disclosure of certain information to the public had the potential to adversely influence United States financial markets. With the passage of time, the court’s initial concern regarding a negative impact on the Nation’s financial markets or financial institutions has dissipated.

 

While the court recognizes that protection of the Nation’s financial markets and fledgling financial institutions were legitimate goals when the court first entered its order, with the passage of time, the potential for harm to the Nation’s markets and then-fledgling financial institutions no longer exists. Instead of harm to the Nation resulting from disclosure, the only “harm” presented is the potential for criticism of an agency, institution, and the decision-makers of those entities. The court will not condone the misuse of a protective order as a shield to insulate public officials from criticism in the way they execute their public duties. Thus, avoidance of “second-guessing” an agency’s decisions several years after the fact, as described by Mr. Watt, is, with the passage of time no longer a legitimate basis to maintain documents under a protective order. The court notes that from the inception of this litigation, the government has consistently maintained that the court lacks jurisdiction over this case because the United States had no control over the enterprises. Taking the government at its word, it is surprising that defendant is concerned with the unsealing of government officials’ deposition testimony.

2016-04-13_Order_Granting_Motion_to_De-Designate_Seven_Documents.pdf

[Guest cherzeca]

@merk  when you argue to a judge about harm, and she not only rules against you but puts harm in quotes, you know you are losing the judge

 

@dough  my son lived in lincoln park area for a year and i would walk past wiener circle when visiting. NO WAY i was going in there. i'll pass the dirty dogs from cart vendors in NYC as well.  but love your theo story

[Scudbucket]

In Forbes today, my second favorite Epstein (behind Theo when he built the 2004 Sox) with his take on recent events...

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardepstein/2016/04/13/new-deposition-testimony-cuts-the-legs-out-of-the-2012-net-worth-sweep/#5bfb07e13efd

 

I got a story about Theo.

 

So this is right afterthe Cubs sign him, so naturally his contract size and length is the hot topic in Chicago sports circles. anyways,  a buddy and I go out on a Wednesday night and just get trashed. To end the night we go to this hot dog joint famous for its Chicago styles, A place called The Weiner Circle. The Weiner circle is a place where you cuss and be rude and be vulgar to the staff and they are back at you. They have this thing called a chocolate milk shake....from Wikipedia, Customers commonly request a "chocolate shake," which is code for asking one of the female employees to shake her....yadda yadda yadda.

 

Three guys and two girls come in, suits and ties and party dresses....I'm not thinking anything of it. A 4th guy, not with the group hands me his phone and asks me to take a picture of him with One of the suits.

 

I take the phone and as I hand the phone back I ask, a little bit too loud, "Who is that?." Loud enough for Theo can overhear.

 

So Theos buddies are getting food, we just kinda sit in the back and chat. No baseball talk, turns out he had some function with some lawyers from one of chicagos big firms, Kirkland and Ellis I don't know. They were hungry and wanted food.......so we're there and Theo reaches in his pocket and grabs a $20 and asks me "what I think" while flashing the bill. I smile, and say "sounds good".  The wait is so excruciatingly long that he puts it back in his pocket to which I say "I think you can afford it." He looks at me seriously, smiles then just laughs, "your right, pulls the 20$ back out....

 

 

 

Tldr: Theo Epstein ordered milkshakes.

 

I know I have ordered many milkshakes myself...don't remember any of them, though.

[Guest cherzeca]

i texted my son and asked why he never took me to the wiener circle for a chocolate shake

 

and he replied haha, cause it's extra thick.

 

raised him right methinks

[doughishere]

I think the dilution argument is somewhat moot because as cherzeca mentioned before, that will come later, after any positive legal ruling. So from a purely price speculation perspective, commons, if history is any guide, should do better (maybe alot better) immediately following a positive legal ruling.

 

as i write this, commons are up 21% vs 1% preferreds

 

That's assuming an ass whuppin' on Friday would lead to a legal resolution. Many a slip twixt cup and lip. If the beating is bad enough, there may be intervening actions before an opinion comes out.

 

+1 on the "intervening actions"

i texted my son and asked why he never took me to the wiener circle for a chocolate shake

 

and he replied haha, cause it's extra thick.

 

raised him right methinks

 

You know. I sit here in bed. Just feel like I've been through a decade long war. I haven't been in this mix that long, heard about this trade though a Third Avenue letter but you know the new recruits are gonna file in here....(can't blame them with th kinda coin...it's why I singled up in this value investing "money" business) but I gatta tell the newbies GO live your life in the sciences or mathematics or medical or something else....this finance shit kills the spirit.

 

 

This is my second "big" trade and I finally feel like my shit is almost together(hint: I'll never feel that way)....with that move the other day I'm a 1% at 31. No job-literally I quit my 9-5 to do this after ggp(heh I guess you could say im an ackman Millionare, at 31) a girlfriend who doesn't understand...I guess you could say I'm an Ackman Millionare....heh.

 

But it's not the girlfriend that botheres me it's the guys/gals/whoever who are capable of understanding that just don't....it's the smart intelligent people who just can't stop looking at that carrot in front of them.

 

You know just the other day I was reading some tweets mocking these boards...whose laughing now? The guys who twittered that will show up on the list of names at the bottom of the web page. Whose laughing now?

 

Sad sack of shit is that I bet he's too behind the curve to figure out this Fannie and Freddie shit that he won't buy in...good for him, he hasn't done the work any investment on his part is speculation......he's still gonna balk...mistake of omission.

 

 

Either way I'm not really mad I'm just trying to say that we are so rigid in our beliefs and that sometimes it pays to be a bit less cynical...heh I should take me own advise.

 

 

I'm not even mad at the lying or fraud, I'm rich and young and have no obligations, trust me I'm not mad, but way kills me is the ability of some people to take take the fucking job of defending the lies just to put food on the table.....that's some shit right there. That's that fucking scares me. The lies I can believe...the fact that the common shares trade but th prefers(who get paid out first) don't trade at par right now...that the type of shit that scares the shit out of me....

 

In the the coloective( the markets are the collective opinion) opinion of everyone, I don't  look at charts, but the fact that the liquidation prefereds are not trading at par vs the common which trade above par scares the shit out of me.

 

Incentive. I guess that's what munger talks about when he talks about"getting the incentive right"....incentivize people to do something and the will do anything.

 

 

How do you deal with that power? The halls of history are riddled with leaders that know that....the halls built with bodies as the mortar.

 

I just don't know what I'm going to do now, "white male American problems" I guess that's the cross I'll just have to carry.

 

 

To the kids reading this, go into the medical or sciences or be a dentist or be a teacher r baseball player, I understand the hypocrisy of what I am telling you, but the investing business only shows the shitty side of human beings.......

 

 

I have fuckimg trader buddies who text me txt me about the trade.....fucking where were you 10days ago.

 

 

In Irish poet once said,a paraphrase perhaps, "innocence is what you get in return after devoting yourself completely to something"...you get no return of such if you devote yourself to this business.

 

 

 

That guy on Twitter called it ego, to much ego he said....it's not ego. It's recognizing reality...it moving and trying to make sense of an insane world. Something simple like recognizeing reality and knowing most people don't.

 

I wish I could be that kid again at the Weiner Circle. My life is ruined.

[hardincap]

Arent we getting ahead of ourselves here? The govnt may have taken one on the chin but this still seems far from over

[Luke 532]

doughishere, recognizing the sin in the world is not necessarily a bad thing.  The more one is aware of sin in the world the more one can recognize, in turn, what is good... and more importantly the very origin of what is good.  Send me a private message if you want to discuss further.

[Guest cherzeca]

Arent we getting ahead of ourselves here? The govnt may have taken one on the chin but this still seems far from over

 

absolutely.  that is why reading @merk's post tomorrow if he can make it to orals (thanks again in advance) and listening to the oral arg audio tomorrow is so important...to make sure that the good trend keeps on keeping on

 

but to get at @doughishere's lament (first, get out of bed), this is a punishing business, having the market agree with you later.  it tries the soul and engenders perhaps a bit too much relief when things begin to go your way.

 

i can honestly say that when i first read lamberth's opinion, my feelings were about on a par with when i learned there was a death in the family.  part is about the money, part is about being told by some party i cant control that i was wrong, when i felt quite certain otherwise.

 

so no premature victory laps for sure.  but a little exhaling is understandable.

[merkhet]

Arent we getting ahead of ourselves here? The govnt may have taken one on the chin but this still seems far from over

 

+1

 

I fully expect the government to be taken out to the woodshed tomorrow morning, but this isn't over until the fat lady sings.

 

@doughishere, I think it all depends on your personality. If you find that "this finance shit kills the spirit," you should pursue a different path. Especially since you're pretty well off. To paraphrase Munger, when you're poor you have to do some stuff you don't like; but if you're rich and you're still doing stuff you don't like, you're bonkers. At 31 years old, you can still find something that's interesting/fulfilling for you.

[Guest cherzeca]

@dougishere

 

other thing i would say is who cares how other people go about their business.  you focus on you (and yours).  if you think there is shoddiness and deception out there, then paraphrasing luke, take that as instruction as to how not to be, and even look to it as a source of market opportunity if you think you can.

 

i still remember first hearing about NWS and saying, that can't be legal, for a private party or the government.  that got me curious as to whether there was an opportunity, not depressed (lol, i wasnt in the name yet or i would have gotten depressed, but you get my drift)...

[Luke 532]

Rep. Mick Mulvaney discussing his recent bill (attached)

[Luke 532]

Rep. Mick Mulvaney discussing his recent bill (attached)

 

Could Congress simply pass a bill with such huge capital requirements that it would effectively kill shareholders?

[Guest cherzeca]

Rep. Mick Mulvaney discussing his recent bill (attached)

 

Could Congress simply pass a bill with such huge capital requirements that it would effectively kill shareholders?

 

would have to read bill.  that explanation was opaque

[Guest cherzeca]

we have 302 pages on this thread, and i spent a little time doing some archaeology, seeing all of the posters who were interested in GSEs from 2011 -2014.  there were a LOT of posters who analyzed the investment quite well, and i am frankly surprised not to see them posting now, as we approach what i believe will be a denouement.

 

are you guys lurking? did everyone throw this on the too hard pile?

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/appellate/oralargsaudio.jsf

 

Streaming link for tomorrow's argument. Anyone know what time it's scheduled for?

[gr33ngi4nt]

http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/appellate/oralargsaudio.jsf

 

Streaming link for tomorrow's argument. Anyone know what time it's scheduled for?

 

9:30am according to this website.

https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/sixtyday.nsf/fullcalendar?OpenView&count=1000

[SnarkyPuppy]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-rally-on-wishful-thinking-1460657539

 

Carney article in WSJ.

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/appellate/oralargsaudio.jsf

 

Streaming link for tomorrow's argument. Anyone know what time it's scheduled for?

 

9:30am according to this website.

https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/sixtyday.nsf/fullcalendar?OpenView&count=1000

 

Thanks, btw, is the streaming working for anyone? I have it on but so far don't hear anything

[tede02]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-rally-on-wishful-thinking-1460657539

 

Carney article in WSJ.

 

I love reading the comment section on Carney articles.

[SnarkyPuppy]

http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/appellate/oralargsaudio.jsf

 

Streaming link for tomorrow's argument. Anyone know what time it's scheduled for?

 

9:30am according to this website.

https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/sixtyday.nsf/fullcalendar?OpenView&count=1000

 

Thanks, btw, is the streaming working for anyone? I have it on but so far don't hear anything

 

Not working for me - anyone else?

[crocodon]

http://www.dccourts.gov/internet/appellate/oralargsaudio.jsf

 

Streaming link for tomorrow's argument. Anyone know what time it's scheduled for?

 

9:30am according to this website.

https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/sixtyday.nsf/fullcalendar?OpenView&count=1000

 

Thanks, btw, is the streaming working for anyone? I have it on but so far don't hear anything

 

Not working for me - anyone else?

 

Nope- can't get it to work. "Stream not found."

[Luke 532]

The fake Tim Howard (I know, I know... don't shoot me) said around 9:00am today that it would not be streamed.  He has boots on the ground at the actual event.

[Mephistopheles]

Well that's a let down

[Guest cherzeca]

@merkhet said he would attend and provide feedback after done.  all phones will be turned off during per court