FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Steve_Berk]

why do you assume trump is better for us? traditionally the republicans hate the GSE's and would favor of getting rid of them entirely. he may have flirted with some investors, but he was also considering corker.

 

Pretty sure Trump is a 3:1 dog to win the Presidency. If you're looking at this from a political angle, I would not have too much faith in a Trump victory. No bone of contention to pick here, just trying to assess what is likely to occur in November.

 

Not from a political angle. If Clinton wins, the odds are still pretty good with the legal avenue. If Trump wins, they're significantly better, so even at 3:1, it makes a difference. That's a 25% shot at maybe 80-90% chance of release?

 

And Trump is coming off his worst couple of weeks, who knows what will happen in the next few months? It might all reverse as HRC is still very much hated.

[Guest cherzeca]

why do you assume trump is better for us? traditionally the republicans hate the GSE's and would favor of getting rid of them entirely. he may have flirted with some investors, but he was also considering corker.

 

Pretty sure Trump is a 3:1 dog to win the Presidency. If you're looking at this from a political angle, I would not have too much faith in a Trump victory. No bone of contention to pick here, just trying to assess what is likely to occur in November.

 

Not from a political angle. If Clinton wins, the odds are still pretty good with the legal avenue. If Trump wins, they're significantly better, so even at 3:1, it makes a difference. That's a 25% shot at maybe 80-90% chance of release?

 

And Trump is coming off his worst couple of weeks, who knows what will happen in the next few months? It might all reverse as HRC is still very much hated.

 

simple. trump would ignore what is right "policy" and go for the money maximizing path.  only a "stupid politician" would destroy value for the US coffers

[Mephistopheles]

why do you assume trump is better for us? traditionally the republicans hate the GSE's and would favor of getting rid of them entirely. he may have flirted with some investors, but he was also considering corker.

 

Because both Paulson and Icahn are (I'm assuming) significant donors to his campaign and potential re-election bid in 2020. If it's helpful to follow the money in politics, in this case it screams in support of GSE release/recap. He did consider Corker, but I'd be surprised if he had any idea of his GSE proposals. But in any case, he didn't choose him. Maybe Uncle Carl disapproved?  ;)

 

In contrast, Clinton is definitely worse for us as her housing policy is likely a continuation of Obama's + ties to the big banks.

[Mephistopheles]

 

if you tell trump he has two pathways, one makes the warrants worth zippo, the other makes them worth >$100B, which do you think he would choose (assuming he doesnt choose the zippo first, buy the warrants for PA, then changes policy...)

 

lol , pretty obvious right? I'm surprised that Obama hasn't taken the "make $100B for the taxpayer" path yet... Probably waiting for push comes to shove from the Courts as we get to see more and more documents.

[rros]

 

if you tell trump he has two pathways, one makes the warrants worth zippo, the other makes them worth >$100B, which do you think he would choose (assuming he doesnt choose the zippo first, buy the warrants for PA, then changes policy...)

 

lol , pretty obvious right? I'm surprised that Obama hasn't taken the "make $100B for the taxpayer" path yet... Probably waiting for push comes to shove from the Courts as we get to see more and more documents.

 

Their narrative, spearheaded by Stegman, is that recapitalization comes at a cost to taxpayers. Translation: by giving up the sweep the taxpayer loses the income. There are restrictions regarding the sale of the exercised commons. It is not that those funds can be used for infrastructure or low income housing.

[Eye4Valu]

I don't understand how they are claiming that losses have been socialized. Clearly more money has been returned than was borrowed, which equals no socialized losses. It's just a stop me if you can money grab.

[Mephistopheles]

I did a limitsd sampling of DC Appeals Court decisions that were delivered in July and August so far, and most of them were argued from Mar-May, but a few go back as far as Oct or Nov of last year. Based on that timeline, we may not get an answer until Jan/Feb. Given the significance of this case,  I'm not holding my breath for it to happen sooner...

 

Hopefully we hear more from Sweeney and Sleet by then. What a drag though :(

[Guest cherzeca]

I did a limitsd sampling of DC Appeals Court decisions that were delivered in July and August so far, and most of them were argued from Mar-May, but a few go back as far as Oct or Nov of last year. Based on that timeline, we may not get an answer until Jan/Feb. Given the significance of this case,  I'm not holding my breath for it to happen sooner...

 

Hopefully we hear more from Sweeney and Sleet by then. What a drag though :(

 

also, for some reason, opinions are released only on tuesdays and fridays.  they are dated the dates of their releases, so it doesnt seem like they are decided whatever day of week and clerk only posts on those days

[muscleman]

I did a limitsd sampling of DC Appeals Court decisions that were delivered in July and August so far, and most of them were argued from Mar-May, but a few go back as far as Oct or Nov of last year. Based on that timeline, we may not get an answer until Jan/Feb. Given the significance of this case,  I'm not holding my breath for it to happen sooner...

 

Hopefully we hear more from Sweeney and Sleet by then. What a drag though :(

 

My wife who has no understanding of investing or law has been predicting that no decisions will come out from any courts until after the election, and depending on who wins the election, the court will rule accordingly. She comes from China so she applies the way Chinese government and court do things to here. I think the Obama administration is becoming more and more like China and Russia, so it is quite possible that her prediction is true.  :(

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

I did a limitsd sampling of DC Appeals Court decisions that were delivered in July and August so far, and most of them were argued from Mar-May, but a few go back as far as Oct or Nov of last year. Based on that timeline, we may not get an answer until Jan/Feb. Given the significance of this case,  I'm not holding my breath for it to happen sooner...

 

Hopefully we hear more from Sweeney and Sleet by then. What a drag though :(

 

My wife who has no understanding of investing or law has been predicting that no decisions will come out from any courts until after the election, and depending on who wins the election, the court will rule accordingly. She comes from China so she applies the way Chinese government and court do things to here. I think the Obama administration is becoming more and more like China and Russia, so it is quite possible that her prediction is true.  :(

 

so, the whole reason this investment "may" make sense is because of the separation of powers, rule of law and independence of the judiciary...which is to say that brown and ginsburg, at least, dont give a rip what the obama administration thinks.

 

let's see if theory=practice

[rros]

I did a limitsd sampling of DC Appeals Court decisions that were delivered in July and August so far, and most of them were argued from Mar-May, but a few go back as far as Oct or Nov of last year. Based on that timeline, we may not get an answer until Jan/Feb. Given the significance of this case,  I'm not holding my breath for it to happen sooner...

 

Hopefully we hear more from Sweeney and Sleet by then. What a drag though :(

 

My wife who has no understanding of investing or law has been predicting that no decisions will come out from any courts until after the election, and depending on who wins the election, the court will rule accordingly. She comes from China so she applies the way Chinese government and court do things to here. I think the Obama administration is becoming more and more like China and Russia, so it is quite possible that her prediction is true.  :(

 

so, the whole reason this investment "may" make sense is because of the separation of powers, rule of law and independence of the judiciary...which is to say that brown and ginsburg, at least, dont give a rip what the obama administration thinks.

 

let's see if theory=practice

 

Chris, that is exactly right. And the core issue.

 

Either the rule of law and separation of powers are real or not. That is, in essence, what we are betting on.

 

Unexpectedly, it has become a less than sure bet.

[muscleman]

I did a limitsd sampling of DC Appeals Court decisions that were delivered in July and August so far, and most of them were argued from Mar-May, but a few go back as far as Oct or Nov of last year. Based on that timeline, we may not get an answer until Jan/Feb. Given the significance of this case,  I'm not holding my breath for it to happen sooner...

 

Hopefully we hear more from Sweeney and Sleet by then. What a drag though :(

 

My wife who has no understanding of investing or law has been predicting that no decisions will come out from any courts until after the election, and depending on who wins the election, the court will rule accordingly. She comes from China so she applies the way Chinese government and court do things to here. I think the Obama administration is becoming more and more like China and Russia, so it is quite possible that her prediction is true.  :(

 

so, the whole reason this investment "may" make sense is because of the separation of powers, rule of law and independence of the judiciary...which is to say that brown and ginsburg, at least, dont give a rip what the obama administration thinks.

 

let's see if theory=practice

 

Chris, that is exactly right. And the core issue.

 

Either the rule of law and separation of powers are real or not. That is, in essence, what we are betting on.

 

Unexpectedly, it has become a less than sure bet.

 

That's true. When I watch how Hillary got out of the email scandal with absolutely zero punishment, I know the system is rigged.

Fortunately we still got Judge Brown's fast and furious ruling, and the MDL panel's ruling for plantiffs, so I kept the faith as I see mixed signals.

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

8/16 decision posted https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/OpinionsByRDate?OpenView&count=100

 

was argued /45.

 

i suppose belichick would say it's on to 8/19

 

EDIT: to be clear, the decision posted today was not perry

[doughishere]

8/16 decision posted https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/OpinionsByRDate?OpenView&count=100

 

was argued /45.

 

i suppose belichick would say it's on to 8/19

 

Off topic. I really like Belichick, Brady and all the Pats. Bill Simmons has a new show on HBO and nailed it.

 

The Deflategate Trial - Simmons v. Rapaport with Judge Joe Brown (HBO)

 

 

I say this as a non-Pats fan.

[Mephistopheles]

Serious question, do you guys want to take bets on decision date? We can even give better odds to the near term dates. Waiting around like this is agonizing, might as well have some fun with it. Anyone interested let me know.

[Guest cherzeca]

Serious question, do you guys want to take bets on decision date? We can even give better odds to the near term dates. Waiting around like this is agonizing, might as well have some fun with it. Anyone interested let me know.

 

but that would be speculation.  and we are investors.  ;)

[Luke 532]

Serious question, do you guys want to take bets on decision date? We can even give better odds to the near term dates. Waiting around like this is agonizing, might as well have some fun with it. Anyone interested let me know.

 

but that would be speculation.  and we are investors.  ;)

 

Hah!

[Mephistopheles]

Sometimes you need to indulge in a vice for your sanity lol

 

So...over/under (before/after) Labor Day?

[Steve_Berk]

I'm in vs anyone who is betting on before labor day. I think a fairer bet would be before or after end of sept

 

Sometimes you need to indulge in a vice for your sanity lol

 

So...over/under (before/after) Labor Day?

[Luke 532]

Sometimes you need to indulge in a vice for your sanity lol

 

So...over/under (before/after) Labor Day?

 

I'm betting before Labor Day... circa 2020.  ;)

[muscleman]

8/16 decision posted https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/OpinionsByRDate?OpenView&count=100

 

was argued /45.

 

i suppose belichick would say it's on to 8/19

 

EDIT: to be clear, the decision posted today was not perry

 

Was there supplemental briefing?

We got supplemental briefing back and forth that ended in late July, so I'd say starting from late July, expect another 5 months, which is next Feb.

[Guest cherzeca]

I'm in vs anyone who is betting on before labor day. I think a fairer bet would be before or after end of sept

 

Sometimes you need to indulge in a vice for your sanity lol

 

So...over/under (before/after) Labor Day?

 

same

[hardincap]

im guessing longer, due to the complexity of the case

[Guest cherzeca]

im guessing longer, due to the complexity of the case

 

same (lol)

[merkhet]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/the-fix-is-out-fannie-and-freddie-heading-for-new-troubles

 

FHFA officials say this controversial arrangement -- instituted in 2012, the very year the GSEs returned to profitability -- make another rescue, however small, all but inevitable. The regulator has quietly examined whether it can suspend the payments unilaterally to build up the GSEs’ capital cushion, among other options.