hardincap Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 from a political angle, its probably better for him to wait until later in the year when he has fully developed a proposal for what to do with the gses going forward. then he can say "we've studied this thoroughly and decided recap is necessary to preserve the health of the mortgage market." what does he lose by waiting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 from a political angle, its probably better for him to wait until later in the year when he has fully developed a proposal for what to do with the gses going forward. then he can say "we've studied this thoroughly and decided recap is necessary to preserve the health of the mortgage market." what does he lose by waiting? dont disagree, but mnuchin may have come along in his thinking enough to know that this could be a "jumpstart" on rebuilding capital, so he would lose a quarter or two of capital building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maybe4less Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 from a political angle, its probably better for him to wait until later in the year when he has fully developed a proposal for what to do with the gses going forward. then he can say "we've studied this thoroughly and decided recap is necessary to preserve the health of the mortgage market." what does he lose by waiting? dont disagree, but mnuchin may have come along in his thinking enough to know that this could be a "jumpstart" on rebuilding capital, so he would lose a quarter or two of capital building Plus if he thinks that his plan (whatever it ultimately is) for the GSEs will help increase GDP growth, he would want to get the effects moving through the economy ASAP. This administration is hell bent on GDP growth and midterms are just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 dont disagree, but mnuchin may have come along in his thinking enough to know that this could be a "jumpstart" on rebuilding capital, so he would lose a quarter or two of capital building only 8-9 months left until zero capital (!), so you may be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 My guess on stopping the div is no better then anyone else's for reasons already mentioned. Sweeping the dividend does just the opposite building capital, reforming GSE's inviting private capital, etc. The one thing that could certainly allow the sweep to go through would be Trump/Mnuchin knowing that tax reform by August is impossible. So if no decreased rate no DTA's written down so can still sweep. But sweeping does nothing to do any of the above and keeps what could possibly be 10-25 Billion of capital out of the GSE's when he says reforming is essential. Interesting conundrum and to a large degree will show Mnunchins hand. The bull in me says the only way it does get swept is if tax cuts are a pipe dream and write downs will never happen this year. But then there is the zero capital by 2018.... He doesnt really have much wiggle room here. I thought I read the budget comes out thurs. Maybe some clues will be in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Right, Hardincap. Berkowitz isn't the only one who hears the clock ticking. Mnuchin doesn't have the luxury of waiting to deal with GSE's until after tax reform happens (nor do I think he has waited). That's why I lean toward him taking simple steps as Cherzeca mentioned sooner rather than later if he can. Doesn't lock him in to a specific pathway but is that much less capital to come up with. Makes sense to me. Which means there is a high likelihood I'm off-base somehow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 @williams lol! @hardincap also 9 months until jumpstart is a dead letter. politics is hard, and i thought legal analysis was hard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 How much time before he starts talking about F&F? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 How much time before he starts talking about F&F? lol I find it interesting he hasnt talked about it once from what I can remember, even while campaigning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 https://www.yahoo.com/news/obamas-final-us-spent-36-million-records-lawsuits-075149807--politics.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Is there even a chance for them to place it in receivership? The companies are making so much money. The job market is at its highest. The companies will be making even more money as interest rates go up. What would be the basis for them to even consider it? Political ill-will. Politics has nothing to do with good outcomes, logic, or solutions. It has everything to do with getting your way and/or making sure your opponent suffers. Self interest. The NWS is immensely profitable for the government right now, why give it up? Mnuchin works for the government now and Trump, who will need every penny he can get hold of for his projects? Why give away the goose who lays golden eggs now every 6 month? I would expect the governement trying to dump FNM/FRE when the housing market goes bad and these entities become liabilities for them. Who do you think would be the best suitors for Fannie and Freddie when the housing market goes bad and wants to dump them? So the gov will keep the money now and then try to find buyers for trillions of dollars of securities when the market turns down? Sounds like a great housing finance plan. I can tell you put a lot of thought into this. I am pretty sure they is how politicians think. They may dump FNM/FRE really cheap, if it is not wanted any more, but now, why let it go? You are correct however that I have not put a lot of thought into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-nominate-goldman-banker-to-no-2-post-at-treasury-1489541585 Anyone knows about James Donovan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-nominate-goldman-banker-to-no-2-post-at-treasury-1489541585 Anyone knows about James Donovan? former GS partner who led wealth management division. important yet under the radar division. he is a joint jd/mba. i am guessing a friend of mnuchin's as well...perhaps someone mnuchin can trust to carry out his plan without too much supervision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 "Mr. Mnuchin and Mr. Donovan will tackle not only changes to the corporate and individual tax codes but also the potential restructuring of the government-sponsored mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desert_Rat Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I could be mistaken but I think that is a Kate Kelly quote. Not from Trump team but still nice to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynepolsonAtoZ Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 "Mr. Mnuchin and Mr. Donovan will tackle not only changes to the corporate and individual tax codes but also the potential restructuring of the government-sponsored mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." I have a hard time grasping that guys from Goldman Sachs will do something that is good for FnF investors. However, maybe the I bankers will make a ton of money handling the sale of the warrants and so on. Did the i banks make much money on the AIG transaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Trump budget note about Treasury... https://twitter.com/DoNotLose/status/842312400326008834 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Trump budget note about Treasury... https://twitter.com/DoNotLose/status/842312400326008834 The language seems vague... It will gives Mnuchin more power and probably end FHFA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Agree that it's vague. FSOC covers a lot of entities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 If they indeed stop the NWS and no divy on March 31, when will we know? In the 10-Q or before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 check the following url on the 31st: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Market-Data/Table_2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 check the following url on the 31st: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Market-Data/Table_2.pdf Got it, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 also notice the dividend payment is already included in cumulative dividends paid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 also notice the dividend payment is already included in cumulative dividends paid But that doesn't make sense because isn't it for the quarter ending 3/31? How do they know how much dividend there will be in the first place? Seems like they are just assuming. I wouldn't take that cum dividend number to mean anything re whether the NWS is reversed or not for this quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 also notice the dividend payment is already included in cumulative dividends paid that's not a biggie. if treasury/fhfa want, they could have dividend paid and then reconributed by treasury for more pref stock, which is the whole point of the in-kind dividend provision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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