Guest cherzeca Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 wall funding: "A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget." none from GSEs?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 wall funding: "A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget." none from GSEs?! That’s an interesting find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 wall funding: "A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget." none from GSEs?! That’s an interesting find! So currently the Tsy is getting few billions from GSE every quarter, what will happen when they let GSE go? They'll have a deficit until they redeem the Sr preferred. How soon does that need to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/imfnews/1_1546/daily/fannie-freddie-recap-and-release-moves-closer-1000049582-1.html After listening to some of the testimony by FHFA nominee Mark Calabria Thursday and then seeing trade group after trade group show their support for the director-candidate, you came away with the sense that he’s got the job. It’s just a matter of when… Now comes the big question: What will Calabria do to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? What probably sealed the deal for his confirmation was his declaration that he will not reduce mortgage loan limits, an edict that warmed the hearts of the National Association of Realtors and other trades. On Thursday, NAR was among the first to issue a press statement in support of the libertarian economist and then all the others fell in line… So, this is what might happen next: Calabria will pow-wow with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Senior Counselor Craig Phillips and come up with a schedule whereby the GSEs will be allowed to retain more than the $3 billion maximum capital buffer they are allowed to have now. But how much? In 2018, the two earned $25 billion. If they’re allowed to keep all of it, in say six years’ time, they’ll have enough of a cash cushion to be released from conservatorship purgatory… Unless, Treasury decides to exercise the option it owns. If so, recap and release will happen more quickly. Of course, there’s Congress to think about… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Does anyone know when the Calabria confirmation vote will happen? I don't think any material news will come out before that, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Does anyone know when the Calabria confirmation vote will happen? I don't think any material news will come out before that, right? From what I've read, after questions and responses, vote is about 25th Feb. I think you're correct about no news. Buy the dips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allnatural Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Source on Feb 25 vote? Thats very quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Does anyone know when the Calabria confirmation vote will happen? I don't think any material news will come out before that, right? From what I've read, after questions and responses, vote is about 25th Feb. I think you're correct about no news. Buy the dips. committee vote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Source on Feb 25 vote? Thats very quick That what I read, it was someone else's reasoning based on the content of the hearing. Apparently in the hearing the committee wanted questions and responses done by 22nd Feb. I expect its right at the end, let me have a listen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Source on Feb 25 vote? Thats very quick That what I read, it was someone else's reasoning based on the content of the hearing. Apparently in the hearing the committee wanted questions and responses done by 22nd Feb. I expect its right at the end, let me have a listen.... Yes, the committee wanted questions by the 19th Feb., and responses no later than 22nd Feb. So any time after that. 25th is a Monday. Not saying it'll happen then, but that would be the earliest. I don't see anything that would hold this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 congressional GSE reform passes right through ms. waters. like your chances?: https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/02/15/maxine-waters-calls-for-rallies-across-america-to-send-trump-a-message-no-fake-emergency/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abitofvalue Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Silly question - if the new directors direct changes without congressional action, what's to stop future Pres Harris or Pres. Warren from reversing the decision and declaring a large dividend to treasury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allnatural Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 If they settle the lawsuits, declare the senior prefs (the vehicle that allows the NWS) fully paid off and redeemed, and recapitalize / monetize the warrants / declare the conservatorship over, i cant imagine any scenario where a future admin can reinstate the senior pfds once theyre gone. it would be past the point of no return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Silly question - if the new directors direct changes without congressional action, what's to stop future Pres Harris or Pres. Warren from reversing the decision and declaring a large dividend to treasury. one reason that NWS has been so difficult to overturn is the discretion afforded conservator under HERA. once conservator calabria switches gears and recap is implemented, this will be accorded the same amount of protection. absent an "emergency" such that there is no new conservatorship, the exit from this one is golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyPuppy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I generally agree that receivership is not in the cards after listening to Calabria's hearing. Just won't happen. The guy is clearing pragmatic and reasonable. Pref prices are truly unbelievable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahug Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Pref prices are truly unbelievable... Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack. But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par. Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Pref prices are truly unbelievable... Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack. But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par. Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal. If common are worth a cent, juniors are worth par. Nothing but par for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
locutusoftexas Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Pref prices are truly unbelievable... Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack. But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par. Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal. You're just messin' with us, so please say something useful or move on. If Bradford is considering shldq (i.e., the common), then he is not running out of steam; rather he has lost his mind and any value investing credentials he might claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midas79 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 wall funding: "A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget." none from GSEs?! At first I thought that meant warrant money, but the bigger omission is the NWS money. That alone would make up most of those costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 the spending bills have been signed and there are no reports that any "jumpstart" provisions were snuck into them. right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 the spending bills have been signed and there are no reports that any "jumpstart" provisions were snuck into them. right? That was what I was gonna ask about. Regarding timing of the next round of events, I don't expect anything big to come before the 19th deadline for asking Calabria questions, but I also wonder if anything material would come before the senate vote? I assume big things before the vote may change the outcome of the vote right? So that puts us at late March. And then 5th circuit aims at 60 days after hearing for the ruling for most cases, so that's also late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rros Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 These 2 versions have no "GSE", "jump", "fannie", "conservatorship", "preferred" or "warrant" in them. https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20190211/CRPT-116hrpt9.pdf https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20190211/CRPT-116hrpt9_u2-.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 thanks rros @MM the attorney who argued collins en banc, David thompson, said that en banc decisions take about 5 months as a mean. makes some sense as 16 judges are involved in reading majority draft, thinking about writing a dissent or a concurring opinion etc I don't necessarily think anything will happen on Admin plan front for a while, until at least after calabria is confirmed. which I am fine with if that happens since trump's going it alone on wall funding is not a good context for what congress will likely think is a go it alone plan in housing finance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahug Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pref prices are truly unbelievable... Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack. But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par. Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal. You're just messin' with us, so please say something useful or move on. If Bradford is considering shldq (i.e., the common), then he is not running out of steam; rather he has lost his mind and any value investing credentials he might claim. Messin' is not my intention. It's a note of caution that there's significant risk. This is much less predictable and has taken much longer than buying run of the mill chap 11 or near chap 11 bonds (done a number of times - ukraine, worldcom, conseco, etc). It's also my guess than many would take significantly less than par for the jprefs given these factors which suggests a price ceiling if one were to add. If I recall the Citi pref conversion was at 60%. Prudence and price information ... I dunno - doesn't seem useless to me but maybe everyone knows everything already. Glen (100% and margined) and Berkowitz (35% concentration and forced to liquidate half) may have lacked prudence. But it's not over as long as we survive. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investorG Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pref prices are truly unbelievable... Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack. But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par. Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal. If common are worth a cent, juniors are worth par. Nothing but par for me. while this might be true 'in the end', it's not necessarily accurate for 'in the mean time' and the latter stage can last many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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