FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[Guest cherzeca]

One major Treasury obstacle/hurdle nearly completed.  Congress passed debt ceiling, Trump to sign.

 

and Mnuchin has returned from effing china

[DRValue]

One major Treasury obstacle/hurdle nearly completed.  Congress passed debt ceiling, Trump to sign.

 

Watched a calabria talk at ginnie Mae, given on 23 July. He said he hoped to see the treasury plan released by the end of the month. So with the budget passed, plan could be any day now.

 

Unfortunately, it was just the video that was posted on July 23. The conference itself was June 13-14, and they were kind enough to print that on the podium.

 

The Treasury plan has been significantly delayed and we can only guess as to why. I don't think it was just the debt ceiling because that didn't really become an issue/crisis until recently.

 

Can you please share the video?

 

 

Its right there isn't it? June 13 - 14. Should've watched and not only listened, my bad. I still think the budget vote was a factor, but we'll see.

[Luke 532]

One major Treasury obstacle/hurdle nearly completed.  Congress passed debt ceiling, Trump to sign.

 

and Mnuchin has returned from effing china

 

Apparently Kyle Bass' highest conviction, as of today, is the prefs being worth par.  Interesting.

 

 

Kyle Bass is working with Steve Bannon on China, who is close to trump. May be nothing but there you go.

[blackcoffee]

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150281324

 

weird

[Midas79]

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150281324

 

weird

 

Not weird, just pure unadulterated bullshit. I have read this guy's posts, he is just an attention seeker off for the next thrill. Tons of bold predictions, never answers specific questions about his numbers, makes plenty of unverifiable claims that (put mildly) stretch credulity. For some reason he developed a cult following but it was never deserved.

[muscleman]

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150281324

 

weird

 

Is this Maloni 2.0?  :o

 

 

[Wiggins]

I have occasionally wondered if there are fake posts that are aimed to make investors in the GSEs look like idiots, playing in to Gasparino's narrative. This post would nicely fit that bill. I'm sure this happens, and it shouldn't matter because it's a free country and the law is the law, but still...

 

 

I personally try to skip over all the massive stupid stuff out there, as best as possible. If the law prevails none of this matters.

 

 

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150281324

 

weird

 

Is this Maloni 2.0?  :o

[blackcoffee]

I have occasionally wondered if there are fake posts that are aimed to make investors in the GSEs look like idiots, playing in to Gasparino's narrative. This post would nicely fit that bill. I'm sure this happens, and it shouldn't matter because it's a free country and the law is the law, but still...

 

 

I personally try to skip over all the massive stupid stuff out there, as best as possible. If the law prevails none of this matters.

 

 

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150281324

 

weird

 

Is this Maloni 2.0?  :o

 

after all this time I think the law may not.

[muscleman]

I have occasionally wondered if there are fake posts that are aimed to make investors in the GSEs look like idiots, playing in to Gasparino's narrative. This post would nicely fit that bill. I'm sure this happens, and it shouldn't matter because it's a free country and the law is the law, but still...

 

 

I personally try to skip over all the massive stupid stuff out there, as best as possible. If the law prevails none of this matters.

 

 

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150281324

 

weird

 

Is this Maloni 2.0?  :o

 

after all this time I think the law may not.

 

 

My theory is that Calabria always knows a negative ruling is coming, so he thought, well, in that case, the judges had better rule on the FHFA being constitutional as well, so he could have until 2024 to finish Admin reform, just in case Trump loses in 2020.

 

[Luke 532]

A few years ago I sent a number of free books to people that responded to the message below with a PM.  I'm doing it again for a movie called The Case for Christ.  Just send me a private message with your address and whether you prefer DVD or Blu-ray and I'll send you a free copy.  Thanks.

 

“the pleasure of being above the rest” does.

See C.S. Lewis, MERE CHRISTIANITY 122 (Harper Collins

2001). Let the word go forth: for however much the judiciary

has emboldened the administrative state, we “say what the law

is.” Marbury, 5 U.S. (1 Cranch) at 177.

 

To anybody reading this post, I'd like to offer a free copy of the book mentioned in the filing, Mere Christianity.  The late author, C.S. Lewis, was an atheist that investigated the merits of the claims of Jesus Christ.

 

You might recognize Lewis' name because he also wrote The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe (as part of The Chronicles of Narnia).

 

Send me a private message if you'd like a free copy.

 

Amazon link of the book: https://www.amazon.com/Christianity-Amplified-Introduction-Broadcast-Christian/dp/B000OESR7K/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1475256965&sr=8-3&keywords=mere+christianity

[Luke 532]

Bloomberg Intelligence thinks Treasury re-IPO plan is imminent (attached).

 

We know the Treasury plan is imminent, but it's interesting to read Bloomberg Intelligence saying it being a re-IPO as imminent. I always figured that was the case that we'd have a re-IPO, but nice to hear a reputable source such as BI (not just Bloomberg, very different) say it's happening.

[Guest cherzeca]

right now, no equity offerings are imminent.  market is worried over china, trade and HK repression.  this too shall pass, but trump is letting his stubbornness on trade risk his other priorities, to say nothing about his reelection.

[DRValue]

As this is looking more and more moelis like, that may explain calabria pushing out the timeline for exiting conservatorship.

My thinking is that a secondary offering at the right share price is out of management's control, they don't control the stock price.

So milestones may look like;

You need this much capital,

You can turn dividends on at this capital level,

You can raise capital however you like.

 

 

[Luke 532]

right now, no equity offerings are imminent.  market is worried over china, trade and HK repression.  this too shall pass, but trump is letting his stubbornness on trade risk his other priorities, to say nothing about his reelection.

 

BI says the plan of the re-IPO is imminent, not the execution of said plan.  I know there's plenty of hair on the execution (as there is with any IPO), but I was simply pointing out the release of the plan itself and the BI saying it will include an IPO.

 

An IPO being part of the plan isn't news to anybody on this board (at least it shouldn't be), but BI saying it's imminent at this juncture bodes very well for prefs.

[SnarkyPuppy]

right now, no equity offerings are imminent.  market is worried over china, trade and HK repression.  this too shall pass, but trump is letting his stubbornness on trade risk his other priorities, to say nothing about his reelection.

 

BI says the plan of the re-IPO is imminent, not the execution of said plan.  I know there's plenty of hair on the execution (as there is with any IPO), but I was simply pointing out the release of the plan itself and the BI saying it will include an IPO.

 

An IPO being part of the plan isn't news to anybody on this board (at least it shouldn't be), but BI saying it's imminent at this juncture bodes very well for prefs.

 

I wouldn't read into this - I think we are having some confirmation bias w/ Bloomberg "Intelligence".  As an example, they missed Calabria as potential successor in this mid-October report:

 

http://www.timelessinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/GSEs_Bloomberg-Intelligence-20181019.pdf

[Luke 532]

I wouldn't read into this - I think we are having some confirmation bias w/ Bloomberg "Intelligence".  As an example, they missed Calabria as potential successor in this mid-October report:

 

http://www.timelessinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/GSEs_Bloomberg-Intelligence-20181019.pdf

 

Good point.  Thanks.

[allnatural]

https://www.boylecapital.com/filesimages/Q22019%207_29_19%20Equity%20.pdf

[Wiggins]

thanks. great read all around

 

https://www.boylecapital.com/filesimages/Q22019%207_29_19%20Equity%20.pdf

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.boylecapital.com/filesimages/Q22019%207_29_19%20Equity%20.pdf

 

Thanks @all. Haven’t heard of mr Boyle. Know his AUM?

[allnatural]

"Today, Boyle Capital manages approximately $250 million of discretionary assets in the firm's various managed accounts."

 

https://www.boylecapital.com/about

[blackcoffee]

"Today, Boyle Capital manages approximately $250 million of discretionary assets in the firm's various managed accounts."

 

https://www.boylecapital.com/about

 

https://www.moelis.com/our-team/page/8/

Landon Parsons

Mr. Parsons holds a B.A. from the University of Northern Iowa and an M.S. from the Krannert Graduate School of Management at Purdue University.

 

https://www.boylecapital.com/people

 

Brian holds a BS in Finance and Economics from the University of Northern Iowa, where he graduated summa cum laude. Brian sits on the University of Northern Iowa Finance Advisory Board and is a student advisor for the Krause Investment Challenge. He was awarded the Chartered Financial Analyst's designation in 2004. Brian is a member of the CFA Institute and the Iowa Society of Financial Analysts.

 

hmm

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

@black.  good catch.  reading mr boyle's write up, I definitely saw resemblance to moelis blueprint, and its use of AIG as a precedent, and I believe mr parsons is the principal draftsperson of the MB

[Luke 532]

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49799-former-freddie-mac-ceo-donald-layton-trumps-treasury-says-gse-reform-has-mostly-happened

In a 17-page paper titled “GSE Reform: None or Mostly Done?” Layton reveals a conversation he had a few months ago in a meeting with an unnamed senior official in the Department of the Treasury who told him: “GSE reform has already mostly happened.”

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49799-former-freddie-mac-ceo-donald-layton-trumps-treasury-says-gse-reform-has-mostly-happened

In a 17-page paper titled “GSE Reform: None or Mostly Done?” Layton reveals a conversation he had a few months ago in a meeting with an unnamed senior official in the Department of the Treasury who told him: “GSE reform has already mostly happened.”

 

I'm thinking that unnamed treasury official goes by the name, Craig

[Guest cherzeca]

Layton:

 

"Summary: Over the past decade, Congress and most housing finance policy developers and

commentators have overwhelmingly focused on reform of the government-sponsored

enterprises (GSEs) in terms of comprehensive reform, meaning major changes in the design and

structure of the housing finance system, which would require legislation by Congress. Because

no such legislation has been passed, GSE reform appears, based on this expansive

understanding of reform, to be the still-unfinished business of the 2008 Financial Crisis. But

with a more limited concept of incremental reform – i.e., fixing the major weaknesses in the

existing system of housing finance – the reality is that almost all of the major flaws of the pre-

conservatorship GSEs have been successfully addressed while the companies have been in

conservatorship. And these incremental reforms can easily be carried forward and completed

to apply to the GSEs upon an exit from conservatorship, even if that exit is done only by

administrative means. On this view, which I share, reform has been “mostly done” already,

quietly and competently, during conservatorship, and so a program of “reform, recap and

release,” if the administration pursues it, is very much in the realm of the possible."

 

bingo