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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.


twacowfca

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LMAO!  Sure didn't expect sharpton to weigh in on this issue.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Sharpton

 

Alfred Charles "Al" Sharpton Jr.[2] (born October 3, 1954) is an American Baptist minister, civil rights activist, television/radio talk show host[3][4] and a trusted White House adviser who, according to 60 Minutes, has become President Barack Obama's "go-to black leader.

 

Really? So this guy is Obama's go-to black leader? Maybe his voice will become important to Obama then. ::)

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Really? So this guy is Obama's go-to black leader? Maybe his voice will become important to Obama then. ::)

 

Yes, really.  Sharpton is a quack and it makes me cringe each time I see him in the news with the title "Reverend" attached (gives Americans a grossly misguided view of Christ), but Obama does seem to give him his ear from time to time.  If Sharpton and Obama are as close as some believe then Sharpton might be a helpful ally of ours (until Sharpton changes his tune).

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Really? So this guy is Obama's go-to black leader? Maybe his voice will become important to Obama then. ::)

 

Yes, really.  Sharpton is a quack and it makes me cringe each time I see him in the news with the title "Reverend" attached (gives Americans a grossly misguided view of Christ), but Obama does seem to give him his ear from time to time.  If Sharpton and Obama are as close as some believe then Sharpton might be a helpful ally of ours (until Sharpton changes his tune).

 

Take a look at this WP article from this past December...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/12/30/giulianis-claim-the-white-house-invited-al-sharpton-up-to-85-times/

 

Giuliani: "I think you missed one very important point. He has had Al Sharpton to the White House 80, 85 times. … You make Al Sharpton a close adviser, you are going to turn the police in America against you."

 

There were a handful of meetings scheduled with Valerie Jarrett, a White House senior adviser who is a main point of contact between Sharpton and the White House.

 

Of those 72 visits, five were one-on-one meetings. One of those meetings was marked as scheduled with the president.

 

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Obama was aware of Sharpton's remarks before he made them.  Obama could very well be greasing the wheels for release.

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It's rather interesting that the FNMAS preferred shares have increased substantially the last few days while the FNMA common shares have gone the other way.

 

I know I've mentioned it here before, but I would be wary of holding the common shares because of the possibility of significant dilution given the lack of capital at the GSEs.

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I know I've mentioned it here before, but I would be wary of holding the common shares because of the possibility of significant dilution given the lack of capital at the GSEs.

 

That's the primary reason I own no common but a large chunk of FNMAS.  I own FNMAS over other series of prefs for liquidity reasons and a narrower bid/ask spread, although I agree with the reasons for owning other series of prefs... I just prefer the liquidity.

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List of depositions (all exhibits redacted, of course):

http://gselinks.com/Court_Filings/Fairholme/13-465-0218.pdf

 

Exhibit 21:  Transcript of the Depositi

on of Timothy Bowler, July 1, 2015 ........................ A246

Exhibit 22:  Transcript of the Depositi

on of Anne Eberhardt, July 8, 2015 ......................... A373

Exhibit 23:  Transcript of the Depos

ition of Ross Kari, July 10, 2015 ................................ A479

Exhibit 24:  Transcript of the Depositi

on of Susan McFarland, July 15, 2015 .................... A572

Exhibit 25:  Transcript pf the Depos

ition of Jeff Foster, July 14, 2015 ............................... A684

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Summary of Cash Receipts and Payments by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from and to the US Treasury.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VcacgYkheoO02jXGpU_v2QDhb2D58HfItClQfghUsSg/pubhtml

 

 

I quickly put this together. Let me know if there any discrepancies.

 

 

Edit: Heres a link to edit yourself.

 

Edit 2.0: Im gonna add some more stuff make it better. For now im just gonna share a non-editable copy so we only get one version to start with.

 

6pm Central. Im beat been working on verifying, formatting this for 4 hours now. Im exhausted. will work on it tomorrow....Fannie may is all correct

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List of depositions (all exhibits redacted, of course):

http://gselinks.com/Court_Filings/Fairholme/13-465-0218.pdf

 

Exhibit 21:  Transcript of the Depositi

on of Timothy Bowler, July 1, 2015 ........................ A246

Exhibit 22:  Transcript of the Depositi

on of Anne Eberhardt, July 8, 2015 ......................... A373

Exhibit 23:  Transcript of the Depos

ition of Ross Kari, July 10, 2015 ................................ A479

Exhibit 24:  Transcript of the Depositi

on of Susan McFarland, July 15, 2015 .................... A572

Exhibit 25:  Transcript pf the Depos

ition of Jeff Foster, July 14, 2015 ............................... A684

 

Looks like McFarland joined Ugoletti, among others, in finally speaking the truth.

http://www.valueplays.net/2015/08/03/discovery-materials-completely-discredit-governments-defense/

 

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Could be a very interesting weekend...

 

I think the most important date right now is August 10th. If the government files a response, they will lose control of the timing in the case (i.e. Sweeney could rule at any time for unsealing depending on whether Fairholme is required to post a rebuttal).

 

Would you go as far to say the government's most logical choices at this point are to either (1) try again to get an extension (delay) beyond the 10th, (2) push to settle or release rather than let Sweeney decide on whether or not to unseal, (3) hope for the best with Sweeney's decision on whether or not to unseal, or (4) other?

 

I would think #1 might not be a possibility since she has already set August 10th as the date after the government asked for August 17th.  It's probably an unanswerable question, but I'd be interested in what you believe are the probabilities of 2, 3, or 4?

 

I think you have the order of preference right, but I think assigning probabilities would be a difficult thing to do.

 

Thanks, Merkhet.  I agree that assigning probabilities is difficult. 

 

It is somewhat exciting when one ponders that outside of asking Sweeney to delay (again), the most logical course of action for the government is to seriously consider release or settlement prior to August 10th.

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Someone should open a new front in Delaware Court just as we have in the Claims Court and District Court. Then there will be 3 separate issues challenged - 1) 5th Amendment violation by the Treasury, 2) Conservatorship/HERA violation by FHFA, 3) Corporate law violation. We just need to win 1 to win the whole thing. i.e. even if it's found that FHFA didn't violate terms of cship or Treasury didn't violate 5th amendment, there can still be a violation of corporate law. Seems like pretty good odds to me.

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Maybe I'm just highly gullible but reading that value play link and its reasoning makes perfect sense to me. Granted it seems like everything I read is published by pro Fannie shareholder outlets, value play, SA, Fairholme, Pershing but I'm having a hard time seeing how shareholders lose this one. I have both common and preferred as I have a hard time arguing against both Fairholmes and Pershing's reasoning. Not sure which is better.

 

I have about 4% of my portfolio in common and preferred and spend more time every weekend thinking it should be more.

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I was really quite impressed by Judge Steele's argument back in july. In a case that is anything but simple, it really simplifies securities law. Plus i think it has the added advantage of really hitting home with any company....if this can happen to this Delaware incorporated company it can happen to any,  not just a GSE.

 

 

That being said. I don't think this is the reason. Tim Howards comments seemed much more rational and much more likely in my opinion.

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