Guest wellmont Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 nobody said apple's business is declining. lots of people saw serious threats to rimm palm and nokia well in advance of the managements. there do not seem to be any visible threats on the horizon right now to apple's business. for example there is no Iphone to rimm's blackberry or nokia's n95 or palm's pre. people have questioned the best way forward for apple from a strategic standpoint. but this is at the margins, and reasonable people will disagree about these things. under most sensible scenarios apple has excess capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 What I want TC to do differently is release a 450 phone that appeals to EMs, and replaces the 4S on their totem pole. An iPhone Nano, if you will. The smartphone upgrade cycle is lengthening, and I just don't see people rapidly upgrading all the time to the latest phone that comes out. The iPhone business is going to slow, and moving to a lower price point is a must. I suspect they're already doing that with the 5C, but will never admit it publicly. Also, they won't do it, but I'd like to see them lower prices on the Mac line, there's so much potential for profit expansion there. Yes, margins will take a hit, but profits will be better and continue to bring the Apple ecosystem to more users. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 nobody said apple's business is declining. lots of people saw serious threats to rimm palm and nokia well in advance of the managements. there do not seem to be any visible threats on the horizon right now to apple's business. for example there is no Iphone to rimm's blackberry or nokia's n95 or palm's pre. people have questioned the best way forward for apple from a strategic standpoint. but this is at the margins, and reasonable people will disagree about these things. under most sensible scenarios apple has excess capital. What? Declining marketshare, declining margins, declining profits, declining ASPS as you yourself have pointed out repeatedly. If they are not declining, what is going on? Are they growing? Are they stagnant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aapl-apple-inc/msg132146/#msg132146 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aapl-apple-inc/msg132146/#msg132146 Actually, you hit the nail on the head with the Cialdini quote. Wonder why your actions are not congruent with your posts? Why ,if you believe that Apple is a good investment, your comments are inky limited to the negative aspects of Apple? Why,when I ask you to post your thesis about Apple, I don't get a straight answer? Think about why I am pushing you and Hardincap to post your thesis. Why am I not surprised not to get an answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 What Apple is trying to do with iBeacon: http://gigaom.com/2013/09/10/with-ibeacon-apple-is-going-to-dump-on-nfc-and-embrace-the-internet-of-things/ Remember when people took Samsung's addition of NFC as a sign of them out-innovating Apple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 What I want TC to do differently is release a 450 phone that appeals to EMs, and replaces the 4S on their totem pole. An iPhone Nano, if you will. The smartphone upgrade cycle is lengthening, and I just don't see people rapidly upgrading all the time to the latest phone that comes out. The iPhone business is going to slow, and moving to a lower price point is a must. I suspect they're already doing that with the 5C, but will never admit it publicly. Also, they won't do it, but I'd like to see them lower prices on the Mac line, there's so much potential for profit expansion there. Yes, margins will take a hit, but profits will be better and continue to bring the Apple ecosystem to more users. The problem for them is to expand their marketshare while minimizing the hit to their margins. For that, they need to differentiate the products that appeal to different segments. As you pointed out before, they are likely to use the 4S as the vehicle for that. They have also started the trade-in program. They might be using those devices to push into emerging markets also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aapl-apple-inc/msg132146/#msg132146 Actually, you hit the nail on the head with the Cialdini quote. Wonder why your actions are not congruent with your posts? Why ,if you believe that Apple is a good investment, your comments are inky limited to the negative aspects of Apple? Why,when I ask you to post your thesis about Apple, I don't get a straight answer? Think about why I am pushing you and Hardincap to post your thesis. Why am I not surprised not to get an answer? you may not have read the book. but that quote describes a character Flaw in people's thinking that gets them into trouble. It's not an attribute. :) I gave you my thesis in Peter Lynch style. You should read him too. He says you should be able to write your thesis on the back of a Napkin. :) which I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 What Apple is trying to do with iBeacon: http://gigaom.com/2013/09/10/with-ibeacon-apple-is-going-to-dump-on-nfc-and-embrace-the-internet-of-things/ Remember when people took Samsung's addition of NFC as a sign of them out-innovating Apple? apple can't make money on an emerging standard like NFC. so they have to make it proprietary, like lightning. lock in = higher margins = Good for the stock. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 As you pointed out before, they are likely to use the 4S as the vehicle for that. They have also started the trade-in program. They might be using those devices to push into emerging markets also. The issue with the 4S is that it is not a fully realized product aimed at a particular segment, but simply an old iPhone and will be seen as that. Next year, when 6 comes out, it will be time to upgrade 5C to the new generation, and sell the 5S internals in a plastic envelope. 4S will, going by past years, have to be retired. What will they replace it with? 5C is going to move down to 450? I think it is unlikely, because then we'd need to replace it at the 550 level. OTOH f you take the 5C's internals and package it into a 3.5 inch screen, with super thin construction, and bright colors, and a 450 price, you immediately get a segmented, new product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 apple can't make money on an emerging standard like NFC. so they have to make it proprietary, like lightning. lock in = higher margins = Good for the stock. :) Might be part of the reason, but I doubt it's a primary factor. Apple uses lots of open standards and contributes to open source projects when they think they are good. They don't seem to think NFC is a good enough experience for their users (they laughed at people bumping phones and such). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 What Apple is trying to do with iBeacon: http://gigaom.com/2013/09/10/with-ibeacon-apple-is-going-to-dump-on-nfc-and-embrace-the-internet-of-things/ Remember when people took Samsung's addition of NFC as a sign of them out-innovating Apple? apple can't make money on an emerging standard like NFC. so they have to make it proprietary, like lightning. lock in = higher margins = Good for the stock. :) IBeacon is not proprietary, it is based on standardized Bluetooth LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aapl-apple-inc/msg132146/#msg132146 Actually, you hit the nail on the head with the Cialdini quote. Wonder why your actions are not congruent with your posts? Why ,if you believe that Apple is a good investment, your comments are inky limited to the negative aspects of Apple? Why,when I ask you to post your thesis about Apple, I don't get a straight answer? Think about why I am pushing you and Hardincap to post your thesis. Why am I not surprised not to get an answer? you may not have read the book. but that quote describes a character Flaw in people's thinking that gets them into trouble. It's not an attribute. :) I gave you my thesis in Peter Lynch style. You should read him too. He says you should be able to write your thesis on the back of a Napkin. :) which I can. I have read the book and explains why you are not willing to discuss your thesis very well. Why are your words not congruent with your actions? If you believe Apple is a buy, how come you don't discuss that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Apple is in a really interesting position re: subsidized vs unsubsidized markets. Check out this article on how the iphone 5s is FREE with contract in Japan, and people are being paid to take the 5c (with 2 year contract of course). http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/09/15/docomos-move-to-carry-iphone-triggers-price-war-in-japan/?mod=yahoo_hs This just shows you what a difficult position Apple is in when it comes to pricing. If all this subsidized money is on the table -- how can they not take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Anybody understand the attraction towards a health/fitness focus for the iWatch? Unless Apple is trying to enter the medical devices field, which I suspect is unlikely, I can't see the retail customer looking for a lot of this stuff, although it is very interesting. http://9to5mac.com/2013/07/18/apple-stacks-iwatch-team-with-sensor-fitness-experts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 AAPL sub $450 today. Did anyone pull the trigger? To answer the question on whether or not Tim Cook is a good manager we will need a few more years. Right now he's living off of inertia. Many mediocre managers live off of inertia for a long time. Not saying he is mediocre, just that the jury is still out. His true leadership qualities will be unveiled when Apple faces a real crisis (such as Y/Y decline in iPhone unit sales). So far the only tough decision that Tim & company have made is to not enter the low-priced phone segment. I think it's a mistake for the long-term viability of the platform. My guess is that they will begin to cut price on the 5c as soon as sales of that device begin to falter. That could be immediately or that could be a long way off. Apple has no reason to cut the 5c price until after they have sufficient market intelligence. If I were a bettin' man, I'd say 5c price cut around Thanksgiving. Probably something like free iTunes gift cards from the Apple store, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 AAPL sub $450 today. Did anyone pull the trigger? To answer the question on whether or not Tim Cook is a good manager we will need a few more years. Right now he's living off of inertia. Many mediocre managers live off of inertia for a long time. Not saying he is mediocre, just that the jury is still out. His true leadership qualities will be unveiled when Apple faces a real crisis (such as Y/Y decline in iPhone unit sales). So far the only tough decision that Tim & company have made is to not enter the low-priced phone segment. I think it's a mistake for the long-term viability of the platform. My guess is that they will begin to cut price on the 5c as soon as sales of that device begin to falter. That could be immediately or that could be a long way off. Apple has no reason to cut the 5c price until after they have sufficient market intelligence. If I were a bettin' man, I'd say 5c price cut around Thanksgiving. Probably something like free iTunes gift cards from the Apple store, too. I'll take that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I think the 5C will sell very well, and will be the largest component of the iPhone mix, while 5S will be the "Pro" edition for who want the flagship. They have already lowered prices in a sense, their main phone now sells for 550 rather than 650. Would any of you guys buy an iWatch? I don't wear watches.....so idk, but it could be cool. I'd like for them to make the Mac line more affordable, they could still keep margins very high and dramatically increase profits. MBAs have been growing strongly, and there is no reason they cannot become dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I'd be surprised if the 5c is selling well, considering the price point. I read that shipping estimates are becoming longer, which could mean fairly strong demand. We'll know when the pre-order data are available. You'd be surprised if it was selling well when you see signs of fairly strong demand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I think the 5C will sell very well, and will be the largest component of the iPhone mix, while 5S will be the "Pro" edition for who want the flagship. They have already lowered prices in a sense, their main phone now sells for 550 rather than 650. Would any of you guys buy an iWatch? I don't wear watches.....so idk, but it could be cool. I'd like for them to make the Mac line more affordable, they could still keep margins very high and dramatically increase profits. MBAs have been growing strongly, and there is no reason they cannot become dominant. Obviously I could be totally wrong -- but I expect the 5c to sell like crazy in the fourth quarter leading up to Christmas -- even if it is not on fire out of the gate. The people who buy out of the gate are more diehard, etc -- don't care about price -- they're going to want the 5S. So I wouldn't be surprised with lukewarm opening weekend sales on the 5c (relative to the 5 last year, but I expect it to outsell to an enormous degree the 4s numbers from last year, but I expect sales to pick up for the more casual buyer/gift giver/(parent buying for teen etc.). Only Apple knows the exact mix over the last year between 5/4s/4 -- my expectation is that there were a lot of 4 and 4s sold. If those old phones did as well I suspect they have over the last year -- I think the 5c should do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I think the 5C will sell very well, and will be the largest component of the iPhone mix, while 5S will be the "Pro" edition for who want the flagship. They have already lowered prices in a sense, their main phone now sells for 550 rather than 650. Would any of you guys buy an iWatch? I don't wear watches.....so idk, but it could be cool. I'd like for them to make the Mac line more affordable, they could still keep margins very high and dramatically increase profits. MBAs have been growing strongly, and there is no reason they cannot become dominant. I'd be down for a tech watch that didn't look very "techy" that can be used to track motion for calorie counting, wake up alarm, etc I'm currently looking at the FitBit2 but it's a rather pricy device and from the reviews, doesn't work as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 On hardincap's comment the the 5c will be DOA in China: http://venturebeat.com/2013/09/17/apple-selling-out-iphone-5s-and-5c-pre-orders-in-china-with-the-magic-of-free/ Though, its an odd pricing model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Ok let's talk valuation. I'm interested at 425 or below. Anybody else looking to buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 If there was anything at all that could make my iPad the perfect device it would be a 10" e-ink touchscreen cover. All the e-book apps are already on the ipad and even just for reading long articles on the web or in feedly this would be perfect. Hands On With the Alcatel One Touch Hero’s E-ink Cover I know this cover isn't a touchscreen, but I don't think Apple would release one that isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeCrow Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Why should Apple reduce the price of the iPhone when carriers will do it for them and take the hit themselves? http://www.macrumors.com/2013/09/16/sprint-offering-100-off-iphone-5s-and-iphone-5c-for-new-customers/ http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/09/15/docomos-move-to-carry-iphone-triggers-price-war-in-japan/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now