AAPL - Apple Inc.

[fareastwarriors]

What do you guys think about the update today?

[TheAiGuy]

Roughly the equivalent of an OS X refresh. Useful, has to happen & boring.

[johnny]

Decent product lineup, a great way of framing what is essentially an across-the-board ASP capitulation in a positive and brand-affirming way.

 

16gb remains inexcusable, obviously. Apple has had some people go out and claim some High Unspecific Percentage of 16gb buyers will never hit their limit, but the vagueness with which that claim has been delivered makes it feel like BS to me. I see ordinary users complain about this problem all-the-time.

 

From the perspective of developers (only some of whom have to worry about storage) this is a good thing. Getting the "cheap" phone on an A9 now means that a lot of apps can safely presume A9-or-better by 2018/2019, which is a big difference from having to stress out about supporting the A7 for too much longer.

 

That said, we are now in a bizzaro world where the cheap "entry-level" iPhone actually has a substantial silicon edge over the "mid-tier" iPhone 6. That'll be resolved when the 6 disappears in October, but it'll be interesting to see what the upgrade cycle of the SE ends up being in the future. Will they keep it as a "mid-cycle refreshing" thing or do they expect to eventually align it with the prestige phone? I think there is a case to be made here for both options.

[Palantir]

SE looks like a great product at a very reasonable price point.

[Viking]

The big news was the $399 price point for the new 4" phone. Apple's key risk is if iPhone replacement cycle lengthens; I think I read it has increased from 24 to 27 months. If replacement cycle lengthens then Apple will need to find a way to move more units , hence, why we are getting a cheaper entry level phone. This phone may be targeted primarily as a way to get some grow in India (guess on my part).

 

I think we will also see Apple go more premium on the high end with the 7 (better features on some units and a higher price).

 

As the market matures they will have multiple size and price offerings. Very smart.

 

The key questions with a $399 new phone is where will the revenue growth come from moving forward (especially if the replacement cycle lengthens).

[rkbabang]

The big news was the $399 price point for the new 4" phone. Apple's key risk is if iPhone replacement cycle lengthens; I think I read it has increased from 24 to 27 months. If replacement cycle lengthens then Apple will need to find a way to move more units , hence, why we are getting a cheaper entry level phone. This phone may be targeted primarily as a way to get some grow in India (guess only part).

 

I think we will also see Apple go more premium on the high end with the 7 (better features on some units and a higher price).

 

As the market matures they will have multiple size and price offerings. Very smart.

 

The key questions with a $399 new phone is where will the revenue growth come from moving forward (especially if the replacement cycle lengthens).

 

It's really $499. Does anyone really want a 16GB phone?  I wonder how many 16GB models they actually sell?  But even at $499 it is a great deal compared with the 6 (cheaper, faster CPU, better camera), or the 6S which is the same with 3D touch and a larger screen, but much more expensive. The margins on the 6S must be incredible.  I was going to buy my son a used 5S, but now I'm thinking of giving him mine, which I know works well, and getting an SE for myself.

[innerscorecard]

Decent product lineup, a great way of framing what is essentially an across-the-board ASP capitulation in a positive and brand-affirming way.

 

16gb remains inexcusable, obviously. Apple has had some people go out and claim some High Unspecific Percentage of 16gb buyers will never hit their limit, but the vagueness with which that claim has been delivered makes it feel like BS to me. I see ordinary users complain about this problem all-the-time.

 

From the perspective of developers (only some of whom have to worry about storage) this is a good thing. Getting the "cheap" phone on an A9 now means that a lot of apps can safely presume A9-or-better by 2018/2019, which is a big difference from having to stress out about supporting the A7 for too much longer.

 

That said, we are now in a bizzaro world where the cheap "entry-level" iPhone actually has a substantial silicon edge over the "mid-tier" iPhone 6. That'll be resolved when the 6 disappears in October, but it'll be interesting to see what the upgrade cycle of the SE ends up being in the future. Will they keep it as a "mid-cycle refreshing" thing or do they expect to eventually align it with the prestige phone? I think there is a case to be made here for both options.

 

Do you think it's a problem IF it's the case that ASP capitulation is not accompanied by GM capitulation?

[johnny]

IMO, Apple's current valuation doesn't require them to hold the line on ASPs or margins indefinitely. I think the bigger risk to Apple is that they may do brand-undermining things in order to keep them propped up, which is why I'm constantly griping about the 16 gig stuff.

 

It bears repeating that Jobs diagnosed the primary strategic failure of Sculley-era Apple as a prioritization of profit margins above all else and a resulting loss of share. So on balance I'm very happy to see a $399 phone, precisely because I know the margins on it aren't going to be all that incredible.

[giofranchi]

Apple, the social enterprise

 

http://techcrunch.com/2016/03/21/apple-the-social-enterprise/?ncid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29&sr_share=twitter

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[Liberty]

Here's how they're preserving margin on the SE:

 

But the iPhone SE is not a perfect match for the iPhone 6 and 6s. The display, while still a bright IPS screen, is more in line with the screen on the 5s—it’s got a lower contrast ratio and reduced viewing angle compared to the next-generation screens on the iPhone 6 and 6s. And the Touch ID sensor is unchanged from the 5s, so it’s slower than the new second-generation Touch ID sensor found on the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. The iPhone SE’s 1.2-megapixel selfie camera is a match with the one found on the iPhone 6, not the upgraded 5-megapixel model found on the iPhone 6s. And there’s no built-in barometer, so forget thinking of using the iPhone SE to track how many sets of stairs you’ve climbed or how many vertical feet of snowboarding you got in over the weekend.

 

And no 3D Touch.

 

Good move. Much better to have this almost-no-compromise phone as your entry level than a 2-year-old 5S (especially for places like India), and it'll expand the addressed market to those who simply don't want a bigger phone yet don't want an old phone. I think it's a smart move.

[giofranchi]

This is a good article on both Andy Grove and Apple:

 

Andy Grove and the iPhone SE

 

https://stratechery.com/2016/andy-grove-and-the-iphone-se/

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[johnny]

Here's how they're preserving margin on the SE:

 

I seriously doubt those omissions, combined, make up much of a margin impact; and in many cases their absence is probably form-factor limited (I'm thinking 3D Touch's linear actuator and thicker panel, the 6s camera, etc.)

 

But the more I think about this phone the more I like it as well. The decision to preserve the 5-model design language is very interesting though. If this phone came in at 32GB I would consider replacing my 6s plus with it, which is I guess a very good reason to have not started it off at 32, haha.

[Liberty]

Here's how they're preserving margin on the SE:

 

I seriously doubt those omissions, combined, make up much of a margin impact; and in many cases their absence is probably form-factor limited (I'm thinking 3D Touch's linear actuator and thicker panel, the 6s camera, etc.)

 

Why don't you think they do? I'm not saying it's a massive difference, but I'd be surprised if the SE had GMs lower than 40-50% at its average ASP, which will probably be closer to 500 than 400.

 

Edit: Someone pointed out that by using many 6S components in the SE, they're using 6-month old stuff that is farther along the learning curve, so the efficiencies and yields are already high, and they're addings further scale to the production of these components, which could make them cheaper per units for the 6S line too, regaining some of the lost margin of the SE on that side.

[rkbabang]

Here's how they're preserving margin on the SE:

 

I seriously doubt those omissions, combined, make up much of a margin impact; and in many cases their absence is probably form-factor limited (I'm thinking 3D Touch's linear actuator and thicker panel, the 6s camera, etc.)

 

Why don't you think they do? I'm not saying it's a massive difference, but I'd be surprised if the SE had GMs lower than 40-50% at its average ASP, which will probably be closer to 500 than 400.

 

Edit: Someone pointed out that by using many 6S components in the SE, they're using 6-month old stuff that is farther along the learning curve, so the efficiencies and yields are already high, and they're addings further scale to the production of these components, which could make them cheaper per units for the 6S line too, regaining some of the lost margin of the SE on that side.

 

Not too mention it appears that they are using many 5S pieces as well, the screen, the enclosure, all the buttons/connectors, etc, no retooling.  They put this together without needing to design much of anything new.  I love the form factor, I hope they keep the SE line identical on the outside for years to come, just update the insides for SE 2017, SE 2018, etc.  The accessory makers will love it too.

 

[johnny]

Edit: Someone pointed out that by using many 6S components in the SE, they're using 6-month old stuff that is farther along the learning curve, so the efficiencies and yields are already high, and they're addings further scale to the production of these components, which could make them cheaper per units for the 6S line too, regaining some of the lost margin of the SE on that side.

 

Exactly. They are using 6 month old components and selling them for $400, whereas traditionally they would be selling those very components when they're 12 months old, but for $150 more. So they're selling them earlier, and for way cheaper. And while we can only guess about the cost difference for omissions (3D touch) and reductions (smaller backlight/battery), they just can't plausibly add up to anywhere close to that MSRP reduction, or even half of it really.

 

Obviously keeping the 5s tooling up and running is great from a cost perspective. But the status quo already would have been that. The SE is, right now, replacing the 5s. It is just doing so at a $50 lower MSRP, with much better internals. I guess we will see what the lineup looks like towards the end of the year. Presumably they're going to keep the SE more or less as-is, and have it occupy what would have become the original 6 position. There might be some cost savings there; perhaps the 6 is more expensive to put together than anybody has speculated (there was that bending issue with the 6000 series aluminum I guess?)

 

On a more casual note, Is anybody here considering the SE? I've been considering getting it as a way of imposing discipline on myself by making the phone too inconvenient to use (the 6s+ is just a little too easy to start typing treatises on).

[Liberty]

Good thing it isn't Microsoft's job to secure people's smartphones:

 

http://9to5mac.com/2016/03/28/windows-10-china-govtos/

[giofranchi]

Apple's Reported 2017 iPhone Plans Could Mean Its 2-Year Upgrade Cycle Is Over

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3961497-apples-reported-2017-iphone-plans-mean-2-year-upgrade-cycle

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[giofranchi]

iPhone SE Is Apple's $30 Billion Bet on 4-Inch Screens

 

http://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/3/28/iphone-se-apples-30-billion-bet-on-4-inch-screens

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[giofranchi]

Review: Apple iPhone SE

 

Put it all together, and the SE sounds like the perfect smartphone. Great battery life, fast performance, really good camera, all in a pretty package that helps you do stuff without demanding you devote your life to gazing upon its wonders. And, indeed, I really like this phone. I wouldn’t call you crazy if you bought it, especially if you’re one of the peaceful-protestor iPhone 5s owners, and I wouldn’t call you crazy if two years from now you’re rooting for Apple to introduce the iPhone SE 2. Or the iPhone SEs. Whatever they call it, I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple does keep updating its small phone, giving the people—the new smartphone owners, the resolute one-handers, the small-hands-havers—what they want.

 

Me? I’m not going back to a small phone. Sure, it’s not as easy to hold in one hand, but my gargantuan iPhone 6s Plus is so much better for watching movies, so much more suited to reading books and long articles, so much more pleasant to type on, that I can’t give it up. The iPhone 5s, and by extension the SE, are for people for whom the smartphone is a tool, not a lifestyle. And for better and for worse, our phones are becoming extensions of our lives. And as we go forward, into virtual reality and the Internet of Things and the connection of every object and surface on the planet, our phones are only growing more important. I want a phone that does the best job of doing the most things. That means I need a bigger phone.

 

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/review-apple-iphone-se/?mbid=social_twitter

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[rkbabang]

Apple iPhone SE Teardown shows a mix of parts from the 6S, 5S, and 6, with very few new components.

 

 

[giofranchi]

Review: 12 ways the 9.7 inch iPad Pro is different

 

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/12-ways-9-7-inch-ipad-pro-different/

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[giofranchi]

Apple Watch's Future Will Include Smart Watch Bands

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3963814-apple-watchs-future-will-include-smart-watch-bands

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[jeffmori7]

SE is doing well: http://thenextweb.com/apple/2016/04/07/apple-sold-out-iphone-se/

[giofranchi]

Apple Car Exclusive: Experts Look At What Could Be A Game-Changer

 

http://www.motortrend.com/news/apple-car-exclusive/#.Vw-kFaVbOQU.twitter

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

[blainehodder]

Apple Car Exclusive: Experts Look At What Could Be A Game-Changer

 

http://www.motortrend.com/news/apple-car-exclusive/#.Vw-kFaVbOQU.twitter

 

Cheers,

 

 

Gio

 

"Experts"  ;D

 

Anyone who drew up those designs as being a game changer really isnt paying attention to why people like Teslas.