sleepydragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Lol. Oh wow this is going to end badly..... His position is actually not that bad. If stock Tank, his gain is unlimited, but if stock jump, his lost is capped at the Higher strike call he bought. Basically he finances his put by taking some extra risk on the upside but it's still capped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I wouldn't believe a story of some attention troll on the Internet. My guess is that most of this is fake. If not, well the guy is not learning much for his $2.5M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I wouldn't believe a story of some attention troll on the Internet. My guess is that most of this is fake. If not, well the guy is not learning much for his $2.5M. I was thinking the same thing. The rich uncle I never knew had money left me $2.5M and I blew it all on day trading and blackjack? Then he gives his odds of breaking even on his trade at <1% and his odds of losing money are 0%. Can anyone who knows how options work (and has already lost a lot of money) be that stupid? I don't buy it. It just sounds made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I wouldn't believe a story of some attention troll on the Internet. My guess is that most of this is fake. If not, well the guy is not learning much for his $2.5M. Oh yeah, to be clear, I'm pretty sure it's all fake. edit: Apparently he was using a demo IB account. So fake as expected. Wanted to believe. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 seems like a good quarter, Apple said it sold 78.3 million iPhones in the final quarter of 2016, generating $54.4 billion in revenue in the period. The average sales price for each iPhone was $695, compared with $691 a year earlier. Analysts had forecast iPhone unit sales of 76.3 million and an average selling price of $688, according to a Bloomberg News survey. That suggested consumers are still eager to snap up Apple’s latest models, which bodes well for future product launches. Sales in the three months through March will be $51.5 billion to $53.5 billion, the Cupertino, California-based company said in a statement. The average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was $53.8 billion. Apple expects a gross profit margin of 38 percent to 39 percent in the period, while analysts forecast 38.7 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 seems like a good quarter, Apple said it sold 78.3 million iPhones in the final quarter of 2016, generating $54.4 billion in revenue in the period. The average sales price for each iPhone was $695, compared with $691 a year earlier. Analysts had forecast iPhone unit sales of 76.3 million and an average selling price of $688, according to a Bloomberg News survey. That suggested consumers are still eager to snap up Apple’s latest models, which bodes well for future product launches. Sales in the three months through March will be $51.5 billion to $53.5 billion, the Cupertino, California-based company said in a statement. The average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was $53.8 billion. Apple expects a gross profit margin of 38 percent to 39 percent in the period, while analysts forecast 38.7 percent. Apple's Past Weighs on Its Present https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-31/apple-earnings-glorious-past-casts-pall-on-pedestrian-present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Apple's problem was its fiscal 2015 was a monster year due to the launch of the larger screen iPhone. Apple's business tends to be lumpy depending on what iPhone is being launched and what new features are being introduced. If you looks at Apple's sales the past 5 years and smooth out fiscal 2015 you see a very large company continue to grow the top line although at a slower rate. 3 Keys for 2017: 1.) how much of an upgrade will the next iPhone be? 2.) will Trump enable offshore cash to be repatriated at a favourable tax rate? 3.) will Trump's 'US first' trade policies hurt multinational corporations like Apple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Apple's problem was its fiscal 2015 was a monster year due to the launch of the larger screen iPhone. Apple's business tends to be lumpy depending on what iPhone is being launched and what new features are being introduced. If you looks at Apple's sales the past 5 years and smooth out fiscal 2015 you see a very large company continue to grow the top line although at a slower rate. 3 Keys for 2017: 1.) how much of an upgrade will the next iPhone be? 2.) will Trump enable offshore cash to be repatriated at a favourable tax rate? 3.) will Trump's 'US first' trade policies hurt multinational corporations like Apple? You can also see that iPad sales are slowing or decreasing. Now is that because competitors have better products, people have left the fad of tablets or is the larger iPhone screen cannibalizing some of the market share? Maybe a combination of all three? Nonetheless, this beast keeps throwing off cash! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Apple's problem was its fiscal 2015 was a monster year due to the launch of the larger screen iPhone. Apple's business tends to be lumpy depending on what iPhone is being launched and what new features are being introduced. If you looks at Apple's sales the past 5 years and smooth out fiscal 2015 you see a very large company continue to grow the top line although at a slower rate. 3 Keys for 2017: 1.) how much of an upgrade will the next iPhone be? 2.) will Trump enable offshore cash to be repatriated at a favourable tax rate? 3.) will Trump's 'US first' trade policies hurt multinational corporations like Apple? You can also see that iPad sales are slowing or decreasing. Now is that because competitors have better products, people have left the fad of tablets or is the larger iPhone screen cannibalizing some of the market share? Maybe a combination of all three? Nonetheless, this beast keeps throwing off cash! Cheers! I know that in my home we used to have 2 iPads and now have none. When we got our larger screen iPhone 6S's my wife and I never used our iPads anymore so they went on ebay. I'm sure some people find them useful, (maybe for young kids or homes with no desktop computer), but I no longer see the usefulness of a tablet. If I need a bigger screen or a keyboard I turn on my iMac, which is much more functional than an IOS device. And if I need portability the iPhone is just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Apple's problem was its fiscal 2015 was a monster year due to the launch of the larger screen iPhone. Apple's business tends to be lumpy depending on what iPhone is being launched and what new features are being introduced. If you looks at Apple's sales the past 5 years and smooth out fiscal 2015 you see a very large company continue to grow the top line although at a slower rate. 3 Keys for 2017: 1.) how much of an upgrade will the next iPhone be? 2.) will Trump enable offshore cash to be repatriated at a favourable tax rate? 3.) will Trump's 'US first' trade policies hurt multinational corporations like Apple? You can also see that iPad sales are slowing or decreasing. Now is that because competitors have better products, people have left the fad of tablets or is the larger iPhone screen cannibalizing some of the market share? Maybe a combination of all three? Nonetheless, this beast keeps throwing off cash! Cheers! I know that in my home we used to have 2 iPads and now have none. When we got our larger screen iPhone 6S's my wife and I never used our iPads anymore so they went on ebay. I'm sure some people find them useful, (maybe for young kids or homes with no desktop computer), but I no longer see the usefulness of a tablet. If I need a bigger screen or a keyboard I turn on my iMac, which is much more functional than an IOS device. And if I need portability the iPhone is just fine. I have a 1st gen iPad Air 64gb that I use daily for reading K's, Q's, proxies & various magazines (I almost never use it for anything else.) That said; I see no need to upgrade & will use this one until it dies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I have two $35 Amazon Fire 7" for reading ebooks. Oops, sorry, wrong thread. :P (Unless some Apple fans suddenly become value buyers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I have two $35 Amazon Fire 7" for reading ebooks. Oops, sorry, wrong thread. :P (Unless some Apple fans suddenly become value buyers) Why a Fire and not an e-ink Kindle? I use my Kobo e-ink device to read ebooks, but I don't consider that a tablet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Apple's problem was its fiscal 2015 was a monster year due to the launch of the larger screen iPhone. Apple's business tends to be lumpy depending on what iPhone is being launched and what new features are being introduced. If you looks at Apple's sales the past 5 years and smooth out fiscal 2015 you see a very large company continue to grow the top line although at a slower rate. 3 Keys for 2017: 1.) how much of an upgrade will the next iPhone be? 2.) will Trump enable offshore cash to be repatriated at a favourable tax rate? 3.) will Trump's 'US first' trade policies hurt multinational corporations like Apple? You can also see that iPad sales are slowing or decreasing. Now is that because competitors have better products, people have left the fad of tablets or is the larger iPhone screen cannibalizing some of the market share? Maybe a combination of all three? Nonetheless, this beast keeps throwing off cash! Cheers! I know that in my home we used to have 2 iPads and now have none. When we got our larger screen iPhone 6S's my wife and I never used our iPads anymore so they went on ebay. I'm sure some people find them useful, (maybe for young kids or homes with no desktop computer), but I no longer see the usefulness of a tablet. If I need a bigger screen or a keyboard I turn on my iMac, which is much more functional than an IOS device. And if I need portability the iPhone is just fine. I have a 1st gen iPad Air 64gb that I use daily for reading K's, Q's, proxies & various magazines (I almost never use it for anything else.) That said; I see no need to upgrade & will use this one until it dies... I have an iPad Pro and find the Apple Pencil to be extremely useful: I almost don't use paper anymore! Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I have two $35 Amazon Fire 7" for reading ebooks. Oops, sorry, wrong thread. :P (Unless some Apple fans suddenly become value buyers) Why a Fire and not an e-ink Kindle? I use my Kobo e-ink device to read ebooks, but I don't consider that a tablet. I have a Paperwhite for books but if they contain too many diagrams & graphics, I use the Mindle app on my iPad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I have two $35 Amazon Fire 7" for reading ebooks. Oops, sorry, wrong thread. :P (Unless some Apple fans suddenly become value buyers) Why a Fire and not an e-ink Kindle? I use my Kobo e-ink device to read ebooks, but I don't consider that a tablet. OT. Well, Fires were just $35. ::) Kobo might be too, but for Amazon DRM-crap-Kindle books, you need Amazon device or something that has Kindle app. (Unless you're a Pirate'arian, but we won't go there). And you can do other stuff on Fires... which I almost never do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I have two $35 Amazon Fire 7" for reading ebooks. Oops, sorry, wrong thread. :P (Unless some Apple fans suddenly become value buyers) Why a Fire and not an e-ink Kindle? I use my Kobo e-ink device to read ebooks, but I don't consider that a tablet. OT. Well, Fires were just $35. ::) Kobo might be too, but for Amazon DRM-crap-Kindle books, you need Amazon device or something that has Kindle app. (Unless you're a Pirate'arian, but we won't go there). And you can do other stuff on Fires... which I almost never do. No, I have the Kobo Aura HD which was ~$150-$175 or something when I bought it. It has a really nice screen though. And let's just say with a quick Calibre conversion you can read anything on it regardless of where you bought/got the file from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbharadwaj Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I had a 2nd gen iPad for a long time and recently upgraded to an iPad Pro. It is one of the best upgrade decisions I have ever made. The biggest usage has been with the Playgrounds app, that my daughters (6 and 12) and wife have used to get familiar with programming via Swift language. They have gone to different expertise levels based on their interest/aptitude, but the uniform feedback has been that it has been a very innovative learning experience. I have been encouraging other friends of mine to invest in an iPad Pro if they are keen on this approach to learn programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 We have 4 iPads in the house and have not upgraded in a couple of years with no plans to upgrade in the next year. They are all used daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PLynchJr Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Same at our house. 4 iPads used heavily every day. Kids are addicted to them. If they had their way it's just about all they'd do day and night. Wife and I use them quite a bit to browse the web while watching TV, etc. Just no real compelling reason to upgrade yet. I've been tempted to upgrade to the iPad Pro but I'm waiting to see if they finally come out with some big upgrades in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Apple Set to Begin Making iPhones in India by April’s End https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-03/apple-set-to-begin-making-iphones-in-india-by-april-s-end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I won't comment on what I think of this, but it is idiotic. AAPL_VIC_Jan_2017.pdf.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I won't comment on what I think of this, but it is idiotic. Is the author "Bluegrass"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I don't agree that the base case for Apple is a 50% drop in iPhone sales over the next 5 years. But, I always like to check the author's model to see if it is consistent with the author's scenario. In this case, Bluegrass is assuming that over the next 5 years: - iPhone revenue drops in 1/2 - Services revenue is stable - "other" revenue (Apple TV, Watch, etc) drops in half BUT, R&D spending goes from 3% of revenue to 18% of revenue. AND Apple spends $125B on R&D and generates ZERO revenue from this. I don't think this scenario is plausible. If you assume that Apple's R&D is completely broken and useless, then they would scale it down with revenue. Let's assume R&D is 5% of revenue (even though this is significantly higher than historical). Under this assumption, Apple would have $347+83=$430B in cash. Terminal value (at 7x proforma) is $201B. So liquidating value is more like: 430*.9 +201 = $588 Given current market values and interest rates, a cost of equity of 8% is more reasonable. And the author seems to ignore dividends. So let's use a discount rate of 8%-1.8%(div)=6.2%. So, using more realistic assumptions, the downside under his liquidation scenario is $83. Which, given the 52 week low is $89, is pretty realistic. But not a very compelling short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abyli Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I won't comment on what I think of this, but it is idiotic. I agree. This is idiotic. Please short Apple more! :-) Let's see how he/she loses pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I sold 48% of my AAPL equity last week (not based on the VIC writeup.) Not sure if it's correct to look at it like this but from a cash flow standpoint, I got around 78% of my investment back (including reinvested divvies) so I'm not playing with the house's money but I figure that a ton of downside has been removed. I second abyli "please short it down..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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