AAPL - Apple Inc.

[Liberty]

A lot of these photos look like they could've been taken with DSLRs. Can't wait to try for myself (with the X, which has better cameras than the 8 Plus):

 

https://www.cnet.com/features/apple-iphone-8-plus-camera-perfect-photos-san-francisco/

[fareastwarriors]

Apple Watch Series 3 First Review: Is Cellular Connectivity Really A Game-Changer? (Updated)

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2017/09/20/apple-watch-series-3-first-review-cellular-connectivity-review-series-3-new-watchos-iphone-8-x-latest-should-i-buy-price/#4885afad11bf

[DooDiligence]

Apple Watch Series 3 First Review: Is Cellular Connectivity Really A Game-Changer? (Updated)

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2017/09/20/apple-watch-series-3-first-review-cellular-connectivity-review-series-3-new-watchos-iphone-8-x-latest-should-i-buy-price/#4885afad11bf

 

Nice writeup (hoping 4 the same experience.)

 

2 more days till mine gets here (can't sit still...)

[Liberty]

Wow

 

https://www.tomsguide.com/us/iphone-8-benchmarks-fastest-phone,review-4676.html

[porcupine]

Are any longs concerned about the lines, or lack there of, for the release today?

[rkbabang]

Are any longs concerned about the lines, or lack there of, for the release today?

 

I think the 8/8+ sales will be underwhelming, because for a few hundred more you can get an X.  I think the type of people who would wait in a long line for the next iPhone are exactly the type of people who would wait to buy the X.

 

[Liberty]

Are any longs concerned about the lines, or lack there of, for the release today?

 

Apple has been pushing people to pre-order online more and more for the past few years. There's now basically no benefit (but still big hassle) to standing in line since people who ordered online will get their phones on opening day. Basically, who cares about lines ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

If there's something that has an effect this year, it'll be the iPhone X only coming later. The kind of early adopters who are ready to stand in line are the kind of people who will want a top of the line model... But delayed sales are not lost sales.

[Spekulatius]

All the buzz is around the X clearly, so I think the X will exceed expectations and the iphone 8/+ will underwhelm. I think the risk for Apple is that the X has some issues that impact sales or they sim0ly can’t handle the very Volume and debottleneck their manufacturing fast enough to meet demand.

 

Overall, it is very good news for Apple, if they  can increase the the MSRP of their phone by a few hundred $ without losing sales.

[rkbabang]

I was thinking who would even buy an iPhone 8 or 8+?  It would have to be:

 

1) Someone who is so price sensitive that $300 more is too much, or $200 more for the 8+, but not too price sensitive, given that the 8/8+ range in price from $699-$949.

 

2) Someone who needs a new phone right now and can't wait. (old phone is broken maybe).

 

3) Someone who wants the same format they are used to with the home button and touchID. (Luddites)

 

 

I suspect most of the 8/8+ buyers are in category 1, but that will be a small number compared with those who just wait for the better phone.

 

[KCLarkin]

I was thinking who would even buy an iPhone 8 or 8+?  It would have to be:

 

1) Someone who is so price sensitive that $300 more is too much, or $200 more for the 8+, but not too price sensitive, given that the 8/8+ range in price from $699-$949.

 

2) Someone who needs a new phone right now and can't wait. (old phone is broken maybe).

 

3) Someone who wants the same format they are used to with the home button and touchID. (Luddites)

 

 

I suspect most of the 8/8+ buyers are in category 1, but that will be a small number compared with those who just wait for the better phone.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2017/09/20/good-better-best/

 

Is the "pragmatic" group going to buy the iPhone 6s, iPhone 7, or iPhone 8? This is clearly a transition year for Apple, since they know they wouldn't be able to produce enough X's to meet iPhone 8 + iPhone X demand with just a single model (due to limited supply of OLED). They are hoping that a large portion are willing to settle for the 8. But I worry that demand will split between iPhone 7 and iPhone X. iPhone 8 will be stuck in no-mans land like the iPhone 5c. Not a flop like iPhone 5c but much lower than their forecasts. Demand for iPhone X will exceed forecasts but be production constrained.

[pau_]

I think that's a good categorization. I would add that most buyers will be financing and won't even be comparing the sticker prices. For buyers using Apple's "Upgrade Program", it looks like:

 

$35/month for 8

$40/month for 8+

$50/month for X

 

People financing a phone could fall in category 1) because they think of $35/month as affordable for the utility, but are still price sensitive.

[rb]

There's also a whole bunch of people outside of the tech fanboy group that get all the functionality they need want with even current technology. This group is sizable today. It'll be hard to push this group to pay an extra $300 per phone or whatever that breaks to per month.

[rkbabang]

I was thinking who would even buy an iPhone 8 or 8+?  It would have to be:

 

1) Someone who is so price sensitive that $300 more is too much, or $200 more for the 8+, but not too price sensitive, given that the 8/8+ range in price from $699-$949.

 

2) Someone who needs a new phone right now and can't wait. (old phone is broken maybe).

 

3) Someone who wants the same format they are used to with the home button and touchID. (Luddites)

 

 

I suspect most of the 8/8+ buyers are in category 1, but that will be a small number compared with those who just wait for the better phone.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2017/09/20/good-better-best/

 

Is the "pragmatic" group going to buy the iPhone 6s, iPhone 7, or iPhone 8? This is clearly a transition year for Apple, since they know they wouldn't be able to produce enough X's to meet iPhone 8 + iPhone X demand with just a single model (due to limited supply of OLED). They are hoping that a large portion are willing to settle for the 8. But I worry that demand will split between iPhone 7 and iPhone X. iPhone 8 will be stuck in no-mans land like the iPhone 5c. Not a flop like iPhone 5c but much lower than their forecasts. Demand for iPhone X will exceed forecasts but be production constrained.

 

The iPhone X being production constrained is my biggest fear for this cycle.  I think the demand will be there, but they can only sell so many if they only have so many to sell.  I know I'm willing to wait for one, so if it takes me until April so be it.  I'm not going to buy a 7 or an 8.  I wonder what others will do.  The 8 will sell fine long term.  Next year when you have the XS, X, and 8/8+, the 8 will be the low cost option.

 

[rkbabang]

There's also a whole bunch of people outside of the tech fanboy group that get all the functionality they need want with even current technology. This group is sizable today. It'll be hard to push this group to pay an extra $300 per phone or whatever that breaks to per month.

 

This group isn't buying a new phone this year, so they certainly aren't iPhone 8 buyers.  My list was of people who are buying the iPhone 8.

[rb]

There's also a whole bunch of people outside of the tech fanboy group that get all the functionality they need want with even current technology. This group is sizable today. It'll be hard to push this group to pay an extra $300 per phone or whatever that breaks to per month.

 

This group isn't buying a new phone this year, so they certainly aren't iPhone 8 buyers.  My list was of people who are buying the iPhone 8.

They are is they have the 6.

[rkbabang]

There's also a whole bunch of people outside of the tech fanboy group that get all the functionality they need want with even current technology. This group is sizable today. It'll be hard to push this group to pay an extra $300 per phone or whatever that breaks to per month.

 

This group isn't buying a new phone this year, so they certainly aren't iPhone 8 buyers.  My list was of people who are buying the iPhone 8.

They are is they have the 6.

 

Then they fit perfectly into my category 3 above.  They don't want all that new-fangled technology, they want to stick with what they know.

 

[DooDiligence]

My Mom & her husband got SE's around a year ago.

 

They didn't want the larger form factor.

 

I couldn't believe that anyone would opt for the smaller screen but there you go...

[Spekulatius]

A lot of people at my work own an SE, presumably due to its compact size. Not everyone uses their phone so surf internet or play games. They want a compact phone and make calls and check their emails.

 

FWIW, the SE can be had for <$150 from several prepaid providers, including for postpaid ATT. That’s a great deal considering that the guts of it are basically a 6S phone. I would consider it , if my eyesight were better.

[Liberty]

What a camera!

 

http://austinmann.com/trek/iphone-8-camera-review-india

[gfp]

Yes the SE sells really well because it’s the smallest. It’s important to remember that pockets on women’s clothing are made unbelievably small. My wife has a 6s but is always considering downgrading back to her 5s. They should keep the SE size for a long time.

 

Personally, I’ve had the 7+ since it came out and it’s been the best phone i’ve owned. A little slippery I guess. Maybe the glass ones will help with grip

[DooDiligence]

Yes the SE sells really well because it’s the smallest. It’s important to remember that pockets on women’s clothing are made unbelievably small. My wife has a 6s but is always considering downgrading back to her 5s. They should keep the SE size for a long time.

 

Personally, I’ve had the 7+ since it came out and it’s been the best phone i’ve owned. A little slippery I guess. Maybe the glass ones will help with grip

 

I friggin' love the new watch with LTE.

 

Gonna dunk it this afternoon out at Big Lagoon.

 

I wonder how many others will find it as useful as me?

[Viking]

We just bought the SE and the size was the deciding factor. The fact it was also the cheapest was icing on the cake.

 

I use my phone primarily for calls. I do most of my reading on my iPad (my most used device by far). I do most of my work on my Mac. Both my two youngest kids only want SE sized phone.

 

I hope Apple relaunches updated version of SE next year.

[John Hjorth]

I friggin' love the new watch with LTE.

 

Gonna dunk it this afternoon out at Big Lagoon.

 

I wonder how many others will find it as useful as me?

 

It seems like a nice device, DooDiligence. I just need a Swiss watchmaker to humiliate itself by becoming supplier to Apple of watch cases and watch bands.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And by the way, based relatively, on existing technology at the time of release, it's actually antique in some way, approx. three hundred years behind its frontrunner. [ : - ) ]

[Pauly]

An updated SE with the form factor of the latest iPod touch would be great. The only downsides to the SE, for me, are the slightly inferior quality (not size) of the display and the home button feeling a little....cheap. That said I will upgrade to the X.

 

Thinking of adding to AAPL for the first time in a while. Based on scuttlebutt the demand for the X is going to be huge. Low demand for the 8 should be seen as a positive pent up demand for the X. I like this pullback.

 

And it seems like Apple might have finally found the secret sauce for wearable tech, something Google (glass) never managed. If they can bundle the watch with AirPods, subsidized by early adopters, how many can they sell?

[DooDiligence]

I friggin' love the new watch with LTE.

 

Gonna dunk it this afternoon out at Big Lagoon.

 

I wonder how many others will find it as useful as me?

 

It seems like a nice device, DooDiligence. I just need a Swiss watchmaker to humiliate itself by becoming supplier to Apple of watch cases and watch bands.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And by the way, based relatively, on existing technology at the time of release, it's actually antique in some way, approx. three hundred years behind its frontrunner. [ : - ) ]

 

I studied Swatch a few years ago & was sorely tempted to buy when it was touching bottom.

 

I love the Breguet story & the complications they put out are amazing.

 

Glashutte's are nice (kinda like a more modestly priced A Lange & Soehne.)

 

Blancpain's no slouch either.

 

Unfortunately, none of these brands are in the sweet spot for them (Omega, Longines, Rado & of course the flagship brand.)

 

It'd be cool to see them partner to produce a funky set of bands for the Apple watch.

 

Oh & they own Harry Winston (the Canadian diamond mining segment went away in the deal.)

 

I wish Hermes would tank (not to be confused with Ulysse Nardin's tank.)

 

Ditto, LVMUY.

 

FWIW see attached letter.

 

Sorry, off piste...

2017_07_21_shareholders_letter_en.pdf