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portfolio14 Newbie

portfolio14

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A couple of thoughts:

 

- My guess is Apple deliberately staggered the iPhone X pre-order date so that they can judge iPhone X demand by iPhone 8/8+ demand and have a head start in planning their supply chain.

 

- SE is the Celeron of iPhone which isn't cheapened like 5C. My guess is Apple will maintain the SE line with updated CPU/RAM but nothing else in order to keep it alive but with enough differentiation.

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johnny Newbie

johnny

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- My guess is Apple deliberately staggered the iPhone X pre-order date so that they can judge iPhone X demand by iPhone 8/8+ demand and have a head start in planning their supply chain.

 

If this was such a great idea, why wouldn't they have done it in any of the past years where they would have preferred to know the mix? Why not just announce the phones 2 months in advance, let everybody pre-order what they want, and then "know" every year?

 

And in what universe do you feel iPhone 8 preorders actually give them a more actionable "mix" prediction than simple market research?

 

And why would having advance mix knowledge matter at all when they have been having production issues for months and will definitely be supply constrained on the X in the first few months?

 

I think your guess is an unnecessarily elaborate alternative to the pretty well-documented explanation that they simply have supply issues on the components that forced them to miss their desired release date for the product (which was probably last year, frankly).

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DooDiligence Newbie

DooDiligence

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DooDiligence,

 

From your Twitter profile, I read that you have issues with Apple Watch 3. Please elaborate here, thank you.

 

LTE is completely unreliable (maybe an antennae issue like they had with the iPhone 4 before?)

 

Trying to get my AirPods to connect can be a real pain (inexcusable...)

 

The final straw was when a friend & I were having coffee on the back porch this morning.

We got up & walked around the front of the house (no iPhone, just the watch) & I asked Siri to make a phone call & got "Siri is unavailable"

 

Really?

 

Got an RA & it's headed back to Apple (sad...)

 

 

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DooDiligence Newbie

DooDiligence

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DooDiligence, do you think your LTE problems were different from the software/OS caused issues described by the WSJ?

 

It's a distinct possibility but hard to tell with the options & views you're allowed on the watch.

 

If they get it fixed (conclusively) then I'll buy another one (it's a useful little bugger...)

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John Hjorth Newbie

John Hjorth

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Next episode of the Apple Irish Tax Soap Opera : Politico: Vestager takes Ireland to court over Apple's taxes.

 

From the article:

 

... The action comes as Dublin is still hunting for an investment manager to oversee the money, which would be dripped into an escrow account over time, according to a person  familiar with the situation. ....

 

Anyone managing OPM here on CoBF interested? [ ; - ) ]

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rkbabang Newbie

rkbabang

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Got an X with 256gb coming for Nov 3.

 

Was worth staying up late. Looking forward to taking photos of the kid (soon to be kids) with the new dual lens camera.

 

I tried to order 3 of them, but Xfinity Mobile had a limit of 2 on the preorders.  So I'll have to get the third one when they go on sale.  I started trying at 3:01am (Eastern Time) and the checkout section of their website was unresponsive for at least a half hour.  I gave up and left my computer about 3:30am, came back at 3:55am and had no problem checking out.  I wonder if it was just an unrelated problem with their server or if they were getting hammered with orders?

 

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rkbabang Newbie

rkbabang

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I agree with everything except the Amazon Echo comments.  That is the one area, ok there's TV, so one of two areas, where apple is clearly inferior to all of its competitors.  Siri is so bad it is unusable and useless.  While Amazon and Google voice recognition and assistance seem to get better and better Siri hasn't improved at all in years and remains awful.  Any praise of the Amazon Echo and scorn leveled at Apple's Siri are deserved.

 

 

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Sharad Newbie

Sharad

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Got an X with 256gb coming for Nov 3.

 

Was worth staying up late. Looking forward to taking photos of the kid (soon to be kids) with the new dual lens camera.

 

Congratulations on the pending arrival of your second little one. I'll tell you from recent experience that the first one can have a difficult time adjusting (even if they don't show their jealousy directly to the younger one). In spite of that, having two is so much fun and rewarding.

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Congratulations on the pending arrival of your second little one. I'll tell you from recent experience that the first one can have a difficult time adjusting (even if they don't show their jealousy directly to the younger one). In spite of that, having two is so much fun and rewarding.

 

Thank you.

 

We think we're already seeing some signs that the first one is reacting to the pregnancy... But we're trying to keep our eyes on the long-term rewards when we're feeling the short-term pain :D

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ICUMD Newbie

ICUMD

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Hi all.  I'm sure this question has been asked before, but I can't seem to find the thread.

 

I'm considering taking a sizeable long term position in AAPL.  Great company, great product, amazing following and very profitable.  My question is given the dependency on a singular product - the Iphone, am I making a mistake in taking a position that I 'set and forget' as a value growth investor?  Do people on this forum view the Iphone as having so much of a lead in terms of supply chain and quality that no one else can catch up?  Is it destined to forever be the 'Porsche' or 'Rolex' of phones?

 

Or would I be better off investing in say Googl with those funds given the diversification and larger 'moat' Googl has to offer?

 

Would appreciate people's thoughts, (or pointing where this may have been discussed before).

 

Thanks!

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KCLarkin Newbie

KCLarkin

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I'm considering taking a sizeable long term position in AAPL.  Great company, great product, amazing following and very profitable.  My question is given the dependency on a singular product - the Iphone, am I making a mistake in taking a position that I 'set and forget' as a value growth investor?  Do people on this forum view the Iphone as having so much of a lead in terms of supply chain and quality that no one else can catch up?  Is it destined to forever be the 'Porsche' or 'Rolex' of phones?

 

This is the core debate with Apple. At times, it is priced like a one hit consumer tech company. At other times, it is priced like a luxury brand. Right now, it is priced like there is some moat so I don't see a compelling reason to buy Apple.

 

Or would I be better off investing in say Googl with those funds given the diversification and larger 'moat' Googl has to offer?

 

Google seems to be a bit pricey now. But perhaps a better question, why not buy both? You don't seem to have a different view than the market, so I don't see a good reason to concentrate in one or the other.

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plato1976 Newbie

plato1976

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It's still priced at sth like 11x FCF ex-cash, so I don't think it's anything like a consumer product company with moat (20x, 30x or even higher, with very limited growth)

 

sure, one year ago it's priced sth like 5x FCF ex-cash and much cheaper...

 

I'm considering taking a sizeable long term position in AAPL.  Great company, great product, amazing following and very profitable.  My question is given the dependency on a singular product - the Iphone, am I making a mistake in taking a position that I 'set and forget' as a value growth investor?  Do people on this forum view the Iphone as having so much of a lead in terms of supply chain and quality that no one else can catch up?  Is it destined to forever be the 'Porsche' or 'Rolex' of phones?

 

This is the core debate with Apple. At times, it is priced like a one hit consumer tech company. At other times, it is priced like a luxury brand. Right now, it is priced like there is some moat so I don't see a compelling reason to buy Apple.

 

Or would I be better off investing in say Googl with those funds given the diversification and larger 'moat' Googl has to offer?

 

Google seems to be a bit pricey now. But perhaps a better question, why not buy both? You don't seem to have a different view than the market, so I don't see a good reason to concentrate in one or the other.

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KCLarkin Newbie

KCLarkin

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It's still priced at sth like 11x FCF ex-cash, so I don't think it's anything like a consumer product company with moat (20x, 30x or even higher, with very limited growth)

 

Yes but even at 11x FCF you need to assume some moat. Every year, Apple needs to create and sell a brand new product. THAT IS HARD. A significant part of Wall Street believes AAPL is the next Nokia or BlackBerry -- just one bad product away from death. I don't agree. But I would wait until the next time that Mr. Market gets pessimistic before building a large position (though with WEB you might not get another chance).

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