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I don’t have particularly high expectations for TV+ either, but we’ll see.  I remember having a similar, slightly negative reaction to Netflix when I first found out about their streaming service earlier in the decade ($6/mo or whatever for access to a couple of original shows with strange premises, a rotating roster of maybe two good movies at any given time, and a large collection of lower quality videos?) and I didn’t bother signing up until everyone was talking about how great Breaking Bad was.  So I’ve decided to just wait and see what Apple actually puts out.  It’s a tricky business IMO where one big hit can make a huge difference.

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  • 2 weeks later...

My neighbor got an 11 in purple and said he liked it a lot.  I got the 11 pro max on launch day and it is as expected- very similar to the 10s max it replaced.  Slightly thicker and heavier (bigger battery).  FaceID is noticeably faster and works at more angles, cameras are very good.

 

I should add - I don't expect them to sell particularly strongly.  They are very similar to last years phones

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My neighbor got an 11 in purple and said he liked it a lot.  I got the 11 pro max on launch day and it is as expected- very similar to the 10s max it replaced.  Slightly thicker and heavier (bigger battery).  FaceID is noticeably faster and works at more angles, cameras are very good.

 

I should add - I don't expect them to sell particularly strongly.  They are very similar to last years phones

 

 

yeah, I'm considering getting an XS instead of the Pro, as it's a bit cheaper. It's only $100 less than the 11 Pro though, and if nothing else, the 11 would hold it's trade-in value for a year longer. Better camera and a slightly faster processor as well.

 

 

I currently have an 6S and have put off upgrading for a while. I think the sales of the 11 are largely going to be people like myself, who have older phones they haven't upgraded in a while. I wouldn't see much of a reason to upgrade to the 11 from the XS or X.

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Have any of you gotten the 11 yet? Considering getting an 11 Pro.

 

The 11 sounds like a better option from a price standpoint, but I think I'd want the Pro for the OLED display.

 

I just got the Pro and it seems nice. I think upgraded screen and additional camera is worth the $100 bucks or so. This is my first iPhone though so I can't really compare it. I've also always went with low end android phones (Moto G5 Plus $249). I believe my wife upgraded from the 6s and obviously it's clearly a better phone. Still not jazzed about the lack of headphone jack. Overall this seems like it had enough stuff to warrant a pricier phone. It seems that people (at least women) are excited enough about the new camera to upgrade. I think the 11 series will sell better than the last two, but that's just a guess.

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  • 4 weeks later...

The AirPods Pro have been such a hit they are extremely supply constrained (for instance, not in stock at B&H Photo or Adorama).  Several convincing fakes are also out in the wild.  Apple just asked one of their contract manufacturers to double production.  Seems like the 'wearables' category will have a huge holiday for Apple with the combination of AirPods Pro and the Series 5 Apple Watch.  Even with the above, I am surprised to see the stock trading so strongly - but the iPhone is selling well enough I suppose.  And they still have the massive 5g upgrade cycle in front of them.  I'm doing my part by buying an engraved set of AirPods Pro and an LTE Apple Watch 5 as Christmas presents for my wife (who doesn't read this forum).  She hates dealing with the phone while running but wants to listen to music.

 

https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/27/apple-said-to-double-airpods-pro-monthly-production-from-1-million-to-2-million-units-due-to-strong-demand/

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Nice multiple expansion. I always thought 9 pe is ridiculous for such a powerful ecosystem and was delighted that Warren Buffett joined us as an investor. Now, Service gross income can catch up with hardware in 5-6 years, and I bet you the multiple is going to remain about where it is. Not cheap now, but the 9 PE was really ridiculous. funny you can find that value in the mega caps.

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Good post. Hype around the iPads has come and gone, that's no secret. However, the 10.5" iPad is insanely popular and can be had for under $300. That is, and remains, the core of the iPad unit sales and fulfills the original premise Jobs had for this unit. As the price of the iPad goes up, you have different use cases trying to fill different niches, subject to cannibalism from other Apple products. So it's no surprise it has its limits.

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Good post. Hype around the iPads has come and gone, that's no secret. However, the 10.5" iPad is insanely popular and can be had for under $300. That is, and remains, the core of the iPad unit sales and fulfills the original premise Jobs had for this unit. As the price of the iPad goes up, you have different use cases trying to fill different niches, subject to cannibalism from other Apple products. So it's no surprise it has its limits.

 

I think it's good, but could be better with more focus on differentiated software from the phone and better care to foster an app ecosystem. They've taken some steps recently by breaking out iPadOS fully, but a lot could've been done years ago. I do understand that most of the effort goes to the iPhone, and that larger phones have cannibalized a lot of attention that might otherwise have gone into tablets and that resources and focus is limited... So I'm not saying it was an easy decision or obvious overlook. But it still could've been/might be in the future something quite a bit more compelling.

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AAPL 2019/20Q1 is out.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, these numbers are almost beyond comprehension. Absolutely fantastic performance.

 

They did take a hit on gross margin though. Gross margin was only up ~$3B, even though services (high gross margin revenues ) are up $2B and Product revenues are up ~$5.6B. I guess the lower sales average prices for some of the iPhone variants are to blame.

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Compared with 2 years ago (Dec 2019 versus Dec 2017):

 

The revenue is up 4%(91.8B/88.3B), gross margin up 4% ($35.2 B/$33.9B).

 

Operating income down 3% (25.569B/26.274B), but stock price up 81% from the Jan 2018 peak.

 

 

AAPL 2019/20Q1 is out.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, these numbers are almost beyond comprehension. Absolutely fantastic performance.

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if we smooth out the iphone down/up cycles,

considering the service revenue / airpod/watch / iphone mix, is 10% eps growth still achievable in the next 10 years?

 

Compared with 2 years ago (Dec 2019 versus Dec 2017):

 

The revenue is up 4%(91.8B/88.3B), gross margin up 4% ($35.2 B/$33.9B).

 

Operating income down 3% (25.569B/26.274B), but stock price up 81% from the Jan 2018 peak.

 

 

AAPL 2019/20Q1 is out.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, these numbers are almost beyond comprehension. Absolutely fantastic performance.

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I just stay away from investments that depend on Moore's law. After the next 'nanometer' iteration, we hit the limits of physics (Spekulatius would know more). Or we would have to have 3-D transistor layouts, all those technologies are kind of unknown.

 

As far as I know, you would need a miracle for semiconductor-dependent companies to be growing in 10 years.

 

Some people say we have already hit Moore's law's limit. I think that is why Broadcom is branching into software (acquired CA, not sure if it managed to buy Symantec also) and selling some of its chip business, Broadcom CEO is a very smart guy.

 

if we smooth out the iphone down/up cycles,

considering the service revenue / airpod/watch / iphone mix, is 10% eps growth still achievable in the next 10 years?

 

Compared with 2 years ago (Dec 2019 versus Dec 2017):

 

The revenue is up 4%(91.8B/88.3B), gross margin up 4% ($35.2 B/$33.9B).

 

Operating income down 3% (25.569B/26.274B), but stock price up 81% from the Jan 2018 peak.

 

 

AAPL 2019/20Q1 is out.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, these numbers are almost beyond comprehension. Absolutely fantastic performance.

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https://towardsdatascience.com/moores-law-is-dead-678119754571

 

Robert Colwell, director of the Microsystems Technology Office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, said he uses the year 2020 and 7nm as the last process technology node. “In reality, I expect the industry to do whatever heavy lifting is needed to push to 5nm, even if 5nm doesn’t offer much advantage over 7, and that moves the earliest end to 2022. I think the end comes right around those nodes.”

 

if we smooth out the iphone down/up cycles,

considering the service revenue / airpod/watch / iphone mix, is 10% eps growth still achievable in the next 10 years?

 

Compared with 2 years ago (Dec 2019 versus Dec 2017):

 

The revenue is up 4%(91.8B/88.3B), gross margin up 4% ($35.2 B/$33.9B).

 

Operating income down 3% (25.569B/26.274B), but stock price up 81% from the Jan 2018 peak.

 

 

AAPL 2019/20Q1 is out.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, these numbers are almost beyond comprehension. Absolutely fantastic performance.

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