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AAPL - Apple Inc.

indirect

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Guest valueInv

Guest valueInv

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Uccmal, you sound very much like the guy who ridiculed Michael Burry online for buying Apple stock and other tech investments many years back.

 

It might also surprise you that Henry Singleton of Teledyne, whom Warren Buffett counts as one of the greatest investors and businessman of all time, also invested in Apple in a big way back in the day.

 

 

 

Oh please, Hardincap.  I'll ask you a few simple questions?  Not to be answered by Valueinv.

 

Whay do you project Apples earnings to be next year, and in three years?

What do you project their margins to be next year, in three years?

Decribe their competitors relative postions today, and in three years?

Decribe to me how mobile data will be handled in TWO years?

 

I can do all these things will relative ease for BAC, SSW, and FFH, and be Mostly in the ballpark.

 

You don't need to project any of those at current valuations. You just need a lower bound.

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Uccmal Newbie

Uccmal

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do you think WB knows what BYD will be earning in three years? or even next year?

 

he's betting on management, company culture, and the industry. different kind of investment than bac, yes, but no less legitimate way to make money

 

Uccmal, you sound very much like the guy who ridiculed Michael Burry online for buying Apple stock and other tech investments many years back.

 

It might also surprise you that Henry Singleton of Teledyne, whom Warren Buffett counts as one of the greatest investors and businessman of all time, also invested in Apple in a big way back in the day.

 

 

 

Oh please, Hardincap.  I'll ask you a few simple questions?  Not to be answered by Valueinv.

 

Whay do you project Apples earnings to be next year, and in three years?

What do you project their margins to be next year, in three years?

Decribe their competitors relative postions today, and in three years?

Decribe to me how mobile data will be handled in TWO years?

 

I can do all these things will relative ease for BAC, SSW, and FFH, and be Mostly in the ballpark.

 

I dont think Byd is a good example of what your trying to illustrate.  It is a combination of things but certainly not a conventional value investment.  It allows Berk. which owns a slew of environmentally dubious companies to say they are part of the solution.  It is more like venture capital.  Its tiny in relation to Berk., likely a fraction the size of your Apple investment versus total capital. 

 

It allows Berk. to claim carbon offsets in the burgeoning carbon trade market. 

 

I do get what you are demonstrating with the example.  But, Apple lacks a conventional margin of safety so we have to look to earnings potential as the only way to value it.  So, one needs to be able to come up with a conservative estimate of what Apple can make on a perpetual (a few years) basis. 

 

To do that one needs to work out how much business will go to the competition, how much will go to Apple, and if it is sustainable.  I maintain the business, and therefore cash flow, is sustainable, but at a much lower level than 2011/2012.  You maintain that the cash flow will grow indefinitely, otherwise you would not be invested.  I cant place numbers on Apples cash flow that in any way justify the stock price.  I can only roughly say that I think it is overvalued much the way Buffett can say a guy is fat.

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So the stock sells off 5% because an analyst thinks their tablet market share might drop below 50% in 2016? That's logical.

 

Nice little drop today, could get interesting again.

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abcd Newbie

abcd

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So the stock sells off 5% because an analyst thinks their tablet market share might drop below 50% in 2016? That's logical.

 

Here are more frivolous explanations for your comfort.

 

Shares of Apple ($551.09, -$24.76, -4.30%) sank Wednesday, leaving observers grasping for a clear reason. StreetInsider.com pointed to clearing firms raising the margin requirement for clients seeking to buy shares to 60% from 30%. Forbes suggested traders may be reading into AT&T Inc.'s (T, $34.23, +$0.31, +0.91%) comments about smartphone sales. CNNMoney.com advanced a theory that investors are disappointed that Apple isn't paying out a special dividend, as are other companies, ahead of a potential dividend tax hike in the new year.

 

 

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bobp Newbie

bobp

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My daughter's mac-book crashed this week. In the middle of exam week it wouldn't boot up. Phone support tried to help but it didn't work. She brought it to the apple store where they told her they'd have an answer in two days. In two hours they called and had fixed it. They'd taken it apart and reattached a cable to the hard drive. It's three years old but she'd had another problem(water related but shhhh) eight months ago and they had replaced it and rewarrantied it for a year.

 

If my wife's Dell stops working, what do I do - bring it to Best-Buy? These Apple's are expensive but the support that comes with a retail store is worth a lot.

 

Never an Apple fan, and still not completely sold, we now have two Macbooks (one mine), a desktop, four iphones, an Ipad, and a bunch of old ipods. My kids buy music at itunes; I still think Itunes is horrible, but I use it.

 

After using the macbook for a few months I still prefer windows, but it may be the old dog - new tricks problem.

 

And btw, seeing as this is an investment board, I like the stock.

 

 

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Guest valueInv

Guest valueInv

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Google Maps is now available in the App Store.

 

Thank God!

 

Haha, someone implying Apple Maps was the way for Apple to force Google update its Google Maps on iOS :)

 

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/12/13/did-apple-get-exactly-what-it-wanted-for-users-in-google-maps-spat/

 

Haha, hilarious.  Apple fanboys are the best.

 

Must be this guy  ;):

http://gizmodo.com/5968089/samsungs-chief-strategy-officer-prefers-to-use-apple-at-home

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kevin4u2 Newbie

kevin4u2

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Apple bulls on the run? 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/14/ubs-slashes-apple-price-target/

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/apple-shares-trapped-in-the-death-cross-sink-further/article6358823/

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-iphone-5-arrives-in-china-but-market-is-moving-on/article6351743/

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/apple-bulls-on-the-run-analysts-take-a-hard-second-look/article6364327/

 

I always inquire about smartphone sales whenever I'm out an about, and lately I've notice a shift away from the iphone.  Definitely isn't the top seller anymore, Samsung way out in front.  Now these consumer fads are hard to predict till after the shift has occured.  Apple definitely has a lot more competition today than in the past. 

 

Some other reports are suggesting the ipad mini is cannibalizing ipad sales, that's not good for sales or margins either. 

 

 

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Guest valueInv

Guest valueInv

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Apple bulls on the run? 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/14/ubs-slashes-apple-price-target/

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/apple-shares-trapped-in-the-death-cross-sink-further/article6358823/

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-iphone-5-arrives-in-china-but-market-is-moving-on/article6351743/

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/apple-bulls-on-the-run-analysts-take-a-hard-second-look/article6364327/

 

I always inquire about smartphone sales whenever I'm out an about, and lately I've notice a shift away from the iphone.  Definitely isn't the top seller anymore, Samsung way out in front.  Now these consumer fads are hard to predict till after the shift has occured.  Apple definitely has a lot more competition today than in the past. 

 

Some other reports are suggesting the ipad mini is cannibalizing ipad sales, that's not good for sales or margins either.

 

Got an open buy order for 500

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txlaw Newbie

txlaw

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Walmart slashes iPhone 5 and iPad prices.  Cheers!

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100317764

 

wow, seems nuts!

 

They'll squeeze margins, but they may sell hell of alot more increasing revenues and earnings regardless.  We'll have to wait and see.  Cheers!

 

Makes sense if the goal is to get their products into the hands of everyone they can.  Although AAPL could see gross margin declines, as Sanjeev says, they could make up for this with increased sales. 

 

Because there is no question that tons of people would go with AAPL products over others if the price points were closer to those offered by GOOG and AMZN.

 

It will be very interesting to see what happens going forward.

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