Parsad Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So making $13 billion in 3 months is bad, but Netflix not posting a loss results in the stock going up 30%. Makes sense. Not in my opinion, but the reactions in the price is due to the expectations built around the businesses and expected valuation...not necessarily fundamentals. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So making $13 billion in 3 months is bad, but Netflix not posting a loss results in the stock going up 30%. Makes sense. The market is forward looking not backward looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 wow..down 10% now. A 3rd of their market cap is in cash now. Guess they said they're now going to give accurate guidance, which was low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I just listened to the conference call. We likely will get a nice entry point tomorrow. Should the stock continue to the low $400 we will get the buying opportunity of the year. kevin, you mention the market is forward looking... I am not so sure. If the market was forward looking it would give the company at least a little credit for breakthrough innovation. My read is the market is valuing APPL based only on what it is selling today. And what we have is AAPL with a number of aging businesses (from a tech perspective). AAPL launched the i-phone 6 years ago; the i-pad three years ago. The ipod provides a roadmap of what we can expect in terms on line extensions; Tim Cook inferred this on the call today. We WILL see a low cost iphone but not until they extract maximum profit with the existing premium devices. They launched the ipad mini once the ipad extracted maximum margin. Regarding cannibalization, Cook said today they welcome it; Cook said the mini will cannibalize ipad and mac sales; however, many minis will be going to first time apple customers and they find this often leads to the purchase of a second Apple device. These guys are smart like a fox. What I really like is their busines is going to stop them from communicating in a way that Wall Street likes... they are going to provide no hints or tips. The stock is going to be crazy volatile. I think right now we are approaching max pessimism (similar to a year ago). At some point during the coming year Apple will communicate some 'unexpected' line extensions (cheap i-phone) or breakthrough innovation (tv) and the shares will rocket higher. After listening to the conference call my watchout is perhaps Tim Cook is feeding us a bunch of BS (similar to Baislie at RIM about 18 months ago). I doubt it... but I will be paying attention to see if what they are saying between the lines actually materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I just listened to the conference call. We likely will get a nice entry point tomorrow. Should the stock continue to the low $400 we will get the buying opportunity of the year. kevin, you mention the market is forward looking... I am not so sure. If the market was forward looking it would give the company at least a little credit for breakthrough innovation. My read is the market is valuing APPL based only on what it is selling today. And what we have is AAPL with a number of aging businesses (from a tech perspective). AAPL launched the i-phone 6 years ago; the i-pad three years ago. The ipod provides a roadmap of what we can expect in terms on line extensions; Tim Cook inferred this on the call today. We WILL see a low cost iphone but not until they extract maximum profit with the existing premium devices. They launched the ipad mini once the ipad extracted maximum margin. Regarding cannibalization, Cook said today they welcome it; Cook said the mini will cannibalize ipad and mac sales; however, many minis will be going to first time apple customers and they find this often leads to the purchase of a second Apple device. These guys are smart like a fox. What I really like is their busines is going to stop them from communicating in a way that Wall Street likes... they are going to provide no hints or tips. The stock is going to be crazy volatile. I think right now we are approaching max pessimism (similar to a year ago). At some point during the coming year Apple will communicate some 'unexpected' line extensions (cheap i-phone) or breakthrough innovation (tv) and the shares will rocket higher. After listening to the conference call my watchout is perhaps Tim Cook is feeding us a bunch of BS (similar to Baislie at RIM about 18 months ago). I doubt it... but I will be paying attention to see if what they are saying between the lines actually materializes. Christmas came in January this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Regardless of what we think, it's fascinating to see the shares down 10% in after-hours. It just means that M.Market values the most followed company in the world 50B$ less in a matter of minutes, quite incredible! I would have said the same if it was going up the same amount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't have a dog in this fight but here's what a bond guru says. http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-on-425-apple-2013-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Some statistics about US smartphone market share....and other neat tables.... ====== Apple Smartphone US Share Over 50% According to Kantar 2013-01-23 Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/01/23/apple-smartphone-us-share-over-50-according-to-kantar/?partner=yahootix http://blogs-images.forbes.com/chuckjones/files/2013/01/Kantar-December-23-Smartphone-Market-Shares.png ----- Apple Estimates from 65 Analysts 2013-01-16 Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/01/16/apple-estimates-from-65-analysts/ ----- Handicapping Apple's quarterly earnings and revenue: Q1 2013 2013-02-15 Fortune.com http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/15/apple-revenue-earnings-smackdown-q1-2013/ http://blogs-images.forbes.com/chuckjones/files/2013/01/Fortune-December-quarter-analyst-estimates.png ----- Apple's Stock Price and Earnings Estimates. What It Could Mean When It Reports. 2013-01-22 Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/01/22/apples-stock-price-and-earnings-estimates-what-it-could-mean-when-it-reports/ http://blogs-images.forbes.com/chuckjones/files/2013/01/FactSet-Apple-December-Qtr-EPS-Estimates.png ----- Samsung Smartphones Gaining Momentum While iPhone Has Leveled Off 2013-01-16 Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/01/16/samsung-smartphones-gaining-momentum-while-iphone-has-leveled-off/ http://blogs-images.forbes.com/chuckjones/files/2013/01/ChangeWave-iPhone-December-2012.png http://blogs-images.forbes.com/chuckjones/files/2013/01/ChangeWave-Samsung-December-2012.png http://blogs-images.forbes.com/chuckjones/files/2013/01/Combined-Apple-and-Samsung-ChangeWave-December-2012.png ----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm neutral on Apple, but I'd like to wait until Tim Cook launches a product that is truly post-Jobs before initiating the position. I like the management team, but I want to see how they do before buying. iPhone Mini will be a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What I really like is their busines is going to stop them from communicating in a way that Wall Street likes... they are going to provide no hints or tips. The stock is going to be crazy volatile. I think right now we are approaching max pessimism (similar to a year ago). At some point during the coming year Apple will communicate some 'unexpected' line extensions (cheap i-phone) or breakthrough innovation (tv) and the shares will rocket higher. After listening to the conference call my watchout is perhaps Tim Cook is feeding us a bunch of BS (similar to Baislie at RIM about 18 months ago). I doubt it... but I will be paying attention to see if what they are saying between the lines actually materializes. I don't think the stock is anywhere near maximum pessimism. Alot of the retail folks own this stock and once they throw in the towel A nice price might show up. There is no rule that says they have to trade above cash. If a bunch of bloggers get on the rampage that apple is like a dinosaur and the cash is needed to get become relevant again, the perception will be there That they will be burning through cash. I'm probably more pessimistic then most on here due to the way RIMM spiraled out of control a couple of years back. With a what have you done for me today environment, the same thing could also happen to Apple. If apple is not communicating with the analyst the way they want (as you mentioned they will not be able to do) expect a lot of negative press and the negativity feeding on itself. (the same way it happened with RIM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I don't have a dog in this fight but here's what a bond guru says. http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-on-425-apple-2013-1 He said the if the stock closes below $483 tomorrow, it could fall to $425 very quickly. "I think it's coming this year for sure," he said. "That's an awfully long time window, I realize that. The ways it's looking now, it should probably happen this quarter." What's more is he said it could go to the $300 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundball100 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This all seems quite strange and unpredictable (except, predicting after the fact). Has any company in the history of the world ever had so much cash piled up on the balance sheet, or fallen so far in absolute market cap (even if only after-hours) after declaring a world-record profit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Apple's Margin Troubles Continue As Revenues Per iPad Tank 2013-01-23 Forbes.com Apple’s management highlighted their improved revenue performance, noting weekly revenue rose to $4.2 billion, from $3.3 billion a year ago. Apple seems to have hit a point of diminishing returns, where increasing revenues is actually detrimental to profit. Taking a closer look at its individual products, Apple hasn’t let its marquee product, the iPhone, hit that point of diminishing returns. While iPhone shipments came in below expectations, growing 29% to 47.8 million units, revenue per iPhone remained relatively steady from a year ago at $641.57. Apple’s tablet shipments jumped 48.1% to 22.9 million (just shy of the 30 million estimate), but revenue per iPad fell sharply, from $568.16 a year ago to $508.19 in the fourth quarter, to $469.93 in Q1; that’s a 17.3% drop in revenue per unit. revenue per Mac rose 7.1% to $1,359.02 revenue per iPod ticked up 2.9% to $169.02 ===== Apple holds an ace up its sleeve: the company is sitting on more than $137 billion in cash (more than $94 billion of that is held abroad) ===== http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/01/23/apples-margin-troubles-continue-as-revenues-per-ipad-tank/?partner=yahootix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Huh. There is a 3-4 week delay on the Macs and 1 week on the iPad mini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I just listened to the conference call. We likely will get a nice entry point tomorrow. Should the stock continue to the low $400 we will get the buying opportunity of the year. kevin, you mention the market is forward looking... I am not so sure. If the market was forward looking it would give the company at least a little credit for breakthrough innovation. My read is the market is valuing APPL based only on what it is selling today. And what we have is AAPL with a number of aging businesses (from a tech perspective). AAPL launched the i-phone 6 years ago; the i-pad three years ago. The ipod provides a roadmap of what we can expect in terms on line extensions; Tim Cook inferred this on the call today. We WILL see a low cost iphone but not until they extract maximum profit with the existing premium devices. They launched the ipad mini once the ipad extracted maximum margin. Regarding cannibalization, Cook said today they welcome it; Cook said the mini will cannibalize ipad and mac sales; however, many minis will be going to first time apple customers and they find this often leads to the purchase of a second Apple device. These guys are smart like a fox. What I really like is their busines is going to stop them from communicating in a way that Wall Street likes... they are going to provide no hints or tips. The stock is going to be crazy volatile. I think right now we are approaching max pessimism (similar to a year ago). At some point during the coming year Apple will communicate some 'unexpected' line extensions (cheap i-phone) or breakthrough innovation (tv) and the shares will rocket higher. After listening to the conference call my watchout is perhaps Tim Cook is feeding us a bunch of BS (similar to Baislie at RIM about 18 months ago). I doubt it... but I will be paying attention to see if what they are saying between the lines actually materializes. The market did look forward to innovation because of Steve Jobs but those days are over. Let be clear since everyone is ignoring the facts i'll lay some out there. First margins came down huge in this report. That is a huge red flag, why did it happen? Second, they welcome cannibalizing ipad sales? That is about the stupidest thing Cook could have said. Listen, I know they cannibalized ipod sales with the iphone but this is total different from ipad mini cannibalizing ipad sales. Iphone was a expansion and extension of the ipod. Sales and margins expanded. The ipad mini is a contraction of ipad functionality and is at a lower price point with lower margins. Totally different. Next iphone sales are under huge competitive pressure. Let's face it, iphone 5 sales have been dismal. Older devices are still selling but what happened with the iphone 5? That is a serious question. This is forward looking. I many of the analysts do independent research on sales all the time and the Samsung phones are really gaining popularity. As I said before, over xmas break every retailer I talked to said the galaxy s3 was selling anywhere between 3-1 to 7-1 over the iphone. Now the market is forward looking and it's asking what phone is going to be "popular" in the next few years. iphone now has big competition with the samsung galaxy s3, lumia 920, and the bb10 about to be released. Apple has other headwinds too, like mac sales falling sharply. What is apple's moat? I do believe they do have a small one but it's not huge. Consumer sales are not as sticky as enterprise, that is why many believe in RIM's rebound. Many enterprise customers will buy a bb10. Bruce Greenwald make the case very clear in this video. You can't say the market is forward looking. His comment on when will the tide will turn is very interesting. Just for disclosure, I don't have a position (nor would I bet on consumer preferences) but find this amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I just listened to the conference call. We likely will get a nice entry point tomorrow. Should the stock continue to the low $400 we will get the buying opportunity of the year. kevin, you mention the market is forward looking... I am not so sure. If the market was forward looking it would give the company at least a little credit for breakthrough innovation. My read is the market is valuing APPL based only on what it is selling today. And what we have is AAPL with a number of aging businesses (from a tech perspective). AAPL launched the i-phone 6 years ago; the i-pad three years ago. The ipod provides a roadmap of what we can expect in terms on line extensions; Tim Cook inferred this on the call today. We WILL see a low cost iphone but not until they extract maximum profit with the existing premium devices. They launched the ipad mini once the ipad extracted maximum margin. Regarding cannibalization, Cook said today they welcome it; Cook said the mini will cannibalize ipad and mac sales; however, many minis will be going to first time apple customers and they find this often leads to the purchase of a second Apple device. These guys are smart like a fox. What I really like is their busines is going to stop them from communicating in a way that Wall Street likes... they are going to provide no hints or tips. The stock is going to be crazy volatile. I think right now we are approaching max pessimism (similar to a year ago). At some point during the coming year Apple will communicate some 'unexpected' line extensions (cheap i-phone) or breakthrough innovation (tv) and the shares will rocket higher. After listening to the conference call my watchout is perhaps Tim Cook is feeding us a bunch of BS (similar to Baislie at RIM about 18 months ago). I doubt it... but I will be paying attention to see if what they are saying between the lines actually materializes. The market did look forward to innovation because of Steve Jobs but those days are over. Let be clear since everyone is ignoring the facts i'll lay some out there. First margins came down huge in this report. That is a huge red flag, why did it happen? Second, they welcome cannibalizing ipad sales? That is about the stupidest thing Cook could have said. Listen, I know they cannibalized ipod sales with the iphone but this is total different from ipad mini cannibalizing ipad sales. Iphone was a expansion and extension of the ipod. Sales and margins expanded. The ipad mini is a contraction of ipad functionality and is at a lower price point with lower margins. Totally different. Next iphone sales are under huge competitive pressure. Let's face it, iphone 5 sales have been dismal. Older devices are still selling but what happened with the iphone 5? That is a serious question. This is forward looking. I many of the analysts do independent research on sales all the time and the Samsung phones are really gaining popularity. As I said before, over xmas break every retailer I talked to said the galaxy s3 was selling anywhere between 3-1 to 7-1 over the iphone. Now the market is forward looking and it's asking what phone is going to be "popular" in the next few years. iphone now has big competition with the samsung galaxy s3, lumia 920, and the bb10 about to be released. Apple has other headwinds too, like mac sales falling sharply. What is apple's moat? I do believe they do have a small one but it's not huge. Consumer sales are not as sticky as enterprise, that is why many believe in RIM's rebound. Many enterprise customers will buy a bb10. Bruce Greenwald make the case very clear in this video. You can't say the market is forward looking. His comment on when will the tide will turn is very interesting. Just for disclosure, I don't have a position (nor would I bet on consumer preferences) but find this amusing. What country do you live in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not a bad quarter, but what is very concerning is the fact that management is comfortable doing nothing about the ridiculous cash hoard. The stock is at a ridiculous multiple, why not start buybacks?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What country do you live in? Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What country do you live in? Canada Yeah, Canada matters. ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not a bad quarter, but what is very concerning is the fact that management is comfortable doing nothing about the ridiculous cash hoard. The stock is at a ridiculous multiple, why not start buybacks?? Apple’s cash hoard reaches $137 billion 2013-01-23 $137,000,000,000 is a lot of money. In the three months of the quarter, Apple added $16 billion to its existing cash reserves of $121 billion. $94 billion of the total $137 billion is sitting offshore, CFO Peter Oppenheimer said. It would likely cost Apple billions in tax to repatriate it. http://venturebeat.com/2013/01/23/apples-cash-hoard-reaches-137-billion/ ----- Analyst: Apple's Cash Pile Could Grow To More Than $200 Billion Next Year 2012-06-01 BusinessInsider.com Andy Zaky, an analyst with Bullish Cross, projects that Apple's hoard will top $200 billion by the fourth quarter of 2013. http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-cash-balance-2013-2012-6 http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/4fc8e2fd69bedd0370000013-960/apple-inc-cash-growth.png ----- http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/500f10356bb3f7307b000009-960/apple-revenue-chart-of-the-day.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The law of large numbers has caught up to them, but they are still a cash machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What country do you live in? Canada Yeah, Canada matters. ;D ;D ;D What do you mean by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Apple's CEO Discusses F1Q 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript 2013-01-23 SeekingAlpha / Yahoo! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-ceo-discusses-f1q-2013-020404462.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 They've reached the point where growth will most likely be flat to negative for a while. Margins will likely continue to come down, so they will have to sell a lot more product to produce any growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 They've reached the point where growth will most likely be flat to negative for a while. Margins will likely continue to come down, so they will have to sell a lot more product to produce any growth. Yeah, I think to some extent they'll have to slash prices somewhat to increase marketshare in both iphones as well as desktops/laptops. Not saying a giant discount, but definitely will lower it somewhat. People like Apple things, but the prices on their computers are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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