AAPL - Apple Inc.

[DukeCrow]

I think these moves will help slow down, at the high end, the Android onslaught in Japan. Good for Apple! But the real growth continues to be customers with less means, buying their very first Android smartphone. I believe smartphone penetration in japan is only 40%. so lots of growth is going to happen at the low end.

 

2012

Among smartphone platforms, Android was the clear leader, growing to 64.1 percent in the June quarter, up from 62.2 percent in March. Apple’s iPhone actually dropped 1.4 percent in market share over the quarter, settling in at 32.3 percent. Microsoft came in at a distant third with 3.2 percent.

 

That’s another first, and the research firm says that Chinese handset makers like Huawei saw “sales jump 3 fold” during the final quarter, putting them in a better position than Japan’s local mobile makers.

 

Looking at raw market share numbers doesn't make sense. Why would Apple want to sell in unprofitable or marginally profitable segments of the market? Apple isn't playing that game. They will move down market, but they will do so in a slow, measured way and will avoid the unprofitable or marginally profitable segments. The 5c will shift their ASPs down slightly, so Apple is already starting the move downward.

 

Apple is still working on maximizing their share and profits in the subsidized market. Look at the rumored concessions they got from DoCoMo.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/12/docomo-said-to-have-promised-apple-40-of-sales-will-be-iphone

 

It makes no sense to release a substantially cheaper iPhone when there is still untapped demand (and profits) available at higher price points. I doubt Apple will address the unsibsidized market in a way most analysts/pundits are hoping. A way that would have caused those same analysts to then skewer Apple due to the margin compression that would have inevitably resulted. And I doubt Apple feels the need to rush into a marginally profitable segment of the market just because analysts say they need to.

 

[Guest valueInv]

I think these moves will help slow down, at the high end, the Android onslaught in Japan. Good for Apple! But the real growth continues to be customers with less means, buying their very first Android smartphone. I believe smartphone penetration in japan is only 40%. so lots of growth is going to happen at the low end.

 

2012

Among smartphone platforms, Android was the clear leader, growing to 64.1 percent in the June quarter, up from 62.2 percent in March. Apple’s iPhone actually dropped 1.4 percent in market share over the quarter, settling in at 32.3 percent. Microsoft came in at a distant third with 3.2 percent.

 

That’s another first, and the research firm says that Chinese handset makers like Huawei saw “sales jump 3 fold” during the final quarter, putting them in a better position than Japan’s local mobile makers.

 

Looking at raw market share numbers doesn't make sense. Why would Apple want to sell in unprofitable or marginally profitable segments of the market? Apple isn't playing that game. They will move down market, but they will do so in a slow, measured way and will avoid the unprofitable or marginally profitable segments. The 5c will shift their ASPs down slightly, so Apple is already starting the move downward.

 

Apple is still working on maximizing their share and profits in the subsidized market. Look at the rumored concessions they got from DoCoMo.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/12/docomo-said-to-have-promised-apple-40-of-sales-will-be-iphone

 

It makes no sense to release a substantially cheaper iPhone when there is still untapped demand (and profits) available at higher price points. I doubt Apple will address the unsibsidized market in a way most analysts/pundits are hoping. A way that would have caused those same analysts to then skewer Apple due to the margin compression that would have inevitably resulted. And I doubt Apple feels the need to rush into a marginally profitable segment of the market just because analysts say they need to.

 

Another thing about the article you posted - If DoCoMo promised 40% of their sales to Apple, guess who had the upper hand in the negotiations?

How is a platform that is losing marketshare dictating terms to powerful operators?

[DukeCrow]

Another thing about the article you posted - If DoCoMo promised 40% of their sales to Apple, guess who had the upper hand in the negotiations?

How is a platform that is losing marketshare dictating terms to powerful operators?

 

I guess Tim Cook has a reality distortion field he uses effectively in negotiations.  ;)

[hardincap]

I think these moves will help slow down, at the high end, the Android onslaught in Japan. Good for Apple! But the real growth continues to be customers with less means, buying their very first Android smartphone. I believe smartphone penetration in japan is only 40%. so lots of growth is going to happen at the low end.

 

2012

Among smartphone platforms, Android was the clear leader, growing to 64.1 percent in the June quarter, up from 62.2 percent in March. Apple’s iPhone actually dropped 1.4 percent in market share over the quarter, settling in at 32.3 percent. Microsoft came in at a distant third with 3.2 percent.

 

That’s another first, and the research firm says that Chinese handset makers like Huawei saw “sales jump 3 fold” during the final quarter, putting them in a better position than Japan’s local mobile makers.

 

Looking at raw market share numbers doesn't make sense. Why would Apple want to sell in unprofitable or marginally profitable segments of the market? Apple isn't playing that game. They will move down market, but they will do so in a slow, measured way and will avoid the unprofitable or marginally profitable segments. The 5c will shift their ASPs down slightly, so Apple is already starting the move downward.

 

Apple is still working on maximizing their share and profits in the subsidized market. Look at the rumored concessions they got from DoCoMo.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/12/docomo-said-to-have-promised-apple-40-of-sales-will-be-iphone

 

It makes no sense to release a substantially cheaper iPhone when there is still untapped demand (and profits) available at higher price points. I doubt Apple will address the unsibsidized market in a way most analysts/pundits are hoping. A way that would have caused those same analysts to then skewer Apple due to the margin compression that would have inevitably resulted. And I doubt Apple feels the need to rush into a marginally profitable segment of the market just because analysts say they need to.

 

Another thing about the article you posted - If DoCoMo promised 40% of their sales to Apple, guess who had the upper hand in the negotiations?

How is a platform that is losing marketshare dictating terms to powerful operators?

 

quite simple really: ios is the most popular platform in japan.

 

does apple have the same leverage on china? no.

[Guest valueInv]

I think these moves will help slow down, at the high end, the Android onslaught in Japan. Good for Apple! But the real growth continues to be customers with less means, buying their very first Android smartphone. I believe smartphone penetration in japan is only 40%. so lots of growth is going to happen at the low end.

 

2012

Among smartphone platforms, Android was the clear leader, growing to 64.1 percent in the June quarter, up from 62.2 percent in March. Apple’s iPhone actually dropped 1.4 percent in market share over the quarter, settling in at 32.3 percent. Microsoft came in at a distant third with 3.2 percent.

 

That’s another first, and the research firm says that Chinese handset makers like Huawei saw “sales jump 3 fold” during the final quarter, putting them in a better position than Japan’s local mobile makers.

 

Looking at raw market share numbers doesn't make sense. Why would Apple want to sell in unprofitable or marginally profitable segments of the market? Apple isn't playing that game. They will move down market, but they will do so in a slow, measured way and will avoid the unprofitable or marginally profitable segments. The 5c will shift their ASPs down slightly, so Apple is already starting the move downward.

 

Apple is still working on maximizing their share and profits in the subsidized market. Look at the rumored concessions they got from DoCoMo.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/12/docomo-said-to-have-promised-apple-40-of-sales-will-be-iphone

 

It makes no sense to release a substantially cheaper iPhone when there is still untapped demand (and profits) available at higher price points. I doubt Apple will address the unsibsidized market in a way most analysts/pundits are hoping. A way that would have caused those same analysts to then skewer Apple due to the margin compression that would have inevitably resulted. And I doubt Apple feels the need to rush into a marginally profitable segment of the market just because analysts say they need to.

 

Another thing about the article you posted - If DoCoMo promised 40% of their sales to Apple, guess who had the upper hand in the negotiations?

How is a platform that is losing marketshare dictating terms to powerful operators?

 

quite simple really: ios is the most popular platform in japan.

 

does apple have the same leverage on china? no.

 

Let me guess - you sold your AAPL?

[hardincap]

I think these moves will help slow down, at the high end, the Android onslaught in Japan. Good for Apple! But the real growth continues to be customers with less means, buying their very first Android smartphone. I believe smartphone penetration in japan is only 40%. so lots of growth is going to happen at the low end.

 

2012

Among smartphone platforms, Android was the clear leader, growing to 64.1 percent in the June quarter, up from 62.2 percent in March. Apple’s iPhone actually dropped 1.4 percent in market share over the quarter, settling in at 32.3 percent. Microsoft came in at a distant third with 3.2 percent.

 

That’s another first, and the research firm says that Chinese handset makers like Huawei saw “sales jump 3 fold” during the final quarter, putting them in a better position than Japan’s local mobile makers.

 

Looking at raw market share numbers doesn't make sense. Why would Apple want to sell in unprofitable or marginally profitable segments of the market? Apple isn't playing that game. They will move down market, but they will do so in a slow, measured way and will avoid the unprofitable or marginally profitable segments. The 5c will shift their ASPs down slightly, so Apple is already starting the move downward.

 

Apple is still working on maximizing their share and profits in the subsidized market. Look at the rumored concessions they got from DoCoMo.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/12/docomo-said-to-have-promised-apple-40-of-sales-will-be-iphone

 

It makes no sense to release a substantially cheaper iPhone when there is still untapped demand (and profits) available at higher price points. I doubt Apple will address the unsibsidized market in a way most analysts/pundits are hoping. A way that would have caused those same analysts to then skewer Apple due to the margin compression that would have inevitably resulted. And I doubt Apple feels the need to rush into a marginally profitable segment of the market just because analysts say they need to.

 

Another thing about the article you posted - If DoCoMo promised 40% of their sales to Apple, guess who had the upper hand in the negotiations?

How is a platform that is losing marketshare dictating terms to powerful operators?

 

quite simple really: ios is the most popular platform in japan.

 

does apple have the same leverage on china? no.

 

Let me guess - you sold your AAPL?

 

you think i sold apple because...? am i not allowed to be critical of management and bullish the stock at the same time? classic one-dimensional thinking from you.

[DukeCrow]

quite simple really: ios is the most popular platform in japan.

 

does apple have the same leverage on china? no.

 

I think iOS and Android are virtually even in Japan. Of course, with DoCoMo being Japan's largest carrier, I assume iOS will be able to build a little lead now.

 

Japan is the second largest market for Google Play. It will be interesting to see if this eats into that. 

[hardincap]

quite simple really: ios is the most popular platform in japan.

 

does apple have the same leverage on china? no.

 

I think iOS and Android are virtually even in Japan. Of course, with DoCoMo being Japan's largest carrier, I assume iOS will be able to build a little lead now.

 

Japan is the second largest market for Google Play. It will be interesting to see if this eats into that.

 

the japanese LOVE the iphone. according to kantar, as of april, it was 50 to 44 ios vs android. xmas quarter will undoubtedly tilt the balance further in ios' favor, considering that carriers are effectively offering the 5s for free w/ contract.

[Guest valueInv]

I think these moves will help slow down, at the high end, the Android onslaught in Japan. Good for Apple! But the real growth continues to be customers with less means, buying their very first Android smartphone. I believe smartphone penetration in japan is only 40%. so lots of growth is going to happen at the low end.

 

2012

Among smartphone platforms, Android was the clear leader, growing to 64.1 percent in the June quarter, up from 62.2 percent in March. Apple’s iPhone actually dropped 1.4 percent in market share over the quarter, settling in at 32.3 percent. Microsoft came in at a distant third with 3.2 percent.

 

That’s another first, and the research firm says that Chinese handset makers like Huawei saw “sales jump 3 fold” during the final quarter, putting them in a better position than Japan’s local mobile makers.

 

Looking at raw market share numbers doesn't make sense. Why would Apple want to sell in unprofitable or marginally profitable segments of the market? Apple isn't playing that game. They will move down market, but they will do so in a slow, measured way and will avoid the unprofitable or marginally profitable segments. The 5c will shift their ASPs down slightly, so Apple is already starting the move downward.

 

Apple is still working on maximizing their share and profits in the subsidized market. Look at the rumored concessions they got from DoCoMo.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/12/docomo-said-to-have-promised-apple-40-of-sales-will-be-iphone

 

It makes no sense to release a substantially cheaper iPhone when there is still untapped demand (and profits) available at higher price points. I doubt Apple will address the unsibsidized market in a way most analysts/pundits are hoping. A way that would have caused those same analysts to then skewer Apple due to the margin compression that would have inevitably resulted. And I doubt Apple feels the need to rush into a marginally profitable segment of the market just because analysts say they need to.

 

Another thing about the article you posted - If DoCoMo promised 40% of their sales to Apple, guess who had the upper hand in the negotiations?

How is a platform that is losing marketshare dictating terms to powerful operators?

 

quite simple really: ios is the most popular platform in japan.

 

does apple have the same leverage on china? no.

 

Let me guess - you sold your AAPL?

 

you think i sold apple because...? am i not allowed to be critical of management and bullish the stock at the same time? classic one-dimensional thinking from you.

 

I find it amusing that even people who are critical of Apple own it. Logic dictates that if you think the company is failing, you sell the stock and buy something that has a future. That must be some reality distortion field... ;D ;D ;D

[hardincap]

::) There's a pretty big difference between being critical of mgmt for certain moves and thinking the company is failing. Don't you think?

[Palantir]

Every single thing he says can be translated into "Apple can do no wrong".

 

I criticize Apple all the time, but I'm long, and looking to add more at the right price.

[Guest valueInv]

Every single thing he says can be translated into "Apple can do no wrong".

 

I criticize Apple all the time, but I'm long, and looking to add more at the right price.

Actually, I have been he first to criticize them

When I thought they made mistakes like during the maps fiasco.

 

Btw, I also think the need to amp up their marketing.

[Guest valueInv]

::) There's a pretty big difference between being critical of mgmt for certain moves and thinking the company is failing. Don't you think?

 

Ok, then do tell us your thesis for Apple. Why do you think the stock is a buy?

[hardincap]

::) There's a pretty big difference between being critical of mgmt for certain moves and thinking the company is failing. Don't you think?

 

Ok, then do tell us your thesis for Apple. Why do you think the stock is a buy?

 

::)

[Guest valueInv]

::) There's a pretty big difference between being critical of mgmt for certain moves and thinking the company is failing. Don't you think?

 

Ok, then do tell us your thesis for Apple. Why do you think the stock is a buy?

 

::)

Yeah, I'm not surprised.

[hardincap]

::) There's a pretty big difference between being critical of mgmt for certain moves and thinking the company is failing. Don't you think?

 

Ok, then do tell us your thesis for Apple. Why do you think the stock is a buy?

 

::)

Yeah, I'm not surprised.

 

LOL

[rjstc]

::) There's a pretty big difference between being critical of mgmt for certain moves and thinking the company is failing. Don't you think?

 

Ok, then do tell us your thesis for Apple. Why do you think the stock is a buy?

 

 

 

::)

Yeah, I'm not surprised.

 

 

 

LOL

 

 

Many people are critical of Microsoft management and yet they still own the stock. They think the business could be run better and more profitably. What's wrong with that? Same with apple

[Guest wellmont]

 

Many people are critical of Microsoft management and yet they still own the stock. They think the business could be run better and more profitably. What's wrong with that? Same with apple

 

there is a long long tradition of shareholders criticizing or questioning the way managers run Their company. Buffett has done it himself. I find it strange that some otherwise very smart investors expect every shareholder to fall into line for every decision that is made by management, or else hold your tongue. Few of us can be activist shareholders. But we can act and think like them, and thus make ourselves better owners. Managements work for us. Not the other way around.

[Guest valueInv]

 

Many people are critical of Microsoft management and yet they still own the stock. They think the business could be run better and more profitably. What's wrong with that? Same with apple

 

there is a long long tradition of shareholders criticizing or questioning the way managers run Their company. Buffett has done it himself. I find it strange that some otherwise very smart investors expect every shareholder to fall into line for every decision that is made by management, or else hold your tongue. Few of us can be activist shareholders. But we can act and think like them, and thus make ourselves better owners. Managements work for us. Not the other way around.

 

Alright, explain the thesis where Tim Cook is doing all the wrong things and Apple still turns out to be a good investment.

[Guest wellmont]

i think you're making the wrong demand. I don't think any of the critics have ever suggested that TC is making ALL the wrong decisions. the problem arises with all or nothing statements. it really hasn't been like that from critics on this thread or any of the threads here. I happen to own apple and bbry and msft.

 

I think this is one of the big issues that prevails on investment message boards

 

"Commitment and Consistency - If people commit, orally or in writing, to an idea or goal, they are more likely to honor that commitment because of establishing that idea or goal as being congruent with their self-image. Even if the original incentive or motivation is removed after they have already agreed, they will continue to honor the agreement.

 

I believe that people become so emotionally attached to their stocks, that they perceive any criticism of the security or management as direct attack on their self image.

[rjstc]

 

Many people are critical of Microsoft management and yet they still own the stock. They think the business could be run better and more profitably. What's wrong with that? Same with apple

 

there is a long long tradition of shareholders criticizing or questioning the way managers run Their company. Buffett has done it himself. I find it strange that some otherwise very smart investors expect every shareholder to fall into line for every decision that is made by management, or else hold your tongue. Few of us can be activist shareholders. But we can act and think like them, and thus make ourselves better owners. Managements work for us. Not the other way around.

 

Alright, explain the thesis where Tim Cook is doing all the wrong things and Apple still turns out to be a good investment.

 

Some say Steve Balmer has done some things that have hindered value creation. Skype,Nokia,etc. Still they have some great monopolies that endure. Much of what's going on at apple is legacy from Jobs'. They will be very profitable for years.

 

  But I think what you really like to do I've noticed is argue!

 

[hardincap]

i think you're making the wrong demand. I don't think any of the critics have ever suggested that TC is making ALL the wrong decisions. the problem arises with all or nothing statements. it really hasn't been like that from critics on this thread or any of the threads here. I happen to own apple and bbry and msft.

 

I think this is one of the big issues that prevails on investment message boards

 

"Commitment and Consistency - If people commit, orally or in writing, to an idea or goal, they are more likely to honor that commitment because of establishing that idea or goal as being congruent with their self-image. Even if the original incentive or motivation is removed after they have already agreed, they will continue to honor the agreement.

 

some people have a problem where their ego is far larger than their apparent (lack of) intellect can afford. making all or nothing statements is the mark of a primitive, inferior thinker.

[Guest valueInv]

i think you're making the wrong demand. I don't think any of the critics have ever suggested that TC is making ALL the wrong decisions. the problem arises with all or nothing statements. it really hasn't been like that from critics on this thread or any of the threads here. I happen to own apple and bbry and msft.

 

I think this is one of the big issues that prevails on investment message boards

 

"Commitment and Consistency - If people commit, orally or in writing, to an idea or goal, they are more likely to honor that commitment because of establishing that idea or goal as being congruent with their self-image. Even if the original incentive or motivation is removed after they have already agreed, they will continue to honor the agreement.

 

I believe that people become so emotionally attached to their stocks, that they perceive any criticism of the security or management as direct attack on their self image.

 

Thanks for th Cialdini quote. Alright, let me expand the question. What is TC doing rigt, what is he doing wrong? What is your thesis based on it?

[Guest wellmont]

apple seems cheap on the numbers. and tc has been "persuaded" to start returning capital to shareholders, which I believe, goes against his and his predecessors instincts. and there is a chance he could do more as the issue gets more media attention. i  believe tc is a highly qualified professional manager who does not necessarily view shareholder concerns as equal to other goals of the business of apple computer inc.

[Guest valueInv]

apple seems cheap on the numbers. and tc has been "persuaded" to start returning capital to shareholders, which I believe, goes against his and his predecessors instincts. and there is a chance he could do more as the issue gets more media attention. i  believe tc is a highly qualified professional manager who does not necessarily view shareholder concerns as equal to other goals of the business of apple computer inc.

 

There are 2 ways they are return capital: dividends and buybacks. The dividends are small and unlikely to be a big driver of returns for shareholders. So that leaves us with buybacks. With guys like Icahn pushing for bigger buybacks, it is likely that an increases in capital return is going to be in the form of buybacks.

 

Now, let's say Apple's business is declining. Looking at RIM, Palm and Nokia tells you that declines are quick and violent. In that case, Apple's buybacks are likely to not create much value. In fact, they might be better off holding the cash and then returning it in the form of dividends or buybacks years down the road. The price they are paying to buyback their shares would be too high right now.

 

So, in the scenario where Apple is not able to defend its business, where are the returns for shareholders?