AAPL - Apple Inc.

[texual]

My thoughts on Apple are complicated but I will certainly help by sharing my investment concerns. Since you asked about Apple TV I will share my findings:

 

This future television product by Apple may very well turn out a blockbuster. I have no idea about that but I did some searching around. First of all I don't see the product happening this year, or even most of next. They've got a new iPhone this winter, and will attempt another iPad model next year. Also you may notice that the TV business is going through a bit of a metamorphasis: a lot of mergers, feuding studios and distribution channels are growing and shifting. It really isn't the best time to start a TV product until the dust settles.

 

It also turns out Microsoft has a much better shot at winning this market segment. The Xbox is growing rapidly and there is renewed focus on the product as a entertainment hub. People apparently use their Xbox to stream content more hours than playing games! Apple does not have 60+ million households hooked up to their TV product. And if you recall the Xbox 360 was released in 2005/2006 and the Apple TV in 2007. However Xbox as a streaming and media console really didn't take off until after 2010. In that short a time I believe Microsoft has a trojan horse already sitting in millions of homes.

 

I believe the next iteration of Xbox will present a full home theater, entertainment, and television hub. It will be lucrative and successful.

 

So thats one part of it. Another part is how the Windows 8 platform works between phones, tablets and the xbox to deliver a singular environment. People will appreciate that Xbox is something you can use to listen to music, watch tv and play games, and its controllable from many points or hubs. It's really smart.

 

Apple so far has not got that much stickiness. Sure they've got iOS on the phone and iPad, and its melding with OSX but I don't see how they infect the home theater like Xbox. I mean, you have to have a TV thats hooked up to a device. Apple can try all it wants, but short of selling a full television with a sick design and great features (which is also costly) I don't see that product from Apple taking off like the iPhone or iPad. They've had a few years of Apple TV and it really hasn't given me reason to believe they can pull this off.

 

My opinion is that unless you really want to bet on their fourth Messiah product, TV isn't the one. So that leaves me with no product that I can predict with reasonable accuracy that would logically follow a music player, a phone, and a slate (all of which I believe were well known and hyped before their release).

 

My expectations is that Apple will milk the phone and tablet market for a few years and grow their laptop businesses just fine. However, just like the iPod there will come a time when everyone has a iPhone and the iPad has become a commodity product. They'll make plenty of money from this existing model but I don't particularly see another decade like the last. Hope that helps.

[texual]

A poster here mentioned that he owned the shares for 10 years, and I believe that is a smart investment return! You need not worry about a loss of capital at this point in the game. I was simply suggesting a new investor in Apple will NOT retain those percentages going forward. I really give you props for holding on longer than I did, and I consider myself a forever type holder.

 

That also would mean your dividend returns would be amazing, and you would be better off holding the stock and collecting those payments and let whatever happen, happen! But for me, my investment thesis did come to an end a bit premature in 2010 when I saw that the major pieces of this company had come into place and Jobs was on his last few months with the company. I don't regret selling those shares and I don't think he can be replaced. I like Tim Cook a lot, but he ain't Steve. That said, Apple is a great American company up there with the best of the Dow industrials and will likely be here for another generation. Hopefully they can find ways to build consumer products that are smash hits. But for me those hits were 1. the ipod, 2. the iphone and lastly 3. the ipad. After that the tunnel ends, my rides over.

 

Best of luck to everyone.

[DCG]

My thoughts on Apple are complicated but I will certainly help by sharing my investment concerns. Since you asked about Apple TV I will share my findings:

 

This future television product by Apple may very well turn out a blockbuster. I have no idea about that but I did some searching around. First of all I don't see the product happening this year, or even most of next. They've got a new iPhone this winter, and will attempt another iPad model next year. Also you may notice that the TV business is going through a bit of a metamorphasis: a lot of mergers, feuding studios and distribution channels are growing and shifting. It really isn't the best time to start a TV product until the dust settles.

 

It also turns out Microsoft has a much better shot at winning this market segment. The Xbox is growing rapidly and there is renewed focus on the product as a entertainment hub. People apparently use their Xbox to stream content more hours than playing games! Apple does not have 60+ million households hooked up to their TV product. And if you recall the Xbox 360 was released in 2005/2006 and the Apple TV in 2007. However Xbox as a streaming and media console really didn't take off until after 2010. In that short a time I believe Microsoft has a trojan horse already sitting in millions of homes.

 

I believe the next iteration of Xbox will present a full home theater, entertainment, and television hub. It will be lucrative and successful.

 

So thats one part of it. Another part is how the Windows 8 platform works between phones, tablets and the xbox to deliver a singular environment. People will appreciate that Xbox is something you can use to listen to music, watch tv and play games, and its controllable from many points or hubs. It's really smart.

 

Apple so far has not got that much stickiness. Sure they've got iOS on the phone and iPad, and its melding with OSX but I don't see how they infect the home theater like Xbox. I mean, you have to have a TV thats hooked up to a device. Apple can try all it wants, but short of selling a full television with a sick design and great features (which is also costly) I don't see that product from Apple taking off like the iPhone or iPad. They've had a few years of Apple TV and it really hasn't given me reason to believe they can pull this off.

 

My opinion is that unless you really want to bet on their fourth Messiah product, TV isn't the one. So that leaves me with no product that I can predict with reasonable accuracy that would logically follow a music player, a phone, and a slate (all of which I believe were well known and hyped before their release).

 

My expectations is that Apple will milk the phone and tablet market for a few years and grow their laptop businesses just fine. However, just like the iPod there will come a time when everyone has a iPhone and the iPad has become a commodity product. They'll make plenty of money from this existing model but I don't particularly see another decade like the last. Hope that helps.

 

I've owned Apple stock for about 5 & 1/2 years and I've heard people saying this same type of thing for the last 6 or so years. 

[DCG]

The main area I've noticed a drop in quality without Steve Jobs is in their marketing. There have been several television ads that there's no way Jobs would have approved. The ads during the Olympics to tonight being the worst of them so far.

[Guest valueInv]

The main area I've noticed a drop in quality without Steve Jobs is in their marketing. There have been several television ads that there's no way Jobs would have approved. The ads during the Olympics to tonight being the worst of them so far.

 

It looks like they're appealing to a different audience with a different level of sophistication. They are finally marketing a different aspect of their offering - their service and their store experience.

 

I think they need to break from the inspirational style of ads they've been using. It's losing its novelty and competitors are copying the style. In that sense,

these ads are long overdue. I would have run them once Windows 8 came out. It would position the Mac as a easy, comfortable alternative to the confusion facing users with the brand new Metro interface.

 

But I wouldn't call these their best work either. A little reminiscent of the old Mac Vs PC ads.

[Guest valueInv]

So Apple's been thinking about a 7 inch tablet for a year and a half right now:

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/us-apple-samsung-trial-idUSBRE87118P20120803

[Guest valueInv]

iPad increases marketshare:

http://gigaom.com/apple/apple-keeps-vise-like-grip-on-tablet-market-for-now/

 

And the iPhone gains marketshare ahead of iPhone 5 in the US:

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57482090-37/android-loses-ground-to-apple-in-second-quarter/

http://www.engadget.com/2012/08/01/comscore-android-back-above-51-percent-of-us-share-ios-still-up/

[Guest valueInv]

First Maps, now YouTube:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/06/youtube-app-removed-from-ios-6-because-apples-licensing-agreement-is-over/

 

Apparently, the licensing deal is over. I guess they signed a 5 year deal for YouTube. Wonder how many years their search deal was signed for?

[DCG]

'Don’t fret too much though, because Apple reports that Google is working on its own iOS-friendly YouTube app for inclusion in the iOS App Store.'.

[Guest valueInv]

Money can't buy publicity like this:

 

http://mashable.com/2012/08/06/apple-nasa-ad-photo/

[bargainman]

Money can't buy publicity like this:

 

http://mashable.com/2012/08/06/apple-nasa-ad-photo/

 

Or this....

 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/07/technology/mat-honan-hacked/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3

 

[Guest valueInv]

Money can't buy publicity like this:

 

http://mashable.com/2012/08/06/apple-nasa-ad-photo/

 

Or this....

 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/07/technology/mat-honan-hacked/index.htm?hpt=hp_t3

http://www.engadget.com/2012/08/07/amazon-apple-stop-taking-key-account-changes-over-the-phone/

 

[Guest valueInv]

Looks like the new TV product is pretty close:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577593693481339210.html

[Guest valueInv]

Something good cooking up in the security/payments side:

 

http://gigaom.com/apple/pre-merger-apple-authentec-were-working-on-new-tech-together/

[Guest valueInv]

The story of Xerox and Apple:

 

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/16/110516fa_fact_gladwell?currentPage=all

[Guest hellsten]

http://www.ifoapplestore.com/db/2012/08/27/reports-persist-of-budget-cuts-emphasis-on-revenue/

 

Despite a public acknowledgement by Apple that recent retail store staffing changes were “a mistake” and have been reversed, store employees still haven’t received an official explanation of the changes, and signs persist of a continuing focus on revenues and profit instead of customer satisfaction. Sources say employee performance standards have changed to emphasize the employee sales functions, more small products will be stocked at the stores, and that several budget categories have been slashed, including for store maintenance. All the while, morale continues to drift lower among many retail store employees.

…

But in 2009, Jobs took six months of medical leave and put Tim Cook in charge of the company, including the retail stores. Cook is primarily an “operations guy,” sources explain, and his natural focus is revenues and profits, not customers. While Jobs was away, Cook and chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer began to confront Johnson on his customer-centric retail philosophy—both felt the stores didn’t generate enough revenues to justify operating expenses.

…

According to accounts, Cook pushed Johnson “quite hard” about how other channels were selling more Mac’s per-capita than the retail stores. Without Jobs’ support, Johnson found it was nearly impossible to keep Cook and Oppenheimer from switching the chain’s primary purpose from a superior experience to revenues.

…

Last year when Cook became the permanent CEO, he hired Browett from UK-based Dixons to head the retail chain. Cook was apparently attracted by Browett’s like-minded focus on the more traditional concepts of retailing—logic and process leading to revenues and profits. With his new position as CEO and staffed with a revenue-focused Sr. VP, Cook naturally moved the retail operation in different directions, the sources say, resulting in last month’s staffing changes.

 

This could be just rumors. Who knows... The comments are also interesting.

 

What would happen to Dell or Microsoft if the founder(s) died?

[Guest valueInv]

Best description of what new features mean:

 

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2012/09/05/whats-tim-cooks-one-more-thing-for-iphone-5/

[bathtime]

"AMD Poaches Jim Keller from Apple, One of Greatest Contemporary CPU Architects"

 

http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/2012/8/1/amd-poaches-jim-keller-from-apple2c-one-of-greatest-contemporary-cpu-architects.aspx

 

"Following stints in BroadCom and PA Semi, Jim ended up in Apple, where he lead "a small team" to create SoC designs for Apple, more known as the A4, A5 and the A5x. Based on our conversations with the insider sources, Jim also worked on the A6 SoC, the next-generation chip which will power Apple's products in 2013 onward. Our sources also state that the 'silicon renaissance' is over at Apple, and the brightest minds are shopping around to see where they could land."

 

Will AAPL lose talent because the upside in terms of equity appreciation is limited at a company with the largest market cap?

[txlaw]

So what are people thinking about the new Kindles?  I haven't gotten a chance to really delve into the specs and features, but the discounted 4G subscription seems like a brilliant move by Amazon. 

 

The competition heats up even more!

[Guest valueInv]

"AMD Poaches Jim Keller from Apple, One of Greatest Contemporary CPU Architects"

 

http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/2012/8/1/amd-poaches-jim-keller-from-apple2c-one-of-greatest-contemporary-cpu-architects.aspx

 

"Following stints in BroadCom and PA Semi, Jim ended up in Apple, where he lead "a small team" to create SoC designs for Apple, more known as the A4, A5 and the A5x. Based on our conversations with the insider sources, Jim also worked on the A6 SoC, the next-generation chip which will power Apple's products in 2013 onward. Our sources also state that the 'silicon renaissance' is over at Apple, and the brightest minds are shopping around to see where they could land."

 

Will AAPL lose talent because the upside in terms of equity appreciation is limited at a company with the largest market cap?

 

Are people really working at Apple for equity appreciation? Do you know that Apple is not generous at all with stock for its rank and file employees?

 

Apple is not a chip company. They haven't done anything interesting with chips yet. Keller (and others) would not have made much of an impact working there. He'll controls a lot more at AMD, so he left.

 

Frankly, I don't think it makes much sense for Apple to be designing its own chips - they certainly have had no advantage with that in the iDevices. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple switch to commodity chips in the future.

 

 

[Liberty]

I don't know, Apple has bought two chip design firms (PA Semi and Intrinsity), I think they'll probably keep designing them but based on the ARM standard, which means they don't have to do all the heavy lifting of making something from the ground up.

 

I think there's an advantage to doing some chip design in-house, though I hope they won't start buying/building fabs. That's the part that is best left outsourced.

[Guest valueInv]

I don't know, Apple has bought two chip design firms (PA Semi and Intrinsity), I think they'll probably keep designing them but based on the ARM standard, which means they don't have to do all the heavy lifting of making something from the ground up.

 

I think there's an advantage to doing some chip design in-house, though I hope they won't start buying/building fabs. That's the part that is best left outsourced.

 

Whats the advantage?

[Guest valueInv]

So what are people thinking about the new Kindles?  I haven't gotten a chance to really delve into the specs and features, but the discounted 4G subscription seems like a brilliant move by Amazon. 

 

The competition heats up even more!

 

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409389,00.asp

 

 

[Liberty]

Whats the advantage?

 

Getting exactly the designs you want without letting your competitors have access to them or outsourcing it to a third party over which you don't have complete control (and which can leak things or make blunders that are harder to prevent from outside). It fits with Apple's strategy of vertical integration when it comes to design (as opposed to manufacturing).

 

I think there's a fair chance that over time Apple's silicon will become more and more differentiated from the competition, as efforts from the recently acquired companies have time to bear fruits. Who knows, maybe we'll hear more about that on the 12th.

 

To inverse things: Why do you think it would be better for them to go with commodity chips? (as opposed to leveraging general ARM improvements and then adding some custom stuff on top)

[Guest valueInv]

Whats the advantage?

 

Getting exactly the designs you want without letting your competitors have access to them or outsourcing it to a third party over which you don't have complete control (and which can leak things or make blunders that are harder to prevent from outside). It fits with Apple's strategy of vertical integration when it comes to design (as opposed to manufacturing).

 

I think there's a fair chance that over time Apple's silicon will become more and more differentiated from the competition, as efforts from the recently acquired companies have time to bear fruits. Who knows, maybe we'll hear more about that on the 12th.

 

To inverse things: Why do you think it would be better for them to go with commodity chips? (as opposed to leveraging general ARM improvements and then adding some custom stuff on top)

 

Apple hasn't produced anything that seems to be better than its competitors and gives it an edge. Qualcomm, etc are revving faster with more clock speed, more cores, better consumption, etc. Differentiation only works if what you have is better. The top people leaving tells me that Apple is not doing anything interesting enough for them to stay. Apple has been through multiple generations of its Ax series without any advantage. Are they going to suddenly product chips far better than anything else out there?

 

On the flip side, they are dependent on their biggest competitor for their chip manufacturing. Samsung uses an identical chip in its phones. Not only are they adding to their competitors profits but also giving them economies of scale which it then uses to undercut Apple in price.