AAPL - Apple Inc.

[jeffmori7]

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/09/23First-Weekend-iPhone-Sales-Top-Nine-Million-Sets-New-Record.html

 

Maybe Apple knows the business of iPhones better than a bunch of wall street analysts. Peter Misek -- I'm looking at you.

 

Impressive! I wonder how it is distributed among the two models? And it would not include 4S that are still being sold.

[Palantir]

Regarding Clayton Christensen, I think the way to think about Apple is as an "experience" company, not a technology firm. Apple is a company that benefits from advancements in technology which they can package together to amplify the customer experience. Company like Google on the other hand isn't doing that, a new technology is much more likely to disrupt their core business model.

[Guest valueInv]

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/09/23First-Weekend-iPhone-Sales-Top-Nine-Million-Sets-New-Record.html

 

Maybe Apple knows the business of iPhones better than a bunch of wall street analysts. Peter Misek -- I'm looking at you.

 

9M is amazing, but I wish Cook had kept this information to himself and bought back a ton of stock at 470. Now it'll be hard for the stock to get back down there, at least in the near future.

 

But the 5c is DOA ;)

 

of course you have to twist what i said to fit your thesis, just like how you completely misinterpreted an article and had to have someone spell it out for you.  ::)

 

my bad interpretation led me to buy the stock when it dropped to 450 a few days ago. ;)

 

good for you. i added at 450 too but im not bragging about it.  ::)

 

Really, what was your thesis?

[Liberty]

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/09/23First-Weekend-iPhone-Sales-Top-Nine-Million-Sets-New-Record.html

 

Maybe Apple knows the business of iPhones better than a bunch of wall street analysts. Peter Misek -- I'm looking at you.

 

Impressive! I wonder how it is distributed among the two models? And it would not include 4S that are still being sold.

 

It's even more impressive when you consider that they are supply constrained for the 5S.

[krazeenyc]

ValueInv

 

I think a lot of us  bought/own Apple without worshiping the company. I would bet that many people own it because we believe it's an excellent company that possibly deserves a market multiple especially given the balance sheet.

[hardincap]

ValueInv

 

I think a lot of us  bought/own Apple without worshiping the company. I would bet that many people own it because we believe it's an excellent company that possibly deserves a market multiple especially given the balance sheet.

 

theres a good reason why some of the most successful investors (buffett, munger, burry, etc) avoid speaking bullishly on companies they own. wellmont already pointed this out but some people are slow to understand this point  ::).

[Viking]

I think we can safely call the bottom regarding sentiment in Apple for this cycle.

 

1.) 5S and 5C iphone sales are far stronger than 5 and 4S; this trend should continue into the holiday season.

2.) We have an ipad refresh likely happening in October; with no refresh in April there is alot of pent up demand and ipad sales should be impressive this holiday season.

3.) I-tunes, Software & Services will continue to grow at 20% as Apple adds users.

 

Weave it all together and you get Apple (finally) able to grow total earnings. With the share count coming down meaningfully due to the buyback we should see double digit earnings per share growth over the next 12 months. As of today, all analysts will now start to issue upward revisions to their revenue and earnings forecasts.

 

All of this assumes no breakthrough innovation. We know that something is coming in the next 12 months (TV, wearables etc). This is gravy. Negative sentiment took the shares as low as $385. It will be fun to see how high positive sentiment takes the shares over the next 12 months.

[Liberty]

theres a good reason why some of the most successful investors (buffett, munger, burry, etc) avoid speaking bullishly on companies they own. wellmont already pointed this out but some people are slow to understand this point  ::).

 

Buffett has written and spoken bullishly on almost all the companies he owns at various points (except as he's buying, but he has huge coattails, unlike most of us on this forum). Coke, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, GEICO, BNSF, American Express, Washington Post, Walmart, Netjets, etc. Same with Munger for Coke, Costco, BYD, etc. Burry just isn't speaking on anything and tries to stay away from the spotlight. There are all kinds of successful investors, from very secretive to very open. Not sure what any of this means.

 

IMO you can't blame someone for saying good things about a company they honestly think is good, just like you can't blame them for saying bad things about a company that they think is bad. They can choose not to say anything and that's fine (but if everybody did that, this board would be dead). The blame should only go to people saying something positive on a company that they think is bad and vice versa, because that's dishonest.

 

As for worship, you guys will have to define it, because so far I see positive opinions about Apple backed with reasoning and facts, I don't think these positions are blind or unconditional. You can disagree with the interpretation of the facts, but to call it worship just because you have a different conclusion is condescending.

[hardincap]

theres a good reason why some of the most successful investors (buffett, munger, burry, etc) avoid speaking bullishly on companies they own. wellmont already pointed this out but some people are slow to understand this point  ::).

 

Buffett has written and spoken bullishly on almost all the companies he owns at various points (except as he's buying, but he has huge coattails, unlike most of us on this forum). Coke, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, GEICO, BNSF, American Express, Washington Post, Walmart, Netjets, etc. Same with Munger for Coke, Costco, BYD, etc. Burry just isn't speaking on anything and tries to stay away from the spotlight. There are all kinds of successful investors, from very secretive to very open. Not sure what any of this means.

 

IMO you can't blame someone for saying good things about a company they honestly think is good, just like you can't blame them for saying bad things about a company that they think is bad. They can choose not to say anything and that's fine (but if everybody did that, this board would be dead). The blame should only go to people saying something positive on a company that they think is bad and vice versa, because that's dishonest.

 

As for worship, you guys will have to define it, because so far I see positive opinions about Apple backed with reasoning and facts, I don't think these positions are blind or unconditional. You can disagree with the interpretation of the facts, but to call it worship just because you have a different conclusion is condescending.

 

maybe you should read munger's almanack, particularly on how buffett would call him the "abominable no man", and the 2 books on burry where he talked a bit about his process.

 

the companies you pointed out are ones buffett has owned for decades and will own forever.

[Liberty]

maybe you should read munger's almanack, particularly on how buffett would call him the "abominable no man", and the 2 books on burry where he talked a bit about his process.

 

the companies you pointed out are ones buffett has owned for decades and will own forever.

 

I own that book, and I know that Munger almost doesn't like anything. But he's not afraid to talk about what he does like and what he doesn't like.

 

I just don't see what any of what you've just written has to do with anything.

[hardincap]

maybe you should read munger's almanack, particularly on how buffett would call him the "abominable no man", and the 2 books on burry where he talked a bit about his process.

 

the companies you pointed out are ones buffett has owned for decades and will own forever.

 

I've own that book, and I know that Munger almost doesn't like anything. But he's not afraid to talk about what he does like and what he doesn't like.

 

I just don't see what any of what you've just written has to do with anything.

 

ok. agree to disagree then.

[Liberty]

ok. agree to disagree then.

 

It's not necessarily that I disagree; it's that I don't understand what you mean.

 

Basically, you and krazeenyc implied that:

 

1) Some here worship Apple (subtext: blind faith, not rational)

 

and

 

2) That people shouldn't talk positively about companies they like, because that's not what great investors do (subtext: talking about what you like makes you a bad investor).

 

I said:

 

1) I don't think there's worship going on here because people can give rational reasons for their positions. You can disagree with how to interpret facts, but to say it's worship is condescending.

 

2) Many great investors will say positive things publicly about companies they like, and that's fine. There can be a downside if you're very big and have lots of copycats, but apart from that, it's a personal choice.

 

Then you said:

 

1) Munger says "no" to a lot of things

 

2) Buffett owns many things for a very long time.

 

I just don't see how that follows...

[Palantir]

How is Apple worship any different from Buffett and Munger worship?

[hardincap]

lets spend our time on more constructive things, like researching investments :)

[Liberty]

http://www.macrumors.com/2013/09/23/iphone-5s-outsells-iphone-5c-by-3-5x-in-launch-weekend-according-to-analytics-data/

 

These analytics data are never 100% accurate, but it seems like the top-of-the-line 5S significantly outsold the 5C during the first weekend. Not unexpected, as early-adopters tend to want the latest and greatest. I'd expect to see the ratio of 5Cs go up over time, but I don't know where it'll settle...

[Palantir]

Anybody still going to buy? I bought at 470, higher than most after delaying at 450, but my avg cost is still below 450, so it's ok i guess.

[rkbabang]

How is Apple worship any different from Buffett and Munger worship?

 

I don't read much name-calling, ad hominems, and constant snide remarks on the threads on this site discussing Buffett and Munger. It could be Buffett worshipers are more polite.

[krazeenyc]

ok. agree to disagree then.

 

It's not necessarily that I disagree; it's that I don't understand what you mean.

 

Basically, you and krazeenyc implied that:

 

1) Some here worship Apple (subtext: blind faith, not rational)

 

and

 

2) That people shouldn't talk positively about companies they like, because that's not what great investors do (subtext: talking about what you like makes you a bad investor).

 

I said:

 

1) I don't think there's worship going on here because people can give rational reasons for their positions. You can disagree with how to interpret facts, but to say it's worship is condescending.

 

2) Many great investors will say positive things publicly about companies they like, and that's fine. There can be a downside if you're very big and have lots of copycats, but apart from that, it's a personal choice.

 

Then you said:

 

1) Munger says "no" to a lot of things

 

2) Buffett owns many things for a very long time.

 

I just don't see how that follows...

 

my intent was not to bash ANYONE.  It was simply to say that I don't need to be wildly bullish about everything Apple to want to own the stock.  My thesis for stock ownership does not require for them to be better than Google or for iOS to be better than android, etc. I would assume that almost every Apple bear will concede that Apple is a very strong company.

 

Also I find there to be nothing wrong with "worshiping" or being a huge fan of a company.

[Liberty]

my intent was not to bash ANYONE.  It was simply to say that I don't need to be wildly bullish about everything Apple to want to own the stock.  My thesis for stock ownership does not require for them to be better than Google or for iOS to be better than android, etc. I would assume that almost every Apple bear will concede that Apple is a very strong company.

 

Also I find there to be nothing wrong with "worshiping" or being a huge fan of a company.

 

Thanks for clarifying.

 

I think it's the word "worship" that rubbed me the wrong way, but there are two ways to interpret it, and I now think you meant it a different way than I read it. (ie. worship in the religious sense, blind faith, just follow where they lead you vs. superficially looking like worship because you like something a lot, but underneath the surface it's not blind or irrational, and if the facts changed, the opinion would change).

[Guest valueInv]

ValueInv

 

I think a lot of us  bought/own Apple without worshiping the company. I would bet that many people own it because we believe it's an excellent company that possibly deserves a market multiple especially given the balance sheet.

 

theres a good reason why some of the most successful investors (buffett, munger, burry, etc) avoid speaking bullishly on companies they own. wellmont already pointed this out but some people are slow to understand this point  ::).

 

They also refrain from making baseless criticisms about the companies they own.

[hardincap]

ValueInv

 

I think a lot of us  bought/own Apple without worshiping the company. I would bet that many people own it because we believe it's an excellent company that possibly deserves a market multiple especially given the balance sheet.

 

theres a good reason why some of the most successful investors (buffett, munger, burry, etc) avoid speaking bullishly on companies they own. wellmont already pointed this out but some people are slow to understand this point  ::).

 

They also refrain from making baseless criticisms about the companies they own.

 

lol exactly what i expected of you  ::)

[Palantir]

Ok so back to discussing valuation.

 

What are you targeting your average cost basis to be? I started buying at 425, and foolishly waited till 470 to add more, but my avg basis is a little less than 450, and I'd like to add so that average stays about there.

 

At 450/s, it gives a market cap of 409B, and an EV of 309 (I give a 30% haircut to cash). I'm expecting them to make 50B in FCF this year, so a near term FCF yield is about 16%.

 

Catalysts are increasing dividends, and perhaps multiple expansion, as it starts gaining a natural shareholder base of dividend investors.

[Guest valueInv]

Boy, they're not even giving you a ship date on the US site now.

[DukeCrow]

9 million is an excellent opening weekend, but you have to take into account the fact that this is the first time China has been one of the initial launch countries for the iPhone. So, adjusting for China, iPhone sales were up 29% instead of the 80% most are reporting. Still a very, very good result.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2013/09/23/iphones-5c-and-5s-launch-performance-illustrated/

 

 

[Palantir]

9 million is an excellent opening weekend, but you have to take into account the fact that this is the first time China has been one of the initial launch countries for the iPhone. So, adjusting for China, iPhone sales were up 29% instead of the 80% most are reporting. Still a very, very good result.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2013/09/23/iphones-5c-and-5s-launch-performance-illustrated/

 

That actually sounds even more bullish. Organic growth plus market expansion.