AAPL - Apple Inc.

[Liberty]

9 million is an excellent opening weekend, but you have to take into account the fact that this is the first time China has been one of the initial launch countries for the iPhone. So, adjusting for China, iPhone sales were up 29% instead of the 80% most are reporting. Still a very, very good result.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2013/09/23/iphones-5c-and-5s-launch-performance-illustrated/

 

I don't know the answer to this, but did they also add new launch markets between the 4S and 5 launches? Probably nothing as big as China, though.

 

But even China isn't completely in until a China Mobile deal is inked, so that'll provide a further big lift to sales.

[compoundinglife]

Good read:

 

https://blog.lookout.com/blog/2013/09/23/why-i-hacked-apples-touchid-and-still-think-it-is-awesome/

[DukeCrow]

I don't know the answer to this, but did they also add new launch markets between the 4S and 5 launches? Probably nothing as big as China, though.

 

They added Hong Kong and Singapore.

http://www.asymco.com/2012/09/13/how-many-iphone-5s-will-sell-in-the-opening-weekend/

 

But even China isn't completely in until a China Mobile deal is inked, so that'll provide a further big lift to sales.

Yes, China Mobile availability would have a further large impact.

[VAL9000]

9 million is an excellent opening weekend, but you have to take into account the fact that this is the first time China has been one of the initial launch countries for the iPhone. So, adjusting for China, iPhone sales were up 29% instead of the 80% most are reporting. Still a very, very good result.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2013/09/23/iphones-5c-and-5s-launch-performance-illustrated/

 

That actually sounds even more bullish. Organic growth plus market expansion.

 

You also have to take into account that the 5c did not sell out.  This means that unlike previous years, the sell-in number (reported) is not equal to the sell-through number (unreported).  The 9m includes some amount of 5c inventory that was not sold to customers.  So take 2mm sales for china, 2mm sales for inventory and the 5c+5s combo becomes a 5mm sales figure - on par with the 5 release.

 

Note that my guesses around inventory and china sales are guesses.  They come from the 5 china release date sales figures as well as an analyst call I heard this morning regarding estimated 5c inventory.

 

[Liberty]

You also have to take into account that the 5c did not sell out.  This means that unlike previous years, the sell-in number (reported) is not equal to the sell-through number (unreported).  The 9m includes some amount of 5c inventory that was not sold to customers.  So take 2mm sales for china, 2mm sales for inventory and the 5c+5s combo becomes a 5mm sales figure - on par with the 5 release.

 

Note that my guesses around inventory and china sales are guesses.  They come from the 5 china release date sales figures as well as an analyst call I heard this morning regarding estimated 5c inventory.

 

It would be useful to know how many 5Cs they made, though. Not selling out means different things depending on how much inventory they had. I suspect is was quite big since they were pushing pre-orders heavily, and because that model is mostly made from older parts (with good yields by now, one assumes) that can easily be made in high volumes.

 

I also think that the first weekend is mostly an early-adopter event, and these people obviously want the latest and greatest (5S). It'll be interesting to see the 5C's performance after the dust settles.

[jeffmori7]

And considering the 5C which is probably cheaer to buy and what they have learned from making the 5 that will also apply to the 5S, I would think margin slide will stop for the next quarters, regardless of the sales distribution between both models.

[DCG]

You also have to take into account that the 5c did not sell out.  This means that unlike previous years, the sell-in number (reported) is not equal to the sell-through number (unreported).  The 9m includes some amount of 5c inventory that was not sold to customers.  So take 2mm sales for china, 2mm sales for inventory and the 5c+5s combo becomes a 5mm sales figure - on par with the 5 release.

 

Note that my guesses around inventory and china sales are guesses.  They come from the 5 china release date sales figures as well as an analyst call I heard this morning regarding estimated 5c inventory.

 

It would be useful to know how many 5Cs they made, though. Not selling out means different things depending on how much inventory they had. I suspect is was quite big since they were pushing pre-orders heavily, and because that model is mostly made from older parts (with good yields by now, one assumes) that can easily be made in high volumes.

 

I also think that the first weekend is mostly an early-adopter event, and these people obviously want the latest and greatest (5S). It'll be interesting to see the 5C's performance after the dust settles.

 

yeah. I'm surprised Apple actually increased their forcast just based on the 1st weekend sales.

[Guest valueInv]

Here's what "commoditization" of the smartphone market looks like:

 

http://9to5mac.com/2013/09/24/table-shows-current-iphone-5s-shipping-times-from-apple-u-s-carriers-go-into-holidays/

[Guest valueInv]

I've heard numerous times on this thread that people's friends are switching from the iPhone to Samsungs. Well, it looks like those people are not happy with their Samsungs:

 

http://www.tuaw.com/2013/09/24/gazelle-saw-210-more-samsung-trade-ins-during-iphone-5s-launch/

[Guest valueInv]

Time clears it up:

 

http://techland.time.com/2013/09/24/the-myth-of-steve-jobs-constant-breakthroughs/

 

And this is my new favorite article on Jobs:

http://readwrite.com/2010/06/07/iphone_letdown_8_things_apple_didnt_announce#awesm=~oiquMJaYv67Yz2

 

I guess Jobs was resting on his laurels too.

[DCG]

And of course here comes Samsung with a gold S4:

 

http://www.iphoneincanada.ca/apple/samsung-teases-with-gold-galaxy-s4/

 

Samsung's entire smartphone business is cloning Apple, and then advertising how bad Apple is.

[Guest wellmont]

I think everybody copies everybody. apple copied nokia and motorola with bright colors! and custom looks. and apple is going to copy samsung when it releases it's phablet next year probably. samsung invented the phablet of course. having said that as a fellow apple shareholder I hope they continue to take the best ideas out there and use them to our benefit.

[krazeenyc]

And of course here comes Samsung with a gold S4:

 

http://www.iphoneincanada.ca/apple/samsung-teases-with-gold-galaxy-s4/

 

Samsung's entire smartphone business is cloning Apple, and then advertising how bad Apple is.

 

considering they have incredible manufacturing capabilities -- this is really quite a good strategy.

[DCG]

And of course here comes Samsung with a gold S4:

 

http://www.iphoneincanada.ca/apple/samsung-teases-with-gold-galaxy-s4/

 

Samsung's entire smartphone business is cloning Apple, and then advertising how bad Apple is.

 

considering they have incredible manufacturing capabilities -- this is really quite a good strategy.

 

I not arguing that the strategy doesn't work...I just hate hearing people say things like 'Apple has lost it's ability to innovate, while Samsung is constantly innovating' (which seems to have been the attitude of tech bloggers & internet trolls lately).

[texual]

today i was convinced to use whatsapp because i quote 'imessage isnt on galaxy and so its the same thing as using wifi imessage except most of us use galaxys'

 

so before i used imessage i thought whatsapp sucked. everybody had imessage.

 

time went on, people got unlimited texting.

 

most of my friends got galaxys

 

but the benefit of imessage was the wifi enabled messaging which is pretty fast for us iphone users.

 

and after everyone got galaxy's, they've decided to use whatsapp as a replacement for imessage.

 

Thats the reason I say people are trending toward alternatives because the worst case scenario is imessage isnt on android, however whatsapp takes care of all those problems. this is also assuming everyones got unlimited texting too. Sometimes whatsapp just makes life easier since its a middle partner in the transaction of messages between iphones and galaxy's

 

the days of iMessage being a perk or special are closing. I use imessage everyday but it seems whatsapp will grow in my daily usage too.

[jeffmori7]

The full interview in BusinessWeek with Ive and Federighi is now available:

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-25/apples-jonathan-ive-and-craig-federighi-the-complete-interview

[Liberty]

The full interview in BusinessWeek with Ive and Federighi is now available:

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-25/apples-jonathan-ive-and-craig-federighi-the-complete-interview

 

Thanks Jeff! I didn't know they were publishing the raw interview. Much better! The one with Cook is good too:

 

http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/154256-tim-cook-the-complete-interview

 

Also: iOS adoption is ridiculously fast: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/25/chitika-ios-7-passes-52-percent-of-devices-one-week-after-launch

 

Edit: Also, the "junk" comment reads differently with the extra paragraph

 

I think it’s important that we grow, but I don’t measure our success in unit market share. So if there are a lot of $69 tablets sold that you’re just pounding on to get something to work and get some responsiveness, and it’s thick and fat and just a terrible experience, I don’t really weigh that unit of share like I do a different unit of share. I don’t weigh them to be equivalent.

 

So I think in most markets in consumer electronics, there’s always a large junk part of the market. We’re not in the junk business. We don’t want to make something for that. What we want to do is make a really great product and provide a great experience. And I’m sure we’ll get enough customers that want to buy that. We want to please them.

 

That other business, it’s not something—we don’t spend our time obsessed of how to make a product for that because that’s just not who we are and what we’re focused on.

 

He was specifically talking about $69 tablets that don't work worth a damn (and equivalent cheap POSes), not the whole android market as some here assumed.

[Palantir]

I'm pretty much sold on Apple after seeing iOS 7, and seeing how well the executive team gets along with each other. This is a truly post-Steve Jobs product and now that everyone is on the same page, and we have uniform design across hardware and software, it's going to be awesome.

 

Apple could well be stronger without Jobs.

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101065232

 

Apple, China Mobile deal may be coming soon

[Liberty]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101065232

 

Apple, China Mobile deal may be coming soon

 

I saw that. I think it's just a question of time now. If I had to guess, I'd say they'll try to time it so they can announce it at the iPad event in October. But that's just a guess.

[jeffmori7]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101065232

 

Apple, China Mobile deal may be coming soon

 

I saw that. I think it's just a question of time now. If I had to guess, I'd say they'll try to time it so they can announce it at the iPad event in October. But that's just a guess.

 

And as a guess, i would say that they would not have been able to meet up with the demand on the production side if the IPhone 5C and 5S launch included China Mobile. So they will announce once they get up with the demand and can absorb another big spike.

[nwoodman]

Impressive technology

 

http://mashable.com/2013/09/26/mlb-at-the-ballpark-app/

 

It might be only a 75 cent dollar at these levels but it is certainly a very shiny 75 cent dollar ;)

 

Cheers

 

nwoodman

[Liberty]

One more Nike guy. They're building quite a stable:

 

http://9to5mac.com/2013/09/27/apple-hires-one-of-nikes-top-fuel-band-designers-to-work-on-wearable-devices/

 

Apple has lured away top Nike design director Ben Shaffer, according to a source at Nike with knowledge of the details behind Shaffer’s departure. At Nike, Shaffer was the Studio Director of the Innovation Kitchen. This is Nike’s research and development lab where new product designs are created. Under Shaffer’s lead, Nike was named the most innovative company in 2013 by Fast Company. Nike’s Innovation Kitchen has been responsible for wearable products like the popular Nike Fuel Band, and most recently, the Flyknit shoe.

[Liberty]

Apple (AAPL) has unseated Coca-Cola as the world’s No. 1 brand, as the company founded by Steve Jobs is a leader in design and performance, according to a study of the Top 100 brands by Interbrand Corp.

 

Apple Inc.’s brand value jumped 28 percent to $98.3 billion and Google Inc. (GOOG)’s rose in second place at $93.3 billion. The Coca-Cola Co. name slipped from the top spot after 13 years to third place at $79.2 billion.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/apple-overtakes-coca-cola-as-most-valuable-brand-study-finds.html

[treasurehunt]

Smartphone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel for the three months ending in Aug 2013: http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/dwl.php?sn=news_downloads&id=304

 

My summary: IOS has improved its market share a bit everywhere except for China; Android's market share has generally declined slightly; Windows has improved its market share significantly in Europe and Australia; Blackberry has fallen off the cliff pretty much everywhere.

 

Nothing very surprising here, I think, except for how fast Windows is gaining share in Europe. IOS should do even better over the next three months, I imagine.