AAPL - Apple Inc.

[Guest valueInv]

So what are people thinking about the new Kindles?  I haven't gotten a chance to really delve into the specs and features, but the discounted 4G subscription seems like a brilliant move by Amazon. 

 

The competition heats up even more!

 

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409389,00.asp

http://parislemon.com/post/31047436477/the-499-kindle-fire-hd

[txlaw]

So what are people thinking about the new Kindles?  I haven't gotten a chance to really delve into the specs and features, but the discounted 4G subscription seems like a brilliant move by Amazon. 

 

The competition heats up even more!

 

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409389,00.asp

http://parislemon.com/post/31047436477/the-499-kindle-fire-hd

 

Interesting.  I'm gonna look into these things a bit more this weekend.  I doubt I would buy the Kindle Fire, but I just pre-ordered a Kindle Paperwhite.

 

I'm more interested in hearing what other board members are thinking on whether they would buy the Kindle Fire vs. Nexus vs. iPad vs. Surface vs. some other tablet.  Or whether people are just waiting until everything is out for the holiday season.

[gokou3]

I'm more interested in hearing what other board members are thinking on whether they would buy the Kindle Fire vs. Nexus vs. iPad vs. Surface vs. some other tablet.  Or whether people are just waiting until everything is out for the holiday season.

 

I am in the market for a tablet.  My main criteria are speed, HD video con, ease of use, and price.  I think iPad still leads in terms of ease of use, but others are catching up quickly.  For speed, I am using a 4S myself and it is really slow lately because I am running out of storage space, although I wouldn't say it was fast in the beginning either.  Perhaps the android tables with quad-core can solve the speed issues.  And for prices, iPad is more expensive than comparable tablets by at least $100!  Why would one choose to buy it anymore other than legacy (if i may use this word to describe a 2-year old product) reasons, say facetime with friends, app investment, etc.

 

I will wait until at least the Surface comes out.  I would really love to have one ecosystem for all of my stuff.  I would stick to my PC for home computing.  If Win8 is good, I will probably buy a Surface tablet and a Nokia W8 phone.

 

Speaking of phones, Apple will announce the iphone 5 next week.  Based on the leaks so far, I think it will UNDERwhelm.  It would be interesting to see how the consumers will respond to a new iphone that's not the best and greatest available out there.

[DCG]

I'm more interested in hearing what other board members are thinking on whether they would buy the Kindle Fire vs. Nexus vs. iPad vs. Surface vs. some other tablet.  Or whether people are just waiting until everything is out for the holiday season.

 

I am in the market for a tablet.  My main criteria are speed, HD video con, ease of use, and price.  I think iPad still leads in terms of ease of use, but others are catching up quickly.  For speed, I am using a 4S myself and it is really slow lately because I am running out of storage space, although I wouldn't say it was fast in the beginning either.  Perhaps the android tables with quad-core can solve the speed issues.  And for prices, iPad is more expensive than comparable tablets by at least $100!  Why would one choose to buy it anymore other than legacy (if i may use this word to describe a 2-year old product) reasons, say facetime with friends, app investment, etc.

 

I will wait until at least the Surface comes out.  I would really love to have one ecosystem for all of my stuff.  I would stick to my PC for home computing.  If Win8 is good, I will probably buy a Surface tablet and a Nokia W8 phone.

 

Speaking of phones, Apple will announce the iphone 5 next week.  Based on the leaks so far, I think it will UNDERwhelm.  It would be interesting to see how the consumers will respond to a new iphone that's not the best and greatest available out there.

 

What do you mean by 2 years old with the iPad? The 3rd version of the iPad was released this past spring.

 

And I think the iPhone 5 will continue to be te best phone on the market. I would still take the 4s over any current android phone. I had an android phone for about 3 yeas. I've much happier with the iPhone. My droid (and several apps) would crash on me daily. Got the 4s when I was released and it has yet to crash on me a single time.

 

I also have the 3rd iPad and love it, but I can understand not wanting to spend the cash for it. We have a few android tablets at work, and I'm not overly impressed by them.

[bathtime]

 

Are people really working at Apple for equity appreciation? Do you know that Apple is not generous at all with stock for its rank and file employees?

 

Apple is not a chip company. They haven't done anything interesting with chips yet. Keller (and others) would not have made much of an impact working there. He'll controls a lot more at AMD, so he left.

 

Frankly, I don't think it makes much sense for Apple to be designing its own chips - they certainly have had no advantage with that in the iDevices. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple switch to commodity chips in the future.

 

I imagine the rank and file don't get big stock options, but that senior hires do. Apple isn't a chip company for their desktops/laptops, but they definitely are for their mobile devices. This piece quotes an exec as saying, “Steve Jobs told me he has 1,000 engineers working on chips,” he said. “Getting low power and smaller is the key to everything.”

 

http://techcrunch.com/2011/10/09/apple-1000-engineers-chips/

[bathtime]

I use a MacBook Air, tried but returned the first gen iPad (didn't need it), and may buy an iPad mini for its portability. The new Kindles do look interesting though. Will at least check them out now.

 

I used to have iPhone 3GS, switched to an Android for the sake of signing up with Verizon before they ended unlimited data plans. Will probably go to iPhone 5 or 6 next year when my plan renews. I have an HTC Thunderbolt, the 4G is nice, but battery life sucks and it has been succeeded by much better 4G Android phones.

 

I do like the freedom to customize, etc. on Android. Apple has better design and integration, but it can be frustrating to have the user environment limited by Apple's dictates. Plus it's ridiculous that flash doesn't work on iPhones - although with the web switching to HTML5, maybe the issue of not being able to watch many video clips on iPhones is diminishing.

[Liberty]

Apple hasn't produced anything that seems to be better than its competitors and gives it an edge. Qualcomm, etc are revving faster with more clock speed, more cores, better consumption, etc. Differentiation only works if what you have is better. The top people leaving tells me that Apple is not doing anything interesting enough for them to stay. Apple has been through multiple generations of its Ax series without any advantage. Are they going to suddenly product chips far better than anything else out there?

 

On the flip side, they are dependent on their biggest competitor for their chip manufacturing. Samsung uses an identical chip in its phones. Not only are they adding to their competitors profits but also giving them economies of scale which it then uses to undercut Apple in price.

 

Those are good points, but it doesn't mean they aren't trying to differentiate (why buy all those chip designers?). Maybe they'll succeed, maybe they won't and will just go commodity. I think either way they should be fine since their chips aren't their secret sauce.

[gokou3]

I'm more interested in hearing what other board members are thinking on whether they would buy the Kindle Fire vs. Nexus vs. iPad vs. Surface vs. some other tablet.  Or whether people are just waiting until everything is out for the holiday season.

 

I am in the market for a tablet.  My main criteria are speed, HD video con, ease of use, and price.  I think iPad still leads in terms of ease of use, but others are catching up quickly.  For speed, I am using a 4S myself and it is really slow lately because I am running out of storage space, although I wouldn't say it was fast in the beginning either.  Perhaps the android tables with quad-core can solve the speed issues.  And for prices, iPad is more expensive than comparable tablets by at least $100!  Why would one choose to buy it anymore other than legacy (if i may use this word to describe a 2-year old product) reasons, say facetime with friends, app investment, etc.

 

I will wait until at least the Surface comes out.  I would really love to have one ecosystem for all of my stuff.  I would stick to my PC for home computing.  If Win8 is good, I will probably buy a Surface tablet and a Nokia W8 phone.

 

Speaking of phones, Apple will announce the iphone 5 next week.  Based on the leaks so far, I think it will UNDERwhelm.  It would be interesting to see how the consumers will respond to a new iphone that's not the best and greatest available out there.

 

What do you mean by 2 years old wih the iPad? The 3rd version of the iPad was released this past spring.

 

I meant product line.  The original ipad was released on March 2010 if I remember correctly, so the entire ipad line has been out for 2.5 years.  What I meant to say is, if I were an existing ipad user with an older ipad version, I would probably upgrade to the new ipad over other tablets.  However, if I haven't had one before, the other options (android, win8) should be given serious considerations too.

[txlaw]

Kindle presentation:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYi1jZXz9Kg

 

-----

 

Amazon Doctrine

 

Above all else, align with customers.

 

Win when they win.

 

Win only when they win.

 

-----

 

How does this philosophy apply to hardware devices?

 

We want to make money when people use our devices, not when they buy our devices.

 

-----

 

Bezos is bringing it.  I like it.

[txlaw]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

[Guest valueInv]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

Everything is a threat to Apple. The Kindle is probably even a  threat to Amazon's own profit margins. They're trying to subsidize the device by selling content. But then, they're selling books below their cost.

[txlaw]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

Everything is a threat to Apple. The Kindle is probably even a  threat to Amazon's own profit margins. They're trying to subsidize the device by selling content. But then, they're selling books below their cost.

 

Amazon is selling the Kindle Fire at or close to cost because the device is just a means to utilize content, which drives the use of AMZN assets. 

 

Amazon has a subscriber base because they offer awesome content and services at the lowest cost.  Prime and the release of new Kindle devices solidifies the relationship between current AMZN customers and makes it very likely that prospective "retail subscribers" sign up.  This is phenomenal for consumers.  And it means that one ought not to count on high gross margins for AAPL devices. 

 

Now let's see what types of services Apple starts to roll out and how popular they become.  Apparently, they are working on a Spotify competitor.  I'd love to see AMZN buy Spotify.

[DCG]

Not sure if it would pose any anti-trust issues, but I'd love to see Apple buy a few app manufacturers, such as Shazam, and make them part of iOS.

[gfp]

That's how they got Siri and it seemed to work well for them

[Guest valueInv]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

Everything is a threat to Apple. The Kindle is probably even a  threat to Amazon's own profit margins. They're trying to subsidize the device by selling content. But then, they're selling books below their cost.

 

Amazon is selling the Kindle Fire at or close to cost because the device is just a means to utilize content, which drives the use of AMZN assets. 

 

Amazon has a subscriber base because they offer awesome content and services at the lowest cost.  Prime and the release of new Kindle devices solidifies the relationship between current AMZN customers and makes it very likely that prospective "retail subscribers" sign up.  This is phenomenal for consumers.  And it means that one ought not to count on high gross margins for AAPL devices. 

 

Now let's see what types of services Apple starts to roll out and how popular they become.  Apparently, they are working on a Spotify competitor.  I'd love to see AMZN buy Spotify.

 

OK, let me repeat - Amazon is selling devices at or below cost, they are selling many books at below cost too. So what are they subsidizing their losses in these two areas with? Apps? Music? They don't sell that many prime subscriptions.

 

[Olmsted]

OK, let me repeat - Amazon is selling devices at or below cost, they are selling many books at below cost too. So what are they subsidizing their losses in these two areas with? Apps? Music? They don't sell that many prime subscriptions.

 

Amazon is the proverbial company being run at zero margin to maximize market share.  Great for consumers.  Normally not so great for stockholders (though the price can stay wacky for a while).  Horrible for everyone they compete with - Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, Netflix, etc... and Apple?  We shall see.

 

I sold my Apple after the Samsung pop.  There are cheaper things out there, growth should level off soon, and I am not willing to bet that they will be able to maintain their margins.  They might, they might not, but I do not have an edge anymore and therefore chose to let someone else figure that out.

[txlaw]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

Everything is a threat to Apple. The Kindle is probably even a  threat to Amazon's own profit margins. They're trying to subsidize the device by selling content. But then, they're selling books below their cost.

 

Amazon is selling the Kindle Fire at or close to cost because the device is just a means to utilize content, which drives the use of AMZN assets. 

 

Amazon has a subscriber base because they offer awesome content and services at the lowest cost.  Prime and the release of new Kindle devices solidifies the relationship between current AMZN customers and makes it very likely that prospective "retail subscribers" sign up.  This is phenomenal for consumers.  And it means that one ought not to count on high gross margins for AAPL devices. 

 

Now let's see what types of services Apple starts to roll out and how popular they become.  Apparently, they are working on a Spotify competitor.  I'd love to see AMZN buy Spotify.

 

OK, let me repeat - Amazon is selling devices at or below cost, they are selling many books at below cost too. So what are they subsidizing their losses in these two areas with? Apps? Music? They don't sell that many prime subscriptions.

 

Selling devices at or below cost doesn't matter to AMZN.  And, btw, even if they are selling below cost, does that change the thesis on gross margin decline for iPads?  My answer is "no."

 

Do you really believe AMZN is selling all of its books below cost?  Publishers accuse them of doing this.  I believe what's actually happening is that there are large parts of the catalogs they buy access to that get subsidized by the better selling titles.  As long as the publishers control large catalogs of content that consists of both great and crappy titles, that's how it's going to be for Amazon.

 

But look, I'd love to hear from people in the publishing industry.  I know at least some board members have indicated that that's the business they're in.

 

Amazon's playing the long game.  Take a look at their revenue growth.  They're creating a relationship with consumers that will make them the Walmart/Costco of the new generation.

[txlaw]

OK, let me repeat - Amazon is selling devices at or below cost, they are selling many books at below cost too. So what are they subsidizing their losses in these two areas with? Apps? Music? They don't sell that many prime subscriptions.

 

Amazon is the proverbial company being run at zero margin to maximize market share.  Great for consumers.  Normally not so great for stockholders (though the price can stay wacky for a while).  Horrible for everyone they compete with - Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, Netflix, etc... and Apple?  We shall see.

 

I sold my Apple after the Samsung pop.  There are cheaper things out there, growth should level off soon, and I am not willing to be that they will be able to maintain their margins.  They might, they might not, but I do not have an edge anymore and therefore chose to let someone else figure that out.

 

Personally, I would not own AMZN at this price.

 

However, I believe Bezos has learned from the Costco model.  Run at margins well below what you could probably sustain in order to rapidly increase revenue growth and build a huge moat.

[Guest valueInv]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

 

Everything is a threat to Apple. The Kindle is probably even a  threat to Amazon's own profit margins. They're trying to subsidize the device by selling content. But then, they're selling books below their cost.

 

Amazon is selling the Kindle Fire at or close to cost because the device is just a means to utilize content, which drives the use of AMZN assets. 

 

Amazon has a subscriber base because they offer awesome content and services at the lowest cost.  Prime and the release of new Kindle devices solidifies the relationship between current AMZN customers and makes it very likely that prospective "retail subscribers" sign up.  This is phenomenal for consumers.  And it means that one ought not to count on high gross margins for AAPL devices. 

 

Now let's see what types of services Apple starts to roll out and how popular they become.  Apparently, they are working on a Spotify competitor.  I'd love to see AMZN buy Spotify.

 

OK, let me repeat - Amazon is selling devices at or below cost, they are selling many books at below cost too. So what are they subsidizing their losses in these two areas with? Apps? Music? They don't sell that many prime subscriptions.

 

Selling devices at or below cost doesn't matter to AMZN.  And, btw, even if they are selling below cost, does that change the thesis on gross margin decline for iPads?  My answer is "no."

 

Do you really believe AMZN is selling all of its books below cost?  Publishers accuse them of doing this.  I believe what's actually happening is that there are large parts of the catalogs they buy access to that get subsidized by the better selling titles.  As long as the publishers control large catalogs of content that consists of both great and crappy titles, that's how it's going to be for Amazon.

 

But look, I'd love to hear from people in the publishing industry.  I know at least some board members have indicated that that's the business they're in.

 

Amazon's playing the long game.  Take a look at their revenue growth.  They're creating a relationship with consumers that will make them the Walmart/Costco of the new generation.

 

So, they're looking to drop their profits further?

 

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the-difference-between-apple-amazon-in-one-chart.php

[txlaw]

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/amazon-will-sell-ad-free-kindle-fire-hd-extra-15-987503

 

AMZN is going to allow buyers to get rid of special offers for $15. 

 

I think even the most die hard Apple fans will probably realize that this assault by Bezos poses a threat to AAPL's gross margins on the iPad.

 

Everything is a threat to Apple. The Kindle is probably even a  threat to Amazon's own profit margins. They're trying to subsidize the device by selling content. But then, they're selling books below their cost.

 

Amazon is selling the Kindle Fire at or close to cost because the device is just a means to utilize content, which drives the use of AMZN assets. 

 

Amazon has a subscriber base because they offer awesome content and services at the lowest cost.  Prime and the release of new Kindle devices solidifies the relationship between current AMZN customers and makes it very likely that prospective "retail subscribers" sign up.  This is phenomenal for consumers.  And it means that one ought not to count on high gross margins for AAPL devices. 

 

Now let's see what types of services Apple starts to roll out and how popular they become.  Apparently, they are working on a Spotify competitor.  I'd love to see AMZN buy Spotify.

 

OK, let me repeat - Amazon is selling devices at or below cost, they are selling many books at below cost too. So what are they subsidizing their losses in these two areas with? Apps? Music? They don't sell that many prime subscriptions.

 

Selling devices at or below cost doesn't matter to AMZN.  And, btw, even if they are selling below cost, does that change the thesis on gross margin decline for iPads?  My answer is "no."

 

Do you really believe AMZN is selling all of its books below cost?  Publishers accuse them of doing this.  I believe what's actually happening is that there are large parts of the catalogs they buy access to that get subsidized by the better selling titles.  As long as the publishers control large catalogs of content that consists of both great and crappy titles, that's how it's going to be for Amazon.

 

But look, I'd love to hear from people in the publishing industry.  I know at least some board members have indicated that that's the business they're in.

 

Amazon's playing the long game.  Take a look at their revenue growth.  They're creating a relationship with consumers that will make them the Walmart/Costco of the new generation.

 

So, they're looking to drop their profits further?

 

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the-difference-between-apple-amazon-in-one-chart.php

 

From that article:

 

Obviously, if short-term profit is all that matters, Apple is winning by a mile. Apple has generated more than $73 billion of profit over the span of this chart, while Amazon is around $2 billion. Some of that has to do with the relative size of the companies; Apple is about three times bigger, sales-wise. But Apple's approach is still dramatically more profitable on a relative basis.

 

That said, there's also merit to Amazon's approach. By pricing its devices lower, it's potentially bringing its technologies to more people in different economic positions. Apple has lowered its pricing premium significantly over the years, but there are still potentially millions of people who could justify buying a $200 Kindle Fire but not a $400 iPad. Apple is now expected to launch a smaller, cheaper iPad, something it once suggested it wouldn't do - an action attributable in part to Amazon's success.

 

Will Amazon's approach ever lead to substantial profits? If Apple and Google are driving media and app prices lower, that leaves less room for Amazon to profit in the future. But Amazon is a multifaceted machine, ranging from digital media sales to paper-towel delivery. It's possible that getting customers all-in on Amazon's digital and Prime services will eventually lead to greater profits across the board.

 

Another question: Could competition from Amazon force Apple to lower its prices, potentially at the expense of its profit margins? Perhaps, over the long term, on some models.

[Olmsted]

Personally, I would not own AMZN at this price.

 

However, I believe Bezos has learned from the Costco model.  Run at margins well below what you could probably sustain in order to rapidly increase revenue growth and build a huge moat.

 

Yes, I understand that that is the bull explanation for Amazon long-term.  It makes some sense.  And it very well could work out that way.  Shareholders have to trust that management will switch from go-go expansion mode to hang-out-behind-the-moat-raise-margins-and-generate-cash mode.

[txlaw]

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/design/2012/09/iphone_design_documents_from_the_samsung_trial_reveal_more_than_ever_about_apple_s_secretive_design_process_.single.html

[Guest valueInv]

 

Obviously, if short-term profit is all that matters, Apple is winning by a mile.

I have held AAPL for more than 10 years. They have been far more consistent with their profits during that period than Amazon.

 

Apple is now expected to launch a smaller, cheaper iPad, something it once suggested it wouldn't do - an action attributable in part to Amazon's success.

Yeah, right:

 

http://www.engadget.com/2012/08/03/eddy-cue-wanted-7-inch-ipad/

 

But Amazon is a multifaceted machine, ranging from digital media sales to paper-towel delivery. It's possible that getting customers all-in on Amazon's digital and Prime services will eventually lead to greater profits across the board.

That strategy certainly hasn't been working. Take a look at recent financials. Here's the other thing. They are going to have to pay sales tax in the future and they're promised many states to open up fulfillment centers and hire people. All this while they're planning to move to more digital goods from physical goods. That should juice up profits plenty  ;)

 

Another question: Could competition from Amazon force Apple to lower its prices, potentially at the expense of its profit margins? Perhaps, over the long term, on some models.

Tell me how as the appearance of me too competitor products affects the margins of:

iPods

Macs (2nd Steve Jobs era)

iPhones

 

We should have about 10 years worth of history on this.

 

[VAL9000]

txlaw,

 

I think your Costco analogy is interesting..  My own twist to this is that Amazon is incredibly aware of the damage that they did to significant chunks of the retail industry.  Knowing how fragile business models can be, they are making a proactive bid to be the leaders in the business that will put them out of business.  Amazon has historically done plenty of business selling books, CD's, and DVD's.  They see where content is going and are working hard to maintain/obtain mindshare as the location of choice to buy this media in its latest incarnation.  The threat 5-10 years down the line?  3D printing could seriously damage the physical goods business.  Of course, 3D printing is also primarily a content problem (after the messy physical bit gets sorted out).  Very prescient of AMZN & Co to be heading this direction today.

 

valueInv,

 

Just because AAPL is a good business, doesn't mean that other businesses (e.g. AMZN, GOOG) are not also good businesses.  They could just be different and in different stages.  Just think about how absolutely stupid the world said you were for buying stock in AAPL 10 years ago.  Today you have reaped the benefits of making a very wise and very bold choice.  Don't you also think that it's sensible to apply the same model of forward thinking to businesses that may not look like home runs today, but have a shot at becoming "the next Apple" in their respective segments?  Even where these segments overlap with Apple?  That's certainly what I'm thinking when I see interesting technology.  Not sure if others agree on that.  I think it's fair to say that Apple is "the next Apple", too.  There are certainly enough consumer electronics product categories that would benefit from Apple's attention.

 

I want to add that I can see how it might be frustrating as an Apple shareholder on this board.  Unfortunately for you, it seems that most people here enjoy rooting for the underdog (which used to mean rooting for Apple).  Now that Apple is top dog, it seems that there is a consensus that Apple must fall.  Which may not ever happen.  Anyway, I just wanted to clarify that I think Apple is a phenomenal business and that all of their investors should be proud of their gains.  Apple shares aren't for me, but that's more of a preference in taste than a belief that their business is going to flounder.

 

 

[Olmsted]

I think a lot of individuals here like "rooting for the underdog" because the risk-reward can be good (though to be fair, I think a lot of investors' utility is derived at least partly from a feeling of having 'outsmarted' the consensus, as opposed to being a function of returns only).  Top dog Apple may do really well, probably will continue to actually.  But the bet is different now than it was even a year ago.  It takes a lot more to "move the needle."  That doesn't mean predicting Apple's imminent decline - far from it - it just means there may be more attractive bets elsewhere.