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nwwodman, we had a similar experience at my school; last year the Parent Advisory Council at my kids elementary school purchased a class set of ipads (including charging station etc); cost was $15,000. They will fundraise and in two more years they will be purchasing a second set. There was no tender process; ipads were the only option discussed.

 

A friend is a principal and technology leader for a number of public elementary schools; they will all be purchasing ipads moving forward. Apple certainly has a lock on education where our kids go to school.

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He's baaaaack!

 

Icahn Pushes Apple for $150 Billion Buyback

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304069604579155383400289124.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

 

I think Cook should simply ignore him. This should not be a priority for Apple's management. (Yes I mean that)

 

I hope Cook ignores him too. Icahn owns what, a fifth of a percent of Apple? But of course what he says about the company can lead to market cap swings of a few billion, not that that should concern Cook.

 

I would love to have seen Steve Jobs' reaction to Carl's manoeuvres.

 

 

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Guest valueInv

He's baaaaack!

 

Icahn Pushes Apple for $150 Billion Buyback

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304069604579155383400289124.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

 

I think Cook should simply ignore him. This should not be a priority for Apple's management. (Yes I mean that)

 

I hope Cook ignores him too. Icahn owns what, a fifth of a percent of Apple? But of course what he says about the company can lead to market cap swings of a few billion, not that that should concern Cook.

 

I would love to have seen Steve Jobs' reaction to Carl's manoeuvres.

 

So he's threatening a proxy fight.

 

Question: What are the odds he could pull it off? Seems irresponsible for Apple to take on $150B (or anywhere close) of debt.

Doesn't sound like he is going to get much support.

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I've been thinking about the buybacks, about what's safest for me as a shareholder. Here's what I came up with:

 

1) What does the cash on the balance sheet do for Apple? As a shareholder, does it really make the company safer for me?

 

It probably does up to a certain point, but not past that point. What makes consumer product companies successful is culture, ideas, focus, talent, taste, network effect, branding. Not sheer amount of money. Microsoft has all the money in the world and they're losing money on tablets, a distant third in phones, losing money on search, etc..

 

2) So if there's a lot of money that doesn't really change the future of the company (past a certain point -- always good to have a fat buffer to get over temporary problems), what should be done with it?

 

We can't know what's the "right" amount for buybacks without knowing the future. If the future is great -- they sell tons of devices over the holidays, they do a deal with China Mobile and it's a blockbuster, they enter new categories and come up with great stuff, iPhone 6 has a bigger screen and sells massively, etc.. Then the biggest buyback you can do while the stock is cheap, the better continuing shareholders will be. Heck, by the time a 150B buyback is done, there will probably be 50-75B more coming in.

 

If things don't go so well in a temporary way, how much cash do they need to ride out the storm? A few tens of billions maybe? It's not like they are super capital intensive.

 

If things turn to crap in a more permanent way (they somehow lose their way and stop making products people at the high end want to buy), then all the money in the world won't fix that. It wouldn't be a money problem.

 

3) So what's safer for me as a shareholder?

 

If they keep most of the cash, it doesn't make me any safer under the "lose their way" scenario.

 

If they do big buybacks but keep a buffer, they can easily ride out a temporary storm.

 

If they do big buybacks (even with debt), I get a bigger share of any future earnings automatically. Even if we hit bumps on the road and growth isn't great, earnings could still grow nicely on a per share basis. If they want to be conservative, they can even start reducing the debt as soon as the stock price isn't so undervalued. Even 150B of debt could be wiped out in a few years (or immediately if there's a tax holiday on foreign cash holdings).

 

Bottom line: Seems like big buybacks are actually SAFER than sitting on a mountain of cash, because all that cash earns nothing right now and wouldn't be that useful defensively anyway, but having a bigger piece of earnings makes my shares worth more with certitude.

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I don't think anyone disagrees that buybacks are a good thing, and as you know, Apple has started a big return of capital program to address exactly those concerns. The issue is - is a giant buyback a priority? I don't believe so. I'd prefer if they have a strong return of capital program that regularly pays shareholders over many years as I plan on holding for a while.

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I don't think anyone disagrees that buybacks are a good thing, and as you know, Apple has started a big return of capital program to address exactly those concerns. The issue is - is a giant buyback a priority? I don't believe so. I'd prefer if they have a strong return of capital program that regularly pays shareholders over many years as I plan on holding for a while.

 

That would be my answer too if I thought that was safer for me as a shareholder, but as I explained above, I don't think it's safer. For most companies it would be safer, but we have to look at the specifics of the situation.

 

Feel free to show me where my logic is wrong, I might have missed something.

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Guest valueInv

I don't think anyone disagrees that buybacks are a good thing, and as you know, Apple has started a big return of capital program to address exactly those concerns. The issue is - is a giant buyback a priority? I don't believe so. I'd prefer if they have a strong return of capital program that regularly pays shareholders over many years as I plan on holding for a while.

 

The buybacks are a priority while the stock price is low. That window is already closing. After the 28th or after January, any buybacks may turn negative for shareholders.

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May be safer, but "what to do with 150B" isn't TC' main priority at this point. They have a plan on returning capital and they should execute it. Same goes for ValueInv's comment.

 

After the 28th, then I hope they stop buying back, I'd love to get a bigger dividend.

 

 

 

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For those who forgot to mark their calendar, Apple CC at 5 EST tonight:

 

http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/13piujbdvohubfevoihabsdvaohubdv10/event/

 

Phone Sales Grow 26% to Establish New September Quarter Record

 

CUPERTINO, California—October 28, 2013—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2013 fourth quarter ended September 28, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $37.5 billion and quarterly net profit of $7.5 billion, or $8.26 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $36 billion and net profit of $8.2 billion, or $8.67 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 37 percent compared to 40 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 60 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

 

The Company sold 33.8 million iPhones, a record for the September quarter, compared to 26.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold 14.1 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 14 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.6 million Macs, compared to 4.9 million in the year-ago quarter.

 

Apple’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $3.05 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on November 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2013.

 

“We’re pleased to report a strong finish to an amazing year with record fourth quarter revenue, including sales of almost 34 million iPhones,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. "We’re excited to go into the holidays with our new iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s, iOS 7, the new iPad mini with Retina Display and the incredibly thin and light iPad Air, new MacBook Pros, the radical new Mac Pro, OS X Mavericks and the next generation iWork and iLife apps for OS X and iOS.”

 

“We generated $9.9 billion in cash flow from operations and returned an additional $7.8 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the September quarter, bringing cumulative payments under our capital return program to $36 billion,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO.

 

Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2014 first quarter:

revenue between $55 billion and $58 billion

gross margin between 36.5 percent and 37.5 percent

operating expenses between $4.4 billion and $4.5 billion

other income/(expense) of $200 million

tax rate of 26.25 percent

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Guest valueInv

For those who forgot to mark their calendar, Apple CC at 5 EST tonight:

 

http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/13piujbdvohubfevoihabsdvaohubdv10/event/

 

Phone Sales Grow 26% to Establish New September Quarter Record

 

CUPERTINO, California—October 28, 2013—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2013 fourth quarter ended September 28, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $37.5 billion and quarterly net profit of $7.5 billion, or $8.26 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $36 billion and net profit of $8.2 billion, or $8.67 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 37 percent compared to 40 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 60 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

 

The Company sold 33.8 million iPhones, a record for the September quarter, compared to 26.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold 14.1 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 14 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.6 million Macs, compared to 4.9 million in the year-ago quarter.

 

Apple’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $3.05 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on November 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2013.

 

“We’re pleased to report a strong finish to an amazing year with record fourth quarter revenue, including sales of almost 34 million iPhones,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. "We’re excited to go into the holidays with our new iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s, iOS 7, the new iPad mini with Retina Display and the incredibly thin and light iPad Air, new MacBook Pros, the radical new Mac Pro, OS X Mavericks and the next generation iWork and iLife apps for OS X and iOS.”

 

“We generated $9.9 billion in cash flow from operations and returned an additional $7.8 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the September quarter, bringing cumulative payments under our capital return program to $36 billion,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO.

 

Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2014 first quarter:

revenue between $55 billion and $58 billion

gross margin between 36.5 percent and 37.5 percent

operating expenses between $4.4 billion and $4.5 billion

other income/(expense) of $200 million

tax rate of 26.25 percent

 

Stock down 2%. Hopefully, it'll drop more tomorrow.

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Palantir, you and I must be looking at a different press release. From what I read Apple just completed a very good fiscal Q4 (Sept). iphone and ipad sales exceeded expecations and this drove revenue and earnings beat.

 

For fiscal Q1 (Dec) Apple is guiding to higher revenue and GM than analysts were forcasting; as explained on the conference call, the GM% is understated by $900 million due to software defferals (now giving away software). This $900 million will flow directly through to profit over the following 2 years for iOS devices and 4 years for macs. One of the analysts asked the CFO that with this $900 million included if the mid point of Apple's GM guidance would have been 38.5% for fiscal Q1 (Dec) and the FCO seemed to agree; at 38.5% the GM midpoint is much higher than analysts were expecting. On the conference call Tim Cook also said they expect year over year growth in ipad and Mac which we have not seen for a few quarters. We know iphones sales are going to be way up in fiscal Q1.

 

When you weave it all together, Apple results look to have bottomed; we should see improving results (i.e. earnings growth year over year) as we move into 2014. This is GREAT NEWS. Also, Apple confirmed they have repurchased 44 million shares in the last two quarters (close to 5%).

 

If there was one negative on the conference call it was Tim Cook's answer regarding broeakthrough innovation. The questioned tried to get him to confirm something would be coming from now to July 2014 and Tim Cook did not confirm this would be the case. Tim Cook did say Apple sees significant opportunities to grow in categories they currently do not participate; the timing remains unclear.

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Guest valueInv

Disappointing earnings, iPhone is strong, but others look weak. Wish they'd lower the price on macs but, apple is addicted to high margins.

They've already dropped prices on their laptops.

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Guest valueInv

I'm aware that they've dropped MB prices, I'm just saying it's pretty insignificant.

 

Viking - fair points, will look thigh them. You're right that this is a "bottom" quarter and we'd need to wait 2-3 quarters.

 

They've also dropped prices on their applications and their OS.

 

And you'll have the wait one more quarter. That will be the first YoY comparison after the iPad mini shipped.

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Guest valueInv

On the supposed "pricing pressure":

 

Thanks very much. I wanted to ask about iPhone ASPs. They were down about 7% year-on-year in the quarter and down sequentially. Last year they were up sequentially on the launch. Was that a product supply availability issue? And how do you think about ASPs going forward?

 

Peter Oppenheimer - SVP, CFO

Chris, it's Peter. Sequentially we were relatively flat, so I'll comment on a year-over-year basis. They were down 7% as you indicated and this was primarily due to a significant increase in the sales of our entry SKUs where we had made them more affordable to attract more first-time smart buyers. We've also encouraged some FX headwinds from the yen, the Australian dollar and a number of the emerging markets which impacted us as well. I don't want to forecast ASPs for the December quarter. We'll report to you in January what they were. But the FX headwinds will likely continue given where exchange rates are today.

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