AAPL - Apple Inc.

[Guest valueInv]

Samsung is gonna spend $14B on marketing next year:

 

http://mobile.theverge.com/2013/11/29/5156774/samsung-top-ad-spenders-but-message-isnt-getting-across-efficiently

[Guest wellmont]

Looking at mobile (smartphones and tablets) Apple owns the US market, with the largest market share of any manufacturer.  When you look at the high end segment Apple is even more dominant. 

 

Apple looks to be in the process of also owning the Japanese market for mobile devices, now that it has docomo on board. October sales show Apple with more than 70% of all smartphone sales,  including 61% at docomo.  The Japanese market is even more profitable for Apple than the US market.

 

With Apple increasing its sales and profits in both the US and Japan,  Apple has a great beachhead. Should a deal with China Mobile come together then growth in China will be guaranteed for the next couple of years.  Moving forward in Europe, I expect Microsofts purchase of Nokia to help Apple in the coming year as Microsoft is not viewed as favourably as Nokia in Europe.  The shine is also coming off Samsung as people come to better understand its business model. Weave all of this together and we get the sentiment change we are now seeing with Apple the stock. The question becomes how much higher can Apple go from here ($545)?

 

apple does well in wealthy mature markets. but it's getting left behind elsewhere, especially in China where it's not even on the map really. I think your thesis about Nokia/Msft is really a stretch btw. I don't think the average buyer of mobile devices is quite that nuanced in their buying decisions. be that as it may, it's not nokia that apple has to worry about.

 

More than 30 million iPhones made their way into consumers' hands last quarter, but a massive leap in the overall size of the smartphone market — some 46 percent, or almost 80 million units — diluted Apple's share from 14.3 percent a year ago to 12.1 percent today, according to new research from Gartner. Chinese vendor Lenovo was the primary beneficiary of Apple's decline, booking a rocket-like 85 percent market share increase.

 

82% of global smartphones are now Android. 12% are apple, down 2% points from a year ago.

 

I own a little bit of apple and I am absolutely euphoric that the stock is up today. :)

[Guest valueInv]

Looking at mobile (smartphones and tablets) Apple owns the US market, with the largest market share of any manufacturer.  When you look at the high end segment Apple is even more dominant. 

 

Apple looks to be in the process of also owning the Japanese market for mobile devices, now that it has docomo on board. October sales show Apple with more than 70% of all smartphone sales,  including 61% at docomo.  The Japanese market is even more profitable for Apple than the US market.

 

With Apple increasing its sales and profits in both the US and Japan,  Apple has a great beachhead. Should a deal with China Mobile come together then growth in China will be guaranteed for the next couple of years.  Moving forward in Europe, I expect Microsofts purchase of Nokia to help Apple in the coming year as Microsoft is not viewed as favourably as Nokia in Europe.  The shine is also coming off Samsung as people come to better understand its business model. Weave all of this together and we get the sentiment change we are now seeing with Apple the stock. The question becomes how much higher can Apple go from here ($545)?

 

apple does well in wealthy mature markets. but it's getting left behind elsewhere, especially in China where it's not even on the map really. I think your thesis about Nokia/Msft is really a stretch btw.

 

More than 30 million iPhones made their way into consumers' hands last quarter, but a massive leap in the overall size of the smartphone market — some 46 percent, or almost 80 million units — diluted Apple's share from 14.3 percent a year ago to 12.1 percent today, according to new research from Gartner. Chinese vendor Lenovo was the primary beneficiary of Apple's decline, booking a rocket-like 85 percent market share increase.

 

There is no "decline". They grew in China last year.

 

You still seem to have a hard time getting the concept of segmentation.

[Viking]

Wellmont, I think that nationalism absolutely plays a very important role in smartphone sales. I am not saying this is the most important factor. There is a reason Samsung dominates South Korea but will never sell as well in Japan. Being an American company obviously helps Apple's sales in the US.

 

Looking at Europe, is it surprising that this is nokia's strongest market for smartphones showing the most growth? With Nokia now owned by Microsoft I think they will lose this local advantage over time. Not a huge deal, but still an important one.

 

Regarding China, if Apple can get a distribution deal with China Mobile they will see very good sales in the premium segment. Total units and profits will grow nicely. As sales of cheap smartphones explode of course Apple will 'lose' share. They own the premium market for smartphones, tablets and pc's; as long as this continues I will be a happy camper.

 

I am also happy to see Apple shares trending higher. Christmas may come early...

[Guest valueInv]

iOS drove 82% of sales, 450% more than Andriod:

 

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/11/29/apples-iphone-ipad-account-for-over-80-percent-of-online-black-friday-shopping

[Guest valueInv]

Remember Siri users Wolfram Alpha:

 

http://venturebeat.com/2013/11/29/sentient-code-an-inside-look-at-stephen-wolframs-utterly-new-insanely-ambitious-computational-paradigm/

[Viking]

Apple's 82% share of mobile sales during Black Friday is evidence that all customers are NOT created equal. Especially in The US, Apple owns the affluent consumer segment. Few understand, recognize or appreciate the strength of Apple's business model. It has taken them years to build and every year the moat is getting bigger and Mr. Market does not see it... yet. However, it does look like the pendulum is beginning to swing the other way and sentiment does look like it is improving. The stock is up 40% from its lows of a few months ago.

[fareastwarriors]

Apple is still hot in Japan.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-28/apple-won-76-of-japan-smartphone-sales-in-october-kantar-says.html

 

Apple Won 76% of Japan October Smartphone Sales, Kantar Says

[Guest valueInv]

Apple's 82% share of mobile sales during Black Friday is evidence that all customers are NOT created equal. Especially in The US, Apple owns the affluent consumer segment. Few understand, recognize or appreciate the strength of Apple's business model. It has taken them years to build and every year the moat is getting bigger and Mr. Market does not see it... yet. However, it does look like the pendulum is beginning to swing the other way and sentiment does look like it is improving. The stock is up 40% from its lows of a few months ago.

 

The ideal scenario would have been the market to realize it even later, giving Apple to buyback more shares for cheap. Unfortunately, that window seems to have closed.

[hardincap]

Apple's 82% share of mobile sales during Black Friday is evidence that all customers are NOT created equal. Especially in The US, Apple owns the affluent consumer segment. Few understand, recognize or appreciate the strength of Apple's business model. It has taken them years to build and every year the moat is getting bigger and Mr. Market does not see it... yet. However, it does look like the pendulum is beginning to swing the other way and sentiment does look like it is improving. The stock is up 40% from its lows of a few months ago.

 

The ideal scenario would have been the market to realize it even later, giving Apple to buyback more shares for cheap. Unfortunately, that window seems to have closed.

 

CFO needs to be fired. Their cash balance stayed at ridiculous levels while the stock was clearly very undervalued. What in the world do you need 10% of all corporate cash in america for!?

[Guest valueInv]

Some Black Friday data points:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/walmart-reports-hot-black-friday-tablet-sales-led-215531387.html

 

http://venturebeat.com/2013/11/29/apples-ipad-comes-out-a-big-winner-on-black-friday/

[Guest valueInv]

Apple's 82% share of mobile sales during Black Friday is evidence that all customers are NOT created equal. Especially in The US, Apple owns the affluent consumer segment. Few understand, recognize or appreciate the strength of Apple's business model. It has taken them years to build and every year the moat is getting bigger and Mr. Market does not see it... yet. However, it does look like the pendulum is beginning to swing the other way and sentiment does look like it is improving. The stock is up 40% from its lows of a few months ago.

 

The ideal scenario would have been the market to realize it even later, giving Apple to buyback more shares for cheap. Unfortunately, that window seems to have closed.

 

CFO needs to be fired. Their cash balance stayed at ridiculous levels while the stock was clearly very undervalued. What in the world do you need 10% of all corporate cash in america for!?

 

There are plenty of CFOs who do worse than Oppenheimer. If anything, they are being too conservative. Hardly a firing offense. I'll take conservative over the opposite any day.

[frommi]

In the longterm i see the problem that the smartphone market won`t grow forever. Some time in the future the same will happen to the smartphone market as did recently to the pc market. Old smartphones will be used longer and longer and when you have 2 phones you don`t buy a third one. Currently that is not a problem but in 10-20 years this will hit AAPL hard and kill most other smartphone vendors with light margins. Thats the reason AAPL is only a trading position for me, if the market for AAPL shares would close today for 10 years i would run for the exit.

[Guest valueInv]

In the longterm i see the problem that the smartphone market won`t grow forever. Some time in the future the same will happen to the smartphone market as did recently to the pc market. Old smartphones will be used longer and longer and when you have 2 phones you don`t buy a third one. Currently that is not a problem but in 10-20 years this will hit AAPL hard and kill most other smartphone vendors with light margins. Thats the reason AAPL is only a trading position for me, if the market for AAPL shares would close today for 10 years i would run for the exit.

 

And the assumption here is that Apple is going to sit still for 10 years while this is happening?

[frommi]

And the assumption here is that Apple is going to sit still for 10 years while this is happening?

 

No, but perhaps i am not visionary enough to see the next big profit gadget coming from apple.  :)

[Palantir]

Why not? Developing products is not magic, they do not have an oracle sitting in Cupertino that sees into the future and an iPhone falls from the heavens. Developing products is a repeatable process that anyone can do, and I don't think it is impossible to analyze Apple's future product roadmap.

[frommi]

Why not? Developing products is not magic, they do not have an oracle sitting in Cupertino that sees into the future and an iPhone falls from the heavens. Developing products is a repeatable process that anyone can do, and I don't think it is impossible to analyze Apple's future product roadmap.

 

Sorry but the only profitable product that Apple has invented in the last 10 years was the iphone, which was only a forward step from the ipod. And the ipad is an iphone with a bigger screen, so in the end they have only produced one great hit in 10 years. I seriously doubt that Apple can reproduce that, simply because they are much too big for real inventions.

Thats the problem with Apple they need to innovate with new products to stay alive in the future, MSFT,GOOG or IBM don`t have such problems. But as i said, these problems won`t arise in the next 2-3 years but someday they will.

[Guest valueInv]

Why not? Developing products is not magic, they do not have an oracle sitting in Cupertino that sees into the future and an iPhone falls from the heavens. Developing products is a repeatable process that anyone can do, and I don't think it is impossible to analyze Apple's future product roadmap.

 

Sorry but the only profitable product that Apple has invented in the last 10 years was the iphone, which was only a forward step from the ipod. And the ipad is an iphone with a bigger screen, so in the end they have only produced one great hit in 10 years. I seriously doubt that Apple can reproduce that, simply because they are much too big for real inventions.

Thats the problem with Apple they need to innovate with new products to stay alive in the future, MSFT,GOOG or IBM don`t have such problems. But as i said, these problems won`t arise in the next 2-3 years but someday they will.

 

I suggest you educate yourself on Apple before you start posting.

[Guest valueInv]

Why not? Developing products is not magic, they do not have an oracle sitting in Cupertino that sees into the future and an iPhone falls from the heavens. Developing products is a repeatable process that anyone can do, and I don't think it is impossible to analyze Apple's future product roadmap.

 

Apparently not anyone ;)

[frommi]

I suggest you educate yourself on Apple before you start posting.

 

Uh? Apple was dead before Steve Jobs turned the company around, thats just a decade ago. Everything before just doesn`t matter anymore. Tell me one technology product anyone has invented in the last 20 years that has generated the same amount of profits the iphone has generated. Just one!

[hardincap]

Why not? Developing products is not magic, they do not have an oracle sitting in Cupertino that sees into the future and an iPhone falls from the heavens. Developing products is a repeatable process that anyone can do, and I don't think it is impossible to analyze Apple's future product roadmap.

 

Ahem, they in fact do have an oracle, and his name is Jony Ive. If he left Apple would not be the same company it was for the last 10 years.

[Palantir]

Ive is not an oracle, he is a talented hardware designer. His work is about repeatedly chipping away at designs until they find something good. Ive did not dream up the iPhone, iPad, iPod, iMac, or iTunes. It was a group effort by a lot of talented people working together.

[hardincap]

Ive is not an oracle, he is a talented hardware designer. His work is about repeatedly chipping away at designs until they find something good. Ive did not dream up the iPhone, iPad, iPod, iMac, or iTunes. It was a group effort by a lot of talented people working together.

 

Did you read Jobs' biography? Actually yes, he did dream up the iPhone and iPad. Much of iMac designs too. You cant call him merely a talented hardware designer; he's the heart and soul of apple.

[Palantir]

Yes I have, and no he did no such thing. He has an important role in Apple, that goes without saying, but he is not some sort of oracle who can see years into the future and dream up products. So no, he did not "invent" the iPhone or iPad (as valueInv has claimed!).

[hardincap]

Yes I have, and no he did no such thing. He has an important role in Apple, that goes without saying, but he is not some sort of oracle who can see years into the future and dream up products. So no, he did not "invent" the iPhone or iPad (as valueInv has claimed!).

 

Who created the first touchscreen iphone/ipad prototype?