Palantir Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Good news if true. I should have bought more. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 subsidy model going bye bye.... http://www.afterdawn.com/news/article.cfm/2013/12/11/at_t_smartphone_hardware_subsidies_are_likely_dead_into_the_future?utm_source=adeng_news&utm_medium=tickerbar&utm_campaign=englishNews It's not really a subsidy, though, is it? There's no such thing as a free lunch. People pay the whole price, just over time, through higher monthly payments. It's not as if carriers have been generously paying for people's phones so far and now want to stop. They're just offering a form of financing that's rolled up into a single price. I don't see why these would go away because competitors who don't stop would have a big advantage, and even if everybody does it at the same time cartel-like, everybody will just sell fewer devices because most people would rather pay nothing up-front and a bit more per month than a big chunk up-front and a bit less per month (facts show this -- a lot more people go for that than for expensive unlocked phones). Not to mention that without this form of financing, they won't be able to lock people into long-term contracts as effectively, which is a big downside when you look at how much each customer is worth to them and at the customer acquisition costs. Maybe they'll do it differently, like by splitting the service payments from the device payments (offering low-cost financing that ends up being similar to the current model in practice), though. In fact, I think the pressure is for that form of phone financing to get adopted in countries where it's not present. As soon as one carrier does it, it has a big advantage over competitors, and then they all have to do it. It's similar to how all auto makers offer financing for their products so you don't have to pay for it all up-front -- if they didn't, they'd sell fewer vehicles. That's my reasoning, anyway. You nailed it. Before, the "subsidy" was paid back by the customer by bundling it with the service. Now, they are splitting it out and calling it what it is - "financing". Far from decreasing, financing is increasing - ATT's Next plan makes it easier to upgrade each year. T-mobile started this trend and is moving aggressively - You can get a 5s and a iPad mini for $0 down. And T-mobile is winning customers. In other words, this may well drive an increase in upgrades, not a decrease. More on this: http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/12/15/shameless-carriers/ On decreasing subsidy: You see a lot of retailers like Walmart and others discount iPhones. For example, Walmart is selling the 5c for $27. There are three possibilities: 1, Apple is offering Walmart a discount and Walmart keeps its margins. 2, Apple offers no discount, Walmart is losing a lot of money offering the discount itself 3, The operators offer a kickback to Walmart for selling a contract, which is then passed on to the customer as a discount i.e. a true subsidy Take your guess ;) You saw what happened when NTT DOCOMO caved and started carrying the iPHONE. Price war. The big key is that Apple iPhone customers are the carriers' best customers. I wonder if that'll happen in China. (obviously not to the same extent as the iPhone is super popular in Japan) If two new operators get 4G licenses, expect a big price war with the iPhone in the middle. Especially if Jack Ma is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 And we have a hit: http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-iphone-5s-commercial-misunderstood-will-hit-you-right-feels-video-1512502 Compare that to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8nJKWJTsUg and this: http://9to5mac.com/2013/12/18/comparing-the-newest-apple-nokia-marketing-spots-makes-us-weep-for-humanity/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yeah I want to gouge my eyes out Oedipus-style after watching that. MS' ads have been awful the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Compare that to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8nJKWJTsUg and this: http://9to5mac.com/2013/12/18/comparing-the-newest-apple-nokia-marketing-spots-makes-us-weep-for-humanity/ I guess if there's an award for creepy ads, it'll be hard to pick a winner this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I guess we will see tomorrow how much the chimo deal was already discounted. I mean it was not exactly a secret.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Thanks to AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, RHT my portfolio returns have been inflated. I need to find some new stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I guess we will see tomorrow how much the chimo deal was already discounted. I mean it was not exactly a secret.... Looks like it wasn't quite all priced in yet... But there's still huge uncertainty in media reports about how many iPhones will be sold through China Mobile. I've seen numbers ranging from 12m/year to 40m/year. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw numbers close to the top of that range because it isn't just the iPhone that is launching, it's also a new 4G network that is rolling out. Most Chinese customers were not even on 3G, they were on EDGE. So going from EDGE to LTE is a huge draw for the iPhone that wasn't there before, even for people getting them on the gray market. A iPhone on LTE is qualitatively more useful than a iPhone stuck on EDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 For Pros, a Sleek Computer With Power Inside Review: Apple’s New Mac Pro Computer http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/26/technology/personaltech/review-apples-new-mac-pro-computer.html?ref=business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 http://www.macrumors.com/2013/12/26/ios-remains-more-popular-than-android-among-holiday-shoppers-in-the-u-s/ As a percentage of total online sales, iOS was more than five times higher than Android, driving 23 percent vs. 4.6 percent for Android. On average, iOS users spent $93.94 per order, nearly twice that of Android users, who spent $48.10 per order. iOS also led as a component of overall traffic with 32.6 percent vs. 14.8 percent for Android. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-27/apple-s-ios-defeats-android-in-battle-of-christmas-day-shopping.html Apple’s IOS Defeats Android in Battle of Christmas Day Shopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 http://www.macrumors.com/2013/12/26/ios-remains-more-popular-than-android-among-holiday-shoppers-in-the-u-s/ As a percentage of total online sales, iOS was more than five times higher than Android, driving 23 percent vs. 4.6 percent for Android. On average, iOS users spent $93.94 per order, nearly twice that of Android users, who spent $48.10 per order. iOS also led as a component of overall traffic with 32.6 percent vs. 14.8 percent for Android. interesting. yet another article confirming what everybody already knows. that Rich People in the United States like Apple more than Android--for now. And really, a survey about what people bought on Xmas day? It stands to reason that people who buy things on Xmas day online are rich! Everybody else is tapped out. So this survey is really presenting self evident information, and the market's non reaction to such "news" is confirmation of this. And that "huge" china mobile news? Not so much. the stock is trading about where it traded a month ago, well before the official announcement. ever wonder why this kind of article never seems to move the stock much? Because the markets already have figured out where smartphones and tablets are going on a global basis. They know that apple will lose share globally and maintain high end share in US. And mobile devices are pretty much all of Apple's business. What moves apple stock is financial engineering, or lack of it, as we saw yesterday. You see that apple CEO told investors he didn't like activist's idea that they should buy back a lot more stock. And investors were disappointed that Apple wants to continue to hoard it's cash. Two things will move the stock. One, more capital returned to shareholders. Two, proof that Apple has something else going for it other than Ipads and Iphones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 As I said before, not everything that is important is surprising. Confirming that Apple users are more profitable is like confirming that BAC's expenses are going down. Not a surprise, but you wouldn't want to see something else. This year, getting smartphones and tablets for xmas was probably the hottest gift possible. If people get a new device and aren't as tempted to go use it right away, that tells you something. This survey is just one more and is consistent with past ones. And looking at Apple's market share in the US, defining that whole segment as "rich" means that your definition of rich is pretty broad. I know a lot of Apple users who certainly wouldn't consider themselves rich... Looking at the market reaction to see if something Apple did was a good move is letting yourself be guided by Mr. Market. The market went down on a lot of Apple announcements that turned out to be great; what will matter in the end is how much cash comes in, and things like China Mobile and NTT will help a lot, as should larger iPhones next year, new products, iOS in the car, etc. I'm more interested in profit share than in market share. As long as the money's there, developers will stay. That's why the Mac has great software and tons of developers despite a smaller market share than windows. Cars have been around for a long time yet BMWs and Porches aren't selling for the same price as Toyotas and Hyundais. Computers have been around for a long time, yet Macs still command a big premium over the little-differentiated razor-thin margin generic PCs from everybody else... How much do people pay for Nike running shoes vs generic ones, etc. It's possible to have a thriving consumer business if you earn people's trust and give them differentiated products of the highest quality. Not at any price, though. The stock is up a lot in past months, and I'm more worried about it going up faster than IV and reducing my MoS than about Samsung suddenly making better products than Apple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Fundamentals are only interesting in the long run, it doesn`t matter if AAPL sells 5 million smartphones more this year or next year for the shareprice tomorrow or in a month. In that timeframe only psychology matters. Most of the time when everything looks rosy is the best time to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think Apple has a lot more growth coming. I could totally see them sell a $1k TV, another maybe $200-300 dollar watch, and be huge hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Fundamentals are only interesting in the long run, it doesn`t matter if AAPL sells 5 million smartphones more this year or next year for the shareprice tomorrow or in a month. In that timeframe only psychology matters. Most of the time when everything looks rosy is the best time to sell. As value investors, why should we care about fundamentals? ;) Let's join the herd :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 As we entered 2013 Apple had many question marks: 1.) top line sales growth was slowing; would it ever re-accelerate again? 2.) gross margins were falling; how low would they go before finding a bottom? 3.) Samsung could do no wrong and appeared poised to take the innovation mantle from Apple; was Samsung going to take the high end market from Apple? 4.) what was Apple going to do with all it's cash? 5.) post Steve Jobs, can Apple still innovate into new categories? 11 months later, we have some answers: 1.) by adding docomo and now China mobile, top line sales will show some nice growth year over year. IPad should also support stronger growth in top line. 2.) GM's look like they have bottomed at about 37 or 38%. 3.) expectations for Samsung have come down to earth; they do not look to be on the verge of passing Apple in innovation. Apple actually looks to be growing its share of the high end market. Blackberry's unexpected implosion has helped Apple grow into the enterprise segment. 4.) Apple increased the dividend, increased the stock buyback by $60 billion and then accelerated the buyback. More to be announced shortly. 5.) other than the Mac Pro, little groundbreaking innovation in new categories happened in 2013. I am an optimist; I believe 'stuff' is coming so lack of action in 2013 does not overly concern me. Weave it all together and as we enter 2014 Apple has many tailwinds. Not surprisingly, the stock has had a nice run from $400 to $560 or so today. My guess is the favourable winds will continue to push Apple higher in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 In other news, Armani has been losing marketshare to Old Navy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 In-depth Mac Pro review from the best hardware reviewer, fresh from the oven: http://www.anandtech.com/show/7603/mac-pro-review-late-2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/01/03/china-mobiles-costly-iphone-deal-with-apple/?mod=WSJ_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond China Mobile’s Costly Deal With Apple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 subsidy model going bye bye.... http://www.afterdawn.com/news/article.cfm/2013/12/11/at_t_smartphone_hardware_subsidies_are_likely_dead_into_the_future?utm_source=adeng_news&utm_medium=tickerbar&utm_campaign=englishNews Yeah, sure ::): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-03/at-t-seeks-to-poach-t-mobile-customers-with-450-in-credits.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 apple execs: we know nothing! The denial was prompted by a report this week in the German newspaper Der Spiegel which revealed that the NSA uses software known as DROPOUT JEEP to monitor an iPhone user's files, text messages, contact lists, and location data. The technology was also capable of using the iPhone's camera and even its microphone. http://rt.com/usa/apple-deny-nsa-monitor-iphone-046/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Can't count the number of times I've heard that Samsung is out-innovating Apple. Well, at least someone knows the truth: http://venturebeat.com/2014/01/03/samsung-chairman-we-need-to-dump-old-habits-and-start-innovating-around-the-clock/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikhil25 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/04/snappylabs/ Apple acquires small startup to improve iPhone camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Erci Schmidt demonstrating vision: Amid his standard “I won’t comment on a competitor’s products,” competitors such as Google’s Eric Schmidt said snidely, “You might want to tell me the difference between a large phone and a tablet.” Gates said, “I still think some mixture of voice, the pen, and a real keyboard will be the mainstream. It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.’” http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/11/one-ipad-to-rule-them-all-all-those-who-dream-big-are-not-lost/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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