Liberty Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No, the iPhone 4 is a crappy product, especially at anything above $400. There are some great phones available in that range. If they sell below that price, adios to margins. Seems to me that Apple will be depending upon the prestige of its brand name rather than on selling a high quality product. You're trying way too hard to find "gotchas". Ah-ha! Apple might possibly sell the iPhone 4 in India.. This means that.. It's "depending upon the prestige of its brand name rather than on selling a high quality product." Yeah, because people don't try phones before buying them. Why didn't you say the same thing about the iPhone 4S still being sold? They're basically the same thing except faster and with a better camera, no? Or does that cross your own personal threshold between "crappy" and "good enough", but nobody else can have different criteria and find the 4 good enough? Shouldn't they just be selling the 5S and nothing else? Yeah, they should leave all that money on the table, that would make you happy. Or maybe if they did, you'd complain that Apple has no business sense and doesn't get the most out of its existing products by supplying them to market segments where there's obviously demand for them. And that they're concentrating too much on the super-high-end, ignoring the rest. Can't win, I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm not trying way too hard, if Apple is selling a four year old product, for which there are better alternatives, and pitching it as a premium product, it pretty much refutes your agenda of a) Apple products are better and b) they're going to milk cash flow out of the very high end. Anyways, this report is not definitive, why would Apple be considering doing this? If selling only to the super high end and being the "BMW of the phone market" was enough...why this? See, now you could say that the report is not factual, and Apple will never do this. But you're here defending their strategy. I wonder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm not trying way too hard, if Apple is selling a four year old product, for which there are better alternatives, and pitching it as a premium product, it pretty much refutes your agenda of a) Apple products are better and b) they're going to milk cash flow out of the very high end. Anyways, this report is not definitive, why would Apple be considering doing this? If selling only to the super high end and being the "BMW of the phone market" was enough...why this? See, now you could say that the report is not factual, and Apple will never do this. But you're here defending their strategy. I wonder... That makes no sense and addresses none of my points, you just repeat what you already said. Let's agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 iOS7 is pretty much non-functional on the iPhone 4 so I don't think they should still be selling the 4 anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 iOS7 is pretty much non-functional on the iPhone 4 so I don't think they should still be selling the 4 anywhere. I know people who run it and don't seem too bothered by it, though personally it would bother me. Going from 6 to 7 was a lot of changes in a short period of time, though, and that always requires a longer time to stabilize and patch up than more incremental releases. I wouldn't be surprised if iOS 7.1 had a lot of polish and optimizations that made it run better (on old and new devices). But still, all this is pretty immaterial to Apple's business. If anything, their mistake is not dumping old users fast enough and trying to keep supporting them for much longer than any competitor would. But it does engender customer trust to know you won't be cut loose after a year or whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Not bad: http://venturebeat.com/2014/01/14/foxconn-apple-iphone-5s-china-mobile-launch/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303595404579321402240063612?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303595404579321402240063612.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 So before the China Mobile deal: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/0_wn9IAmRZQ/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 protecting children "continues" to be top priority for CEO as Apple settles with Federal Trade Commission for $32.5m. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/16/technology/government-and-apple-settle-childrens-app-purchase-inquiry.html?_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 protecting children "continues" to be top priority for CEO as Apple settles with FCC for $32.5m. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/16/technology/government-and-apple-settle-childrens-app-purchase-inquiry.html?_r=0 37,000 claims with over half a billion iOS devices. Not bad. My understanding is they had a feature where you could have the device remember your password for X minutes after you entered it, which is convenient for people who want to buy a bunch of apps or songs in a row. But some people's kids figured that out and outwitted mommy and daddy. Not exactly a scandal. Guess that's a benefit of the fingerprint scanner... In fact, another benefit of the fingerprint scanner will be when they implement multi-user logins. Kiddo presses the home button and goes to his home screen, with his settings and documents. Daddy presses and ends up with his own screen and documents, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see that when the scanner makes its way to the iPad, though I'm just speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Interesting: http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/16/apple-widens-smartphone-gap-over-samsung-in-u-s-now-has-42-ownership-npd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The US is currently Apple's most important market, when looking at regions and sales and profits. Smartphones are Apple's most important hardware product, by far. So how is Apple doing with phone sales in the US? In Q4 2012 they had a 35% share of users. In Q4 2013 they had a 42% share of users. Also of significance, the smartphone market increased in size from 52% to 60% of the total phone market. Apple's total number of iPhone users in the US continues to grow rapidly. These users are wealthy and they spend money. They are likely to purchase iPads, macs and make purchases on iTunes. And sitting here in January 2014 and looking out to the next 12 months, Apple looks to be in a stronger position than 12 months ago. Apple's phone lineup is stronger than what it had 12 months ago. Samsung, the clear #2 player has lost a significant amount of momentum. All other players are losing share in the US market. I read a lot of articles on Apple. Pretty much every one that is negative on Apple's future is based on some imaginary issue. However, when you look at the underlying business and results Apple continues to grow its dominant position. Moving forward, by adding docomo as a carrier in Sept, and looking at sales of iPhones (taking 8 of the top 10 spots) it appears that Apple will become even more dominant in Japan than it is in the US. Japan is a very large market, large enough to impact total Apple results. Tomorrow, China Mobile will begin selling Apple's phones. This will provide Apple with strong growth in China for the next couple of years. Over the past year (to Sept 30) Apple reduced their share count from 939 to 899 million. A reasonable estimate is they will reduce their share count another 40 million to 860 million to Sept 2014. Net earnings were $37billion in fiscal 2013. With the iPhone, iPad and Mac lineup currently in place and docomo and china mobile added as carriers we should see net income start to grow again in fiscal 2014 to $39 billion or more. It would not surprise me to see Apple earn $45/share in fiscal 2014 which equates to about a 12 PE (with the shares trading at $550). Net cash was about $130 billion at Sept 2013. After another year of aggressive share buybacks net cash should still increase to perhaps $140 billion at Sept 2014. Divide by shares outstanding (860) = $163/share. $550-$163=$387 / $45 = 8.6 PE ratio net of cash on hand. Apple currently pays a quarterly dividend of $3.05/share. In April this will likely be increased 15% to $3.50 x 4 = $14.00 annualized / $550 = 2.54% yield Trading today at about $550/share, Apple has had a nice run since bottoming at $400 last summer. However, it's competitive position continues to improve, it's share count is coming down and it's net earnings are once again growing. I think Apple can provide investors with a 20% return in 2014. Should the company launch another breakthrough product then the upside will be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The US is currently Apple's most important market, when looking at regions and sales and profits. Smartphones are Apple's most important hardware product, by far. So how is Apple doing with phone sales in the US? In Q4 2012 they had a 35% share of users. In Q4 2013 they had a 42% share of users. Also of significance, the smartphone market increased in size from 52% to 60% of the total phone market. I would use those numbers only as a guide; indicative of a trend. The NPD survey is only 5000 users. However, both NPD and Comscore show a marketshare of around 42% and both show increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 subsidy model going bye bye.... http://www.afterdawn.com/news/article.cfm/2013/12/11/at_t_smartphone_hardware_subsidies_are_likely_dead_into_the_future?utm_source=adeng_news&utm_medium=tickerbar&utm_campaign=englishNews Yeah, sure ::): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-03/at-t-seeks-to-poach-t-mobile-customers-with-450-in-credits.html Yup, going bye bye alright ;): http://venturebeat.com/2014/01/08/t-mobile-will-pay-you-to-leave-competitors-early-up-to-350-per-line-for-5-lines/ Boy, this cutting subsidies disease seems to be spreading ;): http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/01/08/chinese-carriers-cut-iphone-contract-prices/ Some more info: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-china-mobile-launch-could-210045399.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/technology/apples-latest-foray-into-china-gets-a-weak-response.html?ref=business&_r=0 Hurdles Remain for Apple in China Despite New Deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/technology/apples-latest-foray-into-china-gets-a-weak-response.html?ref=business&_r=0 Hurdles Remain for Apple in China Despite New Deal Thanks. I wouldn't mind a few more articles like that to make buybacks more useful. Here's a different take on the NYT piece: http://blogs.computerworld.com/smartphones/23409/apples-china-mobile-iphone-launch-weak-really Who's right? Guess we'll only know when the numbers come in over the next few quarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is probably something nobody ever thought they would see in print. “But over the last year, there has been a real deterioration of the Apple brand.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is probably something nobody ever thought they would see in print. “But over the last year, there has been a real deterioration of the Apple brand.” Oh, people who have been following Apple for a while have seen it plenty of times before ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I think that Apple will do great in China. They can target the high end, and they will appeal to the wealthy due to their strong brand image and style. The problem IMO is going to be with Android going forward. Govt of China already has it in for Google, and the thought of a western firm having that much close contact with a huge section of its population, stealing their data is obviously going to make an authoritarian state uneasy. Apple, by being a niche, elite player will likely avoid that. Android may have high market share, but I suspect Google will not benefit. India OTOH, different story, and probably the opposite of what I said above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 When Apple does something big it is usually dismissed by the news media of the day. The last example was when the iPad was launched and that product has worked out pretty well for the company. The China Mobile deal will be a significant positive for Apple but it will likely take years to fully blossom. As China Mobile builds out their 3G network and as more devices are added, sales and profits for Apple should grow nicely. The good part of the stock selling off is it will allow Apple to repurchase more shares. It would not surprise me if in April Apple announces it will borrow another $17 to $20 billion to do another accelerated share repurchase. That is the silver lining when we get all this negative press when Apple does something exceptional that will drive profits over the long term. With all the cash they have on hand the more the shares they can repurchase at low prices the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 When Apple does something big it is usually dismissed by the news media of the day. The last example was when the iPad was launched and that product has worked out pretty well for the company. The China Mobile deal will be a significant positive for Apple but it will likely take years to fully blossom. As China Mobile builds out their 3G network and as more devices are added, sales and profits for Apple should grow nicely. The good part of the stock selling off is it will allow Apple to repurchase more shares. It would not surprise me if in April Apple announces it will borrow another $17 to $20 billion to do another accelerated share repurchase. That is the silver lining when we get all this negative press when Apple does something exceptional that will drive profits over the long term. With all the cash they have on hand the more the shares they can repurchase at low prices the better. I assume they are funding their repurchases from their US FCF? In that case, they should be able to do a lot more in repurchases for the last and first quarters of the calendar year due to increased holiday sales without having to borrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 protecting children "continues" to be top priority for CEO as Apple settles with Federal Trade Commission for $32.5m. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/16/technology/government-and-apple-settle-childrens-app-purchase-inquiry.html?_r=0 Looks like Google isn't too different on that front (well, the main difference is that Apple allowed 15 minutes while Google allows 30 minutes): http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2014/01/google-play-store-lets-your-kid-spend-like-a-drunken-sailor/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Woz clearing up some history: https://plus.google.com/u/0/+CarmsPerez/posts/cDK6ZNpZ6YH Also, note that the movie showed a time frame in which every computer Jobs developed was a failure. And they had millions of dollars behind them. My Apple ][ was developed on nothing and productized on very little. Yet it was the only revenue and profit source of the company for the first 10 years, well past the point that Jobs had left. The movie made it seem that board members didn't acknowledge Jobs' great work on Macintosh but when sales fall to a few hundred a month and the stock dives to 50% in a short time, someone has to save the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Awesome: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Icahn said on Twitter that he bought 500m more in AAPL shares in the past two weeks, now owns over 3 billion. Keeps pressuring for larger buyback and will release another letter about it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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