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China Mobile added 20MM subs onto its 4G network last month. Annualize CN Mobile's first 3 month 2015 4G subs additions (212MM) and you are adding in one year almost the total number of postpaid wireless connections (including tablets) of the big 4 US carriers (235MM). This process will repeat soon on the more urban CN Unicom and CN Telecom networks which were slow to the punch on LTE but have a higher uptake on 3G.

 

http://www.chinamobileltd.com/webapp/en/ir/operation_monthly.php

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Anyone know anyone who bought the watch yet?  the Samsung watch (of which there are now three generations) hasn't really taken off in a big way.  It is a neat technical trick, but no one seems to have bitten on it yet.  Will a generation that has never worn watches suddenly decide that they need something on their wrist?

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Anyone know anyone who bought the watch yet?  the Samsung watch (of which there are now three generations) hasn't really taken off in a big way.  It is a neat technical trick, but no one seems to have bitten on it yet.  Will a generation that has never worn watches suddenly decide that they need something on their wrist?

 

The lack of success of Samsung's watches has no bearing at all on the failure or success of Apple Watch. The way they products are positioned and marketed is totally different.

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This is what genius is like. 1997 internal meeting at Apple, Steve just starting to turn the company around, finding the core of things, focusing on what matters, etc. It's not just about getting the numbers right or whatever..

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GMQhOm-Dqo

 

The sound is mangled in the ad because of copyright issues. You can hear a better version here:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM8GiNGcXuM

 

And the version that never ran publicly, with Jobs reading it:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rwsuXHA7RA

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Anyone know anyone who bought the watch yet?  the Samsung watch (of which there are now three generations) hasn't really taken off in a big way.  It is a neat technical trick, but no one seems to have bitten on it yet.  Will a generation that has never worn watches suddenly decide that they need something on their wrist?

 

I know at least 10 people, including myself, who have ordered it.  One person stayed up until 2 and wisely used the Apple Store iOS app got his (and one for his sister) on release day.

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Liberty, that is income per month, not per year. I saw that the person at Kantar in the article said it was per year, but that is not so. The minimum wage, depending on jurisdiction, is around RMB 1,500 to RMB 2,500 per month. NOT per year. It's laughable that even after the article writer checked with Kantar, Kantar actually confirmed the mistake. Salary in China is habitually given per month, not per year. And actually, that understates salary a bit, as employees are given a "13th month" bonus every year in addition to any other bonuses or incentives.

 

By the way, I saw my first Apple Watch in the wild in China yesterday. It was an Apple Watch Sport on the subway. Everyone around was looking at it as well.

 

 

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Liberty, that is income per month, not per year. I saw that the person at Kantar in the article said it was per year, but that is not so. The minimum wage, depending on jurisdiction, is around RMB 1,500 to RMB 2,500 per month. NOT per year. It's laughable that even after the article writer checked with Kantar, Kantar actually confirmed the mistake. Salary in China is habitually given per month, not per year. And actually, that understates salary a bit, as employees are given a "13th month" bonus every year in addition to any other bonuses or incentives.

 

By the way, I saw my first Apple Watch in the wild in China yesterday. It was an Apple Watch Sport on the subway. Everyone around was looking at it as well.

 

That did seem a bit crazy, thanks for the correction. It's still an impressive number even per month.

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Everyone around was looking at it as well.

 

That must be a key aspect of the watch appeal, if you like that kind of attention.

 

 

The iPhone was very notable in public too when it was brand new. Soon enough, it won't attract that kind of attention.

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Looks like iOS has 72% of the enterprise market in the US. Not too shabby for a consumer product.

 

http://venturebeat.com/2015/05/11/ios-slips-to-72-enterprise-share-in-q1-2015-android-hits-26-and-windows-phone-stays-flat-at-1/

 

Interesting post about the penetration of smartphones in the US and China (among other things):

 

http://www.asymco.com/2015/05/11/winning-against-non-consumption/

 

http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Screen-Shot-2015-05-11-at-5-11-2.45.29-PM.png

 

So according to comScore’s data, the US market is at 77% smartphone usage. My assumption is that saturation would come at the earliest at 90% and could be 100%.[2] The fact that conversion to smartphones is still proceeding at roughly the same rate it has been for five years, makes this assumption pretty safe. [...]

 

Note that the curve continues to rise even into 2020, and that this is the US only.

 

The US is the most highly penetrated market but it’s not the biggest. That would be China. So it’s not surprising that two years after declaring US growth was over, IDC claims “China’s smartphone market has reached saturation“.

 

Chinese penetration is far below the US. It was estimated at 43% by the end of 2014. If we assume Chinese users are no less hungry for information than US consumers, then why should Chinese stop adopting the technology at less than half of US levels of use?

 

That would be risky.

 

Once penetration gets closer to maxed out (will take a while for the biggest market, China, and even longer for India, etc), you still have the replacement cycle, which by then will be bigger than replacement + growth is today.

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You certainly can't please everybody, and if you try, you'll just make your products worse.

 

Edit: You know a product is hot when politicians want to be associated with it:

 

http://9to5mac.com/community/jeb-bush-praises-apple-watch-health-apps-newt-gingrich-prepares-to-review-it/

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It being dependent on the iPhone really prohibits me from wanting one. I have an iPhone, but the main thing I'd want an apple watch for would be fitness. I don't bring my phone with me on runs, but would like something to track distance. Needing to bring my phone with me to use the apple watch is pointless. Seems like I'd be happier with a Fitbit as well at this point.

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It being dependent on the iPhone really prohibits me from wanting one. I have an iPhone, but the main thing I'd want an apple watch for would be fitness. I don't bring my phone with me on runs, but would like something to track distance. Needing to bring my phone with me to use the apple watch is pointless. Seems like I'd be happier with a Fitbit as well at this point.

 

The watch can track distance pretty well even without the phone. Someone did a test of it, running a course that they knew exactly the distance of, and the watch got it basically right on the nose. What you won't have is the tracing of the route on a map.

 

Later versions will no doubt have GPS and a cell radio, but the tech just isn't there yet, You can't have a computer on your wrist of that size that has all these radios without going through the battery like crazy.

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Later versions will no doubt have GPS and a cell radio, but the tech just isn't there yet, You can't have a computer on your wrist of that size that has all these radios without going through the battery like crazy.

 

 

The technology does exist. Fitbit already has GPS.

 

 

Apple could have added it if they wanted to. I think it's a classic example of them just leaving things out to have things to add to future versions.

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Later versions will no doubt have GPS and a cell radio, but the tech just isn't there yet, You can't have a computer on your wrist of that size that has all these radios without going through the battery like crazy.

 

 

The technology does exist. Fitbit already has GPS.

 

 

Apple could have added it if they wanted to. I think it's a classic example of them just leaving things out to have things to add to future versions.

 

I'm not saying you can't have a GPS on your wrist. I'm saying you can't have a GPS on an Apple Watch and have batteries last long enough. A Fitbit isn't an Apple Watch, not even close.

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Later versions will no doubt have GPS and a cell radio, but the tech just isn't there yet, You can't have a computer on your wrist of that size that has all these radios without going through the battery like crazy.

 

 

The technology does exist. Fitbit already has GPS.

 

 

Apple could have added it if they wanted to. I think it's a classic example of them just leaving things out to have things to add to future versions.

 

I'm not saying you can't have a GPS on your wrist. I'm saying you can't have a GPS on an Apple Watch and have batteries last long enough. A Fitbit isn't an Apple Watch, not even close.

 

 

but if you have your phone with you, in say your backpack, you could have proxy GPS available at a glance.  Maybe a small convenience.

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but if you have your phone with you, in say your backpack, you could have proxy GPS available at a glance.  Maybe a small convenience.

 

The Watch does have GPS access through the phone as long as the phone is within bluetooth/wifi distance, so that already exists.

 

What most people don't realize is that dreaming up a list features isn't enough. People who don't know how making things work just handwave it all away and think you can sprinkle magic and it'll just work. They forget that you actually have to do the design and engineering and make it work, and that there are serious technological and manufacturing limitations and constraints.

 

Design is not about how something looks - that aesthetics - design is about making choices. A Fitbit can have GPS because its makers made other design choices that allow it to have GPS (screen type and size, what kind of software it can run, what kind of connectivity it has, battery size, what are the use cases and what type of daily power budget is required, etc).

 

The Apple Watch has made different design choices and has different use cases, and right now the technology requires some tradeoffs, such as the lack of onboard GPS and cell radio. As technology progresses, these tradeoffs will stop being necessary, just like the original iPhone didn't even have 3G, a front-facing camera, couldn't shoot video, etc.

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Later versions will no doubt have GPS and a cell radio, but the tech just isn't there yet, You can't have a computer on your wrist of that size that has all these radios without going through the battery like crazy.

 

 

The technology does exist. Fitbit already has GPS.

 

 

Apple could have added it if they wanted to. I think it's a classic example of them just leaving things out to have things to add to future versions.

 

I'm not saying you can't have a GPS on your wrist. I'm saying you can't have a GPS on an Apple Watch and have batteries last long enough. A Fitbit isn't an Apple Watch, not even close.

 

 

but if you have your phone with you, in say your backpack, you could have proxy GPS available at a glance.  Maybe a small convenience.

 

 

For people who go for runs with their backpack.

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