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"I don't want to be the sort of person who makes a big dramatic statement about selling my watch, especially since I probably won't end up selling it."

 

So she writes an article on Business Insider?

 

Seems to be a pretty popular consensus though (at least among bloggers) that it's nice product, but people don't really see the point in wearing/owning one.

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"I don't want to be the sort of person who makes a big dramatic statement about selling my watch, especially since I probably won't end up selling it."

 

So she writes an article on Business Insider?

 

Seems to be a pretty popular consensus though (at least among bloggers) that it's nice product, but people don't really see the point in wearing/owning one.

 

He (it looks like a he not a she) doesn't want to make a big dramatic statement about it, but he does want to sell it, and it hasn't sold yet even after dropping the price, so he wants to drive traffic to his craigslist ad.

 

 

 

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So AT&T will no longer be subsidizing iPhones. Seems like potentially a huge blow to Apple, no?

 

Well, speaking for myself, I think it is a huge blow for ATT.  I currently have an iPhone and use ATT service.  If ATT abandons the subsidized model, then I will very likely buy my next iPhone after my contract has expired with ATT and use a different carrier that offers a subsidized model (e.g. VZ).

 

 

 

 

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So AT&T will no longer be subsidizing iPhones. Seems like potentially a huge blow to Apple, no?

 

Well, speaking for myself, I think it is a huge blow for ATT.  I currently have an iPhone and use ATT service.  If ATT abandons the subsidized model, then I will very likely buy my next iPhone after my contract has expired with ATT and use a different carrier that offers a subsidized model (e.g. VZ).

 

Yeah, I will also be very likely to leave AT&T in that case. Though it wouldn't be for the subsidy, it would be to move to a cheaper carrier.

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So AT&T will no longer be subsidizing iPhones. Seems like potentially a huge blow to Apple, no?

 

Well, speaking for myself, I think it is a huge blow for ATT.  I currently have an iPhone and use ATT service.  If ATT abandons the subsidized model, then I will very likely buy my next iPhone after my contract has expired with ATT and use a different carrier that offers a subsidized model (e.g. VZ).

 

In my case, totally agree. I went with ATT because of our 3 iPhones, and will move on to a subsidized carrier when contract expires.

I have to believe that T-mobile, etc view this as a great opportunity to pick off ATT customers.

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I'm not really interested in Apple as an investment but this was an interesting article: link.

 

Due to all the cash 'big tech' hoards they're actually becoming huge players in the bond market. Maybe not significant for valuation purposes but I never thought about this before. Interesting perspective.

 

Apple, which had $193.5 billion of cash and marketable securities as of March 28, is now one of the biggest buyers of shorter-term debt sold by investment grade companies, often taking as much as $200 million of a $1 billion issue, according to four people with knowledge of the deals.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-apple-dominates-online-video-150622779.html

 

[The iPhone] has about 18% unit share in the global smartphone market, according to IDC (International Data Corporation). However, when it comes to share of online video viewing, Apple dominates. [...] For Apple, this market share has, in fact, increased over the last year from 61% in 1Q14 to 68% in 1Q15.
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Saw this on Hacker News. One of the most succinct reasons as to why Apple can charge what they can and get away with it.

 

WildUtah 5 hours ago

 

Apple's storage pricing model would be unsustainable in a competitive environment. Entry level products with 16GB exist solely to establish a 'free' subsidized level while practical use requires a US$750 64GB model.

Ordinarily Samsung and Moto would make a phone of similar quality and charge the market rate of $8 for the 64GB upgrade to undercut Apple.

Unfortunately it's not a competitive market. Apple's 2013 iPhone 5S still has lower power use and more processing power the current Samsung phones because Apple invested in chip design and shipped an AArch64 chip Samsung can't match even with two years (1.33 Moore's Law cycles) of process upgrades and access to Apple's tapeouts.

Apple's screen process is still brighter with more faithful colors. Apple's case design is still more fashionable (even though I don't like the latest ones, they look slick). Apple's net software and services like maps and backup are catching up to Google and ahead of M'soft or anyone else. Apple still has better control over power consumption and background processing in its OS. Apple's user experience is still clearly better and easier than Samsung or Google.

A lot of that is Google losing interest in Motorola, the Nexus brand, and Android. The Nexus 5 was the last inexpensive high quality pure Android effort and it wasn't profitable. Motorola wasn't worth keeping. Android is good enough to keep Apple and Microsoft from squeezing Google off the net and that's all Google needs. Google hasn't even updated Android to take advantage of AArch64 which cripples all the Android phone makers against Apple.

Ultimately, Google knows that they can't compete against Apple because carriers have contempt for quality. No other maker but Apple has loyal and lucrative customers that will switch carriers to keep using Apple devices. Thus no other manufacturer has leverage to get the best quality devices it can make to users. Carriers want your phone crippled because they dream of controlling you and governments hand them monopolies so they can control your device maker.

The result is that only Apple can make a top flight device. And therefore they can use monopoly price discrimination tactics to bleed extra money from you for 64GB.

It beats the alternative which is carriers ruining all devices including Apple. I like Apple robbing me a lot more than AT&T or Telcel or Softbank or NT&T or China Mobile or Verizon.

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oddball, what a great summary and thanks for posting. For those who do not believe Apple has a moat, please read the previous post. The medium term issue for Apple is not competition; it is being labelled a monopoly by governments.

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I don't doubt Apple has a moat, but that article seemed biased in some respects to me.

- End-users don't care about processing power for the most part. High-end phones from any brand from even two years ago have a ton of power (compare them to, say, laptops 10 years ago...), more than enough for almost all apps.

- I'm pretty sure other phones have brighter screens than Apple's (not that it matters much...)

- Here in France - not sure about other European countries -, carrier bloat is not a problem yet Apple devices are hugely popular, so it's not all about that.

 

I think the marketing (Apple brand, ...), design and ease of use are the main factors for Apple's continued success.

(The iProducts are fine technology-wise, of course, but I don't think it's a big part of it.)

 

Disclosure: I don't own an iPhone.  ;)

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So yesterday I was at Costco. They had Samsung tablets on demo stands. I just swiped right and left on the equivalent of the home screen, and there was a distinct lag to every action compared to my iPad. This is something that the Android and Samsung people say they're working on basically every year (been going on for years now), and they apparently still can't get responsiveness right, even on a brand new tablet with no extra third-party stuff to slow things down.

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I went to a Xiaomi service center recently (to be fair, I think it was actually run by a third party, but most people wouldn't be able to tell the difference). The floor was filthy, there was trash everywhere, and the light wooden tables (which were obviously bought to resemble an Apple Store) were just trashed. There was a mock living room place, but it looked like an Ikea after a night of partying. Just disgusting. There were crumpled sheets of papers and cigarettes thrown in the fruit bowl.

 

The customer service was even worse!

 

Quite different from Apple Stores. Though some have been better and some have been worse, they all at least are clean and not a bad place to be in.

 

It's not easy to make something even closely resembling the Apple distribution and after-sales service experience. That's a big part of it, no matter how close other devices get (and they aren't close in many ways, as discussed above).

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Been playing around with Apple Music. Seems very good so far.

 

Doesn't actually stream to me in China without a VPN, although the interface is there. Wonder if it's different on devices set to the China app store.

 

The interface to me was a bit hard to use. I think it would not be apparent to many how to actually find music, without external guidance.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Where do I find the annual reports with the letter to shareholders? On Apple's investor relations page I can only find the forms 10-K that don't include the letters. Thanks.

 

Tim Cook does not write annual shareholder letters. The WWDC keynote and the big product keynotes, supplemented by earnings calls with analysts, are basically Apple's way of doing shareholder letters.

 

Apple expects that savvy developers monitor their veiled clues and make decisions based on that (Phil Schiller basically said so recently). I think they expect that from shareholders too, on some level.

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I am following a company. It's business is in a growth industry. It is the clear leader in its field. Its business has a moat that is increasing each year. The company is well managed. It has grown both top and bottom line at double digit rates for many years. Its future looks very bright.

 

Dividend yield = 1.6% and is expected to grow 10% per year

Share repurchases expected to reduce share count about 4% each of next two years

 

Current PE (Sept 2015) = 13.7

Future PE (Sept 2016) = 12.3

For reference, the current PE for the overall market is about 17 and earnings growth prospects for the general market are lower than for this company.

 

Net cash position = 20% of share price; if you include this here are the new PE's:

Current PE (Sept 2015) = 10.8

Future PE (Sept 2016) = 9.7

 

Are there risks? Of course.

Are there upside opportunities not built into the above analysis? Yes

The upside opportunities outweigh the risks.

 

Looks to me like there is a $20 bill lying on the street for anyone believing it is actually there and willing to pick it up.... :-)

 

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