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Loving the 6S so far. Not sure where they can go with iPhone 7, as tye 6/6s seems like the perfect form factor.

 

I actually prefer the form factor of the 5 and 5S. The 6 feels flimsy in comparison and also feels much easier to slip out of my hands.

 

I prefer the 5S size as well and that answers the original question.  Maybe the 7 will come in three sizes.  The 7, 7 plus, and 7 minus (with a 4" screen).

 

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Loving the 6S so far. Not sure where they can go with iPhone 7, as tye 6/6s seems like the perfect form factor.

 

I actually prefer the form factor of the 5 and 5S. The 6 feels flimsy in comparison and also feels much easier to slip out of my hands.

 

I prefer the 5S size as well and that answers the original question.  Maybe the 7 will come in three sizes.  The 7, 7 plus, and 7 minus (with a 4" screen).

 

I agree.  It’s just not as comfortable in my hand, and I only upgraded from the 5s to the 6s (not the plus).  I don’t think it’s flimsy (that may be the upgrades to the 6s) but I have definitely noticed a greater propensity to dropping it.

 

I will say it’s not uncomfortable or a problem in my pocket or anything, though.

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Loving the 6S so far. Not sure where they can go with iPhone 7, as tye 6/6s seems like the perfect form factor.

 

I actually prefer the form factor of the 5 and 5S. The 6 feels flimsy in comparison and also feels much easier to slip out of my hands.

 

I prefer the 5S size as well and that answers the original question.  Maybe the 7 will come in three sizes.  The 7, 7 plus, and 7 minus (with a 4" screen).

 

I agree.  It’s just not as comfortable in my hand, and I only upgraded from the 5s to the 6s (not the plus).  I don’t think it’s flimsy (that may be the upgrades to the 6s) but I have definitely noticed a greater propensity to dropping it.

 

I will say it’s not uncomfortable or a problem in my pocket or anything, though.

 

It takes a bit of time to get used to the new form factor if you are coming from the 5s. But if after a while you don't get used to it, you could try a case. My wife has the Apple silicone case on her 6 and it feels very grippy and comfortable in the hand, and the case feels very high quality. There are also leather cases, but I haven't tried them.

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My main criticisms of the 6 are that it is slippery and also a little uncomfortable to use one-handed because the screen is so big. My thumb has to (slightly painfully) contort itself each time I want to hit an on-display button close to the bottom of the screen, which is often enough that I notice. A rubber or silicone case certainly solves the 1st problem, but not the 2nd for me. But then again, this trend towards larger & larger screens is probably here to stay so my 2nd criticism probably applies to the whole field.

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My main criticisms of the 6 are that it is slippery and also a little uncomfortable to use one-handed because the screen is so big. My thumb has to (slightly painfully) contort itself each time I want to hit an on-display button close to the bottom of the screen, which is often enough that I notice. A rubber or silicone case certainly solves the 1st problem, but not the 2nd for me. But then again, this trend towards larger & larger screens is probably here to stay so my 2nd criticism probably applies to the whole field.

 

 

Yeah, it is harder to use with one hand. I like the tradeoff of the bigger screen though.

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http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/09/30Apple-Brings-Apple-Music-iTunes-Movies-iBooks-to-Customers-in-China-Starting-Today.html

 

Who knows if the timing of this is at all connected with the meeting with Xi Jinping. It's necessary, but late. The pricing is because of how much cheaper the competing services and apps are in China.

 

People have already gotten used to using third-party services for all these things on iOS. Once that happens, it’s a bit harder to get them back on defaults. It happened with apps in China, with the decline of jailbreaking,  so maybe it can happen again.

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Loving the 6S so far. Not sure where they can go with iPhone 7, as tye 6/6s seems like the perfect form factor.

 

I actually prefer the form factor of the 5 and 5S. The 6 feels flimsy in comparison and also feels much easier to slip out of my hands.

 

I believe that with the harder aluminum body on the 6s they used less teflon in the anodizing process which creates a firmer grip than the 6.

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A bearish view on the new iPhone...

 

Why I'm not upgrading to the iPhone 6s Plus

 

http://fortune.com/2015/09/25/iphone-6s-plus-upgrade/?xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE

 

The deeper argument, the one that undoubtedly keeps Apple, Samsung, and other companies’ execs up at night, is that no one really needs a new phone anymore. We’ve reached a tipping point, where most of us have phones that are fast enough and have large enough screens. That’s why the last few iterations of the iPhone, Galaxy, Moto and the like have delivered only incremental improvements; there’s nowhere left to go.

 

Of course, I don't agree. Instead, I think there are still lots of improvements that could be achieved and introduced both in hardware and in software.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

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A bearish view on the new iPhone...

 

Why I'm not upgrading to the iPhone 6s Plus

 

http://fortune.com/2015/09/25/iphone-6s-plus-upgrade/?xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE

 

The deeper argument, the one that undoubtedly keeps Apple, Samsung, and other companies’ execs up at night, is that no one really needs a new phone anymore. We’ve reached a tipping point, where most of us have phones that are fast enough and have large enough screens. That’s why the last few iterations of the iPhone, Galaxy, Moto and the like have delivered only incremental improvements; there’s nowhere left to go.

 

Of course, I don't agree. Instead, I think there are still lots of improvements that could be achieved and introduced both in hardware and in software.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

I'm with the guy who wrote the article.  But it's more dangerous than having nowhere to go.  The danger is that the next innovation is revolutionary not evolutionary, and comes from without Apple.  Rather like the original iPhone.

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Hmm I'm not sure if you use the terms appropriately ... the original iPhone was actually not revolutionary in the strict sense. Smartphones existed with all those features. They were just really crap. Apple's main strength is not necessarily to do something completely new, but to rethink what exists already in a way that makes it much more relevant.

 

I do agree with you, however, that it's hard to see what else they'll do to phones other than having them implanted.

 

A bearish view on the new iPhone...

 

Why I'm not upgrading to the iPhone 6s Plus

 

http://fortune.com/2015/09/25/iphone-6s-plus-upgrade/?xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE

 

The deeper argument, the one that undoubtedly keeps Apple, Samsung, and other companies’ execs up at night, is that no one really needs a new phone anymore. We’ve reached a tipping point, where most of us have phones that are fast enough and have large enough screens. That’s why the last few iterations of the iPhone, Galaxy, Moto and the like have delivered only incremental improvements; there’s nowhere left to go.

 

Of course, I don't agree. Instead, I think there are still lots of improvements that could be achieved and introduced both in hardware and in software.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

I'm with the guy who wrote the article.  But it's more dangerous than having nowhere to go.  The danger is that the next innovation is revolutionary not evolutionary, and comes from without Apple.  Rather like the original iPhone.

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Hmm I'm not sure if you use the terms appropriately ... the original iPhone was actually not revolutionary in the strict sense. Smartphones existed with all those features. They were just really crap. Apple's main strength is not necessarily to do something completely new, but to rethink what exists already in a way that makes it much more relevant.

 

 

Ha ha yes fair enough!  The "innovation" was making one that everyone wanted.

 

I should also say that I think there will be huge further innovation in phones but largely in the apps - and only part of that value accrues to Apple.

 

I am, however, no expert - just an interested user. 

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I do agree with you, however, that it's hard to see what else they'll do to phones other than having them implanted.

 

I think micro sensors will be implanted… And the new smartphones will be changed in order to receive many Tera bytes of data annually from those sensors. A constant monitoring and recording of our physiological parameters will be achieved in the not so distant future… At least, that’s what we all should hope for! And that’s in healthcare.

 

Then Apple has the whole market of business customers that is huge and until now very little penetrated. How could they write new software and introduce new hardware in order to becoming more appealing to business is anyone guess! The newly introduced keyboard for the iPad, though, might be a first example.

 

I think about smartphones like I think about LV purses: a purse is something women will always use… until a better product comes our way (and I don’t see anything on the horizon yet), a smartphone is something boys, girls, men, women, grandpas and grandmas will always use. You don’t ask “how much does it cost LV to produce a purse?”, and you don’t ask “what does the new LV purse accomplish that my old one can not?”… or do you? So, this is also something to be considered.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

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I think about smartphones like I think about LV purses: a purse is something women will always use… until a better product comes our way

 

But what if your new purse is so good, that you can now use it for 3 years instead of 2? Revenues will decline by 30% and profits by 50%.

This happened to PCs and tablets (even iPads), so its not a question of if it happens but when. Its no wonder that Apple now wants its customers to use the one year leasing option. The stock will only be a good investment when the majority of customers will decide to use that in the future.

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Then Apple has the whole market of business customers that is huge and until now very little penetrated. How could they write new software and introduce new hardware in order to becoming more appealing to business is anyone guess! The newly introduced keyboard for the iPad, though, might be a first example.

 

 

No doubt.  But they will have serious competition - whether from Android or from Windows/Continuum.  I'd bet on MSFT for the business market personally, definitely in software but even in hardware too.  I'm starting to see more and more Surfaces in meetings.

 

A purse is something women will always use… until a better product comes our way

 

 

I think that's the start of a very good definition for a commoditised product: everyone has one, and they all do much the same thing, so you choose based on personal preference and...price.

 

You have to be able to argue that Apple is like an LV purse, not just a purse.  And the whole psychological point about an LV purse is they are rare.  For that reason they send a different signal about who you are than a generic purse does. 

 

I think it's almost a law of human psychology that, since we all want to be different, something like the iPhone can't stay cool much past the point where it feels like everyone has one.  That's especially the case if the functions have become commoditised.  And if the company that makes it is perceived to be gouging price and making billions of dollars in profit, it's quite possible for a product to become seriously uncool.  I've no idea how to discount that.

 

The counter-argument is that once you've bought the apps and created data and stored that on the cloud, you're kinda locked in to that provider.  But only kinda!

 

Disclosure: Apple doesn't get past the first screen for me (it fails because I can't predict consumer psychology).  The only tech company I have is MSFT which I think is in a great position in a much more predictable market.

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But what if your new purse is so good, that you can now use it for 3 years instead of 2? Revenues will decline by 30% and profits by 50%.

This happened to PCs and tablets (even iPads), so its not a question of if it happens but when. Its no wonder that Apple now wants its customers to use the one year leasing option. The stock will only be a good investment when the majority of customers will decide to use that in the future.

 

Well I think of it as a mix of brand awareness and actual usefulness: as I have said, I still think smartphones could be improved in many ways for a very long time… will this end sooner or later? Who knows? Technology has the habit of surprising us over and over again, right?

 

Then, of course, there is the “latest fashion effect”: as I have said, women don’t buy a LV purse because they “need” it, or because it could perform wonders if compared to the one they already have… LV every year comes out with new models, which cost much more than an iPhone… And sells them!... Simply because we feel better owning and carrying around the new gadgets instead of the old.

 

Imo it is the combo of the two that really matters… Add to it the so-called Apple “ecosystem”, all those other things you can enjoy if you own an iPhone, and imo Apple’s growth story might still go on for many years into the future.

 

Finally, today we really have the luxury to take results as they come, because Apple is priced as a company that won’t grow… Therefore, if I am wrong, hopefully I won’t lose much money!

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

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And the whole psychological point about an LV purse is they are rare.  For that reason they send a different signal about who you are than a generic purse does. 

 

I think it's almost a law of human psychology that, since we all want to be different, something like the iPhone can't stay cool much past the point where it feels like everyone has one.  That's especially the case if the functions have become commoditised.  And if the company that makes it is perceived to be gouging price and making billions of dollars in profit, it's quite possible for a product to become seriously uncool

 

Well, if and when the iPhone gets to be uncool, I certainly would admit I was wrong and sell my investment. But I don’t think a product should be “rare” to be perceived as cool… A product that is necessary, is always carried around, and which has no real competition might be perceived as cool almost by default… The iPhone imo is such a product.

Brand awareness, anyway, as I have said, is only part of the thesis: technological improvements that might go on for still a very long time, the so-called Apple’s ecosystem, and a low stock price are the other parts.

The whole thesis is what matters imo, because it raises the predictability of at least satisfactory results very much.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

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Well, if and when the iPhone gets to be uncool, I certainly would admit I was wrong and sell my investment. But I don’t think a product should be “rare” to be perceived as cool… A product that is necessary, is always carried around, and which has no real competition might be perceived as cool almost by default… The iPhone imo is such a product.

 

If it has no real competition then you are right.  I fine it very hard to get comfortable with this, although I can see the arguments for it.

 

I'd be very careful with the increasing utility argument though.  Almost everything we buy today does a better job than its ancestors, but that hasn't translated to pricing power.  Cars, computers, TVs...  For me the argument has to be centred exclusively on the willingness of the customer to pay a huge gross margin because either they can't go anywhere else, or they don't want to for psychological reasons related to the message that owning and iPhone sends about who you are.

 

I fully accept the low multiple argument but I find it hard to hang my hat on given that it is so dependant on being right on one product.

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Well, if and when the iPhone gets to be uncool, I certainly would admit I was wrong and sell my investment. But I don’t think a product should be “rare” to be perceived as cool… A product that is necessary, is always carried around, and which has no real competition might be perceived as cool almost by default… The iPhone imo is such a product.

 

If it has no real competition then you are right.  I fine it very hard to get comfortable with this, although I can see the arguments for it.

 

I'd be very careful with the increasing utility argument though.  Almost everything we buy today does a better job than its ancestors, but that hasn't translated to pricing power.  Cars, computers, TVs...  For me the argument has to be centred exclusively on the willingness of the customer to pay a huge gross margin because either they can't go anywhere else, or they don't want to for psychological reasons related to the message that owning and iPhone sends about who you are.

 

I fully accept the low multiple argument but I find it hard to hang my hat on given that it is so dependant on being right on one product.

 

 

 

Well, if and when the iPhone gets to be uncool, I certainly would admit I was wrong and sell my investment. But I don’t think a product should be “rare” to be perceived as cool… A product that is necessary, is always carried around, and which has no real competition might be perceived as cool almost by default… The iPhone imo is such a product.

 

If it has no real competition then you are right.  I fine it very hard to get comfortable with this, although I can see the arguments for it.

 

I'd be very careful with the increasing utility argument though.  Almost everything we buy today does a better job than its ancestors, but that hasn't translated to pricing power.  Cars, computers, TVs...  For me the argument has to be centred exclusively on the willingness of the customer to pay a huge gross margin because either they can't go anywhere else, or they don't want to for psychological reasons related to the message that owning and iPhone sends about who you are.

 

I fully accept the low multiple argument but I find it hard to hang my hat on given that it is so dependant on being right on one product.

 

I think what you're saying is why the stock price is so low. Cars, computers, TVs are commoditized -- phones aren't, and I think that makes people say "yet".

 

But there are structural issues that make competing with Apple on the hardware head-to-head difficult. One, b/c non-iphones are commoditized, it makes it extremely difficult to compete without deep pockets b/c the development costs to match or exceed a product like Apple's are enormous.

 

Also, at this point, Apple is an extremely powerful buyer (I had a good article on this but I can't seem to find it). One of the major effects of this is that they design their own chips, and are a able to stay a couple of years ahead of competitors in terms of things like power efficiency and integration with software.

 

Other players have definitely entered the market and largely, failed an excited. Outside of the lower cost Chinese manufacturers (Huwei, etc) Google, Amazon, & Facebook all entered and then exited the hardware market (although Google obviously still makes software). Microsoft hasn't gotten traction on the High end. Samsung isn't doing well right now at the high end, either. I guess this begs the question, what would it take to compete with Apple on the high end? How much money?

 

On the low end, their is definitely competition, but again, commoditization impairs the ability of an entrant to make enough move up to the high end where the profits are.

 

That leaves two bear case: disruption and "good enough"

 

Disruption is rare and difficult. Its still a possibility, but Apple, for example is still making money selling personal computers 40 years later.

 

"Good enough" is inconsistent with really, any sector of the consumer economy. The list of companies selling non-priced differentiated consumer goods at high margins is pretty big. Nike, BMW, P&G, Whole Foods, Under Armor, any media company, etc.  Also, Nike makes good stuff! It's much nicer than off brand at Walmart and a lot of people will buy that. Not everyone will, which is also fine. I think value guys don't like to pay up for stuff

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Fast hardware, nice specs, magnesium alloy body, ... but one glaring fatal flaw that Microsoft is helpless to do anything about...  It runs Windows.

 

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