AAPL - Apple Inc.

[tengen]

Looks like the touch bar is popular.

 

http://www.macrumors.com/2016/11/09/new-macbook-pro-has-outsold-all-competitors/

 

Can Apple add a touch bar to the iMac? I can't see them adding it to the keyboard so, if they are indeed working on it, we might see quite a different looking iMac in the near future.

[DCG]

AAPL is selling off over concerns of Trump changing tax laws to hurt companies like Apple, but I was in a mall over the weekend and the Apple Store was packed.

 

 

One strange thing to me about the Apple Store is how little focus they have on the Apple Watch. 95% of the store is showcasing iPhones and Macs. There was a small glass case that had Apple Watches. They were all enclosed in glass. I didn't see any watches in the store you could actually try out. I don't really understand this.

[DooDiligence]

AAPL is selling off over concerns of Trump changing tax laws to hurt companies like Apple, but I was in a mall over the weekend and the Apple Store was packed.

 

One strange thing to me about the Apple Store is how little focus they have on the Apple Watch. 95% of the store is showcasing iPhones and Macs. There was a small glass case that had Apple Watches. They were all enclosed in glass. I didn't see any watches in the store you could actually try out. I don't really understand this.

 

Do you know what % of phone sales come out of fashion outlets like Kohl's & Macy's as opposed to Apple stores & BestBuy?

 

Do Trump staffers still use iPhones? (won't bear on my investment; just curious...)

[DeepSouth]

I'd say AAPL is selling off on a general rotation from tech and yield plays to cyclicals.

[Liberty]

All the FANG stocks are selling, possibly partly on Druckenmiller's comments today.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/10/druckenmiller-making-large-bet-on-economic-growth-on-trump-win-sells-gold.html

 

Repatriation tax deal would be hugely beneficial to Apple and other big tech cos.

[brendanb22]

Ideally if AAPL is going to repatriate, hopefully trump would offer some sort of tax deal to incentivize them to so he could boast about all of the cash and jobs coming back to America. Hopefully they will then reinvest the cash at a higher return than it generates sitting on their b/s. Ultimately, I see this as a potential positive

[TheAiGuy]

Ideally if AAPL is going to repatriate, hopefully trump would offer some sort of tax deal to incentivize them to so he could boast about all of the cash and jobs coming back to America. Hopefully they will then reinvest the cash at a higher return than it generates sitting on their b/s. Ultimately, I see this as a potential positive

 

This is a very poor analysis of this company. Apple will not change its capital expenditures or expansion plans due to repatriation. It is cash rich and are not too shy to spend a massive amount on CapEx and R&D. In the event of a tax change that allows it to repatriate cash cheaply, whatever money they decide they do not want to keep on the balance sheet will be returned to share holders. That would be positive for the stock, for sure.

[portfolio14]

AAPL is selling off over concerns of Trump changing tax laws to hurt companies like Apple, but I was in a mall over the weekend and the Apple Store was packed.

 

One strange thing to me about the Apple Store is how little focus they have on the Apple Watch. 95% of the store is showcasing iPhones and Macs. There was a small glass case that had Apple Watches. They were all enclosed in glass. I didn't see any watches in the store you could actually try out. I don't really understand this.

 

AppleStore is ALWAYS packed in Australia. In the shop I visited last week, there was a single Watch display table (in comparison, iPhone probably had 2-3 tables) and there were constant enquiries and trial requests. There were always a couple of people trying the watches. So yeah, the volume is relatively low.

[Spekulatius]

Ideally if AAPL is going to repatriate, hopefully trump would offer some sort of tax deal to incentivize them to so he could boast about all of the cash and jobs coming back to America. Hopefully they will then reinvest the cash at a higher return than it generates sitting on their b/s. Ultimately, I see this as a potential positive

 

This is a very poor analysis of this company. Apple will not change its capital expenditures or expansion plans due to repatriation. It is cash rich and are not too shy to spend a massive amount on CapEx and R&D. In the event of a tax change that allows it to repatriate cash cheaply, whatever money they decide they do not want to keep on the balance sheet will be returned to share holders. That would be positive for the stock, for sure.

Good for the stock, but it won't create even one job in the USA. I actually think that if Trump is serious about going after China, AAPL would be seriously hurt, since they build their phones there and also sell  a substantial amount of their products there as well.

[TheAiGuy]

Ideally if AAPL is going to repatriate, hopefully trump would offer some sort of tax deal to incentivize them to so he could boast about all of the cash and jobs coming back to America. Hopefully they will then reinvest the cash at a higher return than it generates sitting on their b/s. Ultimately, I see this as a potential positive

 

This is a very poor analysis of this company. Apple will not change its capital expenditures or expansion plans due to repatriation. It is cash rich and are not too shy to spend a massive amount on CapEx and R&D. In the event of a tax change that allows it to repatriate cash cheaply, whatever money they decide they do not want to keep on the balance sheet will be returned to share holders. That would be positive for the stock, for sure.

Good for the stock, but it won't create even one job in the USA. I actually think that if Trump is serious about going after China, AAPL would be seriously hurt, since they build their phones there and also sell  a substantial amount of their products there as well.

 

To clarify, I'm not making a prediction about future policy impact on Apple. It is hard to see what will happen. It is pretty straightforward to predict Apple's behavior conditional on a change in repatriation tax policy, exclusive of everything else -- but that's a statement of the company's position and management priorities, not public policy.

 

Who the fuck knows what Trump will do and how that will effect things like trade? I think it is safe to say there are political risks here that cut both ways and I think that it's also safe to say that I don't know what will happen.

[DooDiligence]

Who the fuck knows what Trump will do and how that will effect things like trade? I think it is safe to say there are political risks here that cut both ways and I think that it's also safe to say that I don't know what will happen.

 

Stepping back into your wheelhouse; do you have any thoughts on the upcoming 10th anniversary iPhone?

 

And -

 

I believe Apple should carve out a niche in the IOTHCD (health care devices) & would be interested in hearing your ideas (or a shout down if you think it's not a valid direction for them...)

 

And -

 

I'm looking at buying a new truck & so far have driven the Tacoma (crappy Scout Link nav & no CarPlay option) & the Colorado with CarPlay (nice total device integration but having to be wired is kinda 90's) (BTW the 4 cylinder Colorado was very responsive but the Tacoma was like driving an old, wet mule...)

 

Also looked at Ford (CarPlay available but sales rep knew nothing & nothing with CarPlay on the lot to look at) & Dodge (ditto on the uninformed sales rep & I didn't care enough to research whether it was an option) Nissan (ditto rubbish system & sales rep was a lump.)

 

All of the factory phone / app options were garbage in comparison to the CarPlay system I saw on the Chevy (does Apple not care about pushing this or is it the manufacturers / dealers?)

 

My impression is that this could very well end up like Apple TV.

 

Speculations on automotive?

[DCG]

Are any of you using Apple Music (since it was redesigned for iOS10)? How does it compare to Spotify?

[johnny]

The more evidence that emerges re: Apple's bizarre on-again-of-again "maybe we're competing with Netflix" garbage the more convinced I become that Eddie Cue is a bumbling idiot:

 

http://www.cultofmac.com/454304/apple-tried-sign-chris-rock-itunes-movie-deal/

 

Again, this is the sort of thing you either do seriously or don't do at all. This thing where Apple is just going to bankroll a small trickle of non-related projects sounds a lot less like a coherent strategy for accomplishing anything and more like Eddie Cue being a self-indulgent dilettante that has access to capital without being subjected to much in the way of performance metrics. Again, this is why the TV app, that they just launched to great fanfare, is dead on arrival: the best content providers don't want to cooperate with an Apple that they see as incessantly flirting with outright competition in the space.

[fareastwarriors]

The more evidence that emerges re: Apple's bizarre on-again-of-again "maybe we're competing with Netflix" garbage the more convinced I become that Eddie Cue is a bumbling idiot:

 

http://www.cultofmac.com/454304/apple-tried-sign-chris-rock-itunes-movie-deal/

 

Again, this is the sort of thing you either do seriously or don't do at all. This thing where Apple is just going to bankroll a small trickle of non-related projects sounds a lot less like a coherent strategy for accomplishing anything and more like Eddie Cue being a self-indulgent dilettante that has access to capital without being subjected to much in the way of performance metrics. Again, this is why the TV app, that they just launched to great fanfare, is dead on arrival: the best content providers don't want to cooperate with an Apple that they see as incessantly flirting with outright competition in the space.

 

:(

[nwoodman]

The more evidence that emerges re: Apple's bizarre on-again-of-again "maybe we're competing with Netflix" garbage the more convinced I become that Eddie Cue is a bumbling idiot:

 

http://www.cultofmac.com/454304/apple-tried-sign-chris-rock-itunes-movie-deal/

 

Again, this is the sort of thing you either do seriously or don't do at all. This thing where Apple is just going to bankroll a small trickle of non-related projects sounds a lot less like a coherent strategy for accomplishing anything and more like Eddie Cue being a self-indulgent dilettante that has access to capital without being subjected to much in the way of performance metrics. Again, this is why the TV app, that they just launched to great fanfare, is dead on arrival: the best content providers don't want to cooperate with an Apple that they see as incessantly flirting with outright competition in the space.

 

Nicely put!  I have also been questioning Eddie Cue's contribution to this tricky part of the business, mind you he is doing a far better job than I could :)

 

Totally agree that the absence of Netflix greatly diminishes the value of the TV app

 

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/10/05/apple-buying-netflix-would-be-a-waste-of-50b-says-bernstein/

 

cheers

 

nwoodman

[portfolio14]

How do you know these are not "pawn sacrificing" moves to nudge opponents into traps?

 

I'm not saying they are. I just don't know.

[DooDiligence]

How do you know these are not "pawn sacrificing" moves to nudge opponents into traps?

 

I'm not saying they are. I just don't know.

 

As much as I've enjoyed Michael Moore's poking & annoying various dbags, I don't believe the deal with him will do anything of value for Apple (maybe that's the pawn they need to sacrifice...)

 

They really should simply to stick to their knitting (hardware/chip & software/UI design) & either buy a content producer (at which point I'll probably sell all my shares) or get off the pot (I'm tired of listening to them grunt & strain in this space...)

[johnny]

How do you know these are not "pawn sacrificing" moves to nudge opponents into traps?

 

I'm not saying they are. I just don't know.

 

I lost a lot of money last year by thinking "Well this looks so blatantly stupid that there must be some higher level that they're operating on." I don't think that way anymore, especially when the person in question has nothing but a few "good luck" successes followed by a sustained run of mediocre outcomes.

 

To be more explicit:

 

Eddie Cue gets a ton of credit for simply being in the right place at the right time. His big "successes" were the original music label negotiations (13 years ago) and the original launch of the App Store (8 years ago). Neither of these had really anything to do with him uniquely: the label negotiations went well because the iPod was a blockbuster product AND the labels were scared to death about piracy. The App Store, similarly, blew up because the iPhone was a BLOCKBUSTER product and developers had no other plausible distribution channel for mobile apps.

 

In other words, Eddie Cue is a good negotiator when his counterparts have absolutely no other option available to them and are ready to have terms more or less dictated. Unfortunately, outside of that very special context, he seems to do nothing but faceplant.

 

Recall for example, the iBooks debacle (This was like 2009-2010). It's a rare acomplishment to launch a service that 1. fails to make a meaningful market share impact and 2. secures you a losing position in an antitrust suit. But that's the sort of magic Eddie brought to the table. I remember the discovery from the suit making the entire negotiations look, frankly, very embarrassing for Apple. Not embarrassing because they were doing something so obviously illegal, but because they seemed to be pretty god damn terrible at getting the deals done in the first place. You could say Steve took a more hands on role here, but ultimately "Steve did Eddie's job, not very well" is not very impressive either.

 

Of course, even the feathers in Eddie's cap (Music and App Store) have been seriously troubled in the past few years. The App Store has been the bane of developers' existence for years (and Eddie recently had it taken from him). Meanwhile, we recently spend $3 billion dollars to play catchup in Music and essentially hire Jimmy Iovine to do that job Eddie was supposed to be doing (negotiating with music labels).

 

Add to that this years multiple reports painting Eddie as an arrogant douchebag when negotiating with legacy content owners/distributers, and a picture begins to emerge.

 

I'm no grandmaster, but if you sacrifice 6 pawns in a row, you might just be a shitty chess player.

[rb]

I don't have much of an opinion on Eddie Cue nor do I think he's that consequential to Apple. But damn do I love Johnny's prose!

 

Props man! Keep it up.

[Oreo]

You guys are nailing it.

Eddy Cue is a significant reason for why I don't own Apple stock.

[DooDiligence]

Anyone think that healthcare might be a sleeper for Apple?

 

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/whats-up-with-apple-in-healthcare/429706/

 

On another subject; I bought a 2016 Chevy Colorado with the 8" color touchscreen & CarPlay (I really like it!)

 

Siri works well, phone calls & texting are a breeze & nav is great (no more map updates needed - yay!!!)

 

Oh & setup was stupid easy (Toyota & the others are producing garbage...)

[rb]

Anyone think that healthcare might be a sleeper for Apple?

 

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/whats-up-with-apple-in-healthcare/429706/

 

On another subject; I bought a 2016 Chevy Colorado with the 8" color touchscreen & CarPlay (I really like it!)

 

Siri works well, phone calls & texting are a breeze & nav is great (no more map updates needed - yay!!!)

 

Oh & setup was stupid easy (Toyota & the others are producing garbage...)

I just had dinner with a friend of mine, who made a really good point that in the future car systems would be obsolete/disappear. Where cars would just have an LCD that would port/display your phone.

 

He has a very good point. What's the benefit of having a car operating system/apps when all that stuff is already available on your phone. Also why should you have to put up with a system that the car manufacturer selects when you already know your phone and you obviously prefer it to another system that your car manufacturer selected?

[DooDiligence]

Anyone think that healthcare might be a sleeper for Apple?

 

http://www.healthcaredive.com/news/whats-up-with-apple-in-healthcare/429706/

 

On another subject; I bought a 2016 Chevy Colorado with the 8" color touchscreen & CarPlay (I really like it!)

 

Siri works well, phone calls & texting are a breeze & nav is great (no more map updates needed - yay!!!)

 

Oh & setup was stupid easy (Toyota & the others are producing garbage...)

I just had dinner with a friend of mine, who made a really good point that in the future car systems would be obsolete/disappear. Where cars would just have an LCD that would port/display your phone.

 

He has a very good point. What's the benefit of having a car operating system/apps when all that stuff is already available on your phone. Also why should you have to put up with a system that the car manufacturer selects when you already know your phone and you obviously prefer it to another system that your car manufacturer selected?

 

I agree completely on the benefits of BYODD (last D = driving) & would love to hear your thoughts as to why Toyota, etc., are seemingly so opposed to allowing this.

 

Are they still trying to decide how deep they want to allow iOS & Android in their center stacks?

 

Is Chevy analyzing data provided through OnStar about usage of the system (CarPlay vs OnStar?)

 

Are auto manufacturers still negotiating monetization with Apple & Google? (seems to me there'd be advertising opportunities & I'd be inclined to say Google & Apple could really work togeather to present this opportunity to managements...)

 

Are they simply determined to produce their own OS's? (poor showing so far...)

 

I enjoy thinking about this & would love to draw the right conclusions but I've got a few cognitive & research biases which may limit my outcomes (narrow noggin syndrome...)

[johnny]

Is it surprising that existing manufacturers aren't comfortable handing over the entire digital UX of their products to a company that, with some of its pocket billions, is actively and loudly investigating direct competition with them?

 

I'm sure there are data-access, revenue sharing disagreements, and all sorts of tactical stuff like that. But I'm also sure that at some high level they realize that they're really playing with fire when they allow anything more than maps-projection on their platforms.

 

For non-car people like me, an apple-quality Carplay setup (not grossly laggy, with comparably high-quality high-DPI screens, etc.) would be very close to a decision maker on which car to buy next. I think it is wise of car manufacturers to try and present a united front, because the first major defection here is going to create a lot of problems.

 

It is pretty embarrassing how incapable they've proven to be when it comes to making their own decent systems from scratch. This has been a known problem for a very long time.

[portfolio14]

I lost a lot of money last year by thinking "Well this looks so blatantly stupid that there must be some higher level that they're operating on." I don't think that way anymore, especially when the person in question has nothing but a few "good luck" successes followed by a sustained run of mediocre outcomes.

 

I guess it really depends on whether the investment thesis will completely collapse if the assumption is wrong. If the downside is protected by something else, you have the luxury to allow for some uncertainty here and there.

 

To be more explicit: Eddie Cue gets a ton of credit for simply being in the right place at the right time.....I'm no grandmaster, but if you sacrifice 6 pawns in a row, you might just be a shitty chess player.

 

Very good post, johnny. Hard to argue with your logic.