Jump to content

AAPL - Apple Inc.


indirect

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Guest roark33

What's funny is since Palihapitiya pitched Amazon last year at Sohn, Amazon is up 40% vs. Apple (which he poo-pooed), which is up 67%.

 

So much for efficient markets. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just dropping in to point something out:

 

I've always considered the most important/relevant metric for iPhone performance to be the rolling 24 month units figure, since the tick-tock release schedule became an obvious analysis challenge with iPhone 6. This metric has served me pretty well, especially last year when people were despondent about the YoY drops, but the T24M figure showed still healthy improvement.

 

This is the first quarter where that number dropped, ever. This is obviously not a catastrophe for the business, and it's only a modest drop, and we all know that the performance of the iPhone 7, given the lack of a substantial cosmetic overhaul, is still pretty good. But it's still the first time the number has dropped. So, maybe we're about to go into another supercycle and everything will still look great in a year, but it is clear we're starting to bang on the ceiling for iPhone growth

 

I'll also point out that, by my (pretty conservative) reckoning of the pseudo-EV of Apple, the valuation of the company has more than doubled in the past year (I have it at 7x last May, and 14.4x today). I only mention this to remark on how weird this market is. Nothing about Apple today should make it seem like its future is brighter than last year; by almost every measure I'd say it's less well positioned, advantaged by a smaller margin (in the areas where it leads), lagging by a larger margin (in the areas where it falls behind), with a few more flops to and missed opportunities to give investors pause.

 

On the bright side, I think Apple/Berkshire combined are creating a pretty strong impression of a price floor for the stock, so I don't think anybody holding shares today has to worry about the sort of insane valuation decapitation that happened back in 2013. But it's just no longer the sort of screaming "obvious" buy that it has been for so long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Not an original thought, but Apple tends to succeed with products that are taken out of the home and visible (iPhone, Airpods, Watch, iPod, Macbooks) and tends to succeed much less with products that primarily stay hidden in home (Airport, Apple TV, Desktops, iPads, Printers).

 

It's hard to see how they can succeed with a merely feature-competitive Echo-like device, since they're almost certainly going to come in at a much higher price (2x, 3x) than Amazon, while starting way behind on integrations.

 

As a related note, they have not exactly showered themselves with glory in terms of figuring out new interaction paradigms for their recent products (The killer feature of Watch will be....APPS! The killer feature of Apple TV will be....APPS!). If they try to take the same sort of swing at the ball with their Echo device, I suspect they'll faceplant.

 

Given how severely limited Siri and Homekit are, and what a pain it is to create a compliant product/service, I don't see how they get to an Echo-killer without doing some pretty big shakeup in those teams.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why can't the Apple TV device be the interactive interface?

 

A separate device seems stupid, especially if it's all about the services & not the hardware...

 

The standalone device can be placed anywhere, on a shelf or a kitchen counter, not just near a TV.  Amazon and Google both created a standalone device rather than just adding the functionality to their TV devices (FireTV, Chromecast).  It would be good to do both I think.  If you planned on putting the device in your living room, next to your TV anyway, then a TV device with this feature built in would work for you, but if you planned on putting it somewhere else then you would just go with the stand alone device.

 

I also have my doubts about the potential success of this.  It will be hard to compete with Amazon, and johnny's point above about Apple products having a fashion appeal to them is a good one.  People want to be seen with an iPhone or a Macbook, no one cares if you have an AppleTV box on your shelf or an Airport Extreme hidden somewhere.  The only play Apple has here is the integration.  A stand alone Siri device, Siri integrated into AppleTV, the iMac, Macbooks, and the iPhone.  It needs to make Siri better, more functional, capable, and "smart" than Alexa.  That is a tall order.  Right now Siri is almost useless.  I don't know if it is my New England Yankee accent or what, but everytime I try to use Siri for anything it misunderstands what I say to it, so I've stopped even trying to use it.  I can't even dictate text messages on my iPhone verbally.  It just never works. Apple has a long way to go in this area and it being a fashionless/hidden feature it needs to work as good or better than the competition.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why can't the Apple TV device be the interactive interface?

 

A separate device seems stupid, especially if it's all about the services & not the hardware...

 

The standalone device can be placed anywhere, on a shelf or a kitchen counter, not just near a TV.  Amazon and Google both created a standalone device rather than just adding the functionality to their TV devices (FireTV, Chromecast).  It would be good to do both I think.  If you planned on putting the device in your living room, next to your TV anyway, then a TV device with this feature built in would work for you, but if you planned on putting it somewhere else then you would just go with the stand alone device.

 

I also have my doubts about the potential success of this.  It will be hard to compete with Amazon, and johnny's point above about Apple products having a fashion appeal to them is a good one.  People want to be seen with an iPhone or a Macbook, no one cares if you have an AppleTV box on your shelf or an Airport Extreme hidden somewhere.  The only play Apple has here is the integration.  A stand alone Siri device, Siri integrated into AppleTV, the iMac, Macbooks, and the iPhone.  It needs to make Siri better, more functional, capable, and "smart" than Alexa.  That is a tall order.  Right now Siri is almost useless.  I don't know if it is my New England Yankee accent or what, but everytime I try to use Siri for anything it misunderstands what I say to it, so I've stopped even trying to use it.  I can't even dictate text messages on my iPhone verbally.  It just never works. Apple has a long way to go in this area and it being a fashionless/hidden feature it needs to work as good or better than the competition.

 

Yeah, it's sad but all I can do is dial contacts & add ToDo's / Events (nav search sucks out loud.)

 

On the fashion end, what about wearables, clothes, shoes, handbags, wallets, glasses or other hot accessories?

 

Does it have 2 b a box?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am playing this MMO (BnS) where you have various pets floating by your shoulder: otter, fox, penguin, etc. I think that would be a great embodiment of the personal assistant, hands-free device to use. Think about the convenience and the fashion aspect. You could have a panda or a puppy floating by your ear, telling you where to go, what ingredients to put into the dish you are cooking and even playing musac. Oh, the possibilities!

 

Apple, make it so.

 

 

8)

 

 

You heard it here first

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am playing this MMO (BnS) where you have various pets floating by your shoulder: otter, fox, penguin, etc. I think that would be a great embodiment of the personal assistant, hands-free device to use. Think about the convenience and the fashion aspect. You could have a panda or a puppy floating by your ear, telling you where to go, what ingredients to put into the dish you are cooking and even playing musac. Oh, the possibilities!

 

Apple, make it so.

 

 

8)

You heard it here first

 

Awesome.  I want a red devil with a horns, a long pointy tail, and a pitchfork sitting on my shoulder whispering in my ear.  Maybe my other shoulder contains an angel laying there dead with her throat cut.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am playing this MMO (BnS) where you have various pets floating by your shoulder: otter, fox, penguin, etc. I think that would be a great embodiment of the personal assistant, hands-free device to use. Think about the convenience and the fashion aspect. You could have a panda or a puppy floating by your ear, telling you where to go, what ingredients to put into the dish you are cooking and even playing musac. Oh, the possibilities!

 

Apple, make it so.

 

 

8)

 

 

You heard it here first

 

You must have read the Golden Compass - Pullman

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am playing this MMO (BnS) where you have various pets floating by your shoulder: otter, fox, penguin, etc. I think that would be a great embodiment of the personal assistant, hands-free device to use. Think about the convenience and the fashion aspect. You could have a panda or a puppy floating by your ear, telling you where to go, what ingredients to put into the dish you are cooking and even playing musac. Oh, the possibilities!

 

Apple, make it so.

 

 

8)

 

 

You heard it here first

 

You must have read the Golden Compass - Pullman

 

The first books I read that really showed the possibilities of a world with augmented reality was "Daemon" by Daniel Suarez and its sequel "FreedomTM".  Notice the title of the first book "Daemon", your mention of the Golden Compass reminded me of this immediately.  Augmented reality has nothing to do with the plot in these books, but they are set in a world where it was just something everyone in society has and uses the way we use smartphones today. Only with AR it is always there and always on, all the time, never put away in your pocket where you have to think to get it and use it.  I highly recommend those books.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

TV Content deal still not visible (isn't Iger helpful?)

 

It's the software stupid!

 

Once u up to 50g icloud, photos & vidis are more accessible (maps still sucks.)

 

It'll be nice 2 be able to do more with imsg than just drop confetti & stuff.

 

Swipe up to share is convenient & works well.

 

My Mac, iPad & phone all stay in sync & I feel safe.

 

You'd need 2 hear the Homepod speaker 2 judge (been a Bose customer 4 a long time.)

 

Smart article, Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am playing this MMO (BnS) where you have various pets floating by your shoulder: otter, fox, penguin, etc. I think that would be a great embodiment of the personal assistant, hands-free device to use. Think about the convenience and the fashion aspect. You could have a panda or a puppy floating by your ear, telling you where to go, what ingredients to put into the dish you are cooking and even playing musac. Oh, the possibilities!

 

Apple, make it so.

 

 

8)

 

 

You heard it here first

 

You must have read the Golden Compass - Pullman

 

The first books I read that really showed the possibilities of a world with augmented reality was "Daemon" by Daniel Suarez and its sequel "FreedomTM".  Notice the title of the first book "Daemon", your mention of the Golden Compass reminded me of this immediately.  Augmented reality has nothing to do with the plot in these books, but they are set in a world where it was just something everyone in society has and uses the way we use smartphones today. Only with AR it is always there and always on, all the time, never put away in your pocket where you have to think to get it and use it.  I highly recommend those books.

 

Just put it in my Amazon wish list (gotta remove some backlog 1st...)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am playing this MMO (BnS) where you have various pets floating by your shoulder: otter, fox, penguin, etc. I think that would be a great embodiment of the personal assistant, hands-free device to use. Think about the convenience and the fashion aspect. You could have a panda or a puppy floating by your ear, telling you where to go, what ingredients to put into the dish you are cooking and even playing musac. Oh, the possibilities!

 

Apple, make it so.

 

 

8)

 

 

You heard it here first

 

You must have read the Golden Compass - Pullman

 

The first books I read that really showed the possibilities of a world with augmented reality was "Daemon" by Daniel Suarez and its sequel "FreedomTM".  Notice the title of the first book "Daemon", your mention of the Golden Compass reminded me of this immediately.  Augmented reality has nothing to do with the plot in these books, but they are set in a world where it was just something everyone in society has and uses the way we use smartphones today. Only with AR it is always there and always on, all the time, never put away in your pocket where you have to think to get it and use it.  I highly recommend those books.

 

Just put it in my Amazon wish list (gotta remove some backlog 1st...)

 

I hear you.  I have well over 100 books on my to-read list currently.  You (or anyone else here) are welcome to send me a friend request on goodreads if you use it.  I'm always interested in seeing what others are reading.  My goodreads profile.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I'll fess up to being a bit of a fanboy and tech tragic but there is no denying the massive step change that AR Kit has delivered.  Talking to some of my web developer mates they are  really excited about this and are considering doing IOS apps purely to leverage AR Kit. It has basically razed other's IP while building a mini-moat for Apple.

 

To paraphrase the links below.  You have effectively handed developers the tools AND hardware for AR in one hit.  The cost to play is effectively zero with massive upside for them to unleash their creative spirits. Sure the the AR interface right now in terms of the iPhone is not as elegant as it could be but all round it is still an exceptional value proposition. Difficult to imagine Apple not delivering  on a more elegant AR solution down the track. In the mean time millions of developers have been beta testing the tech using iPhones as the interface. 

 

"Apple just built the AR industry’s shovel. Now all you have to do is decide where to dig".

https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/19/apple-just-created-and-killed-a-generation-of-ar-businesses/

 

Developers with the tech after release at WWDC17 5th June 2017

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2017/06/21/arkit-examples/

 

TWIT discussion

 

cheers

nwoodman

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...