Jump to content

AAPL - Apple Inc.


indirect

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Guest valueInv

Apple still has some uses for its cash:

- Ensuring production capacity- http://www.asymco.com/2011/01/23/the-bank-of-apple-using-capital-to-ensure-additional-capacity-and-supply/

- Acquisitions

- They built one of the largest data centers in the world in North Carolina. Possibly need additional capex

- There are a number of lawsuits pending that may require large payments 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great discussion.

 

NYU professor Damodaran recently posted his thought on the topic. I copied and pasted his conclusion below, but to find out his (very well thought-out, IMHO) reasoning, do read the full article:

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2011/01/buybacks-and-stock-prices.html

 

... here is what I would expect to see in response to a stock buyback:

 

  • The most positive impact on stock prices should be at mature firms that have a history of earning poor returns on operating assets and are under levered. You get a triple whammy at these firms: the market probably is discounting cash at these firms because it does not trust the management, the firm is under levered and there is little likelihood of the buyback being viewed as a negative signal (since expectations for growth were low to begin with).
     
  • The most negative impact on stock prices will be at high growth firms with a history of generating high returns on operating assets and little debt capacity. Cash at these firms is unlikely to be discounted (and may be even be viewed as a strategic asset), there is little potential for value gain from financial leverage and the buyback is more likely to be viewed as a negative signal about future growth potential.
     

In my earlier post on Apple, this is why I argued against a buyback. Apple meets two of the three criteria for the second group: superb returns on operating assets and perceptions that there is still growth potential. It is true that Apple has some debt capacity (though its effect on value is muted). The debate about whether and when Apple should use this debt capacity is a good one to have, but I think that the argument for using debt right now is weak. That will change, as the debt capacity continues to grow, and returns on operating assets weaken (as they inevitably will).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

Myth - to your point above - I would have gladly invested in BRK as a $30 million company (of course in hindsight) knowing that Buffett wouldn't do buybacks (into a shitty textile business) but instead to the best sources.

 

So the question of whether or not to own a stock isn't measured by the willingness of the buyback, but rather the capital allocation.  If a buyback is good (and I'll cave on this for now) b/c the stock is trading much below IV, so be it.  If the buyback is bad (like my company right now, like SHLD in the 100's, like GS in the 200's, like MSFT in the 30's, etc) then it is bad. 

 

I am not really saying this right but my point is I can own a stock and not want a buyback (BRK is best example and impossible to argue IMO).  And with tax deferred accounts, a dividend is great.  Fantastic and much better than a buyback.  And please, no more with the synthetic buyback comments...I will vomit on the spot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A side point - if Jobs never returns to Apple (draw your own conclusions) - what is your purchase price for AAPL?

 

I am going with $280, maybe $300.

 

Good weekend to all.  And let's go Flyers (best team in sports???)

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...

Very smart of AAPL if true:

 

http://alexblom.com/blog/2011/07/forget-acquisitions-apple-control-the-supply-lines/

 

Put simply, new components are not cheap. The upfront capital requirement to build manufacturing plans is huge, and the margins shrink so quickly as technology moves that manufacturers cannot raise capital. According to the anonymous responder, Apple pay a significant portion of the factory construction cost in exchange for exclusive rights to the output for a set period of time, and then for a discount once this period expires.

 

Not only does this allow Apple to come out with new components long before rivals, but these components are impossible to duplicate (think of how long Apple had the touch screen monopoly for).

 

By the time competitors catch up on component production, Apples lower cost period is in play. That means that every time a competitor buys a component, they are potentially overpaying so that the factory can subsidize Apples discount.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest valueInv

This was a quarter where they had supply constraints due to Japan.

And delays in launching the iPhone 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And of course, the stock sells off in after hours trading!  Cheers!

 

It went us to $405 US before pulling back a bit. Trading was halted around the time of the earnings release (it was down a bit after hours before being haulted) but has been up since trading resumed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it was down $27 on Yahoo Finance after the report, but now it's up $20.  Cheers!

 

Yahoo Finance is buggy. I trust Google Finance much more.

 

I like the "key statistics" page on Yahoo finance, but for everything else I prefer Google Finance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it was down $27 on Yahoo Finance after the report, but now it's up $20.  Cheers!

 

Yahoo Finance is buggy. I trust Google Finance much more.

 

I like the "key statistics" page on Yahoo finance, but for everything else I prefer Google Finance.

 

Agreed. If it weren't for the Key Statistics page I'd never check Yahoo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, if you take away ipad supply constraints and add in back-to-school sales, holiday sales, refreshed mac mini/macbook/mac airs, cloud computing, Lion, and the release of iPhone 5...the next 2 quarters have the potential to be kinda nuts.  If you just take this quarters earnings, multiply it by 4, and subtract the cash off the balance sheet apple appears pretty cheap even if sales "just" remain flat in the future. It seems like the only product they are selling less of is the iPod.

 

I would sure like to see international sales broken out by countries.  It seems like they are still barely scratching the surface in some areas like China, India, etc.  I live in Argentina, and the iphone4 has been sold out for months, you cant get an ipad2. Apparently it is the same in Brazil. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...