rkbabang Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great minds think alike. http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4807452257944024&pid=1.7 That's just what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Apple May Be ‘Dirt Cheap’ But It Can Get Even Cheaper 2013-01-24 CNBC Apple trades at a forward price-earnings ratio (minus cash) of an astounding seven, according to Goldman Sachs. And revenue will increase a whopping 17 percent this year, estimates the firm. What's more, the stock sports a dividend yield of nearly three percent. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100405496?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 what? the div yield is 2.3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i am nibbling a little as well, very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 They haven't charged less in the case of the iPhone. They paid a much higher price to their suppliers as there was a lot of new products for the quarter and the suppliers are still going thru the learning curve process. I expect a good chunk of those margin compression to be temporary as you can see with the iPhone average selling price. Then why hasn't revenue growth matched growth in units sold? Why don't you look at the numbers and then we can discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Paying more for components would raise COGS, how would it hurt Revenues? That's right. That's why gross margins were 38,6% instead of 44,7% in the comparable quarter last year. The question is: Is margin compression permanent or not? I think most of the margin compression we noticed for the iPhone is temporary based on the fact that average selling prices were stable for the past 9 months and that the iPhone 5 was a new product. The other part is the iPad. Most of the Margin compression with the iPad is probably permanent as the iPad Mini is a lower margin product bur over the long run, I think they'll end up generating more volume growth than what they'll lose on gross profits. . ASPs have been stable for the last 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Then why hasn't revenue growth matched growth in units sold? Why don't you look at the numbers and then we can discuss. I have looked at the numbers, so ready when you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great minds think alike. http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4807452257944024&pid=1.7 That's just what I was thinking. Clever girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great minds think alike. http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4807452257944024&pid=1.7 That's just what I was thinking. Clever girl. Huh? Does this mean you are about to be eaten by a raptor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Then why hasn't revenue growth matched growth in units sold? Why don't you look at the numbers and then we can discuss. I have looked at the numbers, so ready when you are. iPhones ASP of iPhones fell 0.9%. Given that they had huge manufacturing problems, I'm surprised it has held up that well. Both revenues and units grew almost 30% despite shipping problems and a 1 week less in the quarter. Given that they had manufacturing problems and they cut chips orders by half, it is likely they had serious yield issues. That explains the margins. BTW, they are still short of iPhone 4 to this day. iPads The revenue growth dropped significantly due to the mix of the mini. This is not surprising at all. I've said before that the mini is going to be the mainstream iPad. The current iPad will have to evolve to something like a hybrid or be EOLed. Macs They shipped very late in the quarter. There is still a 3-4 week delay meaning manufacturing problems. There is also a secular decline in Macs. Pretty crazy for them not to be able to ship desktops quickly enough when people are shifting to tablets. Bottom line - The iPhone is chugging along fine. Something big going on in Apple's manufacturing lines causing problems. I know they are switching away from Samsung. Could be something more than this. The forecast for next quarter is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great minds think alike. http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4807452257944024&pid=1.7 That's just what I was thinking. Clever girl. Huh? Does this mean you are about to be eaten by a raptor? hahahahaha. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Regarding earnings, here are some rational thoughts: http://techpinions.com/miscellaneous-musings-on-apples-earnings-and-the-future-of-personal-computing/13881 Here is a second article by the same guy on tablets written last July... looks like he nailed it. Must make MSFT wet their bed: http://techpinions.com/the-pc-is-the-titanic-and-the-tablet-is-the-iceberg-any-questions/7806 What cracks me up is the i-pad mini will soon be the top selling tablet/computer of all time. Apple has, once again, hit a bulls eye. And this is somehow a bad thing because of what it does to corporate GM average for a couple of quarters? If anyone has come accross what they consider to be well written analysis of Apple please post the link (good or bad). Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 iPhones ASP of iPhones fell 0.9%. Given that they had huge manufacturing problems, I'm surprised it has held up that well. Both revenues and units grew almost 30% despite shipping problems and a 1 week less in the quarter. Given that they had manufacturing problems and they cut chips orders by half, it is likely they had serious yield issues. That explains the margins. BTW, they are still short of iPhone 4 to this day. I thought the suppliers would eat the yield cost? That's certainly what happened when Cirrus had yield issues. Perhaps you are talking about Apple's own custom chips, rather than a supplier to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Apple in China: still on a tear http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/01/24/apple-in-china-still-on-a-tear/#axzz2IsUfVpfg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Regarding earnings, here are some rational thoughts: http://techpinions.com/miscellaneous-musings-on-apples-earnings-and-the-future-of-personal-computing/13881 Apple generated more revenue in one quarter than Google did in all of 2012. noticed this last night as well. AAPL is currently selling for less than twice the market cap of Google (not even taking into account that about a 3rd of their market cap is in cash), yet is 4x as profitable than Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Then why hasn't revenue growth matched growth in units sold? Why don't you look at the numbers and then we can discuss. I have looked at the numbers, so ready when you are. iPhones ASP of iPhones fell 0.9%. Given that they had huge manufacturing problems, I'm surprised it has held up that well. Both revenues and units grew almost 30% despite shipping problems and a 1 week less in the quarter. Given that they had manufacturing problems and they cut chips orders by half, it is likely they had serious yield issues. That explains the margins. BTW, they are still short of iPhone 4 to this day. iPads The revenue growth dropped significantly due to the mix of the mini. This is not surprising at all. I've said before that the mini is going to be the mainstream iPad. The current iPad will have to evolve to something like a hybrid or be EOLed. Macs They shipped very late in the quarter. There is still a 3-4 week delay meaning manufacturing problems. There is also a secular decline in Macs. Pretty crazy for them not to be able to ship desktops quickly enough when people are shifting to tablets. Bottom line - The iPhone is chugging along fine. Something big going on in Apple's manufacturing lines causing problems. I know they are switching away from Samsung. Could be something more than this. The forecast for next quarter is concerning. This is the irony, isn't it? Both you and the markets are now concerned about the next quarter, while some of us are finally oblivious it to it after the stock has fallen 35%! The nibble is slowly turning into a bite in after hours. I hope over the next week this turns into a complete meal like Dell was a few months ago. Better company, better balance sheet, better brand, greater stickiness of products...I hope it plummets! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RIMM soaring, AAPL crashing -who would have predicted this just a few weeks ago. Short term anything can happen. Don t own any AAPL stock (sold it when it was $70-how smart am I) but own and have bought a lot of their products over the last 10 years + have been willing to pay up for their products. I suspect that this will continue in the future FWIW. I think AAPL will do fine. Expectations just need to be adjusted. Agree that price seems to be irrational- could they just not have any growth, just maintain current profit/market share and just buyback their stock at 7x earnings with their free cash flow-that would result in decent return. (Of course you never know what management will do-maybe they will do something dumb- but with current price I think you have some safety built in.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 RIMM soaring, AAPL crashing -who would have predicted this just a few weeks ago. Short term anything can happen. Don t own any AAPL stock (sold it when it was $70-how smart am I) but own and have bought a lot of their products over the last 10 years + have been willing to pay up for their products. I suspect that this will continue in the future FWIW. I think AAPL will do fine. Expectations just need to be adjusted. Agree that price seems to be irrational- could they just not have any growth, just maintain current profit/market share and just buyback their stock at 7x earnings with their free cash flow-that would result in decent return. (Of course you never know what management will do-maybe they will do something dumb- but with current price I think you have some safety built in.) when you can essentially buy back a 3rd of your outstanding shares with cash on hand, I'd say that's a pretty decent margin of safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This sounds downright insane: http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-on-425-apple-2013-1 Apple could hit $300. OK, it could. But unless Tim Cook lights their cash on fire and earnings go down 10%-20% and stay there in perpetuity, Gundlach's price targets are becoming much harder to believe. What do I know. Watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Agree that price seems to be irrational- could they just not have any growth, just maintain current profit/market share and just buyback their stock at 7x earnings with their free cash flow-that would result in decent return. (Of course you never know what management will do-maybe they will do something dumb- but with current price I think you have some safety built in.) Hi Bill, That's what they need to do. They can pay the current dividend and still buy back $20B plus a year in stock. They could still double their R&D spend and do all of that. Google and Apple will battle it out for years now. They will integrate their products into everything we do. Once they have you locked up in their system, it will be tough for people to want to switch out unless there is another game-changing product. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This sounds downright insane: http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-on-425-apple-2013-1 Apple could hit $300. OK, it could. But unless Tim Cook lights their cash on fire and earnings go down 10%-20% and stay there in perpetuity, Gundlach's price targets are becoming much harder to believe. What do I know. Watching... Great! I couldn't be happier if it does hit $300. I think Apple could retire a crapload of shares too at that point. ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Added to my position after hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The thing I see with AAPL is not just that it looks cheap. The switching cost is really getting higher and higher. One compare to sony, but to switch from apple you would have to move your contacts, music, apps and all the speaker, lamp accessaries that has AAPL connector built in (even though they changed the connector which I think was a bad move but they have exclusive on the adaptor from new connector to old). Sony never had so many switching cost built in. The moat is not invincible but it should give them one generation of upgrade compare to the competitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If you priced Apple at the same level as Google's current multiple backing out cash after all current liabilities and debt are paid, Apple would trade at $850-900 a share. But Google is trading at a somewhat lofty multiple! So reduce Apple's multiple after backing out cash to 12-15 times. That would give you a share price of somewhere between $650-750. Where it was before the current correction. The market assumed that Apple would grow at 25% plus a year for the next ten years. Now they think Apple is going to grow at less than 5% a year for the next ten years. The truth lies somewhere in the middle! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Then why hasn't revenue growth matched growth in units sold? Why don't you look at the numbers and then we can discuss. I have looked at the numbers, so ready when you are. iPhones ASP of iPhones fell 0.9%. Given that they had huge manufacturing problems, I'm surprised it has held up that well. Both revenues and units grew almost 30% despite shipping problems and a 1 week less in the quarter. Given that they had manufacturing problems and they cut chips orders by half, it is likely they had serious yield issues. That explains the margins. BTW, they are still short of iPhone 4 to this day. iPads The revenue growth dropped significantly due to the mix of the mini. This is not surprising at all. I've said before that the mini is going to be the mainstream iPad. The current iPad will have to evolve to something like a hybrid or be EOLed. Macs They shipped very late in the quarter. There is still a 3-4 week delay meaning manufacturing problems. There is also a secular decline in Macs. Pretty crazy for them not to be able to ship desktops quickly enough when people are shifting to tablets. Bottom line - The iPhone is chugging along fine. Something big going on in Apple's manufacturing lines causing problems. I know they are switching away from Samsung. Could be something more than this. The forecast for next quarter is concerning. This is the irony, isn't it? Both you and the markets are now concerned about the next quarter, while some of us are finally oblivious it to it after the stock has fallen 35%! The nibble is slowly turning into a bite in after hours. I hope over the next week this turns into a complete meal like Dell was a few months ago. Better company, better balance sheet, better brand, greater stickiness of products...I hope it plummets! Cheers! Amen. I didn't buy today as I think it will fall further. Next quarter is probably not going to be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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