Guest valueInv Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yup, I would be happy with any buybacks below $500...and would not complain if they were still buying shares up to $550. I don't want a special dividend. The company SHOULD NOT issue a special dividend if they want long-term shareholders. The preferreds is not a bad idea, but not necessary...just buyback shares below $550, and then issue the equivalent of an increasing dividend annually. The company has enough cash coming in to foster continued innovation even after paying a very large annual dividend. They should speed up the buybacks with the cash within the company until it gets to about $550. Cheers! Why $550? What happens over that level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yup, I would be happy with any buybacks below $500...and would not complain if they were still buying shares up to $550. I don't want a special dividend. The company SHOULD NOT issue a special dividend if they want long-term shareholders. The preferreds is not a bad idea, but not necessary...just buyback shares below $550, and then issue the equivalent of an increasing dividend annually. The company has enough cash coming in to foster continued innovation even after paying a very large annual dividend. They should speed up the buybacks with the cash within the company until it gets to about $550. Cheers! Why $550? What happens over that level? I think the net benefit of buying over that price, as far as it being accretive to cash flows and earnings, may not be worth it...they would be better off issuing a larger dividend at that point. It's arbitrary based on what type of return you are expecting. At above $550, the return from buying back shares, versus alternatives...dividends, other investments, acquisitions, etc...is less distinct. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 not sure if it was posted, but here's Einhorn's presentationAAPL_20130222_EinhornPresentation.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Don't agree with it, but presentation is hilarious. We have developed a brand new capital markets product that offers Apple a chance to creatively maximize value for shareholders while at the same time hold on to its cash to pursue its existing business strategy. In addition, Apple can capture a new demographic that it currently doesn’t serve: investors looking for safe, recurring income. The product may seem complicated or uninteresting, but we are going to show you how simple and exciting it is. Here is the product that Apple doesn’t yet know it needs… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How much would it cost Apple to buy the rights to use the term "iShares"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 My sentiments exactly: http://gigaom.com/2013/02/25/apple-in-india-a-lost-opportunity/ I've spent a lot of time in Asia the last few months and I am seeing the same things. I think Apple could do a lot to tap the potential of higher end segments in emerging markets even without releasing a lower-end phone. That said, I think Apple should release a mid-range phone at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Heh, here's another one I absolutely agree with: http://kensegall.com/2013/02/apple-battling-where-it-used-to-crush/ Apple's biggest problem is in the marketing. It is clearly being out-marketed and letting the narrative get away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 not sure if it was posted, but here's Einhorn's presentation Thanks. I like the thought experiment but much of the numbers seem to be just "random" enough to justify his investment case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I've made this point before - Apple should use its cash to provide financing for its products in price sensitive markets: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323699704578328043135138604.html Glad to see they are doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow..new 52-week low..trading at 6.5x earnings net of cash!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Growth investors are exiting (or shorting) this stock, and value investors are getting interested. With this much negative pressure, people who look at it like "Stock is worth far more than it is selling at, so we buy", are going to get burned. Discount to intrinsic value is not everything IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Discount to intrinsic value is not everything IMO. What? Not only is it everything, it is the only thing that makes rational sense as an investor. Anything outside of discount to intrinsic value or liquidation value is speculation. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Say that discount to intrinsic value keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the the discount to IV does not shrink in the near term? Furthermore, there may not be an obvious catalyst to return the price to the estimated intrinsic value (assuming an IV can even be estimated). *cough* Microsoft. Buying early will erode returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Say that discount to intrinsic value keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the the discount to IV does not shrink in the near term? Furthermore, there may not be an obvious catalyst to return the price to the estimated intrinsic value (assuming an IV can even be estimated). *cough* Microsoft. Buying early will erode returns. I don't know anyone who can time the bottom...not Prem, not Buffett, not Mohnish. If the discount to intrinsic value gets bigger and bigger, then your average purchase should get bigger and bigger as the price drops. It's the same thing that any intelligent investor would have done in 2008/2009. When the spring releases, the return will be far greater than the initial price you started buying at. We do that with all of our stocks. We just did that with Apple this morning again! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand what you're saying, but saying "discount to IV" is the ONLY thing also leads to disappointing investments like HPQ, Dell, and Loews. I'm sure a lot of value investors were buying Dell and HPQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This does look interesting to me but I got so burned on NOK that I am afraid. Another way to play this maybe buy GLRE if they go down again to 22. Rather own MSFT or NOV if the market goes down a bit more. My humble non informational opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm starting a small position if it ever gets to 300-320 billion market cap. Even without any known catalyst it will be just too cheap to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Say that discount to intrinsic value keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the the discount to IV does not shrink in the near term? Furthermore, there may not be an obvious catalyst to return the price to the estimated intrinsic value (assuming an IV can even be estimated). *cough* Microsoft. Buying early will erode returns. Your returns will be the same if you expect the stock to return to IV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand what you're saying, but saying "discount to IV" is the ONLY thing also leads to disappointing investments like HPQ, Dell, and Loews. I'm sure a lot of value investors were buying Dell and HPQ. Palantir, Apple's brand and loyal cult following is stratospheres above dell and HPQ. I would wait until the irrational selling stops and there is a bit of support then start a position. This is a classic low risk and high uncertainity bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Apple's brand and loyal cult following is stratospheres above dell and HPQ. I would wait until the irrational selling stops and there is a bit of support then start a position. ^This is what I have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand what you're saying, but saying "discount to IV" is the ONLY thing also leads to disappointing investments like HPQ, Dell, and Loews. I'm sure a lot of value investors were buying Dell and HPQ. I agree with this (although not really your previous posts). Boiling a company's value down to a single number is overly simplistic. If you can understand the range of possible future IVs, that is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What are the paths for Apple to grow? Other smart phones are gaining in popularity so can Apple replace lost iPhone sales or even grow sales despite competition. The hard part is everyone, their mother, and second cousin already has an iPhone. Who else is going to buy one. If Apple just maintains sales, 0 growth. What is it worth? How much is permanent cash on the balance sheet worth? I went to the Apple Store and played with some of their laptops. I have to admit they are really really nice. I'm just wondering how many really really nice cosumer electronics you have to sell to support a 400B market cap. I read a book about Exxon and read their last annual report. Exxon comes in and cuts deals with foreign governments right down to defense of their oil fields. Exxon is having a hard time with the laws of large numbers. Apple is not Exxon, not even close. I still struggle to think how much the best toy company in the world is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand what you're saying, but saying "discount to IV" is the ONLY thing also leads to disappointing investments like HPQ, Dell, and Loews. I'm sure a lot of value investors were buying Dell and HPQ. You have to continue to average in. Look at Prem and RIMM. If Prem didn't average in, RIMM would have been a bust. And if you believe your own analysis, your bets have to get bigger each time you buy as the price drops. You cannot predict the bottom, and when people say "wait till there is support", my eyes start rolling...sorry! ::) Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Initiated a %1 position today, probably add if it continues to go down. The valuation and pessimism is a point where I am finally comfortable dipping my toes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand what you're saying, but saying "discount to IV" is the ONLY thing also leads to disappointing investments like HPQ, Dell, and Loews. I'm sure a lot of value investors were buying Dell and HPQ. You have to continue to average in. Look at Prem and RIMM. If Prem didn't average in, RIMM would have been a bust. And if you believe your own analysis, your bets have to get bigger each time you buy as the price drops. You cannot predict the bottom, and when people say "wait till there is support", my eyes start rolling...sorry! ::) Cheers! youd be rolling your eyes at some of the greatest investors ever.. unfortunately i dont know how to determine whether a support has come in either. if management announces buybacks, that may provide a floor. unfortunately they seem to be asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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