VAL9000 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 A great synopsis of the competitive environment in mobile today. Applies to Google, Apple, and Samsung, but the article seems more centered around Apple so I'm posting it here: http://hypercritical.co/2013/03/19/self-reliance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Finally, someone did some market segmentation: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/will-there-be-more-than-one-new-iphone-this-summer-8jvQZ5miTMids1VG2d5kSw.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 My point about "narratives": http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-74981783/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. I suspect that's what people thought about the move from iPod to iPhone, but eventually iPhones made up far more of the revenue than iPods. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. I suspect that's what people thought about the move from iPod to iPhone, but eventually iPhones made up far more of the revenue than iPods. Cheers! Ok, lets see. How big is the watch market? What can they price their smartwatch at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. I suspect that's what people thought about the move from iPod to iPhone, but eventually iPhones made up far more of the revenue than iPods. Cheers! Ok, lets see. How big is the watch market? What can they price their smartwatch at? The smartphone market was tiny when the iPhone came out, but that changed. Not saying this will or won't happen with watches, but just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. I suspect that's what people thought about the move from iPod to iPhone, but eventually iPhones made up far more of the revenue than iPods. Cheers! Ok, lets see. How big is the watch market? What can they price their smartwatch at? You're thinking of it in terms of existing market. Of course the annual watch market is probably one tenth the size of the annual smartphone market. But the smartphone market only grew because of what the cell phone became capable of doing. What if your smartwatch actually unlocks your car and turns on the engine as you approach the door? What if your smartwatch turned on the lights in any room in your house as you walked into a specific room? What if Siri worked directly through your watch and you could make calls, listen to music, watch a program, check your schedule, and transcribe an email? What if you could make payments at credit/debit payment systems at retail shops? What if your smartwatch could check your vital statistics, monitor blood sugar levels, and even signal 911 if you've "fallen and can't get up?" What would you pay for that watch? How many of those watches would Apple sell? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. I suspect that's what people thought about the move from iPod to iPhone, but eventually iPhones made up far more of the revenue than iPods. Cheers! Ok, lets see. How big is the watch market? What can they price their smartwatch at? The smartphone market was tiny when the iPhone came out, but that changed. Not saying this will or won't happen with watches, but just pointing it out. I agree, but if you want to analyze Apple's prospects you have to start with existing markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've heard again and again about how increasing competition is going to cause pricing pressure and margin compression at Apple. Well, competition has increased but somehow I think Apple still has the upper hand ;): http://gigaom.com/2013/03/22/why-the-eu-is-unlikely-to-crack-down-on-apple-over-its-carrier-contracts/ It will. It's unavoidable in developed manufacturing businesses. That's why they are moving to watches where the margins are much higher. Whenever you start to produce a product, that has no long-term competitive advantage (KO's distribution system & brand, or Windows long-time monopoly), it will eventually become a commoditized business and margins will compress. They will still be as high, if not higher than their competition, but they will compress from past highs. Cheers! Long term advantages are not usually built overnight. And they're not moving to watches because margins are higher. The revenues from watches are going to be small and not make a significant difference to overall margins. I suspect that's what people thought about the move from iPod to iPhone, but eventually iPhones made up far more of the revenue than iPods. Cheers! Ok, lets see. How big is the watch market? What can they price their smartwatch at? You're thinking of it in terms of existing market. Of course the annual watch market is probably one tenth the size of the annual smartphone market. But the smartphone market only grew because of what the cell phone became capable of doing. What if your smartwatch actually unlocks your car and turns on the engine as you approach the door? What if your smartwatch turned on the lights in any room in your house as you walked into a specific room? What if Siri worked directly through your watch and you could make calls, listen to music, watch a program, check your schedule, and transcribe an email? What if you could make payments at credit/debit payment systems at retail shops? What if your smartwatch could check your vital statistics, monitor blood sugar levels, and even signal 911 if you've "fallen and can't get up?" What would you pay for that watch? How many of those watches would Apple sell? Cheers! I can tell you that Apple's watch will do little of those things. In fact, I'll bet you money that people will barf on how little it does, complain about how Apple is losing its touch after Jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 i agree, a watch probably wont do much more than increase the ios moat by a little bit. but that little bit counts for alot since the ios market is so gigantic. a watch with NFC that can unlock ios devices nearby is enough to make it a compelling buy for alot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Ok, lets see. How big is the watch market? What can they price their smartwatch at? A smartwatch doesn't exist yet, so market size is zero right now. The question is how big will it be? As for pricing, again there are no smartwatches to compare with, but dumb-watches range from about $2 to over $200,000. I think they will price it somewhere between those extremes. My best guess would be $100-300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 http://store.sony.com/p/Sony-Android-Watch-Smart-Phone-SmartWatch-Bondwatch-Pink-Mint-Grey-White-Blue-Black-Multicolor-Multi-Color/en/p/MN2SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So, I, the supposedly irrationally biased Apple bull is telling rational people to temper their expectations on Apple, not to believe the media hype. Has hell frozen over? ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 http://store.sony.com/p/Sony-Android-Watch-Smart-Phone-SmartWatch-Bondwatch-Pink-Mint-Grey-White-Blue-Black-Multicolor-Multi-Color/en/p/MN2SW OK, so the smartwatch does exist. The fact that I didn't know that, probably indicates that the current market is near zero. That Sony product doesn't sound very compelling to me and the way it looks, I don't see too many people wanting to wear it. It looks like the 6th Gen iPod nano with a watch strap accessory. If that is all the iWatch turns out to be, or what it looks like, it will not be the next big thing for Apple. Hopefully they have something better than that up their sleeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So, I, the supposedly irrationally biased Apple bull is telling rational people to temper their expectations on Apple, not to believe the media hype. Has hell frozen over? ;D ;D ;D Accepting yourself is the first step to recovery. ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecynic Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 http://store.sony.com/p/Sony-Android-Watch-Smart-Phone-SmartWatch-Bondwatch-Pink-Mint-Grey-White-Blue-Black-Multicolor-Multi-Color/en/p/MN2SW Doesn't look like something Apple would design. I think the iWatch is going to look like the rightmost one in this graphic - http://9to5mac.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/iwatch-graphic-001.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I haven't worn a watch in about 25 years, and can't really imagine wearing any type of smartwatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I wear a watch every day. This is my current watch, which I've had for 3 or 4 years now. I can't stand needing to pull out my cell phone to check the time as most watchless people do these days. I also couldn't imagine wearing any type of smartwatch. It is probably a given that the smartwatch will need a smartphone to work, so I'd need to first get a smartphone. Something I've yet to do and don't see myself getting in the near future. I am not apple's target customer for this. You probably aren't either if you don't like watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So, I, the supposedly irrationally biased Apple bull is telling rational people to temper their expectations on Apple, not to believe the media hype. Has hell frozen over? ;D ;D ;D Accepting yourself is the first step to recovery. ;D Cheers! Notice, I used the word "supposedly". ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'm very interested in what they come up with. I like watches. And, like Parsad explained a couple of posts ago, one can imagine a myriad of cool things that are possible with an iWatch. On the other hand, most people don't wear watches to keep track of time. They're just a (fashion) statement and/or symbol of status. So if you're a successful businessman with an expensive Rolex, or a hot chick with a nice Cartier watch, would you ever switch to a watch that makes you look like a nerd? Not sure about that. The iWatch has to have some very cool functionality to overcome this problem, I'd say. But Apple obviously thought about this. Maybe they want people to wear it on their other wrist. For the same reason I am also very curious about Project Glass from Google: potentially the coolest gadget ever invented. However, if you walk around in a bar with these plastic glasses on (shouting instructions to post a photo on Facebook) you will definitely look like a tool. I'm wondering how Google and Apple are perceiving this problem and what they want to do about it. Apple succeeded pretty well in making the iPhone 'fashionable' (whatever that may be :) ), not so sure about Google. http://truetimetools.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/iwc-big-pilot_s-watch-02.jpg Unfortunately not mine, but would def not switch it for an iWatch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 just received my Pebble today (http://getpebble.com/). Paid $110 for it as an original Kickstarter backer, but must admit I'm considering unloading it on eBay for $200-250 (current market), in hopes of holding out for Apple's version. Pebble is cool -- you can read incoming emails, texts, view CallerID. It has an accelerometer and future integration with heart monitors and it is waterproof (read emails in the shower anyone?)...but I am curious about the Apple watch...especially if it acted as a speakerphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 So, I, the supposedly irrationally biased Apple bull is telling rational people to temper their expectations on Apple, not to believe the media hype. Has hell frozen over? ;D ;D ;D Accepting yourself is the first step to recovery. ;D Cheers! Notice, I used the word "supposedly". ;) LOL! I thought I could have gotten you into a 12-step recovery program. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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