AAPL - Apple Inc.

[berkshiremystery]

1993 vs 2013,... some comparison without words.  ::)

 

 

Very cool and accurate, but a few other things that are missing.

 

- A Map

- GPS

- Calendar

- Flashlight

- Calculator

- Notepad

- Address Book

- Foreign Language Dictionary

- Video Game Console

 

To name a few.  Cheers!

 

 

Wired recently had a much better diagram in its magazine.  Here it is on its website:

 

How Over 40 Gadgets Converge Into the Tiny Device in Your Pocket

 

 

Outlook is gloomy for digital camera sales

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/technology/outlook-is-gloomy-for-digital-camera-sales-1.539187

 

----

 

Not for the first time, convenience is valued more than quality. “We have seen it with portable media players and sat nav systems,” says Sam Gee, technology analyst at Mintel. “Choosing lower quality over convenience might not be a conscious decision, but nine times out of 10 consumers will reach for a smartphone to take a picture.”

 

Part of the convenience is the ecosystem of web services that have grown up around camera phones, making it easy to share pictures online as well as add glossy effects. In the last year, photo and video apps have taken over from gaming as the most popular downloads, according to Gee. “You can buy an application with 25 filters and 35 frames. In under 2½ minutes, you can take, edit and send a picture,” he says.

 

[rkbabang]

1993 vs 2013,... some comparison without words.  ::)

 

 

Very cool and accurate, but a few other things that are missing.

 

- A Map

- GPS

- Calendar

- Flashlight

- Calculator

- Notepad

- Address Book

- Foreign Language Dictionary

- Video Game Console

 

To name a few.  Cheers!

 

 

Wired recently had a much better diagram in its magazine.  Here it is on its website:

 

How Over 40 Gadgets Converge Into the Tiny Device in Your Pocket

 

 

Outlook is gloomy for digital camera sales

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/technology/outlook-is-gloomy-for-digital-camera-sales-1.539187

 

----

 

Not for the first time, convenience is valued more than quality. “We have seen it with portable media players and sat nav systems,” says Sam Gee, technology analyst at Mintel. “Choosing lower quality over convenience might not be a conscious decision, but nine times out of 10 consumers will reach for a smartphone to take a picture.”

 

Part of the convenience is the ecosystem of web services that have grown up around camera phones, making it easy to share pictures online as well as add glossy effects. In the last year, photo and video apps have taken over from gaming as the most popular downloads, according to Gee. “You can buy an application with 25 filters and 35 frames. In under 2½ minutes, you can take, edit and send a picture,” he says.

 

 

At the last company I worked for (I left a year and a half ago) I was in the digital imaging group. We designed chips for digital cameras and we were already seeing our sales flattening out dramatically back then.  The US market was already just about completely flat and the rest of the world was flattening fast (although there was still some small amount of growth projected for Asia).  I knew it was time to look for other work.  Since I left I know of at least 4 of my fellow chip designers now work elsewhere as well.  Not a good market to be in.

 

[Guest valueInv]

Like I've said, narratives:

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/09/apple-ipad-mini-pegatron-bloomberg/

[berkshiremystery]

Greenblatt was on Bloomberg talking about Apple & Google...

 

Joel Greenblatt Says Apple, Google Are ‘Bargains’

May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Joel Greenblatt, managing partner at Gotham Asset Management, talks about investment strategy and some of his stock picks, including Apple Inc. Greenblatt also discusses some of his stock shorts, including J.C. Penney Co., and his view on Herbalife Ltd. He speaks with Erik Schatzker at the SALT Conference 2013 in Las Vegas on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg)

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/joel-greenblatt-says-apple-google-are-bargains-OLzHrZqvRSeS6Es8wapTRA.html

 

or

 

http://video.ca.msn.com/watch/video/joel-greenblatt-says-apple-google-are-bargains/2h9oou9r4

 

 

[Guest wellmont]

Greenblatt seems to have shifted to be a statistical investor. Still value based, however. But listen carefully to his wording. He says if you owned a "basket" of companies like Apple you will do very well. And it's a very small position. He is extremely diversified. He acknowledged that Apple is a tech company and is difficult to figure out exactly what is going to happen. This would be a very big deal if this was the Concentrated Greenblatt saying he owned Apple.

[berkshiremystery]

Greenblatt seems to have shifted to be a statistical investor. Still value based, however. But listen carefully to his wording. He says if you owned a "basket" of companies like Apple you will do very well. And it's a very small position. He is extremely diversified. He acknowledged that Apple is a tech company and is difficult to figure out exactly what is going to happen. This would be a very big deal if this was the Concentrated Greenblatt saying he owned Apple.

 

I know,... he has become a zoo director owning hundreds of companies  :o

 

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001510387&HolderName=GOTHAM+ASSET+MANAGEMENT%2C+LLC

[Palantir]

Google is a bargain? I'd say it's moderately below IV=900

[berkshiremystery]

Google is a bargain? I'd say it's moderately below IV=900

 

 

Nope,... on the current valuation, it's probably not cheap. But Google might currently be similar to Apple prior to the iPhone in 2007. What is the future value of the Google Glass ? Everybody should have a very close look at the Google Glass Project 2013. This might be some similar disruptive technology like the iPhone or iPad. Imagine someone wears some Terminator-like visor glass with build-in micro-camera, CPU, 16GB flash memory, Wifi, Bluetooth, GPS and some mobil phone device. Everybody would be able to scan people real time on the street, the mall or supermarket with some immediate reverse look-up to Google Image Search and some facial recognition software on Facebook or YouTube.

 

The Google Glass Project 2013

http://www.techblis.com/what-is-google-project-glass-2013-features-images-demo/

 

http://s24.postimg.org/k9w9e84o5/image.jpg

 

http://s8.postimg.org/6j97gof6d/image.jpg

 

 

-----

 

 

Sergey Brin talks about Google Glass @ TED Talks 2013

Video (13:29min)

 

http://s23.postimg.org/5lsrcnzq3/image.jpg

 

-----

 

How It Feels through Glass - Google Glass Official Promo 20/02/2013

Video (2:16min)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BTCoT8ajbI

 

http://s7.postimg.org/up4he9r3v/image.jpg

 

-----

 

Project Glass: Live Demo At Google I/O

Video (11:27min)

 

http://s13.postimg.org/gpknil593/image.jpg

 

=========

 

 

 

 

Google Glass -- Sergey Brin's Wife Demos High-Tech Spectacles at Oscar Party

Video (1:23min)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xI_YGDMvlNY

 

http://s15.postimg.org/g2gjxp397/image.jpg

 

----

 

And here is some disruptive parody of the future with Google Glass.

 

How Guys Will Use Google Glass

Video (2:46min)

 

http://s7.postimg.org/nsx9ygdq3/image.jpg

 

----

 

[Guest valueInv]

Google is a bargain? I'd say it's moderately below IV=900

 

 

Nope,... on the current valuation, it's probably not cheap. But Google might currently be similar to Apple prior to the iPhone in 2007. What is the future value of the Google Glass ? Everybody should have a very close look at the Google Glass Project 2013. This might be some similar disruptive technology like the iPhone or iPad. Imagine someone wears some Terminator-like visor glass with build-in micro-camera, CPU, 16GB flash memory, Wifi, Bluetooth, GPS and some mobil phone device. Everybody would be able to scan people real time on the street, the mall or supermarket with some immediate reverse look-up to Google Image Search and some facial recognition software on Facebook or YouTube.

 

The Google Glass Project 2013

http://www.techblis.com/what-is-google-project-glass-2013-features-images-demo/

 

http://s24.postimg.org/k9w9e84o5/image.jpg

 

http://s8.postimg.org/6j97gof6d/image.jpg

 

 

-----

 

 

Sergey Brin talks about Google Glass @ TED Talks 2013

Video (13:29min)

 

http://s23.postimg.org/5lsrcnzq3/image.jpg

 

-----

 

How It Feels through Glass - Google Glass Official Promo 20/02/2013

Video (2:16min)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BTCoT8ajbI

 

http://s7.postimg.org/up4he9r3v/image.jpg

 

-----

 

Project Glass: Live Demo At Google I/O

Video (11:27min)

 

http://s13.postimg.org/gpknil593/image.jpg

 

=========

 

 

 

 

Google Glass -- Sergey Brin's Wife Demos High-Tech Spectacles at Oscar Party

Video (1:23min)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xI_YGDMvlNY

 

http://s15.postimg.org/g2gjxp397/image.jpg

 

----

 

You should read the reviews that Glass is getting.

[Guest wellmont]

lol. glass is not even a factor in the valuation. glass is the next frontier. it's a wildcard with only upside. meanwhile their search franchise is proving to be one of the best large businesses on the planet. The reason (one of them) that apple multiple is so low and confidence in the company is low, is that they have not shown they are working on the next frontier. Google at least is taking some risks. Apple is trying to make a better iphone and ipad.

 

ps: I can only stay tuned for so long. :)

[berkshiremystery]

 

 

You should read the reviews that Glass is getting.

 

I know,... most of those reviews are blurry. But someone might also fall in the same opinion trap like Steve Ballmer and his famous quote about the future of the iPhone in 2007.

 

Something tells me this seems to be very disruptive already before it's sold to the general public. Legendary Las Vegas casino, Caesar's Palace, has confirmed that visitors will be forbidden from wearing such devices. And lazy me only thought of scanning products or price tags in the local supermarket to compare them with the competition.

[Guest valueInv]

lol. glass is not even a factor in the valuation. glass is the next frontier. it's a wildcard with only upside. meanwhile their search franchise is proving to be one of the best large businesses on the planet. The reason (one of them) that apple multiple is so low and confidence in the company is low, is that they have not shown they are working on the next frontier. Google at least is taking some risks. Apple is trying to make a better iphone and ipad.

 

ps: I can only stay tuned for so long. :)

 

When you tend to be a long term investor, you tend to stay tuned for long periods of time.

 

I hope you have been staying tuned for "the worst capital allocation in corporate history" which resulted in Apple issuing debt at record low prices and probably buying back stock at incredibly low prices too.

[Guest valueInv]

 

 

You should read the reviews that Glass is getting.

 

I know,... most of those reviews are blurry. But someone might also fall in the same opinion trap like Steve Ballmer and his famous quote about the future of the iPhone in 2007.

 

Something tells me this seems to be very disruptive already before it's sold to the general public. Legendary Las Vegas casino, Caesar's Palace, has confirmed that visitors will be forbidden from wearing such devices. And lazy me only thought of scanning products or price tags in the local supermarket to compare them with the competition.

 

It is also getting banned at bars, locker rooms, etc.

Take a look at the Apple Newton, Segway and Google Wave.

[Palantir]

^ You should hedge your bets, for all you know you could be sounding like the guys who were mocking the iPhone when it was released. Just watch when at the next BRK meeting, all of the value investing dudes show up wearing Google Glass.

 

This is what it will look like:

Warren Buffet: 8)

Charlie Munger: 8)

wellmont 8)

Parsad: 8)

 

etc etc

[meiroy]

Greenblatt seems to have shifted to be a statistical investor. Still value based, however. But listen carefully to his wording. He says if you owned a "basket" of companies like Apple you will do very well. And it's a very small position. He is extremely diversified. He acknowledged that Apple is a tech company and is difficult to figure out exactly what is going to happen. This would be a very big deal if this was the Concentrated Greenblatt saying he owned Apple.

 

I know,... he has become a zoo director owning hundreds of companies  :o

 

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001510387&HolderName=GOTHAM+ASSET+MANAGEMENT%2C+LLC

 

He has been into it since the Magic Formula days, nothing new here -- he thinks it's good enough for the average Joe and much easier to implement than individual company investing.  Last year he started a long/short fund based on similar ideas.

 

[Viking]

wellmont, I think you have hit on what makes Apple such an interesting investment. I agree that Apple's valuation is so low because "they have not shown they are working on the next frontier". Wall Street wants companies to play by certain rules. Wall street wants certainty. They want companies to telegraph. They want short term predictability, with certainty being even better (just think of all the darling companies that hit analyst expectations every quarter to the penny).

 

Unfortunately, Apple has their own play book. They are very secretive. They simply do not play the Wall Street game. Tim Cook has said repeatedly they make decisions for the long term. They do not chase short term revenue (i.e. put Apple on everything).

 

Of interest, Apple has increased spending on R&D significanantly over the past few years. Now it is possible that all of this spending is on iphone and ipad. It is also possible that they have some breakthrough innovation coming. Which brings us back to why Apple is such an interesting company. For those investors who want near term certainty, Apple is certainly a terrible investment. For those with a longer time horizon Apple looks much more appetizing.

[Guest valueInv]

^ You should hedge your bets, for all you know you could be sounding like the guys who were mocking the iPhone when it was released. Just watch when at the next BRK meeting, all of the value investing dudes show up wearing Google Glass.

 

This is what it will look like:

Warren Buffet: 8)

Charlie Munger: 8)

wellmont 8)

Parsad: 8)

 

etc etc

 

My analysis at the time the iPhone was released told me that it was going to change the market. My analysis of Glass tells me that it is going to fail to gain mainstream adoption.

[rkbabang]

My analysis at the time the iPhone was released told me that it was going to change the market. My analysis of Glass tells me that it is going to fail to gain mainstream adoption.

 

I can't wait to be able to link back to this in a few years.  :)

 

Don't get me wrong Google's version might not be a huge hit, they have yet to prove to me that they can be a successful consumer gadget company, but some  eyeglass device is going to change the world in the very near future.  Who knows it could be an Apple iGlass.  A product that gets this many governments and corporations to crap their pants before it is even on the market is going to change the world.

[Guest valueInv]

My analysis at the time the iPhone was released told me that it was going to change the market. My analysis of Glass tells me that it is going to fail to gain mainstream adoption.

 

I can't wait to be able to link back to this in a few years.  :)

 

Don't get me wrong Google's version might not be a huge hit, they have yet to prove to me that they can be a successful consumer gadget company, but some  eyeglass device is going to change the world in the very near future.  Who knows it could be an Apple iGlass.  A product that gets this many governments and corporations to crap their pants before it is even on the market is going to change the world.

 

The Segway was getting govts to crap their pants too.

 

I highly doubt Apple is going to do an iGlass in the same vein as Glass.

[Palantir]

Segway isn't comparable, people actually want to try this stuff. They've done it their best to make it hip. I would totally walk into a bar wearing Google Glass, "hey there"  ;).

[rkbabang]

The Segway was getting govts to crap their pants too.

 

I don't remember any fear of the Segway by anyone?  Government was afraid of mall-cops?

I do remember people thinking it would replace cars in cities, which never happened.

 

 

I highly doubt Apple is going to do an iGlass in the same vein as Glass.

 

I highly doubt they won't.  Even if they are not the first to come to market (as they weren't with smartphones) they will be the company which makes these things fashionable and easy to use.  My prediction is that Google Glass will be limited to tech-geek types and and will be popular in certain circles.  A few years after Apple releases it your kids, your co-workers, (and maybe even your grandmother) will have a pair or three (there isn't any reason why the active circuitry couldn't be put into a module which could be swapped between multiple pairs of cheep frames).

 

[Guest valueInv]

The Segway was getting govts to crap their pants too.

 

I don't remember any fear of the Segway by anyone?  Government was afraid of mall-cops?

I do remember people thinking it would replace cars in cities, which never happened.

 

 

I highly doubt Apple is going to do an iGlass in the same vein as Glass.

 

I highly doubt they won't.  Even if they are not the first to come to market (as they weren't with smartphones) they will be the company which makes these things fashionable and easy to use.  My prediction is that Google Glass will be limited to tech-geek types and and will be popular in certain circles.  A few years after Apple releases it your kids, your co-workers, (and maybe even your grandmother) will have a pair or three (there isn't any reason why the active circuitry couldn't be put into a module which could be swapped between multiple pairs of cheep frames).

 

Many cities banned Segways because they felt they were unsafe and too fast for sidewalks.

[Guest valueInv]

Segway isn't comparable, people actually want to try this stuff. They've done it their best to make it hip. I would totally walk into a bar wearing Google Glass, "hey there"  ;).

 

A ton of people wanted to try Segways, it was going to revolutionize transportation.

 

I'm sure you will want to into a bar wearing those, you just won't walk out with a woman 8)

[VAL9000]

I'm sure you will want to into a bar wearing those, you just won't walk out with a woman 8)

 

Unless they are into exhibitionism. :D

 

[VAL9000]

You should read the reviews that Glass is getting.

 

It is also possible that [Apple has] some breakthrough innovation coming.

 

I think these two comments fairly emphasize the difference in approach that Apple and Google are taking to product management.  Apple is closed, veiled in secrecy, and takes the "we'll do it right the first time" approach.  Google is open, public, and iterates constantly.

 

They're both good approaches, but they need two constant reminders for investors:

1) Apple will never show its hand until they're good and ready, so you can never say that they're "tapped out" when it comes to innovation.

 

2) The first public version of a Google product may not be the last, so you can never say a new product is a failure until it's had time to breathe.

 

Google is home to a lot of public product failures.  Apple, I am sure, is home to a number of private failures.  To each their own I guess.

 

One thing I am glad of is that these competitors are completely different in terms of their approach to innovation and in their ideology.  It just wouldn't be as fun if that weren't the case.