AAPL - Apple Inc.

[Guest valueInv]

I'm sure you will want to into a bar wearing those, you just won't walk out with a woman 8)

 

Unless they are into exhibitionism. :D

 

Sure, if he swings that way :)

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/tepper-s-appaloosa-cut-apple-stake-by-41-as-shares-fell.html

 

 

.Tepper’s Appaloosa Cut Apple Stake by 41% as Shares Fell

 

[Guest valueInv]

Apple in India:

 

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/05/16/aapl-way-behind-bbry-samsung-in-india-says-global-equities/

[Guest wellmont]

 

I'm sure you will want to into a bar wearing those, you just won't walk out with a woman 8)

 

this seems way different than segways. and wrist watches, lol, are going to have many of the same privacy concerns as GG, for example wearing an apple watch in Locker rooms. I don't know; wrist watches are just a lame as glasses as a new product category. lets see what each company can do with their new products.

 

As far as geek pick up, if you went into a bar in Menlo Park wearing GG, you might walk out with a gal on each arm. :)

[Guest valueInv]

 

I'm sure you will want to into a bar wearing those, you just won't walk out with a woman 8)

 

this seems way different than segways. and wrist watches, lol, are going to have many of the same privacy concerns as GG, for example wearing an apple watch in Locker rooms. I don't know; wrist watches are just a lame as glasses as a new product category. lets see what each company can do with their new products.

 

As far as geek pick up, if you went into a bar in Menlo Park wearing GG, you might walk out with a gal on each arm. :)

 

Try it. I've been there.

 

Something tells me that it just doesn't match reality 8):

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1672609/even-google-s-own-developers-wont-be-seen-wearing-google-glass

 

I doubt an Apple watch is going to have a camera or any privacy issues.

[Guest wellmont]

 

I'm sure you will want to into a bar wearing those, you just won't walk out with a woman 8)

 

this seems way different than segways. and wrist watches, lol, are going to have many of the same privacy concerns as GG, for example wearing an apple watch in Locker rooms. I don't know; wrist watches are just a lame as glasses as a new product category. lets see what each company can do with their new products.

 

As far as geek pick up, if you went into a bar in Menlo Park wearing GG, you might walk out with a gal on each arm. :)

 

Try it. I've been there.

 

Something tells me that it just doesn't match reality 8):

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1672609/even-google-s-own-developers-wont-be-seen-wearing-google-glass

 

I doubt an Apple watch is going to have a camera or any privacy issues.

 

And I am sure that Tim Cook is going to replace his Rolex with a Gen 1 Apple watch. lol.

[PlanMaestro]

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/5/1/apple-open-and-learning-from-history

[boilermaker75]

FWIW, Einhorn added 815,700 shares of APPL during the first quarter, for a total now of 2,397,706 shares.

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1079114/000114036113021005/form13fhr.txt

[berkshiremystery]

I might cross link some other forum thread about Apple tax issues

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/tax-strategies/msg116919/#msg116919

[Guest valueInv]

Competition is increasing ;):

 

http://feeds.venturebeat.com/~r/Venturebeat/~3/CsxTZKbcAt4/story01.htm

[Guest wellmont]

Competition is increasing ;):

 

http://feeds.venturebeat.com/~r/Venturebeat/~3/CsxTZKbcAt4/story01.htm

 

htc is going to be sold within 6mo. I think nokia may have a look. the chinese (lenovo) certainly. msft possibly. they make great phones. but they don't have the scale and infrastructure to compete well.

[Guest valueInv]

Competition is increasing ;):

 

http://feeds.venturebeat.com/~r/Venturebeat/~3/CsxTZKbcAt4/story01.htm

 

htc is going to be sold within 6mo. I think nokia may have a look. the chinese (lenovo) certainly. msft possibly. they make great phones. but they don't have the scale and infrastructure to compete well.

 

I doubt MsFT or Nokia will be interested. Others, maybe.

 

Google should buy them ;D, they've got money to burn.

[Guest wellmont]

Competition is increasing ;):

 

http://feeds.venturebeat.com/~r/Venturebeat/~3/CsxTZKbcAt4/story01.htm

htc is going to be sold within 6mo. I think nokia may have a look. the chinese (lenovo) certainly. msft possibly. they make great phones. but they don't have the scale and infrastructure to compete well.

 

I doubt MsFT or Nokia will be interested. Others, maybe.

 

Google should buy them ;D, they've got money to burn.

 

msft may want to hedge their nok partnership. it would be bite sized for them. they have a very deep longstanding relationship with HTC. it would be out of the box thinking to do this. but they are doing hardware now.

[Guest valueInv]

Competition is increasing ;):

 

http://feeds.venturebeat.com/~r/Venturebeat/~3/CsxTZKbcAt4/story01.htm

htc is going to be sold within 6mo. I think nokia may have a look. the chinese (lenovo) certainly. msft possibly. they make great phones. but they don't have the scale and infrastructure to compete well.

 

I doubt MsFT or Nokia will be interested. Others, maybe.

 

Google should buy them ;D, they've got money to burn.

 

msft may want to hedge their nok partnership. it would be bite sized for them. they have a very deep longstanding relationship with HTC. it would be out of the box thinking to do this. but they are doing hardware now.

 

They would also jeopordize their relationship with their largest smartphone partner after failing to make a dent on their tablet foray.

[Guest wellmont]

true but they already are doing that with surface. and nok is all in on windows and it's too late to change for them. I think they could get away with having one hero device they would sell in their own stores. htc wouldnt' be that expensive. but then again why bother? makes a lot of sense for someone like lenovo or one of the other big 2 chinese.

[Guest valueInv]

From Chapter 6: How to Avoid Commoditization

 

(Note: this is a whole chapter on commoditization in "The Innovator's Solution."  ValueInv, do yourself a favor by buying this book and reading it. ;))

 

The process that transforms a profitable, differentiated product into a commodity is the process of overshooting and modularization. . . . When [the] circumstance changes—when the dominant, profitable companies overshoot what their mainstream customers can use—then this game can no longer be played, and the tables begin to turn.  Customers will not pay still-higher prices for products they already deem too good.  Before long, modularity rules, and commoditization sets in.  When the relevant dimensions of your product’s performance are determined not by you but by the subsystems that you procure from your suppliers, it becomes difficult to earn anything more than subsistence returns in a product category that used to make a lot of money.  When your world becomes modular, you’ll need to look elsewhere in the value chain to make any serious money.

 

The natural and inescapable process of commoditization occurs in six steps:

 

1. As a new market coalesces, a company develops a proprietary product that, while not good enough, comes closer to satisfying customers’ needs than any of its competitors.  It does this through a proprietary architecture, and earns attractive profit margins.

2. As the company strives to keep ahead of its direct competitors, it eventually overshoots the functionality and reliability that customers in lower tiers of the market can utilize.

3. This precipitates a change in the basis of competition in those tiers, which . . .

4. . . . precipitates an evolution toward modular architectures, which . . .

5. . . . facilitates the dis-integration of the industry, which in turn . . .

6. . . . makes it very difficult to differentiate the performance or costs of the product versus those of competitors, who have access to the same components and assemble according to the same standards.  This condition begins at the bottom of the market, where functional overshoot occurs first, and then moves up inexorably to affect the higher tiers.

 

Note that it is overshooting—the more-than-good-enough circumstance—that connects disruption and the phenomenon of commoditization.  Disruption and commoditization can be seen as two sides of the same coin.  A company that finds itself in a more-than-good-enough circumstance simply can’t win:  Either disruption will steal its markets, or commoditization will steal its profits.

 

. . .

 

There can still be prosperity around the corner, however.  The attractive profits of the future are often to be earned elsewhere in the value chain, in different stages or layers of added value.  That’s because the process of commoditization initiates a reciprocal process of de-commoditization.  Ironically, this de-commoditization—with the attendant ability to earn lots of money—occurs in places in the value chain where attractive profits were hard to attain in the past:  in the formerly modular and undifferentiable processes, components, or subsystems.

 

--------

 

The mobile device industry is becoming modular in nature.  Google provides the OS for close to free.  Samsung and others manufacturer components and handsets.  Google and third party app developers provide the layers of added value on top of the OS.  New standards like HTML5 make it almost inevitable that modularization will win.

 

Thus, the additional functionality/problem solvers that we are waiting for comes in the form of better components, peripherals, apps and services that are attached to the OS in a modular fashion.  It is there where the money will be made, not in the OS.  For example, I look at Google Now or Siri as something that is separate from the OS – it’s an app/service.  Same thing with buying books from Amazon – the Kindle bookstore is available everywhere.  iTunes is a good example of a useful service that could be decoupled from iOS and OSX.

 

The point is that the OS is being commoditized, and it is the de-commoditized layers where we should look for profits.  Eric Schmidt said as much in his interview at AllThingsD, which I posted in the GOOG thread.

 

This poses problems for Apple’s current business model – hopefully, they will change with the times. 

 

More to follow . . .

 

Here's more follow on evidence of Txlaw's commoditization and modularization theory:

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/05/22/htc-one-and-the-harsh-reality-of-the-android-ecosystem/

[Viking]

Here is the latest from John Kirk at Techpinions. He makes a couple of great points:

1.) 'Android' is a multi-headed animal; it is so forked with so many variations that are incompatible with each other. Talking about total 'Andoid' market share share tells us much less than is assumed.

2.) Too much attention is being paid to market share data. Yes, it is an important metric. However, profit share is more important and it gets no press.

 

Article: http://techpinions.com/androids-market-share-is-literally-a-joke/16709

 

[constructive]

true but they already are doing that with surface. and nok is all in on windows and it's too late to change for them. I think they could get away with having one hero device they would sell in their own stores. htc wouldnt' be that expensive. but then again why bother? makes a lot of sense for someone like lenovo or one of the other big 2 chinese.

 

HTC's market cap is $8B, Lenovo is $9.7B, and ZTE is $7B (Huawei is private). Not a digestible acquisition for many companies.

 

HTC's capital position is fine, they have no reason to sell unless they get a high valuation. I'd say there is <5% chance they are acquired in the next 6 months.

[Guest wellmont]

HTC's market cap is $8B, Lenovo is $9.7B, and ZTE is $7B (Huawei is private). Not a digestible acquisition for many companies.

 

HTC's capital position is fine, they have no reason to sell unless they get a high valuation. I'd say there is <5% chance they are acquired in the next 6 months.

 

why would they remain independent? they can't create shareholder value. they are treading water barely profitable. Stock where it was in 2005. less than 2% global share in smartphones. Well behind Samsung and apple. this is a sitting duck. they need to be consolidated. and i expect it will happen.

 

2Q 2013 Outlook

The Company’s outlook for the second quarter of 2013 is as follows:

 

2Q revenue is expected to be around NT$70 billion

Gross profit margin expected to be 22-24%

Operating margin expected to be 1-3%

[constructive]

HTC's market cap is $8B, Lenovo is $9.7B, and ZTE is $7B (Huawei is private). Not a digestible acquisition for many companies.

 

HTC's capital position is fine, they have no reason to sell unless they get a high valuation. I'd say there is <5% chance they are acquired in the next 6 months.

 

why would they remain independent? they can't create shareholder value. they are treading water barely profitable. Stock where it was in 2005. less than 2% global share in smartphones. Well behind Samsung and apple. this is a sitting duck. they need to be consolidated. and i expect it will happen.

 

2Q 2013 Outlook

The Company’s outlook for the second quarter of 2013 is as follows:

 

2Q revenue is expected to be around NT$70 billion

Gross profit margin expected to be 22-24%

Operating margin expected to be 1-3%

 

They were doing pretty well until 2011. I don't think you're looking at it from the mindset of HTC managers/shareholders - I imagine they are still optimistic about the company's future.

 

Anyways, it takes two to tango. No indication HTC is interested, and no indication anyone else is interested.

[Guest wellmont]

things may be different in taiwan. do they have a controlling shareholder? if so then I guess they can be patient and just keep treading water. but if this company was in USA with no controlling shareholder, activists would be all over it for underperformance. Of course management is optimistic about the future. they are paid to be.

[Guest valueInv]

HTC's market cap is $8B, Lenovo is $9.7B, and ZTE is $7B (Huawei is private). Not a digestible acquisition for many companies.

 

HTC's capital position is fine, they have no reason to sell unless they get a high valuation. I'd say there is <5% chance they are acquired in the next 6 months.

 

why would they remain independent? they can't create shareholder value. they are treading water barely profitable. Stock where it was in 2005. less than 2% global share in smartphones. Well behind Samsung and apple. this is a sitting duck. they need to be consolidated. and i expect it will happen.

 

2Q 2013 Outlook

The Company’s outlook for the second quarter of 2013 is as follows:

 

2Q revenue is expected to be around NT$70 billion

Gross profit margin expected to be 22-24%

Operating margin expected to be 1-3%

 

They were doing pretty well until 2011. I don't think you're looking at it from the mindset of HTC managers/shareholders - I imagine they are still optimistic about the company's future.

 

Anyways, it takes two to tango. No indication HTC is interested, and no indication anyone else is interested.

 

How are they optimistic is they're all abandoning ship?

[DCG]

I know it's not that new at this point, but I really dislike iTunes 11. I really hope this is not a sign of what's to come.

 

I know not everyone liked the old version, but this version is highly unintuitive. I've configured it to look/work like iTunes 10 (adding the sidebars, etc) as much as I can, but this design is far from simple.

[Palantir]

I liked the old iTunes, circa 2005, just a simple list with music. Not this giant hulu thing.

[ZenaidaMacroura]

I work for a company whose founder is the father of HTC's founder.

 

At one point they were thinking of listing here, but didn't want to "give up control."  I think In taiwan there is slightly more reverence towards founders/long standing managers and acquisitions have not been in vogue lately.  If there is an acquirer it will more than likely be another asiatic company.  Although there is little impetus for them to sell...