VAL9000 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Guys to inject some humour on this very grey Sunday in the Cape Btw, I get that your post was intended to be a gentle nudge and a way of saying that maybe we're spending a bit too much time on AAPL (and perhaps other tech companies). But I think the discussion has been very valuable because there has been some very good debate on the business fundamentals associated with these tech companies. I view it as good mental exercise for thinking about business. If my posts were proportionate to my portfolio, I'd be posting way more about financials, nat gas companies, telcos, and auto manufacturers. But there is less to work out about those other investments. Let's not forget that it's a lot more fun than financials or telcos. The competition is fierce and the playing field is in a constant state of flux. Competitive traits that seem minor can be amplified enormously with the right execution and can be disruptive to the market. There are a lot of false starts, too, which gives credit to the idea that much of what we talk about is minor / unimportant. I'll add that, because change is rapid and ever-present, the education on business can be accelerated for those that pay attention. If you take the time to understand the whys of these fortunes and failures, you will be better equipped to understand the nature of competition and business in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Nothing against doing some valuation work and thinking about shares, margins, etc. -- it's just that it seems all a bit minor. I think AAPL's price over the next few years will be driven what the market thinks of its products (hence my "either they will or they won't" point). The core business will of course see erosion over time - such is the way of the world. :) And there you have it. Now I did participate in a thread I thought I'd better stay out of! C. Guys to inject some humour on this very grey Sunday in the Cape Btw, I get that your post was intended to be a gentle nudge and a way of saying that maybe we're spending a bit too much time on AAPL (and perhaps other tech companies). But I think the discussion has been very valuable because there has been some very good debate on the business fundamentals associated with these tech companies. I view it as good mental exercise for thinking about business. If my posts were proportionate to my portfolio, I'd be posting way more about financials, nat gas companies, telcos, and auto manufacturers. But there is less to work out about those other investments. Let's not forget that it's a lot more fun than financials or telcos. The competition is fierce and the playing field is in a constant state of flux. Competitive traits that seem minor can be amplified enormously with the right execution and can be disruptive to the market. There are a lot of false starts, too, which gives credit to the idea that much of what we talk about is minor / unimportant. I'll add that, because change is rapid and ever-present, the education on business can be accelerated for those that pay attention. If you take the time to understand the whys of these fortunes and failures, you will be better equipped to understand the nature of competition and business in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 At the star of this year one of the key questions I had with Apple and many large cap teck companies (MSFT, CSCO etc) was how to value all the net cash on the balance sheet. HP is the poster child of how a company can squander its cash on poor aquisitions; some may also not be happy with how Dell spent its cash over the years (aquistions and large share repurchases at inflated prices). IBM is perhaps viewed as the poster child at the other extreme; as a company that found the right balance in how it has allocated its retained earnings (between dividends, share repurchases and usually smaller aquisitions); Buffett recently gave IBM his 'seal of approval' with Berkshire's large purchase of shares and he must have been happy with IBM's capital allocation over many years. I recently came across the following article; I think it does a good job of summarizing the issue: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2013/02/excess-cash-on-the-balance-sheet-is-wealth-destruction.html Until just recently (the resumption of the dividend in 2012) Apple has been a serial cash hoarder for the past decade with their cash balance steadily morphing into its current total. This likely has to do with their near death experience many years ago when Steve J returned to the company. Based on decisions we have seen over the past 12 months it looks like Apple is saying the cash pile is 'big enough'. The dividend yield is a little under 3%, which is very good (with US treasuries at a lower yield). Share repurchases look to be the preferred vehicle to return larger one-time amounts to shareholders; what I like here is Apple seems to be paying attention to stock price (with the accelerated $16 billion purchase); why speed it up unless you think the stock is cheap and likely will not stay cheap? Bottom line is they have made some great decisions over the past 12 months on the return of capital front. I would give Tim Cook an 'A' letter grade for the decisions and actions they have taken in April to July. First they beefed up the authorization to $60 billion. They then purchased $16 billion in shares in one quarter alone. I am hopeful they keep purchasing more shares in large quantities in the Sept quarter while the shares continue to trade below $450. If is also interesting to look at the goodwill & intangibles on the balance sheets of the many teck companies. Apple has very little goodwill as they have made few large aquisitions over the years. Cisco, Oracle, MSFT and Google carry much higher amounts of goodwill. All this leads me to view Apple as more like an IBM and not like an HP or DELL when it comes to stewardship of capital. If Apple continues to make good decisions in this reagard then it will receive a higher multiple from Mr. Market (eventually) - everything else being equal. I believe there is a reasonable chance that Apple may continue to return a large amount of cash to shareholders via dividends and large share repurchases; I see a scenario where Apple complete its $60 billion repurchase in 2014 and put another in its place. I think if the stock price stays low (perhaps below $500) then Apple will stay very agressive with the number of shares it repurchases. Further, this also gives me some confidence that netting out much of the cash when valuing Apple is the correct approach; looks to me that their PE is comfortably under 8. If any board members have come across any articles on how to factor net cash into valuations for tech I would appreciate it if you could post them. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 My,my,my. Long time Apple detractors are now singing its praises. Now people actually are beginning to admit they make better devices and even that there is a competitive advantage. The herd is beginning to smell something in the air. Did just one quarter of earnings cause that change? Where did the talk about disruption and commoditization go? Jeez, if you guys start cheer leading Apple, will I even have a role in this thread? :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Once we all become AAPL bulls, I predict ValueInv is going to self-destruct. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crackspread Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 While this may not mean much to you all and shouldn't mean much, I am from and live in a big oil city in Canada in which everyone has money. I recently went to a store to purchase a new phone and as it was very busy I got to see some of the purchasing habits of people, and everyone and their son and/or daughter wanted a samsung. I confirmed this with a few of the sales reps who told me that samsung leads the charge with the iphone and blackberry a close 2nd and third respectively. I'm a young profesional and while many people have an iphone, many people are starting to bash it and like the samsung better. I have noticed this for the past 6 months or so and, unfortunately, my age demographic is stupid enough to shell out money for a new bright and shiny smartphone. This might not mean much to any of you, but it definitely makes me keep an eye on Apple as I see trouble ahead. The company has been centered around marketing, and if the brand is taking a hit, there is trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I read an acticle on Friday that stated Samsung has passed Apple to become the most profitable phone maker... guess the guy writing the acticle was math challenged and the numbers are not accurate. One does have to give Samsung credit as they have been able to translate market share growth into profit growth. The next year will certainly be interesting for Samsung. If Apple launches a lower priced smartphone they may slow Samsung's growth in the mid priced segment. The Chinese manufacturers are growing share the fastest and they will likely slow Samsung's growth in the low end. The Apple Insider article has some top line info on Samsung for those who are interested: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/07/27/samsung-has-not-dethroned-apple-in-mobile-profits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Once we all become AAPL bulls, I predict ValueInv is going to self-destruct. ;D I will have no reason to get out of bed if that happens ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I must admit this was shocking. I mean weren't people saying that apple almost had a monopoly in tablets? Android seems to be coming on Strong here too. note the use of the term "white box" supplier here... http://9to5google.com/2013/07/29/report-android-tablet-shipments-dominate-ipad-in-q2-2013/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+9to5Google+%289to5+Google+-+Beyond+Good+and+Evil%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I must admit this was shocking. I mean weren't people saying that apple almost had a monopoly in tablets? Android seems to be coming on Strong here too. note the use of the term "white box" supplier here... http://9to5google.com/2013/07/29/report-android-tablet-shipments-dominate-ipad-in-q2-2013/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+9to5Google+%289to5+Google+-+Beyond+Good+and+Evil%29 Holy crap!! Sell your Apple stock, quickly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 In other news, KIA is kicking the shit out of BMW in < $12,000 sub-compact market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 ahh the ole "bmw" analogy from waaay back. :) oldie but a goodie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Maybe a fashion analogy would be more apt, since the components in tablets and clothing are commodities. Sie Germans can actually claim some differences in materials... Lessee, Ralph Lauren is to U.S. Polo Assn as AAPL is to ASUS? I dunno though...those "jewel led headlights" on the Audis remind me of the glowing apple... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 In other news, KIA is kicking the shit out of BMW in < $12,000 sub-compact market. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 ahh the ole "bmw" analogy from waaay back. :) oldie but a goodie. Just like the "Apple is losing marketshare" FUD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Maybe a fashion analogy would be more apt, since the components in tablets and clothing are commodities. Sie Germans can actually claim some differences in materials... Lessee, Ralph Lauren is to U.S. Polo Assn as AAPL is to ASUS? I dunno though...those "jewel led headlights" on the Audis remind me of the glowing apple... remember when apple was on top? then almost bankrupt? and now it's the best company "evehh"? I don't think there are any easy analogies to cars or clothes. because tech changes so damn fast. I don't see polo or bmw showing that kind of institutional volatility. but your models may be different.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 My,my,my. Long time Apple detractors are now singing its praises. Now people actually are beginning to admit they make better devices and even that there is a competitive advantage. The herd is beginning to smell something in the air. Did just one quarter of earnings cause that change? Where did the talk about disruption and commoditization go? Jeez, if you guys start cheer leading Apple, will I even have a role in this thread? :( I might be singing Apple's praises but I certainly haven't changed my tune. My thesis continues to be that Apple faces significant, talented competition. That competition is going to ruin their earnings. As my recent posts point out, I think that Apple has every advantage today when compared to offerings at similar prices. Even with every advantage, they are unable to capture the majority of the premium handset market. Those advantages will be removed over time as competitors seek ways to emulate Apple's success. These improved competitors are bad news for Apple, but what's worse is that once the playing field has evened out, the primary differentiator becomes price. Price wars ruin industry profits. The smartphone industry is not immune to a price war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 My,my,my. Long time Apple detractors are now singing its praises. Now people actually are beginning to admit they make better devices and even that there is a competitive advantage. The herd is beginning to smell something in the air. Did just one quarter of earnings cause that change? Where did the talk about disruption and commoditization go? Jeez, if you guys start cheer leading Apple, will I even have a role in this thread? :( I might be singing Apple's praises but I certainly haven't changed my tune. My thesis continues to be that Apple faces significant, talented competition. That competition is going to ruin their earnings. As my recent posts point out, I think that Apple has every advantage today when compared to offerings at similar prices. Even with every advantage, they are unable to capture the majority of the premium handset market. Those advantages will be removed over time as competitors seek ways to emulate Apple's success. These improved competitors are bad news for Apple, but what's worse is that once the playing field has evened out, the primary differentiator becomes price. Price wars ruin industry profits. The smartphone industry is not immune to a price war. So you're not buying AAPL like Wellmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Do value investors really buy stocks with 400 billion market cap and call it a value stock? I don't know, I always thought value stocks were things for the long term 10 bagger type investments. I don't think AAPL is going to double anytime soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 That was my initial impression stay away because who else will buy. However, if AAPL can make good capital allocation decisions such as repurchasing stock with a FCF yield of 15% and not make a dumb acquisition it may not matter that anyone else will buy as it will buy itself back versus others buying it. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 texual, Apple's size was a concern for me in the past. It stopped me from buying a couple of years ago (along with Google) when they last sold off in a big way. Moving forward, I am trying to apply a few lessons learned from the past few years; my results have been good but I try for a little better every year. I now pay less attention to macro (economy, stock market averages) and instead try and focus on finding great companies that are trading at low prices. I am not concerned with Apple's size as there is no reason their market cap cannot grow 50 or even 100% from here. Worlds Within the Margin, if Apple continues to demonstrate in the coming years that it is in IBM's league with how it manages capital allocation then we will all be very happy, including Steve Jobs. Apple's underlying business should show much higher revenue and profit growth than IBM in the coming years. If things play out this way, with Apple currently trading at an 11PE, it should be a great investment. Apple may repurchase 10% of shares outstanding over the next year. At the same time they will continue to grow revenue and they stand a good chance to once again start growing absolute profits (the key will be the Sept iphones and ipad annoucements and new category annoucements over the next 15 months). In this scenario earnings per share will jump and Mr Market will assign Apple a higher multiple. Peter Lynch loved companies who were growing earnings and at the same time getting a higher multiple from Mr. Market; the stock price jumps in a big way (fuelled by two factors). Add in the significant share repurchases and the jump in the share price will be even larger (a third factor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Sounds like the HTC One has been "successful": http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/30/htcs-hits-rock-bottom-first-ever-operating-loss-could-come-next-quarter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 strategy analytics: Apple loses 3pts of share for q2 yoy to Google's Android. 16.6% to 13.6% http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/07/30/apples-iphone-gained-share-in-key-markets-globally-during-june/?partner=yahootix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Wait, I thought it was the other way around??? :o http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324136204578639420880418016.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Yes, some may pick Samsung. I do not view them as being the leader. Should they displace Apple in the premium segment (where most of the margin is) and top Apple in customer satifaction and repurchase intent then I would pick Samsung. Time to pick Samsung? Samsung is selling about 1:1 when it comes to Galaxy S3/S4 vs. iPhone 4/4S/5. The profits on all of these phones are getting very close. And now the consumer satisfaction rankings have come out in Samsung's favor by a slight margin: http://www.engadget.com/2013/07/31/acsi-smartphone-satisfaction-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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