AAPL - Apple Inc.

[Guest valueInv]

Yes, some may pick Samsung. I do not view them as being the leader. Should they displace Apple in the premium segment (where most of the margin is) and top Apple in customer satifaction and repurchase intent then I would pick Samsung.

 

Time to pick Samsung?  Samsung is selling about 1:1 when it comes to Galaxy S3/S4 vs. iPhone 4/4S/5.  The profits on all of these phones are getting very close.  And now the consumer satisfaction rankings have come out in Samsung's favor by a slight margin:

 

http://www.engadget.com/2013/07/31/acsi-smartphone-satisfaction-2013/

 

Uh no. First, it was 1:1 this quarter because it was just released. The quarters before an imminent iPhone quarter are slow for Apple. You are comparing a peak to a trough.

 

Second, the S4 got bad reviews from most sites and seems to have hurt Samsung. I would check the methodology of the site.

 

Third,  there is little public information on the actual pricing or margins on the S4. However, that has not stopped people from jumping to conclusions.

 

In fact, Samsung probably lost a little marketshare to other Android vendors.

[Ross812]

Apple's newest innovation  ;)  :

 

http://i.imgur.com/9rgZzED.jpg

[Palantir]

"Ribbed for greater satisfaction".  ;)

[Palantir]

http://g.fool.com/editorial/images/62149/7-31-13-aapl-pic-2_large.jpg

 

I don't know if this picture is right....but a 7% gap over Apple doesn't sound very impressive considering they're not even on China's biggest carrier and are only selling on the high end market. If they get a deal with China Mobile and bring out the iPhone Mini.....they could erase that...

[VAL9000]

I don't know if this picture is right....but a 7% gap over Apple doesn't sound very impressive considering they're not even on China's biggest carrier and are only selling on the high end market. If they get a deal with China Mobile and bring out the iPhone Mini.....they could erase that...

 

The numbers are changing rapidly:

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130527000655

 

This shows 18.5% for Samsung vs. 9% Apple in Q1 2013.

 

Tim Cook on Chinese iPhone sales for Q2 2013:

 

Apple Inc this week said its revenue in Greater China, which also includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, slumped 43 percent to $4.65 billion from the previous quarter. That was also 14 percent lower from the year-ago quarter. Sales were weighed down by a sharp drop in revenues from Hong Kong. "It's not totally clear why that occurred," Cook said on a conference call with analysts.

 

Source:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/26/us-samsung-apple-china-insight-idUSBRE96P05F20130726

 

[Guest wellmont]

http://g.fool.com/editorial/images/62149/7-31-13-aapl-pic-2_large.jpg

 

I don't know if this picture is right....but a 7% gap over Apple doesn't sound very impressive considering they're not even on China's biggest carrier and are only selling on the high end market. If they get a deal with China Mobile and bring out the iPhone Mini.....they could erase that...

 

your numbers are quite dated and as such, are not correct. this article from an Esteemed Canadian source, summarizes how Samsung is "whipping" it's American rival in greater China.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/how-samsung-is-beating-apple-in-china/article13460991/?page=all

 

"Today, in the war for what both sides acknowledge is the 21st century’s most important market, Samsung is whipping its American rival. The South Korean giant now has a 19 per cent share of the $80-billion smartphone market in China, a market expected to surge to $117-billion by 2017, according to International Data Corp. That’s 10 percentage points ahead of Apple, which has fallen to 5th in terms of China market share."

[Palantir]

10% points isn't that much bigger than 7%. Especially when you count the fact that Apple is not even offered on China's largest carrier, sells only premium models, and has a much smaller retail footprint than Samsung.

 

So much for "whipping". Pick an apples to apples comparison please.

[Guest valueInv]

http://g.fool.com/editorial/images/62149/7-31-13-aapl-pic-2_large.jpg

 

I don't know if this picture is right....but a 7% gap over Apple doesn't sound very impressive considering they're not even on China's biggest carrier and are only selling on the high end market. If they get a deal with China Mobile and bring out the iPhone Mini.....they could erase that...

 

your numbers are quite dated and as such, are not correct. this article from an Esteemed Canadian source, summarizes how Samsung is "whipping" it's American rival in greater China.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/how-samsung-is-beating-apple-in-china/article13460991/?page=all

 

"Today, in the war for what both sides acknowledge is the 21st century’s most important market, Samsung is whipping its American rival. The South Korean giant now has a 19 per cent share of the $80-billion smartphone market in China, a market expected to surge to $117-billion by 2017, according to International Data Corp. That’s 10 percentage points ahead of Apple, which has fallen to 5th in terms of China market share."

 

You were whining about bad capital allocation right before Apple announced the biggest buyback in history. Now, you are whining about marketshare right before Apple releases their midrange iPhone.

 

Smart, very smart.  ;)

[Guest wellmont]

Apple is not even offered on China's largest carrier, sells only premium models, and has a much smaller retail footprint than Samsung.

 

good summary of why aapl is losing share in greater china.

[Palantir]

^ Pretty much all three of those points are going to be fixed in the near term.

[Guest wellmont]

Offering more for less is a time tested business strategy.

 

4:00 PM - bgr

 

All this has happened before and all this will happen again. The latest numbers from Canalys show that Android has now overtaken iOS as the world’s most-used tablet operating system, thanks largely to a flood of smaller devices put on the market by Samsung. Overall Canalys found that Samsung’s tablet shipments nearly quadrupled between the second quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2013, going from just 1.9 million last year to 7.4 million this year. Samsung wasn’t the only manufacturer to show a big increase in tablet shipments, however, as Amazon’s shipments grew from 425,000 in Q2 2012 to 1.55 million in Q2 2013 while Lenovo’s tablet shipments grew from 354,000 in Q2 2012 to 1.5 million in Q2 2013. Canalys also says that Apple’s tablet shipments have actually declined year-over-year, going from more than 17 million in the second quarter last year to 14.6 million in the second quarter this year.

[Guest valueInv]

Offering more for less is a time tested business strategy.

 

4:00 PM - bgr

 

All this has happened before and all this will happen again. The latest numbers from Canalys show that Android has now overtaken iOS as the world’s most-used tablet operating system, thanks largely to a flood of smaller devices put on the market by Samsung. Overall Canalys found that Samsung’s tablet shipments nearly quadrupled between the second quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2013, going from just 1.9 million last year to 7.4 million this year. Samsung wasn’t the only manufacturer to show a big increase in tablet shipments, however, as Amazon’s shipments grew from 425,000 in Q2 2012 to 1.55 million in Q2 2013 while Lenovo’s tablet shipments grew from 354,000 in Q2 2012 to 1.5 million in Q2 2013. Canalys also says that Apple’s tablet shipments have actually declined year-over-year, going from more than 17 million in the second quarter last year to 14.6 million in the second quarter this year.

 

Yeah, the released the new iPad Q2 last year and they didn't release anything this year. But you already knew that right?

 

Something tells me you won't want to talk about marketshare next year, just like you don't want to talk about capital allocation right now.

[Viking]

Wellmont, yes, ipad shipments have slowed a little more than the market expected (although they came in about where Apple thought they would) and competitors appear to be shipping lots of product. Apple estimated June quarter sales declined about 3% year over year; copied at the end of this comment is Oppenheimer's explanation. If Apple launches, as expected, a new regular ipad in Sept (thinner bezels and 30% lighter) and an updated mini (with retina) in Q4 I think their sales over the next year will do just fine.

 

The fastest growing part of the tablet category is the lowest priced segment and manufacturers leading in this segment will ship lots of units and earn little if any profits. Based solely on market share, it will appear like Apple is 'losing' which, of course, is silly.

 

I love all the focus on units shipped and market share (especially when we are getting just crazy high estimated numbers of crazy cheap products in markets like China). All customers are NOT created equal. Apple is clearly continuing to grow sales in the category it is targeting: the high end segment (both tablets and smartphones). Yes, Apple's quarterly results are lumpy due to timing around new product launches (we all know what Warren Buffett thinks about lumpy results). Are there 'watchouts' for Apple? Absolutely. Is the world coming to an end? Absolutely not.

 

Apples Oppenheimer: "Turning to iPad we sold 14.6 million iPads during the quarter compared to 17 million in the year ago quarter. The tough year-over-year comparison was driven by both the significant channel inventory increase and the first full quarter of the availability of the third generation iPad in the year ago quarter. We built 1.2 million units of iPad channel inventory in the June quarter last year whereas we reduced channel inventory by 700,000 units in the June quarter this year. Factoring in this 1.9 million unit channel inventory swing, iPad unit sell-through was down 3% year-over-year."

[Guest valueInv]

Offering more for less is a time tested business strategy.

 

4:00 PM - bgr

 

All this has happened before and all this will happen again. The latest numbers from Canalys show that Android has now overtaken iOS as the world’s most-used tablet operating system, thanks largely to a flood of smaller devices put on the market by Samsung. Overall Canalys found that Samsung’s tablet shipments nearly quadrupled between the second quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2013, going from just 1.9 million last year to 7.4 million this year. Samsung wasn’t the only manufacturer to show a big increase in tablet shipments, however, as Amazon’s shipments grew from 425,000 in Q2 2012 to 1.55 million in Q2 2013 while Lenovo’s tablet shipments grew from 354,000 in Q2 2012 to 1.5 million in Q2 2013. Canalys also says that Apple’s tablet shipments have actually declined year-over-year, going from more than 17 million in the second quarter last year to 14.6 million in the second quarter this year.

 

Here's some interesting reading for you:

 

http://www.fastcompany.com/3015090/where-are-they-now/busted-google-caught-fibbing-about-nexus-7-popularity

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/07/27/samsung-has-not-dethroned-apple-in-mobile-profits

 

[Palantir]

Offering more for less is a time tested business strategy.

 

 

...and you change the topic after I point out why the reasons for Apple not having market share should reverse....

[Guest wellmont]

Offering more for less is a time tested business strategy.

 

 

...and you change the topic after I point out why the reasons for Apple not having market share should reverse....

 

I will ask your permission to change the topic next time.  ::)

[txlaw]

Wow.  Take a look at DOJ's proposed remedy for AAPL antitrust violation:

http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2013/299776.htm

 

Under the department’s proposed remedy, Apple will be prohibited from again serving as a conduit of information among the conspiring publishers or from retaliating against publishers for refusing to sell e-books on agency terms. Apple will also be prohibited from entering into agreements with suppliers of e-books, music, movies, television shows or other content that are likely to increase the prices at which Apple’s competitor retailers may sell that content. To reset competition to the conditions that existed before the conspiracy, Apple must also for two years allow other e-book retailers like Amazon and Barnes & Noble to provide links from their e-book apps to their e-bookstores, allowing consumers who purchase and read e-books on their iPads and iPhones easily to compare Apple’s prices with those of its competitors.

 

I'm sure Apple will fight for a compromise position, but I wonder if this proposal started so far because of the way Apple handled the PR for the case.

[Guest valueInv]

Wow.  Take a look at DOJ's proposed remedy for AAPL antitrust violation:

http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2013/299776.htm

 

Under the department’s proposed remedy, Apple will be prohibited from again serving as a conduit of information among the conspiring publishers or from retaliating against publishers for refusing to sell e-books on agency terms. Apple will also be prohibited from entering into agreements with suppliers of e-books, music, movies, television shows or other content that are likely to increase the prices at which Apple’s competitor retailers may sell that content. To reset competition to the conditions that existed before the conspiracy, Apple must also for two years allow other e-book retailers like Amazon and Barnes & Noble to provide links from their e-book apps to their e-bookstores, allowing consumers who purchase and read e-books on their iPads and iPhones easily to compare Apple’s prices with those of its competitors.

 

I'm sure Apple will fight for a compromise position, but I wonder if this proposal started so far because of the way Apple handled the PR for the case.

 

or maybe not (read last paragraph):

 

http://www.shelf-awareness.com/issue.html?issue=2049#m20901

 

but then again:

http://venturebeat.com/2013/08/03/president-obama-lifts-ban-on-sale-of-some-iphones-ipads/

[Guest wellmont]

This is the first time that a presidential administration has vetoed a ban on a product ordered by the ITC, the Wall Street Journal reports.

 

it's good to have friends in High Places....

[Guest valueInv]

This is the first time that a presidential administration has vetoed a ban on a product ordered by the ITC, the Wall Street Journal reports.

 

it's good to have friends in High Places....

 

Apparently, Raegan lifted a ban against Samsung chips in the 80s.

[Guest valueInv]

Sweet, another buying opportunity coming up:

 

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/koITpBy_jBQ/

 

lol. think aapl bit off a little bit more than they could chew suing everybody in sight.  ::)

 

Guess not:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-03/apple-can-continue-selling-iphone-4-after-u-s-reprieve.html

 

However, a claim that Google bought a bit more than they could chew with Motorola is probably right ::)

 

The Android camp is learning that abusing FRAND patents has consequences.

[CorpRaider]

That was my initial impression stay away because who else will buy.  However, if AAPL can make good capital allocation decisions such as repurchasing stock with a FCF yield of 15% and not make a dumb acquisition it may not matter that anyone else will buy as it will buy itself back versus others buying it.

 

Packer

 

Exactly.  I don't give a shit about market share in china or elsewhere.  I hope they pass on the lower margin, potentially brand diluting opportunities, and continue to churn out the good stuff to the people who are locked into the ecosystem and continue to spew forth the cash.  If they need growth to satisfy the sell side they can but back freaking stock.

[Guest valueInv]

That was my initial impression stay away because who else will buy.  However, if AAPL can make good capital allocation decisions such as repurchasing stock with a FCF yield of 15% and not make a dumb acquisition it may not matter that anyone else will buy as it will buy itself back versus others buying it.

 

Packer

 

Exactly.  I don't give a shit about market share in china or elsewhere.  I hope they pass on the lower margin, potentially brand diluting opportunities, and continue to churn out the good stuff to the people who are locked into the ecosystem and continue to spew forth the cash.  If they need growth to satisfy the sell side they can but back freaking stock.

 

+100

[Guest valueInv]

Sweet, another buying opportunity coming up:

 

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/koITpBy_jBQ/

 

lol. think aapl bit off a little bit more than they could chew suing everybody in sight.  ::)

 

Guess not:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-03/apple-can-continue-selling-iphone-4-after-u-s-reprieve.html

 

However, a claim that Google bought a bit more than they could chew with Motorola is probably right ::)

 

The Android camp is learning that abusing FRAND patents has consequences.

 

Here's one more:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-09/apple-wins-patent-case-against-samsung-at-u-s-trade-agency.html

 

“With today’s decision, the ITC has joined courts around the world in Japan, Korea, Germany, Netherlands and California by standing up for innovation and rejecting Samsung’s blatant copying of Apple’s products,” Kristin Huguet, an Apple spokeswoman, said in an interview. “Protecting real innovation is what the patent system should be about.”

[Palantir]

 

Exactly.  I don't give a shit about market share in china or elsewhere.  I hope they pass on the lower margin, potentially brand diluting opportunities, and continue to churn out the good stuff to the people who are locked into the ecosystem and continue to spew forth the cash.  If they need growth to satisfy the sell side they can but back freaking stock.

 

+100

 

This is a great way to make a smaller and less valuable company. It's nice to claim that you're only going to focus on the high end, but that ignores the fact that Apple's success was driven originally by being THE dominant smartphone on the market. Now that there are other very good competitors that can make phones for different tastes, you can claim that Apple will only focus on the best, but let's be serious, it'll be a smaller and less valuable company if they do that.

 

My opinion - cheaper Iphone is a must.