Liberty Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 I live in NYC and I take trains everyday. I pay attention to every person using their phones. I think in the last year I have seen a sea change in habits. If you asked me last winter, I would have said New York is a iPhone town. Nobody here would ever give up their iPhone. Today I really think its getting closer to 50/50 for Androids, mainly Galaxy. My entire workplace is now on Galaxy Note II, or S4. Still have yet to see more than 2-3 Windows Phones in the wild. ;) Be careful about sample bias, though. While smartphone penetration was very high a year or two ago, it has still increased rapidly in the meantime. f.ex. Imagine a train car with 100 people. In 2012, 20 of them have iPhone and 10 have other types of smartphones. It looks like Apple is a clear winner. In 2013, 40 of them have iPhone and 40 have other types of smartphones. At a glance it looks like Apple is losing ground, but it's still a lot more iPhones in absolute numbers, and most of that growth of 30 non-iPhone might have been way downmarket where much smaller profits are made (the first people to buy smartphones were at the top of the market, not the bottom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 If carriers won't be cutting subsidies, then why are prepaid plans getting more and more popular every day? A big portion of the smartphone boom was simply a craze, the novelty will wear off and people will stop spending money on constant upgrading of the phone. You're just projecting the most recent past to be a permanent future projection, while ignoring that people will eventually look for cheaper options. As for the claim of iPhatigue non existent among iPhans http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1622635 Many more share his sentiments. I don't see why they'd make an iPhone with a much larger screen. It is a phone, not a phablet, and Jonathan Ive would rather have a seizure than design something that isn't thinner, lighter, and sleeker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Prepaid plans are getting popular because they are advertising the hell out of them on the radio in the paper on the trains. Also they are all in walmart and are convenient even using Verizons option. It still doesn't hold a candle to the bread and butter wireless contract business which I love dearly. I also assume this is the population that is decidedly NOT on contracts, or are not able to afford the two year agreements, so they pay month to month. Its a popular option when I was abroad, seemed like everyone did this. But in America I believe we hit 50% smartphone saturation over a year ago. It is likely the remainder are either going to adopt slowly or have no interest/cant afford to. And thats okay, prepaid exists to keep many avenues open. There are also budget carriers that are very popular here in NY like boost mobile or whatever. Jonathan Ive would rather have a seizure than design something that isn't thinner, lighter, and sleeker. You might be eating your words if down the road hes the one doing one of those cheesy videos where he is in tears talking about how the large iPhone is the next thing they always wanted to do, with the jazz in the background. Keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Right now I am interested in seeing the Samsung Galaxy Note III unveiled next month. I have no interest in owning one, but I like seeing people use them with that awesome screen. I hate android phones in general. My ideal phone would be a phablet Nokia Lumia, say like 5.5 inches or something similar to the Note, but running Windows Phone 8.1, comes with a stylus or pen device too. Also I liked the form factor of the Lumia 920, in yellow! Except that phone was massive and bulky. They've got to slim it down considerably for me to pay up for something like that. I like the Lumia 1020's camera. Goes to show that not just the software is all that matters, those little hardware advantages add up. No camera comes close to that monster. What phones are you guys using/looking forward to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 I seriously considered buying a Windows Phone instead of an iPhone. Those things are gorgeous. I decided to go with an iPhone this time, but next time....may well get a WP. If it's not dead by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texual Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 WP isn't going anywhere. Its BBY thats going to disappear at WP's expense. Anyways, the latest figures point to a global marketshare of a little above 6%. Not bad but I would like to see more handset sales at NOK and they've been delivering. As much of a fan of the WP as I am, I owned one on Verizon, the HTC 8x. And I had lusted after owning a WP device for the longest time. I returned it a few days later after realizing it needed a lot more apps, better quality apps and more time to be more than just tiles. It came off as cheeky. Its fun and flattering to see a new spin on a old concept (smartphones are mostly the same looking software). But after the lack of apps the next thing youll notice is the OS just seems very bare. I need more control and features instead of wide open black/white spaces that don't give me comfort knowing where I am in the system or how to find what I am looking for. iOS in comparison is very sandboxed in. You know where you are at all times, its super easy to get around and find what you are looking for. I would avoid WP until at least they release this supposed 8.1 update which will bring NOTIFICATION CENTER (Yeah, I know, can you believe it?) as well as ROTATION LOCK (Yes I am serious), along with many other enhancements that hopefully make it a more powerful operating system. I am not impressed with WP so far but I like the hardware Nokia keeps making. I got my iPhone 5 in December so I have a few months until the one year mark. It sucks but I may have to hold onto this phone for another full year before the contract allows me to upgrade. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 My phone died this week...so I'm in an awkward situation.....buy the iPhone 5 in one month and save $100 or buy it now and pay 650? I might just get a prepaid temp phone until then. Hopefully Tim has something good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I have a genuine question here for the Apple shareholders: What will Apple's best selling product be 10 years from now? And as a corollary to that, how certain are you of your answer? I'm not trying to prove a point, I'm just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I have a genuine question here for the Apple shareholders: What will Apple's best selling product be 10 years from now? And as a corollary to that, how certain are you of your answer? I'm not trying to prove a point, I'm just curious. Don't know. I don't know what Berkshire's largest holding 10 years from now will be either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I should rephrase: What will their product line look like by then? Primarily still smartphones and computers, or will a new product like the watch be a large segment of revenue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I should rephrase: What will their product line look like by then? Primarily still smartphones and computers, or will a new product like the watch be a large segment of revenue? Most likely compeletely different. You won't be able to predict it from here. In fact, even Cook won't be able to predict it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Personally I think that Smartphones will be number one source of income in 10 years. Its like a drug similar to PC's you got to have one. And I don't see that going away. I don't own a smartphone myself :D trying to be different. But think I will buy the iphone 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I have a genuine question here for the Apple shareholders: What will Apple's best selling product be 10 years from now? And as a corollary to that, how certain are you of your answer? I'm not trying to prove a point, I'm just curious. I have absolutely no idea. Given Apple ten years ago was just two years into the iPod, it is impossible to predict. But most generally, it will be some sort of physical device with embedded software and services Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I have a genuine question here for the Apple shareholders: What will Apple's best selling product be 10 years from now? And as a corollary to that, how certain are you of your answer? I'm not trying to prove a point, I'm just curious. Tablet - 40% chance of being the dominant product Phone - 40% Wearable - 10% Other - 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I have a genuine question here for the Apple shareholders: What will Apple's best selling product be 10 years from now? And as a corollary to that, how certain are you of your answer? I'm not trying to prove a point, I'm just curious. Tablet - 40% chance of being the dominant product Phone - 40% Wearable - 10% Other - 10% I don't see tablets ever selling more than phones. In fact I'd suspect that if phones get powerful enough, it will be the main computing device. Other screens may be used. Picture a thin 8 or 10inch touchscreen which is just a wireless display for the phone which remains in your pocket replacing tablets all together. Or a monitor and keyboard at a desk which just becomes the I/O interfaces of the phone of the person who is sitting at the desk. Also 10 years is a long time, so the other would have to be much larger. I'd guess: Phone - 40% Wearable - 30% Other -30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I have a hunch that on Sept 4th, you'll get a peek into Apple's competitive advantage: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-16/samsung-said-to-introduce-smartphone-like-wristwatch-next-month.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I would have predicted that Apple would make a car. But Tesla has done what Apple should have been doing. Oh well. There are many opportunities for expansion IMO. So as long as they don't take the "we'll only sell to the very upper end niche market". If Android users start spending money in greater amounts on Apps, then Apple's market share numbers will become much more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 This is a software company that gives you their software in shiny packages. It doesn't matter what package people are swooing over at the moment. I think their payments software system including passbook and its heirs will be bigger than paypal, american express, mastercard and visa combined. Just kidding...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Thanks gents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I would have predicted that Apple would make a car. But Tesla has done what Apple should have been doing. Oh well. There are many opportunities for expansion IMO. So as long as they don't take the "we'll only sell to the very upper end niche market". If Android users start spending money in greater amounts on Apps, then Apple's market share numbers will become much more important. A car is too huge and risky. They're taking baby steps in that area. There is still a lot more to do in CE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Remember how I said Apple sells simplicity? Here's how not to do it: http://gigaom.com/2013/08/16/why-youll-want-a-motorola-skip-to-securely-unlock-your-moto-x/ A simple way is a fingerprint sensor on the home button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 On the app numbers: http://www.eweek.com/mobile/android-users-lack-access-to-many-top-apps-built-for-ios-canalys/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 I installed iOS 7 beta 6 on my phone a couple days ago. Liking it quite a bit so far. Haven't ran into any bugs so far except for a couple small things with a couple 3rd party apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Woz on the movie and what really happened in the early days: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/wozniak-says-lot-of-things-wrong-with-jobs-movie-Mm1dnrz8QJuikP6iFdCJmQ.html Saw the movie yesterday, pretty badly done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Roger Mcnamee: comments on Dell, Apple, Blackberry & Twitter http://www.bloomberg.com/video/apple-hostage-to-old-business-model-mcnamee-says-wxj957f2QGmMYmJLnhc6pg.html I like his comment that growth is not linear, but rather in steps. Owns Apple personally and thinks the stock is cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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