Guest notorious546 Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 https://sumzero.com/headlines/business_services/V/331-visa-is-everything-you-want-a-stock-to-be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Surprise! Visa CEO resigned. http://www.wsj.com/articles/visa-ceo-charles-scharf-is-stepping-down-1476735288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Do you think there's something more behind this story? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Do you think there's something more behind this story? No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Visa fiscal Q4: http://investor.visa.com/news/news-details/2016/Visa-Inc-Reports-Strong-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx GAAP quarterly net income of $1.9 billion or $0.79 per share, including special items GAAP full-year 2016 net income was $6.0 billion or $2.48 per share, including special items Adjusted quarterly net income of $1.9 billion or $0.78 per share, excluding special items Adjusted full-year 2016 net income of $6.9 billion or $2.84 per share, excluding special items Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I keep stalking this for an entry but as it always seems the market never offers up a great price. Trying not to talk myself into a purchase but is paying a low to mid 20's multiple for a business growing mid teens that foolish? Definitely a great business at a fair price. It remains to be seen what China will do for the company but that is a nice kicker for paying a low 20's PE. I know block chain has been a concern for some but I just remember reading that V was testing their own blockchain technology. Is that still a viable threat?Anyone feel like throwing up some thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 "I know block chain has been a concern for some but I just remember reading that V was testing their own blockchain technology. Is that still a viable threat?Anyone feel like throwing up some thoughts?" i think blockchain will be incorporated by all payments processors in some fashion, though how deeply and thoroughly i have no clue. since V is also looking at it, my best guess is the V will be able to improve its operations by using it as well, and rely upon its massive scale to maintain its moat (which it shares with MC). i dont see blockchain as a killer app that renders V's moat penetrable. so i am long V on theory that it is a great business and the market will not give you a cheaper entry than now unless market as a whole nosedives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex.N.B Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I don't think that paying 20x for a business growing in the mid-teens is foolish.. companies like Starbucks are trading in the 30x area for the same growth...and I would argue greater risk. The multiple seems fair when I think about the sustainability of a business like Mastercard/Visa and growth opportunity... these companies build trust with their clients over time and it's hard for new entrants to compete I would think. Also what do you guys think are the major risks for these two companies here? (I think Amex is a little different so not including) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAiGuy Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I started buying V in february and then continued with MA thought the summer, both maybe ~7% below where they are now. It's worth keeping in mind that V and MA have little need for capital to fuel growth, and even less need for equity capital, which makes them much more valuable than they would otherwise be. Might also want to keep in mind that gross volumes keep up with inflation quite naturally, such that V revenue should match inflation ex-Growth without price hikes. I would say that the major risks are competition market by market, so things regulation in Russia and China, ChaseNet and Amex in the US, Paypal over the internet, etc. As for blockchain as a competitive threat, blockchain is a technology and technologies are not threats, business models are (roughly speaking). There's no reason that Visa couldn't implement blockchain and they would be able to leverage their preexisting network as a competitive advantage to spur the technologies use, much as they have been able to do so with tokenization. A different business model, which might involve a clever use of technology, could disintermediate Visa. For this to happen, one might presuppose the current intermediation between financial institutions is not valuable. Personally, I find this dubious, which means that I would expect a new entrant to intermediate between financial institutions, either by competing head-on or by taking a new niche à la PayPal. The alternate competitive threat is something that completely disintermediates financial institutions during transactions all together. I think this was the initial goal of bitcoin -- but that's a type of ideological naiveté. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Good points above. Im not smart enough to try to predict the technology that displaces V so at this point don't see the since in wasting time worrying about it. I guess I have a lot of faith in managements ability to recognize such threats and act accordingly as they have thus far. China looks promising but looks they have a big hill to climb with Union Pay having a near monopoly. That's a nice kicker going forward even if things marginally do well in China. With ~85% of the world still transacting in cash the runway looks long and with very little cap ex needs all that cash flow can be plowed back into share repurchases or acquisitions. At some point shareholders will see a huge increase in the div too but right now 14-18% compounded growth isnt too shabby either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 Im not smart enough to try to predict the technology that displaces V so at this point don't see the since in wasting time worrying about it. I guess I have a lot of faith in managements ability to recognize such threats and act accordingly as they have thus far. Me either... Thank God Musk is busy with electric cars & rockets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Well was watching for a place to add to existing holding and nibbled some today. Down at one point nearly 5%. Cant find any news of a new lawsuit or problem otherwise. Interest rates are rising. Maybe investors afraid that rates will decrease spending with Mastercard down a bunch too? Trading ~20ish flat on a forward PE basis. With interest rates rising maybe a fairer multiple is 17-18 PE? Im happy to buy down here if it continues to bleed. Good for buyback too as managment has been forced to buy a steadily upward marching stock over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Well was watching for a place to add to existing holding and nibbled some today. Down at one point nearly 5%. Cant find any news of a new lawsuit or problem otherwise. Interest rates are rising. Maybe investors afraid that rates will decrease spending with Mastercard down a bunch too? Trading ~20ish flat on a forward PE basis. With interest rates rising maybe a fairer multiple is 17-18 PE? Im happy to buy down here if it continues to bleed. Good for buyback too as managment has been forced to buy a steadily upward marching stock over the years. Looks like it might be down because of the general rotation into rate sensitive stocks and into more GDP sensitive stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Visa Q4: http://investor.visa.com/news/news-details/2017/Visa-Inc-Reports-Strong-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2017-Results/default.aspx GAAP net income of $2.1 billion or $0.86 per share, an increase of 7% and 7%, respectively Adjusted net income and earnings per share growth of 23% and 23%, respectively Net operating revenue of $4.5 billion, an increase of 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Fiscal Q2: http://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_downloads/2017/Q2/Visa-Inc.-Q2-2017-Financial-Results.pdf Fiscal Second Quarter 2017 Key Highlights: • GAAP net income of $430 million or $0.18 per share including special items related to the legal entity reorganization of Visa Europe • Adjusted net income of $2.1 billion or $0.86 per share excluding special items related to the legal entity reorganization of Visa Europe • Net operating revenue of $4.5 billion, an increase of 23%, driven by inclusion of Europe and continued growth in payments volume, cross-border volume and processed transactions • Payments volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 37% over the prior year at $1.7 trillion • Cross-border volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 132% or 11% inclusive of Europe in prior year results • Total Visa processed transactions were 26.3 billion, a 42% increase over the prior year, or 12% growth inclusive of Europe in prior year results • Newly-formed Visa Foundation funded with contribution of $192 million • Returned approximately $2.1 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends • Board authorized a new $5.0 billion class A common stock share repurchase program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 For those interested in the payment industry, here's a new presentation (361 pages!) by Value Seeker on Twitter: http://valueseekerinvestments.blogspot.ca/2017/05/payments-industry-overview-analysis-of.html Haven't had a chance to read it yet since it just came out, but he's a good analyst so I expect it to be quite informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted May 18, 2017 Share Posted May 18, 2017 For those interested in the payment industry, here's a new presentation (361 pages!) by Value Seeker on Twitter: http://valueseekerinvestments.blogspot.ca/2017/05/payments-industry-overview-analysis-of.html Haven't had a chance to read it yet since it just came out, but he's a good analyst so I expect it to be quite informative. Thank you. Have been searching for something like this for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 https://www.wsj.com/articles/visa-takes-war-on-cash-to-restaurants-1499853601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DW Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 https://www.wsj.com/articles/visa-takes-war-on-cash-to-restaurants-1499853601 As a Visa shareholder, I love the idea, but I can't see all that many merchants taking them up on the idea. I have to think some patrons would be turned off by the idea and might take their business elsewhere. A small establishment likely can't afford to lose too many customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Hey all: Not be able to take cash? How would that be a legally enforceable agreement? What if a customer comes in orders food and then offers to pay with cash? The restaurant won't take it and then calls the police? I would pay KASH to see how that plays out! How amused will the officers will be with that call. On USA currency it says "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private". Then, what about waiters & waitresses who prefer to be paid in cash? Will they go to competitors that still accept cash? I would also think that some restaurant owners LOVE to get cash...for a variety of reasons. I will almost NEVER pay with a credit card in restaurants, as I suspect a lot of the fraud problems I've had have resulted from these type of transactions. Then, what about erroneous network refusals? I've sometimes gone across state borders and my card is automatically declined. The "AI" networks detecting fraud are actually INCREDIBLY stupid. For example, I went to Sam's club in Toledo OH, which is maybe 15 minutes into Ohio and maybe 1 hour drive from Detroit. The network should know that it is: A). In close geographic proximity B). I used to live in Toledo C). I am a member of Sam's club They have all of this information available...but don't/can't figure it out. Thankfully, I had cash to back up my purchase. I think this won't work or will backfire for Visa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/16/business/china-cash-smartphone-payments.html?_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 I went to Peru in June. Peru is one of the most-cash countries in the world. Interestingly, some shops may not take Visa. Some may not take MC. I never asked about Amex. I saw a lot of UnionPay ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_UnionPay ) signs though. So V/MA may have won developed countries ex-China. But developing countries - especially touristy ones - are quite open to UnionPay and may end up being a battleground. Aside: before reading UnionPay wiki article I did not know about DFS-UnionPay partnership. I wonder how much Discover benefits from it and whether this makes Discover from also-ran into a valuable acquisition target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 I went to Peru in June. Peru is one of the most-cash countries in the world. Interestingly, some shops may not take Visa. Some may not take MC. I never asked about Amex. I saw a lot of UnionPay ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_UnionPay ) signs though. So V/MA may have won developed countries ex-China. But developing countries - especially touristy ones - are quite open to UnionPay and may end up being a battleground. Aside: before reading UnionPay wiki article I did not know about DFS-UnionPay partnership. I wonder how much Discover benefits from it and whether this makes Discover from also-ran into a valuable acquisition target. Did you do Machu Picchu? There should be a travel thread (gotta be a lot of globe trotters with stories & photos...) The DFS angle might be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Fiscal Q3: http://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_financials/2017/Q3/Visa-Inc.-Q3-2017-Financial-Results-Conference-Call-Presentation.pdf http://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_financials/2017/Q3/Visa-Inc.-Q3-2017-Financial-Results.pdf Fiscal Third Quarter 2017 Key Highlights: • GAAP net income of $2.1 billion or $0.86 per share • Net operating revenue of $4.6 billion, an increase of 26%, driven by inclusion of Europe and continued growth in payments volume, cross-border volume and processed transactions • Payments volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 38% over the prior year at $1.9 trillion • Cross-border volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 147% or 11% inclusive of Europe in prior year results • Total Visa processed transactions were 28.5 billion, a 44% increase over the prior year, or 13% growth inclusive of Europe in prior year results • Returned approximately $2.1 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atbed Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Fiscal Q3: http://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_financials/2017/Q3/Visa-Inc.-Q3-2017-Financial-Results-Conference-Call-Presentation.pdf http://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_financials/2017/Q3/Visa-Inc.-Q3-2017-Financial-Results.pdf Fiscal Third Quarter 2017 Key Highlights: • GAAP net income of $2.1 billion or $0.86 per share • Net operating revenue of $4.6 billion, an increase of 26%, driven by inclusion of Europe and continued growth in payments volume, cross-border volume and processed transactions • Payments volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 38% over the prior year at $1.9 trillion • Cross-border volume growth, on a constant dollar basis, was 147% or 11% inclusive of Europe in prior year results • Total Visa processed transactions were 28.5 billion, a 44% increase over the prior year, or 13% growth inclusive of Europe in prior year results • Returned approximately $2.1 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends More China news. Could be less than 2 years out Edit: Wrong link was pasted. See post below. Thanks Liberty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now