Guest valueInv Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Some promising moves by Nokia: http://venturebeat.com/2012/03/15/nokias-design-head-tablet http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/28/feast-your-eyes-on-the-first-image-of-atts-white-lumia-900 http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57405796-94/at-t-promises-biggest-launch-ever-for-lumia-900/ http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-28/nokia-recruits-vespa-rider-in-race-against-androids-in-china http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/23/nokia-could-pay-25-million-to-put-the-lumia-900-in-the-hands-of-att-sales-reps/ This is getting quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Thought I would put this up for discussion. I have no position in this stock and have no intent to open one in the near term. The operating earnings aren't all that fantastic either: year revenue earning 2007 51.0B 7.9B 2008 50.5B 5.0B 2009 41.0B 1.2B 2010 42.4B 2.0B 2011 38.7B -1.1B Now the stock is going to close to net cash on the balance sheet, if the company turns around with windows phones, it could be a great value proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seshnath Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thought I would put this up for discussion. I have no position in this stock and have no intent to open one in the near term. The operating earnings aren't all that fantastic either: year revenue earning 2007 51.0B 7.9B 2008 50.5B 5.0B 2009 41.0B 1.2B 2010 42.4B 2.0B 2011 38.7B -1.1B Now the stock is going to close to net cash on the balance sheet, if the company turns around with windows phones, it could be a great value proposition. I am glad I found something where we are on the same page, finally :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infinitee00 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Nokia according to it's latest SEC filing has ~$6.4B in net cash. Also if recent patent sales are considered their patent portfolio may well be worth more than a few billion. Assuming they are worth less than 1/2 per patent of what google paid for motorola mobility patents (http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2011/08/16/will-googles-motorola-mobility-deal-spur-nokia-rim-buys/), they may be worth around $3B. So right now we are getting the rest of the business for a conservative value of ~$5.5B. Management has claimed that they plan to reduce $1.3B (eur. 1B) in Op. ex from the devices business and $1.3B from the nokia siemens network(http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120416-706917.html) . If they are successful and manage to earn upwards of $1B FCF, and also if Nokia/Windows7 phone take off then we may very well see a turnaround in the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 If I was going to bet on a mobile company making it, I would take Nokia over RIM any day. Nokia have the behemoth of Microsoft behind them, and I seriously doubt they are going to allow Apple and Google take control of the mobile space without a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seshnath Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Seshnath - don't think we would have much disagreement if we talked face to face. I dont think you are defending the Indian government officials. Across the internet, several things don't translate 1:1. I have read several religious scriptures, and here is one from the Gita. ( which is great by the way ). He who can see inaction in action, and action in inaction, is the wisest among men. He is a saint, even though he still acts. The wise call him a sage, for whatever he undertakes is free from the motive of desire, and his deeds are purified by the fire of Wisdom. Having surrendered all claim to the results of his actions, always contented and independent, in reality he does nothing, even though he is apparently acting. Expecting nothing, his mind and personality controlled, without greed, doing bodily actions only; though he acts, yet he remains untainted. Content with what comes to him without effort of his own, mounting above the pairs of opposites, free from envy, his mind balanced both in success and failure; though he acts, yet the consequences do not bind him. Shalab - no doubt, hence the smiley face. I think I know the sanskrit version of that verse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 What am I missing? It seems that Nokia, at this point, is just too darned cheap! What good reason SHOULDN'T Microsoft buy Nokia? http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/06/25/nokia-hits-16-year-low-should-microsoft-snap-it-up/ A few data points to consider: Nokia is now valued at almost exactly what they paid for the Navteq mapping business in 2007. (They bought it for $8.1 billion.) Microsoft paid $8.5 billion for Skype, more than the current market cap of Nokia. Google paid $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility, which has far lower market share in the mobile phone market than Nokia. Nokia at the end of the first quarter had about $6 billion in net cash… …which means the company’s patents and ongoing business are carrying a valuation of just $2.2 billion. HP paid $1.2 billion for Palm. Just sayin’. Nokia has by its own calculation 10,000 “patent families.” Microsoft recently paid $1 billion for more than 800 patents from AOL. If Microsoft were to buy Nokia, they could draw down some of their massive pile of overseas cash, which can’t be used for U.S. acquisitions or to pay dividends or buy back stock without incurring a huge U.S. tax liability. (That was one of the attractions of the Skype deal.) The January 2014 $1 call LEAPS are going for $1.38. Are the only two options for Nokia bankruptcy or being bought for less than $2.38 in the next 18 months? Has anyone here looked at the bonds lately? http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=nok I know I am missing something but I can't figure what it would be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSArbitrage Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I wrote in another thread that MSFT needs to take out NOK at these prices; it's a steal for them. But MSFT has an atrocious acquisition record, which leads me to believe that they won't act until NOK is 3-4x the price. They LOVE to top-tick everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 i was looking at this today as well, getting very very cheap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 anyone looking at this? its crazy cheap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 anyone looking at this? its crazy cheap I capitulated and bought today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I'm not buying just yet, but seems Aswath Damodaran is: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2012/06/contrarian-investing-going-against-flow.html He's interested in the options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If you go back to the top of the thread, Nokia's been cheap when it was at $7, $5, $3, and now it's trading at $2 and change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I wonder if it'll drop more if they cut the dividend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundball100 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I wonder if it'll drop more if they cut the dividend. At this point, that might be one of the things that causes it to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I wrote in another thread that MSFT needs to take out NOK at these prices; it's a steal for them. But MSFT has an atrocious acquisition record, which leads me to believe that they won't act until NOK is 3-4x the price. They LOVE to top-tick everything. MSFT's mobile strategy is a bit schizophrenic right now. They have made statements to the press that they won't make their own phones (while they make their own tablets). They have also announced some smartphone partners for the Windows 8 release, so they probably don't want to piss them off. They screwed Nokia over by making current Windows 7 phones unupgradeable to Windows 8. This means that Nokia's current Lumia line and inventory can only be upgraded to 7.8. This could have a big negative impact on Nokia. There are also rumors that MSFT looked at Nokia's books in December and decided not to proceed any further. It would make sense for them to buy Nok and use it to bring good hardware to market for both phones and tablets. But the signs seem to be pointing in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodnub Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I'm not buying just yet, but seems Aswath Damodaran is: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2012/06/contrarian-investing-going-against-flow.html He's interested in the options. In the comments section Aswath is asked about this and he clarifies: Anonymous said... did you mean that investing in NOKIA shares it is like an out of the money options trade or literally to buy the NOKIA out of the money options (to whom who interested)? June 18, 2012 5:13 AM Aswath Damodaran said... I meant that buying Nokia itself is like buying a long term, out of the money option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Finnish mobile expert makes a detailed case that Elop is worst CEO ever: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/the-sun-tzu-of-nokisoftian-microkia-mirror-mirror-on-the-wall-whose-the-baddest-of-them-all-waterloo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodnub Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Finnish mobile expert makes a detailed case that Elop is worst CEO ever: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/the-sun-tzu-of-nokisoftian-microkia-mirror-mirror-on-the-wall-whose-the-baddest-of-them-all-waterloo.html interesting read. I remember when Elop announced dropping Symbian and adopting windows phone only strategy... I seriously wondered if he was acting as a sleeper agent for Microsoft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Didnt realize Nokia was so strong pre Elop. I always wondered why they didn't go Android or sync an agreement with them.... What I learned from all of this is damn dont mess with Finland, and B - a US centered approach to looking at Tech or anything can be quite disastrous and misleading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Have to say that I didn't read the complete blogpost, but seems to me that it's a bit easy to say that Elop created Nokia''s problems just because profitability/marketshare started to drop not long after he joined as CEO. You do have to realize that the competitive landscape wrt smartphones changed significantly the last years, and it's questionable how much a better CEO could have done. Iphone & Android were unstopppable forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 would anyone buy NOK at $1? you can sell jan 14 puts of 1.5 for 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those are the puts with a 2$ strike, the 1.5 trade at 26 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 no i still see it, its now 49cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 jan 13 is at 25c jan 14 is at 49c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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