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NOK - Nokia


Guest misterstockwell

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  • 3 weeks later...
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Francis Chou adds...(sorry if posted elsewhere):

 

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-08/latest-picks-from-francis-chou-usg-nok-sells-gps.aspx?storyid=164779

 

Francis Chou added to his holdings in Nokia Corporation (adr) by 16666.7%. His purchase prices were between $2.14 and $5.47, with an estimated average price of $3.29. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 3.18%. His holdings were 5,030,000 shares as of 06/30/2012. Nokia is the world leader in mobile communications. Nokia Corporation (adr) has a market cap of $10.34 billion; its shares were traded at around $2.57 with and P/S ratio of 0.2. The dividend yield of Nokia Corporation (adr) stocks is 6.4%.

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Guest valueInv
  • 2 weeks later...

 

This was a bad PR event, but ultimately NOK will live and die on whether Win 8 is a success on the phone, and on whether other vendors offer up more sought after Win 8 phone devices.

 

If I were a NOK shareholder, I'd be worried that a Samsung or other hardware manufacturer will steal all the sales I was hoping to get from partnering with MSFT.  The value from Win 8 seems to accrue to MSFT, not NOK, since NOK is not a low-cost manufacturer (or is it?).  Remember how the original Lumia was suppose to be the end of the smart phone beta test?  And then MSFT made the old Lumia obsolete by planning to roll out Win 8 phones less than a year later?

 

Having said all the above, I have yet to see anyone talking about doing a break-up analysis of NOK, which might show that it is an attractive opportunity at this time.

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

nokia's products were terrible. in fact they were so bad, CEO announced to the world he would no longer make them. And instead he would enlist an outside company to help him do what his company could not-make a worthwhile mobile OS. Elop's new strategy would be to try to make products that consumers would spend money on. It looks like he may finally have one of those in the win 8 lumia.

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  • 4 weeks later...

 

I don't agree with tech crunch on this. Not everyone chooses their phone based on wireless carriers. The carrier may be important to some but I don't think it will be a deal breaker as it is made out to be (I have been on At&T for the last 9 years and lot of people I know are on AT&T and do not have any plans on switching).

 

I am not sure why people are making such a big deal about the exclusive deal with AT&T. Yes, AT&T may have botched their launch of Lumia 900 and maybe it's not an ideal situation. Adding Verizon would have been great, given that it is one of the largest carriers, but I refuse to believe that the Lumia would flop just because of that. If I remember correctly Apple signed an exclusive deal with AT&T when the iphone was a launched, (although I could be wrong on that), but that didn't slow it adoption. Given the low expectations, even a few million smartphones sold/quarter would be considered a success for Nokia/Lumia - something it should be able to pull off without Verizon.

 

If Lumia succeeds or fails, it would be on it's own merits/demerits and also depending on how many people switch to the Windows eco-system. The carrier would not be the primary reason for its failure

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps

The big problem is when MSFT introduces its own phone.

 

I doubt it. unless they can improve from surface, kin, and zune.

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Guest valueInv

not sure. they might be like apple. not have enough supply. :)

Appel's problems stem from manufacturing difficulties. I don't see anything in the Lumias that could be causing that. Most likely, they are being conservative to avoid having to write off inventory.

 

In any case, it is a much easier to solve supply issues than demand issues. A far more encouraging sign.

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Guest valueInv

The big problem is when MSFT introduces its own phone.

 

I doubt it. unless they can improve from surface, kin, and zune.

 

The Surface shows that they can produce competitive hardware (most of the problems stemmed from software). The real issue is MSFT is going to make life hard for hardware partners if they decide to introduce their own phone. Right now, they need partners, so they play nice. If they manage to get traction with their own devices, the partners will be quietly choked.

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

not sure. they might be like apple. not have enough supply. :)

Appel's problems stem from manufacturing difficulties. I don't see anything in the Lumias that could be causing that. Most likely, they are being conservative to avoid having to write off inventory.

 

In any case, it is a much easier to solve supply issues than demand issues. A far more encouraging sign.

 

rimm's new phones will sell well initially just like NOK. it's the hard core customers pent up demand. the thing to watch is follow through and momentum. NOK still has hard core fans and that might be what we are seeing.

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

The big problem is when MSFT introduces its own phone.

 

I doubt it. unless they can improve from surface, kin, and zune.

 

The Surface shows that they can produce competitive hardware (most of the problems stemmed from software). The real issue is MSFT is going to make life hard for hardware partners if they decide to introduce their own phone. Right now, they need partners, so they play nice. If they manage to get traction with their own devices, the partners will be quietly choked.

 

I agree. msft has studied the margin potenital on apple's hardware. msft has no loyalty to the oems. in fact that model is breaking down on the PC side and not doing too well on the phone side yet.

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Guest valueInv

not sure. they might be like apple. not have enough supply. :)

Appel's problems stem from manufacturing difficulties. I don't see anything in the Lumias that could be causing that. Most likely, they are being conservative to avoid having to write off inventory.

 

In any case, it is a much easier to solve supply issues than demand issues. A far more encouraging sign.

 

rimm's new phones will sell well initially just like NOK. it's the hard core customers pent up demand. the thing to watch is follow through and momentum. NOK still has hard core fans and that might be what we are seeing.

But these are not initial sales of Nokia. In fact, the initial sales of Windows 7 phones were lackluster. These are the sales of the second generation Lumias. The big difference I see (at least in the US) is some big advertising money from both MSFT and operators pouring into Windows 8. That seems to have moved the needle at least a little.

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Guest rimm_never_sleeps

I consider the NOK win8 phones almost a complete reboot of the product considering that msft EOL nok first windows 7 devices. those were essentially devices to get NOK up to speed on how to make windows phones imo.

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