fareastwarriors Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Citigroup Seen as Top Big Bank for 2014 Credit Suisse sees the potential for increased capital return. Credit Suisse We remain cautiously optimistic about the large-cap banking sector heading into 2014. Capital positioning is strong as banks have repositioned balance sheets and materially reduced risk. Credit quality also remains strong given tightened underwriting over the last several years. While we are optimistic about the large banks positioning and risk reduction, it is somewhat tempered by the revenue outlook, which could remain challenging given low rates, relatively sluggish loan growth and declining mortgage-banking activity. That said, we expect the large banks to grind out 10% earnings-per-share growth, on average, in 2014 driven by improved fee income and some relief in terms of elevated expense levels. Our top pick in 2014 is Citigroup (ticker: C). The core earnings profile has been clearly defined, and we forecast an improvement in earnings quality over the next three years driven by pretax preprovision earnings growth, and further supported by declining losses in Citi Holdings. We see a positive catalyst for Citigroup shares in the potential for increased capital return in 2014. We are also recommending JPMorgan Chase (JPM) due to its competitive positioning, ability to generate better-than-average returns on tangible equity (ROTEs) and positioning to return capital. We see a disconnect between JPMorgan shares trading at 9.3 times 2015 estimated EPS versus Bank of America (BAC) shares trading at 11.0 times and our forecasts that JPMorgan will generate a 15% ROTE in 2014 -- leading large-bank peers. Expense control and capital return are key themes for 2014. The most obvious lever for banks to pull in a more challenged revenue environment will be expenses. Efficiency ratios are running above optimal levels given increased costs associated with the regulatory environment, higher operational costs, litigation, mortgage-related and other real estate owned (OREO) expenses. Another lever and potential near-term catalyst is increased capital deployment in 2014 with expectations that payouts improve modestly year-over-year. We are downgrading shares of U.S. Bancorp (USB) to Neutral (from Outperform) with a price target of $44. We have an Outperform rating on Citigroup and JPMorgan, and Neutral ratings on Bank of America, PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo (WFC). -- Moshe Orenbuch -- Jill Glaser Shea http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904246304579308953733598102.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-inc-announces-offers-purchase-160100528.html Citigroup Inc. Announces Offers to Purchase up to $285 Million Amount of Notes Citi continues to improve their funding model by calling $285 million out of the $2B callable notes outstanding. This is amazing since management is putting a larger focus on deposits instead of wholesale funding and LT debt. Thanks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Now it's trading 9.2x this years earnings and 7.8 next years based on analyst estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ring-Fencing EM Risks; Severe Case Appears Baked In; Reit OW EvercoreEvercorePartnersInc_Ring-FencingEMRisksSevereCaseAppearsBakedInReitOW_Feb_03_2014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Sleeping Easier in the Citi With concerns over emerging markets keeping many investors up at night, shares of the bank that "never sleeps" have taken a beating. Investors shouldn't toss and turn too much, though. Citigroup has fallen nearly 8% so far this year, while J.P. Morgan Chase is down less than 4%. Highlighting the division between banks with an international bent and those more exposed to the U.S. economy and housing, Wells Fargo is off about 2% and Bank of America is up more than 6%. In one sense, this is understandable. Citi has become a proxy for international, and particularly emerging-market, concerns. That is because it is the most globally oriented of the big U.S. banks. International markets generated roughly 56% of Citi's core revenues compared with around 25% at J.P. Morgan Chase, according to Bernstein Research. And much of Citi's international business is in the emerging markets, which contributed 42% of revenue in 2013 and around 55% of net income, Evercore estimates. Over a third of Citi's loans are in emerging markets. But just because Citi is big in emerging markets doesn't necessarily mean it has a lot of exposure to the most troubled ones. So, barring contagion that leads to a systemic event, the impact could be more muted than many investors fear. Let's talk Turkey. This is one mess Citi should be able to sit out. It exited from consumer banking there last year. Evercore estimates the corporate banking business still ongoing was responsible for just 0.3% of Citi's net income last year. Swing around the globe to Asia. Here, Citi should be able to sidestep troubles in Indonesia and Thailand. While Citi is one of the largest foreign banks in each, the earnings they produce aren't significant to overall performance. China, of course, matters. Citi has $4.7 billion in consumer loans there. If the broad mix of consumer credit to corporate loans in Citi's international book holds for China, the bank's corporate credit exposure is probably slightly larger than that. Evercore estimates China produced 2.5% of Citi's net income. But while growth in China has been slowing, and there are concerns about its financial system, the Chinese government likely has the wherewithal to contain problems for some time. In Latin America, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela are the main problems. Citi's credit exposure to Venezuela and Argentina are small enough that the bank doesn't break them out. Brazil is more significant, producing 3% of Citi's net income, according to Evercore. As with China, a full-blown meltdown in Brazil would hit Citi's bottom line and inflict large credit losses. But problems would have to be far larger than they are today. Citi's biggest emerging-market exposure is to Mexico, with $31.3 billion in consumer loans, and South Korea, with $23.9 billion in consumer loans. Neither country shows up on the 2014 danger lists of most emerging-market bears, though. On the investment-banking side, recent history might provide some comfort. The onset of taper talk caused disruption in many important emerging-market currencies in the third quarter of 2013. Investors then feared the bank's currency-trading operations could take a bit hit. That didn't happen; in fact, it was Goldman Sachs GS +0.33% that got caught offsides. Citi shares, which started the year trading around tangible book value, are now at an about 13% discount, the only one of the big U.S. banks trading below tangible book. So long as the emerging-markets storm doesn't turn into a typhoon, the stock shouldn't be so far underwater. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304450904579366860926353386?mod=WSJ_Heard_LEFTTopNews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks for posting! Still can't find a press release from the fed on ccar date. Last year they published on jan 28th. Hopefully it comes up on feb 12th with citi's credit Suisse call. I'm still perplexed why it isn't around 53-55. Ccar should get it there assuming macro continues to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Improvements continue... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-briefing-com-055139997.html#c 10:01 am Citigroup announces offers to purchase three series of outstanding notes © : Co announced the commencement of offers to purchase for cash select notes (5.850% Notes due 2013; 5.875% Notes due 2037; 6.875% Notes due 2038) that have an aggregate principal amount outstanding of ~$1.5 billion as of February 13, 2014. These Offers, currently totaling up to U.S. $230,000,000, are consistent with Citigroup's liability management strategy, and reflect its ongoing efforts to enhance the efficiency of its funding and capital structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 And it keeps declining. Trading below 10x earnings on after tax basis. They should be able to use 3 billion up from 2.4 last year from data. Trading 8.25 with the 3 billion from savings from taxes this year. 6.9x earnings assuming they can use 4 billion from dta next year(I think is reasonable with analysts estimating they will earn almost 18 billion next year. Economy is getting better, market up and cities down. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Soros Fund agrees: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/02/14/soros-fund-purchases-stakes-in-jp-morgan-citi/?mod=yahoo_hs I like it when a great macro investor thinks the price is right given the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These are the situations I look forward to!!! :-). That's why we are value investors... Tks, S Economy is getting better, market up and cities down. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If it's still below 55 after ccar is approved then I'm going to read some Kafka as I'm sure I'll feel like I'm turning into an insect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I agree it's a good situation if one has more cash to buy at lower prices. I'm all in, for better or worse, although I'll have a tad more cash come in late Feb. I was probably too aggressive but it looks like if one is rational the bids will come in after the dividend and stock buyback. I'm taking a risk economy doesn't go to help in the next figure weeks, which isn't small, but the chances look good based on improving news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I wish the warrants offered more attractive terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moustachio Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Look at a one year chart comparing BAC to C. They were trading pretty much in lockstep until a few months ago. C might be a very good value here, I might have to pick up some LEAPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Citigroup Gives CEO 23% Pay Raise Total Pay Package in Line With Bank of America, Below Other Competitors http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304275304579395503096234152?mod=WSJ_Markets_LEFTTopStories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 More capital can be returned to shareholders? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/citigroup-cuts-capital-ratio-target-to-9-5-.html?cmpid=yhoo Citigroup Inc. © lowered its target for the firm’s capital ratio after the Federal Reserve made the bank increase the portion of its equity that supports operational risks. Citigroup cut its target Basel III Tier 1 common capital ratio to 9.5 percent from 10 percent, the New York-based company said today in a statement. The ratio’s current level stands at 10.1 percent, and the bank will still be above required minimums for common capital as well as the proposed supplementary leverage ratio, Citigroup said. The ratios are designed to ensure banks have a big enough cushion to withstand losses. The Fed and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said today eight of the biggest bank holding companies could use the advanced approach starting in the second quarter, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. (MS) Bank of America Corp. (BAC), ranked second by assets in the U.S., and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), the biggest home lender, weren’t included among the approvals. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/275f93c0-9b1d-11e3-b0d0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2tzzhpE6j Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citigroup are among the banks that have successfully completed trial runs using their own models to assess risk and capital requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 If it's still below 55 after ccar is approved then I'm going to read some Kafka as I'm sure I'll feel like I'm turning into an insect. A bull call spread jan 2015 52.50/55 is available around 0.85. If the stock goes over 55 between now and then it s a 2.9x trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The Fed and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said today eight of the biggest bank holding companies could use the advanced approach starting in the second quarter, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. (MS) Bank of America Corp. (BAC), ranked second by assets in the U.S., and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), the biggest home lender, weren’t included among the approvals. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/275f93c0-9b1d-11e3-b0d0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2tzzhpE6j Bank of America just barely exceeds 9% ratio for threshold B3 under the "standardized" approach, but is at almost 10% under the "advanced" approach. So it's significant that they are not being allowed to use the "advanced" approach. BAC therefore effectively has no excess capital to return right now. They only barely meet their self-imposed 9% minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Great news. Thanks, zippy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Corbat Sees No Drawback in Boring Citigroup Up 34% http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/corbat-sees-no-drawback-in-boring-citigroup-up-34-.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Citigroup Affiliate’s Troubles Multiply as Money-Laundering Subpoenas Follow Fraud http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/citigroup-discloses-money-laundering-subpoenas/?ref=international Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://www.thestreet.com/story/12489651/1/citigroup-stress-tests-and-shareholder-gravy.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO "Vries expects Citi to be approved to raise the quarterly dividend to 15 cents and to receive Federal Reserve approval for $7.5 billion in share buybacks through the first quarter of 2015, which "is well above consensus (which we believe is ~$0.10 of dividend and ~$4-5 bn of share buyback)," he wrote." Sounds good to me! 56 a share by March 26th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 2 Senior Citigroup Executives Retiring http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/06/2-senior-citigroup-executives-retiring/?_php=true&_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Wall%20Street&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body&_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Banamex Fraud Exposes Challenges for Citi in Mexico http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/banamex-fraud-exposes-challenges-for-citi-in-mexico/?_php=true&_type=blogs&ref=international&_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Citigroup so far reminds me of buffetts buy of Salomon. It was a good security buy because of it being cheap but a bad investment. I'm very confused why bac trades at 13.2x this year earnings and citi trades at 9.7. I'll continue to hold it but, in retrospect, I should have just continued to hold bac. I've been completely wrong so far on citi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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