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gordoffh

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John, just watching the Fed release live. The Fed remains quote hawkish which the market was not prepared for. Looks like interest rates are headed higher and this is very good news for the US banks (which are moving higher). I also shifted a little of my C into BAC (for my bank holdings I am now 66% C and 33% BAC). If rates move higher I expect BAC to outperform.

 

Crazy day, Viking! [ : - ) ]

 

A few points I noticed here, from the Q&A with Ms. Yellen : FED will stay flexible going forward, trying not to kill US growth by its actions. The main point here is, like referred to by you, Viking, that rate hikes will come, the primary parameter to adjust on going forward is the FED balance sheet shriking, by not refinancing bonds on balance sheet redeemed [if possible].

 

So in short, we now have a much, much more firm investment thesis for C [and the three other major US banks] going forward than when we discussed this in this topic pre CCAR annoucements in June, with regard to these banks net interest income going forward, the next few years. That is to me very, very important.

 

I certainly understand that you have rolled a bit of C into BAC. It makes perfect sense to me. For me, I'll just let the 700 million ordinary BAC shares now held by Berkshire do their work.

 

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I have been totally stunned about what has been going on, on my monitors [set up to give me numbers in DKK], today, the last two hours before NYSE closing, especially from the FED session started 1½ hours before NYSE closing.

 

It took me a bit time to find out.

 

With Ms. Yellen's message of today, she also talked up the USD compared to EUR, and thereby also compared to my functional currency DKK.

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John, the news for the big US banks just keeps getting better. We do not NEED higher interest rates for the US banks to be a solid investment moving forward. Higher interest rates just makes the investment that much better (higher returns).

 

I also expect a few more tailwinds to play out favourably in the next 6 months:

1.) regulatory (CCAR) relief: C hinted there is a chance something may get announced by the end of Oct; if not, then something for sure in 2018.

2.) US infrastructure: at some point the US government is going to pass some legislation that will be stimulative to the US economy.

3.) US tax cuts: I also expect something to happen here (although this will benefit C less given their DTA - a small reason I am happy to shift some $ from C to BAC)

 

I follow http://www.calculatedriskblog.com blog for to stay current on economic developments in the US. I would like to follow the European economy a little closer. Are you aware of a similar blog or website that covers Europe from an economic perspective?

 

My bank weightings are now 50% C and 50% BAC. C has had a great run since Jan 1 and BAC has been weaker due to the interest rate outlook and lack of tax reform.  :-)

 

 

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... I follow http://www.calculatedriskblog.com blog for to stay current on economic developments in the US. I would like to follow the European economy a little closer. Are you aware of a similar blog or website that covers Europe from an economic perspective?

 

To answer your question, Viking, I have done a split to the General Discussion forum on that matter, to here, not to clog up this topic.

 

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During the last few years, I've been buying SAN US ADR at 10 [not much, lucky me], and below 4. If that's not lame, then what is?

 

You have mentioned before, that bank investing is event driven, and sentiment driven. It is certainly also macro driven.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I just took a quick glance at it yesterday, I did not have the time to dive into it, Stevie.

 

It looked OK to me at first sight - steady net earnings groth through the last quarters. I expect to study it in detail in the weekend.

 

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I been burried the whole week in the accounts and statements for the court and the IRS for the late MIL. [urgh!]

 

 

 

 

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According to Seeking Alpha, SocGen downgraded C to sell.  Given analyst aversion to sell ratings, it seems somewhat silly to me that C would be a sell.  I can understand a hold rating, or less enthusiasm than at the lower prices of not too long ago.  However, it is trading at just 12x next year's estimated earnings.  I can't see it as warranting a sell rating in today's market.

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I agree with you, Stevie,

 

The thesis will most likely take a couple of years to really play out, ref. what Viking has posted in this topic before.

 

So, please, more sell ratings from analysts, to push the stock down, so that C can buy back more shares for the [same] amount of capital available for buybacks. [: - ) ]

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My read is C earnings were ok. The company has been talking for the past 12 months how the credit card business will be turning the corner in 2H 2017 and this did not happen in Q3 which is disappointing. C management needs to earn investors trust; during their investor day they communicated a pretty clear strategy and now they need to deliver. I will monitor the situation moving forward.

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  • 1 month later...

Tax reform is coming and if it is passed it will be good for US banks. However, it will likely benefit some US banks more than others. For C tax reform will be a benefit; however, it there are some negatives given the impact on their deferred tax asset. Below is a link to an article that provides a good overview. I have been shifting into BAC the last couple of months for four reasons:

1.) the stock is cheap

2.) their results have been solid

3.) they benefit more from higher interest rates

4.) benefits from tax reform are clear and large

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2017/11/22/citigroup-ready-for-sharp-earnings-hit-if-tax-cuts-and-jobs-bill-passes/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#21f708bd2794

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Guest notorious546

Tax reform is coming and if it is passed it will be good for US banks. However, it will likely benefit some US banks more than others. For C tax reform will be a benefit; however, it there are some negatives given the impact on their deferred tax asset. Below is a link to an article that provides a good overview. I have been shifting into BAC the last couple of months for four reasons:

1.) the stock is cheap

2.) their results have been solid

3.) they benefit more from higher interest rates

4.) benefits from tax reform are clear and large

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2017/11/22/citigroup-ready-for-sharp-earnings-hit-if-tax-cuts-and-jobs-bill-passes/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#21f708bd2794

 

Tax doesn't benefit them as much as peers given the global exposure

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Notorious, good point. Specific to tax reform (if it passes), C will benefit. However, there will be lots of puts and takes. The deferred tax assets will have to be written down. There will be a one time non cash charge to earnings. Tangible common equity will fall. Afterwards the business will be simpler and easier to understand. Is all of this understood and properly discounted by Mr Market? No idea. This is one reason what I am happy owning BAC in the short term until more clarity is available regarding what happens regarding tax reform.

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Notorious, good point. Specific to tax reform (if it passes), C will benefit. However, there will be lots of puts and takes. The deferred tax assets will have to be written down. There will be a one time non cash charge to earnings. Tangible common equity will fall. Afterwards the business will be simpler and easier to understand. Is all of this understood and properly discounted by Mr Market? No idea. This is one reason what I am happy owning BAC in the short term until more clarity is available regarding what happens regarding tax reform.

 

Awesome post, Viking. Thank you. Everything cut so sharp/clean and to the bone.

 

Tax reform is coming and if it is passed it will be good for US banks. However, it will likely benefit some US banks more than others. For C tax reform will be a benefit; however, it there are some negatives given the impact on their deferred tax asset. Below is a link to an article that provides a good overview. I have been shifting into BAC the last couple of months for four reasons:

1.) the stock is cheap

2.) their results have been solid

3.) they benefit more from higher interest rates

4.) benefits from tax reform are clear and large

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2017/11/22/citigroup-ready-for-sharp-earnings-hit-if-tax-cuts-and-jobs-bill-passes/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#21f708bd2794

 

Tax doesn't benefit them as much as peers given the global exposure

 

I'm not totally sure you've got this totally right, Notorious,

 

To me, shooting from the hip here, you have to distinguish between DTAs and FTCs [Foreign Tax Credits] in the C subs abroad.

 

Anyway, time for me to do some serious work on this tomorrow, and to report back here.

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I apologize for double posting here.

 

Attached is the market price development for the major 4 US banks since CCAR Announcement in June. The market for C does not seem to repond to what Viking has been posting in this topic with regard to C, in the short run [the market putting C, BAC and JPM basically in one basket [, while they are alone with regard to tax accounting materially different]].

C_vs_peers_-_Yahoo_Finance_-_20171203.thumb.PNG.598aaef821dcbd83e05ce48e0a499111.PNG

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  • 4 weeks later...

Notorious, good point. Specific to tax reform (if it passes), C will benefit. However, there will be lots of puts and takes. The deferred tax assets will have to be written down. There will be a one time non cash charge to earnings. Tangible common equity will fall. Afterwards the business will be simpler and easier to understand. Is all of this understood and properly discounted by Mr Market? No idea. This is one reason what I am happy owning BAC in the short term until more clarity is available regarding what happens regarding tax reform.

 

Here I have to go back to Vikings post of end November 2017.

 

I just have to say: Great move by Viking to roll the C position into BAC some time ago [i think it was about two months ago, ref. what Viking has posted in the BAC topic.]

 

Attached is a follow up till today about C vs. peers with regard to market price.

 

From SA : IP Banking Research [May 29, 2017]: Citigroup CCAR: U.S. Tax Reform And Dividend Vs. Buyback Question:

 

Not all TBVs are created equal

 

Most investors in Citi repeat the mantra that it is clearly a very cheap stock as it is trading below tangible book value (TBV) and at lower multiples compared to peers.

 

Well, that story is somewhat more elaborate, for Citi, primarily due to deferred tax assets (DTAs) included in its TBV. It is sizable and stands at $47 billion ($40 billion of which are Federal DTAs) at the end of 2016. This is a unique characteristic for Citi and as such, from an investor's perspective, one should really adjust its TBV to take the DTA into account and enable like-for-like comparison with peers.

 

One thing to understand about DTAs, as their name suggests, is that they are future offsets against tax payable - however, Citi gets to recognize these upfront at face value currently - even though, utilization will not occur for a very long time. As such, the first logical downward adjustment to TBV would be to net present value its carrying value (I would use cost of capital as a reasonable discount proxy). Furthermore, as some of the DTAs have an expiry date - there is a risk that Citi would not be able to fully utilize these (so investors should factor that in too). Finally, the proposed tax reform will likely prescribe a partial write-off of the DTA as well, which is a near-term risk. Citi's CFO described the potential impact in the Q4'2016 earnings call:

 

"we end the year with about $47 billion of Deferred Tax Assets. And within that, there's about $40 billion that are really U.S. Federal DTAs. Within that $40 billion, there's about $3 billion of NOLs, which have got a 20-year life, and there's $14 billion now of foreign tax credits that again generally have a 10-year life. So that leaves $23 billion that really comes about as a result of timing differences, and, therefore, have no specific time use or limitation.....if we now dropped to a 25% tax rate with a territorial system, we'd end up with still no reduction to our territorial - I'm sorry - combined with a territorial system the P&L hit would be about $12 billion.... Within that, again, our belief is that we continue to expect foreign tax credits (NASDAQ:FTC) carry-forwards to continue to exist post tax reform. And under the law, FTC carry-forwards can be used because there's a provision in the law that allows 50% of domestic income to be treated as foreign income. So that's in the law. So again, with a 25% tax rate and a territorial system, we don't see any hit to our ability to use FTCs."

 

The assumptions above by the CFO may prove to be somewhat bullish - for example, if the corporate tax rate is lowered to 15% or any further changes to the interaction between a territorial tax system and FTC rules - then the impact will be somewhat more pronounced than a $12 billion write-down to the P&L.

 

The analysis above can be best illustrated by the numbers - Citi's tangible book value is approximately $182 billion as of Q1`2017 whereas its market cap is ~170 billion (so essentially trading below tangible book value). If we adjust for the DTA as per above, for arguments' case, let us assume a $25 billion write-down - then we are essentially arriving at an adjusted TBV of $157 billion. In other words, an adjusted valuation of ~1.1x adjusted TBV.

 

It is worth noting that the other large U.S. banks do not carry a material DTA in their books. Importantly, all these changes do not mean Citi will pay any more tax than otherwise expected - but it does impact the relative value of Citi shares versus its peers.

 

Here is what I will do: On the first trading day of 2018, I'll sell the whole C position in all accounts across the family members, getting out on the sideline. This to keep things simple. A part of the C position across family accounts are in taxable accounts [taxation based on realised gains], the rest in tax deferred accounts [taxed YoY by 15.3 percent based on MtM]. Thereby pushing the taxation of the gain [so far] forward one year, for taxable accounts.

 

C TCE 2017Q3 : USD 181,256 B [2017Q3 reporting, p. 28].

C DTA & FTC year end 2016: USD 46,700 B [2016YE reporting, p. 176]

 

So, a non-cash hit of the size of [uSD 46,700 B * [[35% - 21%]/35%] ~ USD 18,680 B must be expected for 2017Q4, and thereby the whole 2017, to accounting earnings after tax, and YE2017 TCE [No nitpicking here, most likely the calculation here is an overestimation, for various reasons].

 

That's acually a lot.

 

2017Q4 and 2017YE is planned to be out on January 16, 2018, 10:00 AM ET.

 

I plan after that moment to buy back into the stock again, hopefully to get more shares, for the same amount of cash.

 

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Thoughts?

 

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Edit 30 December, 2017: Fixed new US corporation tax rate. [*blush*]

C_vs_peers_-_Yahoo_Finance_-_20171228.thumb.PNG.f9f6e08ebaf027e0958f123a6bdf6757.PNG

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John, good luck with your trade. I find it is very difficult to predict/time how a stock will trade in the short run. It is especially difficult at year end and tax reform adds another layer of complexity this year.

 

The risk with your strategy is if bank stocks go higher after you sell and before you buy back.

 

In mid Dec i sold a chunk of my BAC (went from crazy overweight to overweight). A couple of days later I bought it all back (at a slightly higher price :-) as I expect earnings per share to be much higher in 12 months and I decided I was getting too cute (hoping to be able to buy back stock at a later date at a lower price). We will have much more information once banks report Q1 earnings starting in mid Jan; I am very interested to know if tax reform has been priced into share prices yet. I don’t think it has been fully priced in yet as analysts have only just started releasing reports of the impact of tax reform and few have updated their 2018 earnings estimates; as earnings estimates get increased I expect the shares will rally.

 

As I have said previously, I am very lucky in that pretty much all of my assets are in tax protected accounts (I do not get taxed when I sell stocks and realize gains). This greatly simplifies what I need to think about.

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So just to the clarify, after the DTA write-down, the shares will trade at a higher P/BV because BV has declined.

 

But at the same time, ROE would be higher.. (maybe justifying a higher P/BV?)

 

Meanwhile P/E is about the same, or maybe lower, since future taxes are lower driving normalized earnings higher. Isn't this a positive development?

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John, good luck with your trade. I find it is very difficult to predict/time how a stock will trade in the short run. It is especially difficult at year end and tax reform adds another layer of complexity this year.

 

The risk with your strategy is if bank stocks go higher after you sell and before you buy back.

 

In mid Dec i sold a chunk of my BAC (went from crazy overweight to overweight). A couple of days later I bought it all back (at a slightly higher price :-) as I expect earnings per share to be much higher in 12 months and I decided I was getting too cute (hoping to be able to buy back stock at a later date at a lower price). We will have much more information once banks report Q1 earnings starting in mid Jan; I am very interested to know if tax reform has been priced into share prices yet. I don’t think it has been fully priced in yet as analysts have only just started releasing reports of the impact of tax reform and few have updated their 2018 earnings estimates; as earnings estimates get increased I expect the shares will rally.

 

As I have said previously, I am very lucky in that pretty much all of my assets are in tax protected accounts (I do not get taxed when I sell stocks and realize gains). This greatly simplifies what I need to think about.

 

Thank you for your input here, Viking,

 

As always, very much appreciated. [: - ) ] Perhaps I should consider rolling into BAC in stead of standing on the sideline here in the first two weeks of 2018. I have a few days still to think about that alternative. And yes, it's all speculative, so no matter how it plays out, I deserve the outcome. [ : - ) ]

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mcliu, tax reform will be a net positive for Citi. Just not as good as the other big US banks.

 

C said tax reform will likely result in a $20 billion hit when they report Q4 earnings in a couple of weeks:

1.) DTA = $16-$17 billion

2.) deemed repatriation = $3-4 billion

 

C also said this will be a non cash charge and their regulatory capital may be impacted only in a small way. They do not expect this charge to reduce their planned $60 billion return of capital plan as part of CCAR in 2017-2019.

 

After the charge, book value will fall and tangible book value will fall. However, given the lower tax rate of 21% (on US earnings) C will be paying less taxes moving forward which will increase total earnings and earnings per share; I have read that their effective tax rate will fall from 31% to 25% (not sure how accurate this is). Yes, C should report a higher ROE and ROTCE.

 

There are two negatives that I see for C:

1.) $16-$17 billion writedown of DTA that could have been used in future years is a clear loss for shareholders.

2.) how much of DTA they will be able to utilize each year post tax reform. This is a potential loss (until we learn the correct number). In the past couple of years C has guided that they should be able to utilize about $2 billion each year of their DTA. So if C had net earnings of $14 billion they really has ‘cash’ earnings of $16 billion; the DTA provided a $2 billion per year benefit for shareholders. With tax reform we will have to hear from C how much of their DTA they will be able to harvest each year moving forward; if it is less than $2 billion then this will offset some of the benefit of lower taxes paid.

 

For all the big banks, with tax reform there are going to be lots of puts and takes. Until we get Q4 reports and listen to the conference calls it is going to be difficult to be precise in how it will all shake out for each institution. I am surprised that there is not more information available for investors to help them understand the impact of tax reform on the big bank stocks. Either analysts are waiting for management to provide more information or they are only sharing their results with top clients first.

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mcliu, tax reform will be a net positive for Citi. Just not as good as the other big US banks.

 

C said tax reform will likely result in a $20 billion hit when they report Q4 earnings in a couple of weeks:

1.) DTA = $16-$17 billion

2.) deemed repatriation = $3-4 billion

 

C also said this will be a non cash charge and their regulatory capital may be impacted only in a small way. They do not expect this charge to reduce their planned $60 billion return of capital plan as part of CCAR in 2017-2019.

 

After the charge, book value will fall and tangible book value will fall. However, given the lower tax rate of 21% (on US earnings) C will be paying less taxes moving forward which will increase total earnings and earnings per share; I have read that their effective tax rate will fall from 31% to 25% (not sure how accurate this is). Yes, C should report a higher ROE and ROTCE.

 

There are two negatives that I see for C:

1.) $16-$17 billion writedown of DTA that could have been used in future years is a clear loss for shareholders.

2.) how much of DTA they will be able to utilize each year post tax reform. This is a potential loss (until we learn the correct number). In the past couple of years C has guided that they should be able to utilize about $2 billion each year of their DTA. So if C had net earnings of $14 billion they really has ‘cash’ earnings of $16 billion; the DTA provided a $2 billion per year benefit for shareholders. With tax reform we will have to hear from C how much of their DTA they will be able to harvest each year moving forward; if it is less than $2 billion then this will offset some of the benefit of lower taxes paid.

 

For all the big banks, with tax reform there are going to be lots of puts and takes. Until we get Q4 reports and listen to the conference calls it is going to be difficult to be precise in how it will all shake out for each institution. I am surprised that there is not more information available for investors to help them understand the impact of tax reform on the big bank stocks. Either analysts are waiting for management to provide more information or they are only sharing their results with top clients first.

 

You misunderstand how Deferred Tax Assets work. It's the economic value of them. The same amount of pretax earnings are protected. The major change was that you can no longer offset 100% of earnings. It is limited to 80% I believe in the new tax law.

 

i.e.

 

before = $1 million pretax * 35% = $350,000 tax

after = $1 million pretax 8 21% = $210,000 tax

 

Difference of $140,000 is the simplified calculation to write down on the DTA.  The pretax earnings are the same.

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Junto, I think my explanation above was worded poorly. C is able grow regulatory capital in two ways: net earnings and by utilizing their DTA. (My view is regulatory capital is what really matters when looking at C due to the very large DTA they have.) With tax reform, C effective tax rate will be falling so net earnings will be higher. In the past they have guided to harvest about $2 billion per year from their DTA; post tax reform are you saying they will continue to harvest the same $2 billion?

 

My point is if they are only able to harvest $1.7 billion per year post tax reform from their DTA then investors are worse off on this point (down from $2 billion).

 

When you add all the puts and takes, my read is tax reform is good for C; just not as good as the big US banks who have more business in the US. We will all have much better information in about two weeks.

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Between Chistmas and New Year I decided not to trade C over the 2017Q4/2017YE earnings release. I'm trying not to speculate and not to stray from my C thesis from June 2017.

 

So just to the clarify, after the DTA write-down, the shares will trade at a higher P/BV because BV has declined.

 

But at the same time, ROE would be higher.. (maybe justifying a higher P/BV?)

 

Meanwhile P/E is about the same, or maybe lower, since future taxes are lower driving normalized earnings higher. Isn't this a positive development?

 

Yes, mcliu. My thesis about and approach to looking at C is actually to back out the DTAs from both the income statement and the balance sheet, and then recalculate ROA, ROE & P/E, and then C actually looks very different - better than reported [not P/B though] - compared to its peers on those metrics.

 

It is all about principle for income & expense accounting - accrual accounting or accounting based realized tax savings from the DTAs - for C.

 

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At least partly related - about Deutsche Bank:

 

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank Trading slump Rachets Up Pressure on CEO Cryan

 

From the article:

 

...Annual Loss

 

The bank, in a statement on Friday, also said that it will probably record a third consecustive annual loss in 2017 after accounting for the decreased value of its deferred tax assets in the U.S., a credit it can use to lower future tax payments. Deutsche Bank will take a charge of 1.5 billion Euros ($1.8 billion) in the final three months to account for the legal change. ...

 

... Tax Cut

 

The revaluation of the bank's deferred tax assets became necessary after U.S. President Donald Trump decided to cut the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 percent. Other banks including Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse Group AG and Bank of America Corp. have all reported that the tax reform require them to write down their assets.

 

The writedown will have a 10 basis-point impact on Deutsche Bank's regulatory capital situation, the bank said.Its common equity tier 1 ratio, a key metric of financial strength, stood at 13.8 percent at the end of the third quarter. The Bank will have a small full-year-after-tax loss because of the change, it said. ...

 

DB tanked 5.16 percent Friday. Just to comfort myself, the article is about severe operational issues in the DB Investment Bank also.

 

Bloomberg video: Deutsche Bank to Take 1.8 billion hit on US tax.

 

 

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Bloomberg [December 26, 2017]: Citigroup Mike Corbat Has Promises To Keep.

 

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From Snowball, p. 542, Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett standing looking out over the Salomon trading floor:

 

... Munger crossed his arms and turned to Buffett. "So, Warren," he said, "You really want to invest in this, huh?"

Buffett stood, gazing out through the haze over the pandemonium that he was about to buy. "Mmmm-hmmmm," he said, after a long pause.

 

I suppose the weird sounds coming from me right now might hear similar.

 

I will with certainty learn something from this. Now I will just buy more C, if it tanks seriously. I haven't decided how much to buy.

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Today, I have tried to gather all my thoughts about C and its DTAs, and all the derived consequenses, as per a request from a fellow board member, but I've been distracted in my thoughts during the day. Tomorrow looks like a fairly busy day for me, however I expect to post my thoughts late tomorrow evening, my local time, by replacing the text in this topic.

 

[One distraction: Extremely good weather here - for the time of the year, calling for a long walk! [ : - ) ], - another one being the BAC DTAs!]

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Yes, mcliu. My thesis about and approach to looking at C is actually to back out the DTAs from both the income statement and the balance sheet, and then recalculate ROA, ROE & P/E, and then C actually looks very different - better than reported [not P/B though] - compared to its peers on those metrics.

 

It is all about principle for income & expense accounting - accrual accounting or accounting based realized tax savings from the DTAs - for C. ...

 

Attached, - with material delay - for which I apologize, are my calculations for C metrics, if one try to back out the C DTAs of the C performance metrics.

 

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The calculations are as such fairly easy to do, however it's cumbersome to dig out the numbers, because C reporting is so vast. The really hard part is to "mentally adjust" accordingly - by numbers logic - on your view of C.

 

Mentally, one have to adjust - by generating own variant perception - by actually ditching existing reporting, and then do the alternative calculations. I have to say, that this mental excercise was incredible hard for me to do in June 2017, pre CCAR.

 

In short, I haven't ever earlier allocated capital to an investment, where I've had another view on financial reporting for the investment.

 

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Because of the contents of C 10-Qs [lack of tax information], it's not possible to do a quarterly update, based on the 2017 C 10-Qs.

C_-_Reported_vs_DTA-adjusted_metrics_2016_-_20180111.xlsx

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