alertmeipp Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 CC Transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1950581-citigroups-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Their expectation is 90-110 bps for roa by 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawks Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Added to my position today. Thanks Mr. Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Time for More Competitiveness at Citigroup http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/time-for-more-competitiveness-at-citigroup/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Breakingviews&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm early like last year but almost 9 percent discount to tangible book. Last year they earned 8 percent on tangible book. Buying here is a 10 percent return. Last year fed announced on jan 28th with dates for ccar. The china news seems to have caused mr market to become very despondent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Started my first position. Good upside from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawks Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Added to my position again today. Also JPM. Thanks Mr. Market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Michael Corbat, CEO, on Bloomberg. interview http://www.bloomberg.com/video/citigroup-ceo-says-u-s-taper-is-not-tightening-nxA5lGr3TLWq8DeshtOUHg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I really don't know if the international breadth is going to be a competitive advantage or drag for citi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I really don't know if the international breadth is going to be a competitive advantage or drag for citi... With the emerging market currencies dropping and rest of world slowing. hopefully this is just a bump in the road. But with the higher interest rates in emerging world, I'm sure their margins are a lot better. Of course. loan quality is always important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm trying to figure out if I'm wrong. By the end of 2015 management expects 90-110 roa which equals about 5.60 a share to 7 a share, not counting buybacks or upside of 36 percent to 70 percent. Bac said by end of 2016 for roa of 1 percent and tangible 14 return. Lets say bac hits 2 a share a year early by end of 2015 to simplify. The upside on a 12 multiple is 24 a share or 45 percent. If citi only hits 90 roa at the low end next year bac is a better bet but if citi hits 1 or 110 citi is better. Last concern of mine is if citi deserves a lower multiple than bac because of higher risk, ie emerging markets. With global growth projected to increase I would think multiple roughly the same but if global growth declines maybe multiple slightly lower for citi. New earnings estimates after the bad miss is 5 bucks a share for this year. Bac is 1.33. Which means bac is trading at 12.4 and citi is 9.8. I know that doesn't include DTA for bac but citi has DTA as well, although I have to double check the level. I maybe missing something but c looks like it has more upside this year than bac unless global growth declines. I'm not sure it will based on Argentina news today and china yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anyone please feel free to argue bac is a better bet from here or citi should trade lower to warrant a buy, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I mean the news so far doesn't indicate a decline in global growth, at least do far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think the main disadvantage for C is the lack of attractive warrants, so the attractive leverage just isn't there, leaving the investment as mostly with common. Also, you may not want to put more than a 10x multiple, just to be conservative (it seems like your 36-70% range is using higher than 10x?). All that being said, Citi common seems pretty good. The returns are no longer out of the park though, unless we put some higher multiples on the banks in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 "I think the main disadvantage for C is the lack of attractive warrants, so the attractive leverage just isn't there, leaving the investment as mostly with common. Also, you may not want to put more than a 10x multiple, just to be conservative (it seems like your 36-70% range is using higher than 10x?). All that being said, Citi common seems pretty good. The returns are no longer out of the park though, unless we put some higher multiples on the banks in general. " Sorry, I left out that I used a 12x multiple. I think this is reasonable as they should start being able to start buying back a decent amount of stock in a couple of months. They earned 8 percent tangible last year and projected to earn 9 percent this year. I don't understand a 12 percent discount to tangible book when it's already earning 9 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anyone please feel free to argue bac is a better bet from here or citi should trade lower to warrant a buy, thanks. I think C is almost as attractive as BAC. I peg 2015 earnings at $5.5 to $6.5 as well from a bottom up segment by segment approach. So it should be anywhere from $60 to $75 at a 11 multiple. BAC is a bit more attractive as 1. C is having trouble using up the DTAs. So cash earnings would be higher as a proportion of pre-tax income at BAC compared to C. I suspect that at least a portion of the DTA's might have to be written down or atleast not as valuable as it might take quite a long time to realize their value - I did not see any question on conf calls related to this possible because their expiry dates are so far out. 2. At least when Pandit was there I thought BAC had better management. Not sure now. 3. C has has been at the center of every financial crisis in the last 3 decades (3 near deaths in 30 years). Their underwriting is the worst of the big banks - even taking into account the higher credit losses associated with emerging markets. So I would peg their riskiness to be slightly above BAC. So I am looking for a bit more margin of safety at C compared to BAC. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thanks for your comments Vinod. I plan to go back into bac more heavily after ccar. We'll see which one appreciates more between now and mid march. 49.33 versus 16.45. Normally I would look out several years but the market is so inefficient around ccar. You would think three years in a row we wouldn't see a pop but I think it'll happen again particularly after this big drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I also like the fact tangible book should go up on average 1.25 a quarter. Three months from now if the price is still the same it's almost at 15 percent discount to tangible book and growing each quarter combined with slowly shrinking share count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 "1. C is having trouble using up the DTAs. So cash earnings would be higher as a proportion of pre-tax income at BAC compared to C. I suspect that at least a portion of the DTA's might have to be written down or atleast not as valuable as it might take quite a long time to realize their value - I did not see any question on conf calls related to this possible because their expiry dates are so far out." Vinod, I read that about 60 percent of their dtas won't ever expire. They used 2.6 billion last year, about 3 billion this year and about 4 billion next year. They should be getting roughly a dollar a share this year, next year and going forward from DTA. Bac is trading about 12x earnings this year. c is trading at 9.7x. If we include the 3 billion of DTA this year they will use plus the 5 bucks a share the company is estimated to earn, the stock should be at 60 right now, using a 10x multiple. I know jp is trading 9-10x earnings but jp doesn't have the DTA nor does it have the big increase in earnings over the next couple of years, although I think jp is cheap as well, just not as cheap. UBS analyst wrote in oct they should be approved for 25 cents a share dividend plus 6 billion buyback. In the meantime, it gets cheaper every day it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Bac is trading about 12x earnings this year. c is trading at 9.7x. Just one of many years, and of no particular importance relative to the future years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Bac is trading about 12x earnings this year. c is trading at 9.7x. Just one of many years, and of no particular importance relative to the future years. Emerging markets is in focus, in a bad way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 "1. C is having trouble using up the DTAs. So cash earnings would be higher as a proportion of pre-tax income at BAC compared to C. I suspect that at least a portion of the DTA's might have to be written down or atleast not as valuable as it might take quite a long time to realize their value - I did not see any question on conf calls related to this possible because their expiry dates are so far out." Vinod, I read that about 60 percent of their dtas won't ever expire. They used 2.6 billion last year, about 3 billion this year and about 4 billion next year. They should be getting roughly a dollar a share this year, next year and going forward from DTA. Bac is trading about 12x earnings this year. c is trading at 9.7x. If we include the 3 billion of DTA this year they will use plus the 5 bucks a share the company is estimated to earn, the stock should be at 60 right now, using a 10x multiple. I know jp is trading 9-10x earnings but jp doesn't have the DTA nor does it have the big increase in earnings over the next couple of years, although I think jp is cheap as well, just not as cheap. UBS analyst wrote in oct they should be approved for 25 cents a share dividend plus 6 billion buyback. In the meantime, it gets cheaper every day it seems. Let us hope it gets more cheaper. In the 10-K I see about $40 billion in DTA's expiring at various dates through about 2030. But the main issue is how much C would be able to use up in the immediate future. C has been adding to the DTA's through 2012 and 2013 has been the first year when they actually used up some. Where did you get the estimate for the amount of DTA's that would be used up in 2014 and 2015? I have not yet looked at the recent quarter conf call. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've heard some people say that the risk of not being able to use the DTAs is overblown for a large financial company like Citi, because they can do some financial engineering to realize some "gains" and effectively extend the DTAs if they are at risk of expiring. Does anybody who understands this better know if this is actually the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I just initiated a small starter position at $48.15. It is currently 13% below TBV and 34% below book value. CCAR results are just around the corner and I cannot wait for C to continue to repurchase a larger amount of their stock under TBV!!! Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18.73% below TBV and this stock is starting to look VERY interesting. I am almost reaching a point to double my initial position in this company but my only drawback is I have to convert Canadian dollars to USD and the exchange rate is currently not in my favour. Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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