jturro Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 RBC Capital Markets has increased its valuation of Yahoo based on an increase of the valuation of a potential Alibaba IPO ($150b). Yahoo is up today 2.8% and around 20% in the last 30 days. That's a lot and it has happened with almost no news being reported during that 30 days period. Has any of you looked at Alibaba's figures in depth? It would be very interesting to see whether the 150B valuation is (sort of) realistic or is based on the multiples we see with other similar companies (Amazon, Facebook, etc). http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/12/09/yahoo-alibaba-stake-now-worth-35b-says-rbc/?mod=BOLBlog&source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turar Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Good profile on Mayer at Yahoo, in case some have missed it: http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2014/01/marissa-mayer-yahoo-google Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Boy, some really good work at Yahoo: http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/03/yahoo-sports-gets-ios-7-redesign-awesome-gif-creation-tool-for-sharing-big-4-sports-moments/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Some progress at Yahoo: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-07/yahoo-s-mayer-unveils-content-advertising-tools-in-revenue-push.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jturro Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 They are definitely doing lots of changes at Yahoo. They've launched lots of new products, refreshed old ones and acquired several companies. You can't blame them for not trying hard enough... However, all the efforts have not yet had a positive effect on their revenues and net income (coming from operations). All turnaround efforts take time but they are in a very competitive industry so it's very difficult to tell what the outcome will be. In any case, I'm willing to give them one more year (I own Yahoo shares) to show promising results... especially since this turnaround play comes with a big safety net called Alibaba. Without the safety net I'm not sure I would still own Yahoo shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 They are definitely doing lots of changes at Yahoo. They've launched lots of new products, refreshed old ones and acquired several companies. You can't blame them for not trying hard enough... However, all the efforts have not yet had a positive effect on their revenues and net income (coming from operations). All turnaround efforts take time but they are in a very competitive industry so it's very difficult to tell what the outcome will be. In any case, I'm willing to give them one more year (I own Yahoo shares) to show promising results... especially since this turnaround play comes with a big safety net called Alibaba. Without the safety net I'm not sure I would still own Yahoo shares. There are two separate issues: fixing products and fixing monetization of products. There has been a lot of activity on the former but not the latter. By the looks of it, she's got some work to do in that front: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-15/yahoo-chief-operating-officer-de-castro-to-leave-web-portal.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 People are just realizing Y is going to have trouble monetizing products? I guess when the stock price goes up, all concerns are soothed...it is known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 People are just realizing Y is going to have trouble monetizing products? I guess when the stock price goes up, all concerns are soothed...it is known. Not having to ship a product gives you the luxury of ignoring how the world really works. Progress typically comes with two steps forward, one step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 There will be no step forward. These Google executives are from a firm whose powerful cash cow of search advertising allows them a great platform to do other things. Display advertising is more difficult, and without Google's backing, they're going to look very clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 People that have made money in Yahoo from the high $20's to up here have to realize one thing: it is mostly if not all about Amazon.com stock price meteoric rise. When the story began, YHOO was trading in the low teens, could not get rid of Jerry Yang and most net asset value calculations ended up around $22. AMZN back then was in the $200 range and now is almost at $400. There is still little to no improvement in core Yahoo financials despite Marissa's arrival. While she is a good young looking CEO and seems to be energizing her organization, it is mostly because of Alibaba's "perceived" IPO value that Yahoo stock price is up. The word perceived is important since the company is not IPO'd yet and is based solely on what people believe it will trade at vs other internet stocks. Hence the large importance of AMZN revaluation from sky high levels to outside the solar system levels. Maybe it is moving outside the galaxy next... Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There will be no step forward. These Google executives are from a firm whose powerful cash cow of search advertising allows them a great platform to do other things. Display advertising is more difficult, and without Google's backing, they're going to look very clueless. Well, this will make you very happy then: http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/16/confirmed-yahoos-editor-in-chief-is-out/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What do you guys think Alibaba worth? I see #s ranging from 120b - 200b. So, at low end, you are paying 7billion for rest of YHOO, at high end, -10 billions... Is that the right way to looking at it? If Yahoo sells half of their stake, how much taxes they will need to pay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jturro Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 The valuation guru Aswath Damodaran has recently done valuations of Alibaba and Yahoo. Based on those valuations he has decided to put his money where his mouth is. Pretty interesting and balanced analysis: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.se/2014/05/yahoo-puzzle-mystery-and-enigma.html http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.nl/2014/05/alibaba-china-story-with-profitable.html His valuation of Alibaba is 146b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 What do you guys think Alibaba worth? I see #s ranging from 120b - 200b. So, at low end, you are paying 7billion for rest of YHOO, at high end, -10 billions... Is that the right way to looking at it? If Yahoo sells half of their stake, how much taxes they will need to pay? The question is what Yahoo would do with the cash? Buyback stocks vs buying another tumblr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I'm growing more bullish on Alibaba's business and YHOO's valuation by the day. Two things: 1. I've had an epiphany about the value of thinking really long term over the past month or so. I really think this is key to Buffett's brilliance. I'm not talking longer term as in longer than the 3-month "Street" time horizons, I'm talking 10, 15, 20, 40 years. Time goes by so fast, especially in the investment business, and companies become SO MUCH more valuable over time (especially wonderful businesses). Why would Young Buffett (if he knew what he knows now) ever sell Geico after he purchased in the 1950s? Why ever sell American Express after the Salad Oil scandal? These are just incredibly wonderful companies that not only compound capital at incredible rates of return over DECADES, they return massive amounts of cash in the process....So what are the Geico's and AXP's of today? - I'd argue Visa and Mastercard are akin to Geico and AXP back then, with literally decades of massive growth ahead of them. Three tailwinds: general spending global spending growth, cash to plastic conversion and the network effect. - Alibaba? The tailwinds are enormous, and China's economic development is not as far along as the US was in the 50's and 60's. I just don't think your time horizon can be long enough with this thing. 2. Is anyone talking about a 100% tax-free spin of Alibaba once it lists in the US? Other than trying to sell its remaining Alibaba stake in order to generate cash for acquisitions, there is no reason why YHOO should not spin off its stake. A tax-free spin versus a sale at a 30% tax rate is worth $12 per YHOO share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 This is pretty interesting. I was reading reddit's investing subforum (I have no life) and one guy mentioned yahoo as a nifty play on Alibaba. Essentially, Yahoo's stake is worth approx $30bil (.225*130bil), and yahoo japan's stake is worth about $11bil. Yahoo's market cap is $38bil so you get paid $3bil (approx $3/share) to own the rest of the business, $1-$1.2ps NI. Put a 12multiple on it and you have a relatively safe 40-50% upside that should realize quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Softbank is a better play on Alibaba. Allthough I think if you want a similar market place business like that I would look at Schibsted. Cheaper and also a huge growth runway. And amazing management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 well if yahoo sells Alibaba they get hit by taxes. With softbank, you get the remaining part for a bigger discount. Allthough Softbank is not selling anything of Alibaba once it goes public. As for Schibsted, they are basicly crushing Ebay in various countries (asia and Europe). And if you model EBITDA in the future yo uwould find out they are pretty cheap and also have a huge runway of growth ahead of them. And most of their sites do not seem to be monetized yet and focus mostly on growing as much as possible. Probably same kind of story as with Alibaba that is also not yet fully monetized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Alibaba ipo will value Alibaba at $160 billion. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-05/alibaba-seeks-21-1-billion-in-record-breaking-u-s-ipo-3-.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I hope BABA only jump 20% or less on the first day. I don't think I will get any allocations from the IPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I hope BABA only jump 20% or less on the first day. I don't think I will get any allocations from the IPO. Reading the comments on some articles about the IPO i am under the impression that nobody really wants the shares or likes the company in the US. So with a bit luck we have a lot of time to buy this company cheap. Without the relationship to Softbank i would be a lot more sceptical about book cooking for the IPO, too. On the topic of BABA vs. Softbank i think its a bit of higher growth vs. higher margin of safety. The rest of Softbank is mainly a telecom provider (Sprint/Softbank mobile) that operates in heavy price competition. I am not sure at the moment if i want to own that, the discount to NAV is around 20-25% at the moment when i did the calculation right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Biggest ipo in history, all time high, september :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Results are in: Terry Semel is Yahoo's best CEO. http://media.bizj.us/view/img/609981/marissa-mayer*304.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm just not sure what catalyst for growth Yahoo has without Alibaba. They'll have cash to make acquisitions, but they have a bad track record in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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