FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)

[jose]

Pretty high volume for FTP common, but small potatoes for most funds. It would just take one medium size fund to decide to get out of its smaller positions for tax  purposes to drive down the price like so. 

 

Good times if you are trying to increase your position.

[alertmeipp]

We pretty much have weeks of volumes in days.

[Liberty]

High volumes continue, but this time pushing in the other direction.

 

Found on SH (sorry about the formatting):

 

FROM RBC THIS MORNING

 

Pulp – NBSK markets looking better in 2014 than we previously

thought

 

Near-Term Strength Continues for Pulp � Global softwood pulp markets continue to hold up better

than we expected as softwood inventories (24 days in October) remain below balanced levels (~30 days),

while Ilim continues to struggle in ramping up its new 720K tpy line in Bratsk, Russia. While we still expect

new BEK supermills starting up in the next few months in LatAm to impact softwood (through increased

substitution to hardwood), these mill start-ups continue to experience delays while underlying demand

growth continues.

Raising our 2014 softwood pulp price assumptions � Raising NA NBSK list FY14 from $935/tonne

to $960. Maintaining FY15 and FY16 at $935. Prices were $990/tonne in November (+$120 this year)

and Canfor Pulp has announced a global $20 increase for December�while we could see partial

implementation in China (supported by Ilim's $10 initiative in December), Sodra's announcement for flat

prices in Europe, and Domtar and Resolute's similar move in North America, likely sets the tone for those

regions. We have left our annual NA NBHK list price forecasts for 2014�16 unchanged at $835/tonne

[alertmeipp]

We only need a 50 percent run to get to the post q price.  How sad

[txitxo]

absolutely amazing how the stock Drops lower and lower.

 

  I've worked my way through most of the thread. Fascinating lesson on investing psychology. It is amazing how, despite things having kept neutral, or even improved from the material point of view (co-gen, ramp-up, Landquart) the change in the "story" and the expectations (which were always written in the air) has sunk the stock price and investor morale. It reminds me of PBG.TO. It seems very unlikely (although of course not impossible) that this stock will go bankrupt, and if it doesn't, the upside from current prices could be very high. I wouldn't buy this for a very concentrated portfolio, but intuitively, the probability-weighted expected return at these prices seems very high.

 

  So as it happened with SHLD in late August, I couldn't control myself and bought a position yesterday. I rationalised it, from a quantitative investing perspective, by saying that this is almost the cheapest stock in the world in terms of P/B with a decent Piotroski score.

[alertmeipp]

One thing went terribly wrong tho dp price

[Liberty]

Never catch a break:

 

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Dec. 5, 2013) - Fortress Paper Ltd. ("Fortress Paper" or the "Company") (TSX:FTP) reports that an incident occurred at its Fortress Specialty Mill (the "FSC Mill") in Thurso, Quebec on December 2, 2013, which the Company initially believed was repairable in the normal course. However, upon further investigation it was determined that the incident was caused by an improper third-party pipe fitting installation on one of the four digesters. As the Company continued the investigation into the root cause of the incident it was revealed that there is a significant crack on a similar pipe connected to another digester. To repair the damaged pipe, the Company has determined that the FSC Mill must be shut down until at least December 10, 2013. During this time, a thorough investigation into the efficacy of certain similar pipe installations at the FSC Mill will also be conducted. Accordingly, the impact of the incident will be at least six days' equivalent of lost production.

 

In order to mitigate the cost of the shutdown, all but essential staff required to perform the investigation and maintain the mill will be sent home during this interim period. The cogeneration facility at the FSC Mill will continue to operate at a reduced rate and produce heat and power for the mill. The Company is also evaluating whether it is able to claim against its insurance policy to cover and limit the losses which result from this incident. The Company intends to provide an update on December 10, 2013.

[jose]

Never catch a break

 

Hahaha.  Business as usual for us FTP owners!

[finetrader]

This is starting to look like amateurism..

[alertmeipp]

Never catch a break

 

Hahaha.  Business as usual for us FTP owners!

 

 

HAHAHA....... :'(

It is so funny, it hurts.

[alertmeipp]

The news by itself is insignificant but this company has a pattern of heavy volume swing followed by a press release.  Fishy to say at least

[enoch01]

Stock should rally.  No mention of bankruptcy in the press release.

[OptsyEagle]

I was so excited when I saw this news release.  I was so hoping for a fire.  A really big one.  Flames shooting through the roof, that kind of thing, with no chance of any asset recovery.  No one hurt of course. 

 

What was that insurance figure we have on Thurso ...$850 million.  I would imagine the stock would start trading around $20 at the open and rise progressively all day as analysts work out the subsequent insurance claim.

 

Your right.  We never catch a break.

[Liberty]

Maybe the Thurso plant is haunted  :-\

[alertmeipp]

Ok we gave back all the gain from yesterday with 20k volume.  Pathetic

[obtuse_investor]

Pathetic response to this news indeed-- Maybe all the outstanding stock has finally made it to the accounts of all the right owners.

[alertmeipp]

I hope all the owners understand this is nothing but a leverage play on dp pricing. Landquart worth some money. But not a x10 factor here

[phil_Buffett]

I hope all the owners understand this is nothing but a leverage play on dp pricing. Landquart worth some money. But not a x10 factor here

 

thats right alertmeipp, but the stock Price is way to much in depri mode. so much fear and Panic the last weeks. way to low in my opinion

[alertmeipp]

I figure lots of shareholders are getting frustrated. . Myself included.  Especially when market is marching higher and you see this kind of stupid news that pretty much kills the bounce.

 

Chad clearly needs better operation team.

 

 

[txitxo]

One thing went terribly wrong tho dp price

 

  The DP prices has always been unpredictable. The only two things you have to look at are a)whether you have a low cost producer (higher cost producers will go out of business) b)whether they can weather the storm, financially speaking, while that happens. Regarding those two aspects, I think they are in a much better position now (except for the 13% tariff) than they were when this thread was started. They have cash, and although they are starting to resemble a factory-based sequel of "The Money Pit", the guys at management don't seem to be idiots and eventually things will work. They are not doing rocket science or neurosurgery, they just have to make sure contractors don't install cracked pipes.

[alertmeipp]

Chad was like a hero and now more look like an emperor with no clothes. He is dead wrong on his thesis so far.

 

I started late on this and my cost basis is way above the current price. I think it was too optimistic then and too pessimistic now

[Guest Quebec]

Found those 2 posts about ZINC & Teck interesting in the context of FTP:

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/zinc-horsehead-holding-corp/msg145068/?topicseen#msg145068

 

We can be standing still producing NBHK and have this big upside once DP rises. The cash hoard is our insurance

[alertmeipp]

Yes, it's easy math, a DP price of $1100 and cost of $750, Thurso will generate 40million EBITDA even with the 13%.

 

And even at $1100, I doubt the Chinese producers will be making any money.

 

At $1300, it's almost 80millions... the EV of this company is ~180m, and some say Landquart itself worth 60-120millions.

 

I hope Chad will finally shut up and let the numbers do the talk. I think analysts and the market think he is a joke. The ramp up is delayed by over a year and counting. The long-term contact and DP floor price are long gone. Merge with Tembec, well, our share price is quickly approaching Tembec's. DP power house and privatization? You see what I mean.

 

He is drawing way too much salary and bonus for the crappy work he has done. But true, ultimately, a low cost commodities producer will do fine. But what's the cost? They don't even publish that anymore because they can't get the plant running properly YET.

 

Pathetic company but I like the price and the cash hoard should at least give me 3 years of runaway. Some days, maybe even the early buyers can make a profit on this.

 

[phil_Buffett]

Yes, it's easy math, a DP price of $1100 and cost of $750, Thurso will generate 40million EBITDA even with the 13%.

 

And even at $1100, I doubt the Chinese producers will be making any money.

 

At $1300, it's almost 80millions... the EV of this company is ~180m, and some say Landquart itself worth 60-120millions.

 

I hope Chad will finally shut up and let the numbers do the talk. I think analysts and the market think he is a joke. The ramp up is delayed by over a year and counting. The long-term contact and DP floor price are long gone. Merge with Tembec, well, our share price is quickly approaching Tembec's. DP power house and privatization? You see what I mean.

 

He is drawing way too much salary and bonus for the crappy work he has done. But true, ultimately, a low cost commodities producer will do fine. But what's the cost? They don't even publish that anymore because they can't get the plant running properly YET.

 

Pathetic company but I like the price and the cash hoard should at least give me 3 years of runaway. Some days, maybe even the early buyers can make a profit on this.

 

 

+1

 

 

[moustachio]

Aren't these tariffs basically there to allow the Chinese to get rid of their cotton stockpiles easier? If so, would there be a fair chance of them dropping the tariffs once the cotton surplus is gone?